Please know that all of the below opinions are just my opinion. Player Comparisons are a mixture of media comparisons and my own based on footage etc.
SO Be Gentle
Based on Today’s draft order, only taking into account:
GC getting a 1st Round compensation pick for Lynch leaving – (pick 3)
Still a little up in the air re. Gaff, Lycett etc.
I’ve tried to cater for bids as well as possible, but I’ve not done the points calculation etc, I’ll get more specific closer to the draft once the picks/trades are better locked in. There are way too many unknowns at this stage still. (I've simply matched these as 'USED')
1: Carlton - SAM WALSH
2: Gold Coast - JACK LUKOSIUS
3: Gold Coast - CONNOR ROZEE
4: St Kilda - IZAK RANKINE
5: Brisbane - MAX KING
6: Fremantle - BEN KING
7: Bulldogs - BAILEY SMITH
(Swans Match bid: NICK BLAKEY)
8: Crows - JACKSON HATELEY
9: Bombers - JYE CALDWELL
10: Port Adelaide - RILEY COLLIER DAWKINS
(Kangaroos Match bid: TARRYN THOMAS)
11: North Melbourne - USED
12: Geelong - IAN HILL
(Bulldogs Match bid: RHYLEE WEST)
(Magpies Match bid: ISAAC QUAYNOR)
13: Sydney - USED
14: GWS - CURTIS TAYLOR
15: Hawks - XAVIER DUURSMA
(Lions Match bid: CONNOR MCFADYEN)
16: Crows - LIAM STOCKER
17: Richmond - JORDAN CLARK
18: Collingwood - USED
19: GC - ED McHENRY
20: Crows - LUKE VALENTE
21: West Coast – SYDNEY STACK
22: Port – BOYD WOODCOCK
23: Lions – USED
24: GWS – ZAK BUTTERS
25: Blues – XAVIER O’HALLARAN
(Magpies Match bid: WILL KELLY)
Magpies passed on Jake Kelly, they shouldn’t pass on his brother – is rated a lot higher and looks fairly well built already for an 18year old. Should match the bid if it comes after 15-20
Player Comparison : Jake Lever
26: Blues – BAILEY WILLIAMS
(Kangaroos Match bid: BAILEY SCOTT)
Not even sure he is going to Kangaroos, in fact he will likely end up at GC or could he be a cat?? Who knows?? But whoever he nominates, mid-late 20’s seems about right for Bailey Scott.
Player Comparison : Ben CUNNINGTON
27: GC – JACK BYTEL
28: Port – LUKE ENGLISH
29: North - USED
30: GC – CHAYCE JONES
31: Sydney – SAM STURT
32: Bombers – JAMES ROWBOTTOM
(GWS Match bid: KIERAN BRIGGS)
(West Coast Match bid: JARROD CAMERON)
33: Hawks – THOMAS BERRY
34: Melbourne - THOMAS SPARROW
35: Tigers - JACOB KOSCHITZKE
36: Sydney - JEZ MCLENNAN
37: West Coast - USED
SO Be Gentle
Based on Today’s draft order, only taking into account:
GC getting a 1st Round compensation pick for Lynch leaving – (pick 3)
Still a little up in the air re. Gaff, Lycett etc.
I’ve tried to cater for bids as well as possible, but I’ve not done the points calculation etc, I’ll get more specific closer to the draft once the picks/trades are better locked in. There are way too many unknowns at this stage still. (I've simply matched these as 'USED')
1: Carlton - SAM WALSH
- They seem to have made their mind up on this one, I personally would trade pick 1 for a bunch of picks, then maybe land Shiel, Setterfield and McGovern, but they seem to be extremely keen on Walsh – A Safe pick.
2: Gold Coast - JACK LUKOSIUS
- I think the best player in the draft, GC would be crazy to pass on him, crows will try hard but I just can’t see GC passing on him.
3: Gold Coast - CONNOR ROZEE
- I think Rankine is a better prospect at this pick and has more X-factor, but Rozee has proven in the past month he could be their prototype Stephenson / De Goey type FWD/MID – And he is best mates with Lukosius.
4: St Kilda - IZAK RANKINE
- I think the Saints likely trade this pick to the crows, but if they keep it – they just have to take Rankine. The saints lack flair and excitement, Rankine offers both. I’m calling it now, will win a Norm smith.
5: Brisbane - MAX KING
- This pick will likely end up trading places a few times, BUT based on right now, if I’m the Lions I’m rolling the dice on one of the King boys. Ben will take time anyway, so Max’s injury shouldn’t put them off too much.
6: Fremantle - BEN KING
- Freo just need to go big here. Ben King although a little skinny, has been great up front and down back this year in TAC and Carnival, I’d be surprised if he slides past 6-7.
7: Bulldogs - BAILEY SMITH
- Could be the absolute steal of the draft. IF (big IF) the blues trade down in the draft, they could likely land this bloke, plus use the currency gained to land another big fish – I don’t see much between Smith and Walsh, so I’d do something like this, but seems unlikely. Dogs should land an absolute jet at 7. (could end up being one of the King boys is Smith gone by this point)
(Swans Match bid: NICK BLAKEY)
- Swans will match the bid whenever it comes – should be somewhere between 4 - 10
8: Crows - JACKSON HATELEY
- If the crows are unable to move up the board and get Lukosius or Rankine they will be desperate to land Hateley. Big bodied Tall midfielder who will be ready round 1. As a crows fan, I really want this kid at the club next year – If we miss Rankine, Lukosius, Rozee and Hateley – I will lose my $&%!
9: Bombers - JYE CALDWELL
- The bombers are a mystery to me a bit, they could go big, small or otherwise – But Caldwell could get snagged purely because he is the ‘best available’ at this point
10: Port Adelaide - RILEY COLLIER DAWKINS
- Again I think port will try hard to move up and grab one of the big 4 SA kids, but if they can’t – The Enigma that is Collier Dawkins could appeal. They already have the grunt midfielders and there aren’t any excellent tall prospects you’d reach for at this point, why not roll the dice and potentially land the next Charlie Curnow type?
(Kangaroos Match bid: TARRYN THOMAS)
- Their first pick probably goes toward Polec, but either way the principal is the same – They should match a bid for Thomas. Has been up and down this year, but his ceiling is high and he could be an absolute star. Don’t be surprised if the crows bid for him depending where their selections land.
11: North Melbourne - USED
12: Geelong - IAN HILL
- I think Hill goes somewhere between 10-20 and could be this year’s big slider that in 4-5 years time people ask; ‘How did he get to there!?’ But if the cats are looking to add much needed pace and could pair Hill with a fit Cockatoo, their whole midfield/wing dynamic changes for the better
(Bulldogs Match bid: RHYLEE WEST)
- Like Thomas, Quaynor and McFadyen, the bids should come between 10-20 somewhere and will all be matched – clubs these days just need to hold onto homegrown / FS talent whenever possible. The doggies fans will love this kid, a clone of his old man
(Magpies Match bid: ISAAC QUAYNOR)
- Really like the look of Quaynor and looks ready to go. Will suit the pies across Half back - they’ll match here with no hesitation.
13: Sydney - USED
14: GWS - CURTIS TAYLOR
- Another like Rozee I think will appeal due to him being that MID/FWD type with a high ceiling, Another player I really like, should land between 11-17 I reckon.
15: Hawks - XAVIER DUURSMA
- Won’t make it much further than here if you ask me. A Big midfielder than could push forward/back for the first couple of years will appeal to anyone with a pick in the teens, irrelevant of pick swaps / trades etc, I’ve got Duursma going around this point.
(Lions Match bid: CONNOR MCFADYEN)
- As a blanket rule - Any club from QLD should draft anyone locally that has talent if they can, maybe even reach if you have to. McFadyen looks safe as houses though and extremely versatile - I can't even place where he is best suited at this stage.
16: Crows - LIAM STOCKER
- With a few quality SA kids still available the crows may stay local; But I think you just can’t pass on Stocker If he is still available at this point. I heard him interviewed on Twomey’s podcast the other week and he sounds like an absolute ripping guy and he did win the Morrish medal (ahead of Sam Walsh).
17: Richmond - JORDAN CLARK
- What do Richmond need? Not a lot really, They’ll land Lynch so that removes the need to grab a key forward, maybe they opt for McHenry or Bytel as they both offer flexibility, but Clark looked great off Halfback this year and those kind of players can also be used in a number of positions – Can’t see him sliding past 20-22 either.
18: Collingwood - USED
19: GC - ED McHENRY
- Another that I see landing between 12-20, on talent he shouldn’t slide much further plus you hear a lot of chatter this year that clubs are chasing flexibility / dual position midfielders and McHenry fits that bill well
20: Crows - LUKE VALENTE
- Shouldn’t make it past the Crows / Port early 2nd round picks. Captain of the winning SA squad, looks a solid midfielder and with obvious leadership upside, a lot will depend on how many and where the SA clubs picks end up, but I’d be surprised if neither end up with Valente.
21: West Coast – SYDNEY STACK
- After just winning the premiership the eagles roll the dice with their first pick (albeit they may have another around this point for Gaff/Lycett) I think they’ll grab Stack or Cameron at this point; Pacey & Local – seems likely.
22: Port – BOYD WOODCOCK
- Like Valente, I can’t see Woodcock lasting past Crows/Port 2nd round selections. Might seem early to a most pundits, but players that step up at big moments aged 18 don’t grow on trees, and Boyd finished the year off for North Adelaide very strongly – I hope he slides to Crows 3rd round range but can’t see it.
23: Lions – USED
24: GWS – ZAK BUTTERS
- GWS need a small forward (Said everyone since 2014) and butters could be there man. A lot depends on who they lose during the trade period, but ever since I saw butters play early this year in TAC cup I’ve thought he would fit GWS perfectly
25: Blues – XAVIER O’HALLARAN
- Another like McHenry that should appeal enough to clubs picking early in the 2nd round. Mid/fwd’s the flavour of the day!
(Magpies Match bid: WILL KELLY)
Magpies passed on Jake Kelly, they shouldn’t pass on his brother – is rated a lot higher and looks fairly well built already for an 18year old. Should match the bid if it comes after 15-20
Player Comparison : Jake Lever
26: Blues – BAILEY WILLIAMS
- These two picks will likely be used In the McGovern trade, but hey-ho – we are basing on today’s order. If the blues do keep 25-26, they should go big with one of them and grab the best ruck prospect in the draft. Could be long gone by this point with everyone seeing how dominant ‘draft sliders’ Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy have been and the impact that plays on overall team success, but who knows?
(Kangaroos Match bid: BAILEY SCOTT)
Not even sure he is going to Kangaroos, in fact he will likely end up at GC or could he be a cat?? Who knows?? But whoever he nominates, mid-late 20’s seems about right for Bailey Scott.
Player Comparison : Ben CUNNINGTON
27: GC – JACK BYTEL
- Maybe the best Genuine midfielder left on the board, GC will be a pile of picks in the top 30 and by this point should have already addressed the more pressing needs.
28: Port – LUKE ENGLISH
- Midfielder who kicks goals – Yes please says Port Adelaide. Again they may go local, McLennan would appeal with his rebound/intercept skills of Half back, but English might have higher ceiling overall
29: North - USED
30: GC – CHAYCE JONES
- If Jones is still available around this point some lucky club will nab a bargain – Tassie kids just always seem to slide!
31: Sydney – SAM STURT
- Murmurs started that he will be this years ‘Draft-bolter’ and if they continues might be off the board 15 picks earlier than this, but being a general forward type without a load of height, I wouldn’t be surprised if clubs opted elsewhere for more dynamic types. Sydney on the other hand need forwards desperately -
32: Bombers – JAMES ROWBOTTOM
- 2nd- 3rd round about right for Rowbottom, midfielder that seems like he is eager and ready to go and would be a good fit at bombers/hawks/Tigers around this point.
(GWS Match bid: KIERAN BRIGGS)
- Since coming into the league GWS have had about 408 ruckmen on their list but no one seems to stay very long, Briggs is an academy prospect that could suit long term plans at GWS, I think a bid comes somewhere between 30-40
(West Coast Match bid: JARROD CAMERON)
- If West coast come out of the draft with Cameron and Stack, combine then with Petruccelle, Rioli and Ryan and you’ve got potentially the fastest outfit in AFL history! Given how much his brother Charlies stock has risen in the past 2 years I can’t see Jarrod sliding outside the top 30-35.
33: Hawks – THOMAS BERRY
- Another brother-of that will appeal to many. Although he is not the identical style player as his Brisbane Lions brother, seems to have the same toughness and mongrel. IF the Lions end up with a pick between 25-35 don’t be surprised if they grab him either.
34: Melbourne - THOMAS SPARROW
- Another labelled a ‘draft bolter’ – Sparrow could fit into any club really, seems like a genuine Utility (albeit mid-sized) player that could end snapped up towards the end of the first round, but I think a pick in the late 20’s early 30’s is more likely.
35: Tigers - JACOB KOSCHITZKE
- Cousin-of the man who used to enjoy crashing face first into people. Seems like a similar style player as his cousin (who at his best was a really good player, was ridiculously unlucky with injuries) and given his AA selection, I think someone will grab him in the first 2 rounds. Yes the tigers will have Lynch and Reiwoldt for the next few years, but a longer term prospect like Jacob could appeal.
36: Sydney - JEZ MCLENNAN
- One of the better half back flankers in this years crop, Jez is a player I could see falling anywhere from 15-40 depending on team needs, Sydney just have a habit of grabbing bargains in the draft and he screams as a guy that could be undervalued by same.
37: West Coast - USED
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