Make the 8 and anything can happen

[SugarShane]

Yeah, there's usually some change, mostly because someone finds form or goes to pieces in the second half of the year. For reference the top 8 after round 9 last year was:

Collingwood 8-1
Melbourne 7-2
Brisbane 7-2
Port Adelaide 7-2
St. Kilda 6-3
Bulldogs 6-3
Geelong 5-4
Adelaide 5-4

Only the top 5 made it. Carlton came in from 9th, Sydney from 14th and GWS from 15th. 2022 there were two changes from round 9 (Carlton and St. Kilda out, Collingwood and WB in) and the same number in 2021.

This year I could see Brisbane making a run, maybe someone like Geelong or GWS lose the plot. Essendon look pretty good but you never know there either. Silly to write off a season before the bye usually unless you're right near the bottom.

I still don't trust Essendon. Agree Brisbane could get on a run. Freo could come good. The Bulldogs have the talent, so do Gold Coast. Some teams in the 8 are only a couple of injuries away from losing the plot.

I don't think we will make it. But a couple of spots are still very much there for the taking. A lot of teams are very bipolar in terms of form this year.

 

[Scorpus]

Most of the statistical modeller people think Essendon are highly overrated and actually shit

Would laugh if they missed finals from here

 

[Crow till I die]

 

[jackster83]

View attachment 1988709

The two most looked after clubs should come as a surprise to no one.

 

[BACCS]

View attachment 1988709

When does Geelong’s draw actually get hard?

 

[Scorpus]

When does Geelong’s draw actually get hard?

It doesn't, their double ups are laughably easy

 

[George Kramer]

Most of the statistical modeller people think Essendon are highly overrated and actually s**t

Would laugh if they missed finals from here

Nah, don’t think that will happen, they are a decent side this year and well coached. Can’t see too many weaknesses in their side.

 

[Pugsley]

We can now close this thread

 

[daniel_4tw]

If Port can beat Geelong down there, we can beat Collingwood at the G. Right?

 

[Crow till I die]

Our form line leading into the Collingwood game is 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (a last second no free that meant we were not given the chance to pinch that game). Wins V Carlton, Port and North, Draw V Brisbane and a very close loss to Essendon. Our form is not bad but from here to make the 8 assuming we need 13 wins, its then 10 wins from our last 14 games needed. Unless we just about run the board from here, I think we are going to fall short and end up with around 10-11 wins and it will put us in that sh1tty spot in the draft where we miss the high pick we want and we also miss finals.

 

[SugarShane]

If Port can beat Geelong down there, we can beat Collingwood at the G. Right?

They're ripe for the pickings. Definitely not firing on all cylinders yet. Pencil us in for a 2 point loss?

 

[SugarShane]

Most of the statistical modeller people think Essendon are highly overrated and actually s**t

Would laugh if they missed finals from here

I'm happy for them to make finals, as long as they don't win any.

 

[Sanders]

View attachment 1988709

With master tactician Matthew Nicks that difficult draw is a cake walk

 

[Pugsley]

With master tactician Matthew Nicks that difficult draw is a cake walk

I wonder if he brought the Aeroguard last Sunday.
Nothing more irritating than a fly on your scone. Priorities.

 

[WetCrow1991]

Most of the statistical modeller people think Essendon are highly overrated and actually s**t

Would laugh if they missed finals from here

Their percentage is awful, and percentage is usually a better indicator for the quality of a side.

 

[WetCrow1991]

It doesn't, their double ups are laughably easy

So the lesson is win a flag, then finish 12 the next season to get the easiest fixture.

We should try that.

 

[Sanders]

Their percentage is awful, and percentage is usually a better indicator for the quality of a side.

It’s a great indicator

 

[footy4ever]

 

[FR0GGY]

So the lesson is win a flag, then finish 12 the next season to get the easiest fixture.

We should try that.

Well we’re masterful at one part of that!

 

[kirky]

Their percentage is awful, and percentage is usually a better indicator for the quality of a side.

Won three games by 6 points or less.

Got a belting from Port Adelaide by 69 points as well. Hawks in Round 1 had 6 more scoring shots but lost by 4 goals.

Reckon they will fall away again.

 

[SugarShane]

Won three games by 6 points or less.

Got a belting from Port Adelaide by 69 points as well. Hawks in Round 1 had 6 more scoring shots but lost by 4 goals.

Reckon they will fall away again.

Meanwhile, actual professional pundits: "Hurrrr Essendon in 3rd! They tha real deal!!"

 

[skam85]

Meanwhile, actual professional pundits: "Hurrrr Essendon in 3rd! They tha real deal!!"

"tHE rACe tO 17! pIeS bLuES doNS aLL cONTendERS"

 

[kirky]

Meanwhile, actual professional pundits: "Hurrrr Essendon in 3rd! They tha real deal!!"

Well now that Richmond are shit they needed someone to replace so step up Essendon and join Carlton and Collingwood.

 

[George Kramer]

Well now that Richmond are s**t they needed someone to replace so step up Essendon and join Carlton and Collingwood.

Essendon are decent though

 

[1970crow]

Can make it with 12.5 but it's moderately unlikely, would need good percentage now that there are four teams with draws and some other things to go our way.

Still think the season is alive if we beat Collingwood next week, but that seems improbable.

My ladder predictor I just did had brusbane 8th on 14.5 wins. That seems extreme, but this year I reckon 12.5 will probably not do the job.