Analysis Making the Top 4 and building to a flag. 4TH is IRRELEVANT, MAKE IT TOP 3

[RussellEbertHandball]

I never said it was all good fortune. I think they're a well run club and would be very competitive ala the West Coast Eagles who make finals 75% of the time and are more than competitive most of the other 25%. But their list composition at the top (ie 4 of their best 6 or 7 players) is undeniably a result of luck and circumstances that are not guaranteed to be repeated into the future.

I assume you are talking about today's top 4-7 players. You can still draft father sons but you have to give up more than in the past and so you use different strategies.

You will still get players dropping down the draft every year because of injuries and go lower than expected. You have free agency and you will attract players back home. If that isn't going to change and Geelong have the best recruiting and list management team, why wouldn't you expect them not to take advantage of the rules and situations they face every year.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

In 10 years time they won’t still be doing this well. Or if they are it’ll because in 3 or 4 years time they bottomed out so hard that they couldn’t help but be doing well again in 10 years time with all the draft picks they’d be getting. Feel free to come back and quote me if I’m wrong.

I will. Oh and what is your definition of bottom out because this century their worst year has been 9 losses.

My mistake. 9 loses was in 2001, but in 2003 they had 7 wins a draw and then 15 wins in 2004. That's not a 3 or 4 year turn around.

 

[Del165198]

how many close games did they win last year because of dangerfield alone?

 

[EskimoPAFC]

Ok new plan....

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I have been updating some stuff in my spreadsheets re who wins premierships and that finishing 4th or lower in the top 8 is almost useless to winning a flag, with the outlier being the Bulldogs who won in 2016, but they had the double unusual factor in that it was the first year of the finals bye and at the end of of the 2nd last round, with 1 game to go, 7 of the 8 sides had won 16 or 15 games and all of them could have ended up in the top 4, no other season has that been the case.

I was going to finish compiling that data and put it in here, but after I started the Cripps - time to go thread, I will have to repeat what I have said in the past and that 2025 now is our premiership window. As I wrote in the OP of that thread

Has traded out our core 24-27 year olds, so we have a big hole in our list between 23 and younger and 28 and over.

At the end of 2021 we wont have Westhoff, Boak, Robbie, Ebo, Broadbent, Hartlett, Paddy, Charlie, Rockliff, Jonas, Motlop, Watts, S Gray and McKenzie.

Who is going to replace these guys with similar output?? Our next premiership window now looks like 2025.

So after starting this thread in 2008, getting to post 15 by March 2009 and then a 4.5 year bump, and hoping we could get to top 4 and a flag soon for every one of those years, I wrote the following in post #23 page 1 of this thread on September 15, 2013;

Our window is 2014-2017. If we don't make it then, given who we drafted in 2 super drafts and if we are trying to copy the Geelong model of bringing thru a dozen or so players drafted over 4 consecutive drafts and playing 80 to 100 games together, then we probably won't win a flag until 2025.

I wrote the following in post #79 page 4 of this thread on April 10, 2014
Nope our window is 2014-17 maybe 2018. That is when the 2006 to 2009 guys are hitting their peak and we have 8 guys from 2 super drafts. We miss that window then 2025 is the next window.

I wrote the following in post #270 page 11 of this thread on September 13, 2017 an 11 month bump of the thread.
Back to my annual end of season look if we can make Top 4 next year on the way pushing to a flag. Last September Janus and I had a discussion how quick we could win a flag. He went for 2018 I went for 2019. I cant find those posts but I referred to it in this post on 16 September last year. My reckoning was 5th to 8th in 2017, top 4 in 2018 and flag in 2019 would be our trajectory, consistent with what I have observed other teams do and I have written about in this thread since 2008.

Page 15 post #358 Janus found the discussion we had in 2016 in the - Are we really an underperforming top 4 team - thread, and the on page 15 continued our discussion.

2025 also is my thinking, given as I posted later in the Cripps thread - We have been on a continuous rebuild since 2016. You don't trade out 11 players then another 11 players and looks like this year will be 9 Johnson, Broadbent, Trengove, Hewett, Pudney, Ryder, Frampton, Howard and probably Sam Gray, if you aren't on a long rebuild.

I will buy my memberships, attend games, have hope, support with my wallet, barrack with my voice, be critical on here - in correspondence with the club - at club meetings, get upset, have foolish religious fervor type belief that we can beat the clock, but my head will be reminding me not to expect much before 2025 re actually winning it all. For the foreseeable future we will be a 10-14 wins per season type team and a craving stability type club, until something dramatic changing.

Whilst we have our current leaders in the footy department and admin, the general malaise, a muddled game plan, a kick it to the bloody shit house entries inside 50 mentality, accepting second best that making finals is a pass mark, and not the vision of existing to win premierships, 2025 is my realistic time frame for us to finally get our shit together and win it all.

 

[Del165198]

Our strategy seems to be making the bottom 4 and building to a spoon atm

 

[Tredz]

I have been updating some stuff in my spreadsheets re who wins premierships and that finishing 4th or lower in the top 8 is almost useless to winning a flag, with the outlier being the Bulldogs who won in 2016, but they had the double unusual factor in that it was the first year of the finals bye and at the end of of the 2nd last round, with 1 game to go, 7 of the 8 sides had won 16 or 15 games and all of them could have ended up in the top 4, no other season has that been the case.

I was going to finish compiling that data and put it in here, but after I started the Cripps - time to go thread, I will have to repeat what I have said in the past and that 2025 now is our premiership window. As I wrote in the OP of that thread

Has traded out our core 24-27 year olds, so we have a big hole in our list between 23 and younger and 28 and over.

At the end of 2021 we wont have Westhoff, Boak, Robbie, Ebo, Broadbent, Hartlett, Paddy, Charlie, Rockliff, Jonas, Motlop, Watts, S Gray and McKenzie.

Who is going to replace these guys with similar output?? Our next premiership window now looks like 2025.

So after starting this thread in 2008, getting to post 15 by March 2009 and then a 4.5 year bump, and hoping we could get to top 4 and a flag soon for every one of those years, I wrote the following in post #23 page 1 of this thread on September 15, 2013;

Our window is 2014-2017. If we don't make it then, given who we drafted in 2 super drafts and if we are trying to copy the Geelong model of bringing thru a dozen or so players drafted over 4 consecutive drafts and playing 80 to 100 games together, then we probably won't win a flag until 2025.

I wrote the following in post #79 page 4 of this thread on April 10, 2014
Nope our window is 2014-17 maybe 2018. That is when the 2006 to 2009 guys are hitting their peak and we have 8 guys from 2 super drafts. We miss that window then 2025 is the next window.

I wrote the following in post #270 page 11 of this thread on September 13, 2017 an 11 month bump of the thread.
Back to my annual end of season look if we can make Top 4 next year on the way pushing to a flag. Last September Janus and I had a discussion how quick we could win a flag. He went for 2018 I went for 2019. I cant find those posts but I referred to it in this post on 16 September last year. My reckoning was 5th to 8th in 2017, top 4 in 2018 and flag in 2019 would be our trajectory, consistent with what I have observed other teams do and I have written about in this thread since 2008.

Page 15 post #358 Janus found the discussion we had in 2016 in the - Are we really an underperforming top 4 team - thread, and the on page 15 continued our discussion.

2025 also is my thinking, given as I posted later in the Cripps thread - We have been on a continuous rebuild since 2016. You don't trade out 11 players then another 11 players and looks like this year will be 9 Johnson, Broadbent, Trengove, Hewett, Pudney, Ryder, Frampton, Howard and probably Sam Gray, if you aren't on a long rebuild.

I will buy my memberships, attend games, have hope, support with my wallet, barrack with my voice, be critical on here - in correspondence with the club - at club meetings, get upset, have foolish religious fervor type belief that we can beat the clock, but my head will be reminding me not to expect much before 2025 re actually winning it all. For the foreseeable future we will be a 10-14 wins per season type team and a craving stability type club, until something dramatic changing.

Whilst we have our current leaders in the footy department and admin, the general malaise, a muddled game plan, a kick it to the bloody shit house entries inside 50 mentality, accepting second best that making finals is a pass mark, and not the vision of existing to win premierships, 2025 is my realistic time frame for us to finally get our shit together and win it all.

Yeah but...but...Kochy said that we can be a strong contender next year and um...we're all about winning, it's our ah...umm...ahh our main focus.

 

[Port85]

From a selling memberships perspective we can't really sell the rebuild and expect lapsed members to return until the on-field figurehead is gone.

 

[GremioPower]

I have been updating some stuff in my spreadsheets re who wins premierships and that finishing 4th or lower in the top 8 is almost useless to winning a flag, with the outlier being the Bulldogs who won in 2016...

Yes. I have checked that. It is basically Top-3 or bust.

The Bulldogs were such outliers that the Giants were only the second team going from EF to the GF since 2000. However, that also made it 2 in the last 4 seasons...

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Yes. I have checked that. It is basically Top-3 or bust.

The Bulldogs were such outliers that the Giants were only the second team going from EF to the GF since 2000. However, that also made it 2 in the last 4 seasons...

In the following linked post on page 15 you will see the top 8 after 21 games in 2016 and the timing of the games involving the top 8 sides and if the 7th placed Bulldogs played the first game of the round not the last, they may well have finished 4th. No other season since the top 8 was introduced in 1994 has produced a ladder like that after 21 games. They are a huge outlier given it was also the first year of the finas bye.

Analysis - Making the Top 4 and building to a flag. 4TH is IRRELEVANT, MAKE IT TOP 3

Based on? Last year both teams who won a QF missed the Grand Final. This year it's still up in the air. As we speak there are still precisely zero teams since the bye was introduced who have booked a spot in the Grand Final after winning a qualifying final. So I'm not sure what's happened to...

www.bigfooty.com

The GWS are a little different that they have a great list but had a lot of injuries for the second part of the season and that's why they only finished 6th. They were 9-4 when they had their bye in Rd 14 in June. Come week 1 of the finals they only had 3 senior players out with injury - Conigolio with a knee injury out from Rd 17, Patton had an ACL reconstruction in late 2018 and co-captain Callum Ward season ending knee injury in rd 4. [ Yes Deledio pulled his hamstring after the EF and missed the rest of finals and Toby Green and Lachie Whitfield missed the PF's one suspended the other had his appendix out and Davis played restricted].

They in the end paid the price for finishing 6th and making it to the GF.

Played at home in week 1 for an easy win, then in week 2 and week 3 they played away from home, won against the odds, by less than a goal in both games that were brutal physical contests. Richmond had a straight forward 7 goal win up in Brisbane then a not so brutal 3 goal win at home against Geelong. GWS entered the GF with not much left in the tank against a well rested 3rd paced Richmond

 

[Steve Dore]

Seeing this thread bumped is rather ironic given Hinkley's speach at the recent B&F.

We're not interested in making finals.

Making finals is overrated.

As I've posted elsewhere, Hinkley believes there is no need to build towards a flag by making finals let alone the top four.

How many times have we finished in the top four at the end of the H&A under our "top of his game" coach?



Hint: His right hand.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Seeing this thread bumped is rather ironic given Hinkley's speach at the recent B&F.

We're not interested in making finals.

Making finals is overrated.

As I've posted elsewhere, Hinkley believes there is no need to build towards a flag by making finals let alone the top four.

How many times have we finished in the top four at the end of the H&A under our "top of his game" coach?

View attachment 765708

Hint: His right hand.

Ken did cover his arse a bit at the B&F.

"I'm sick of the finals talk, a little bit. I know David spoken on it tonight. We're not here just to play finals. We wanna play and win premierships. I think ... that's one of our challenges to set this club up to win premierships."

A few weeks earlier was the first time I think I had heard him ever talk about winning premierships.

In other words, he's saying - give me a long contract so I can be around to coach youse all to a premiership in 2025.

 

[PowerBaz]

Ken did cover his arse a bit at the B&F.

"I'm sick of the finals talk, a little bit. I know David spoken on it tonight. We're not here just to play finals. We wanna play and win premierships. I think ... that's one of our challenges to set this club up to win premierships."

A few weeks earlier was the first time I think I had heard him ever talk about winning premierships.

In other words, he's saying - give me a long contract so I can be around to coach youse all to a premiership in 2025.

Because it's all I got left.... and me dogs....

 

[raptalia]

I spoke with Greg Boulton in 1996 and he said, 'we aim to make finals every year and win Premierships. If we do not play finals we will not win Premierships.'

Hinkley has no idea what the PAFC is about.

 

[Steve Dore]

... "I'm sick of the finals talk, a little bit. I know David spoken on it tonight. We're not here just to play finals. We wanna play and win premierships. I think ... that's one of our challenges to set this club up to win premierships." ....

Interesting how the clubs official Twit quoted the same statement or was that from a different part of Hinkley's speach?



Edit: spelling

 

[bomberclifford]

Interetsinh how the clubs official Twit quoted the same statement or was that from a different part of Hinkley's speach?

View attachment 766434

He is such a poor speaker. I know what he was trying to say, his clumsy and awkward manner mangled it.

"We're not trying to just make finals. ..."

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Interetsinh how the clubs official Twit quoted the same statement or was that from a different part of Hinkley's speach?

View attachment 766434

Live typing vs watching a video and replaying it a couple of time.

 

[Cuzz09]

Hey guys.

Just wanted to say that despite the doom and gloom you were 11-4 in 2018 and pretty close to making the 8 this year.

If thats the worst you have Im scared of Port at their best (like rd5 [emoji44])

You have the talent.

On SM-G925I using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Power freak 2008]

I guess I just want to enjoy my footy. It'll be nice to get some outside speed with good disposal. Also a good rebounding defender. Let's hope our young Ruckmen really come on this year. Let's see how Butters goes next year. He was becoming a match winner late last year

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Hey guys.

Just wanted to say that despite the doom and gloom you were 11-4 in 2018 and pretty close to making the 8 this year.

If thats the worst you have Im scared of Port at their best (like rd5 [emoji44])

You have the talent.

On SM-G925I using BigFooty.com mobile app

Our doom and gloom is we are stuck in a 10-14 wins a season malaise and rut.

Sure its better than only 8.5 wins in total over the 2011-12 seasons, but we are wasting that talent you have observed, and its just not good flamin' enough and we keep rewarding an average coach - not a hopeless one, but not good enough to get us into serious contention and win the whole bloody thing.

 

[raptalia]

I posted the comment below in the Cripps thread but it is also relevant here and follows on from what REH has posted. There is a definite about turn in our list building strategy between 2014 and 2019.

As it stands even if history repeats and we pick up a couple of young guns in the draft we do not have the list to challenge for a top eight spot in 2020 let alone a top four spot. Hinkley mouthing off about winning Premierships is 'out with the fairies' stuff.

Cripps, Hinkley and Davies appear to be banking on rebuilding via the Draft starting last year. This is a complete about face from Hinkley's original strategy when he took over at Alberton and traded first round picks for the likes of Polec, Dixon, Ryder, Monfries etc. Now six years on we are trading away good young players for first round Draft picks. It is almost as if someone sitting around the table has said, well that hasn't worked but last year's Draft worked so let's try it again. Maybe clutching at straws in an effort to save their jobs? Or perhaps that is taking things too far?

 

[Jojay]

I spoke with Greg Boulton in 1996 and he said, 'we aim to make finals every year and win Premierships. If we do not play finals we will not win Premierships.'

Hinkley has no idea what the PAFC is about.

Oh man, to have the likes of Boulton back in the fold.

 

[Janus]

Ken did cover his arse a bit at the B&F.

"I'm sick of the finals talk, a little bit. I know David spoken on it tonight. We're not here just to play finals. We wanna play and win premierships. I think ... that's one of our challenges to set this club up to win premierships."

A few weeks earlier was the first time I think I had heard him ever talk about winning premierships.

In other words, he's saying - give me a long contract so I can be around to coach youse all to a premiership in 2025.

In 2025:

Clurey - 31 in March
Byrne-Jones - 30 in September
Amon - 30 in August
Houston - 28 in May
Bonner - 28 in March
Butters - 25 in September
Rozee - 25 in January
Duursma - 25 in July
Farrell - 26 in March
Burton - 28 in January
Garner - 26 in May
Hayes - 26 in June
Ladhams - 27 in January
Marshall - 26 in October
Patmore - 26 in January
Powell-Pepper - 27 in January
Wines - 30 in October
Woodcock - 25 in March
Cox - 26 in July
Atley - 27 in August
Drew - 27 in October

The rest of the players would be draftees who are younger and free agents who sit around that 26-28 year mark. This is a list that is past its prime.

You'd want to be contending for a flag two to three years before this, IMO. I use Houston as the barometer - Boak was appointed captain when he was around 25, and that was his first AA season. Rozee could easily replicate Wingard in the same fashion.

Look at the seasons that Byrne-Jones and Amon had this year when they were 24 and extrapolate that to players like Farrell, Garner, Marshall, Drew, Atley and Patmore.

2021 is when it starts for that group, supplemented by old hands like Boak and Gray. 2025 would be the end of the window. Ken isn't saying give me a contract so I can coach you to a flag in 2025. He's saying give me a contract so I can coach the team that we've built through the draft since 2013 to a flag. That's why his narrative has changed from 'making finals' to 'winning premierships'. He believes he's got the team to do it in the 2021-2025 window.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

In 2025:

Clurey - 31 in March
Byrne-Jones - 30 in September
Amon - 30 in August
Houston - 28 in May
Bonner - 28 in March
Butters - 25 in September
Rozee - 25 in January
Duursma - 25 in July
Farrell - 26 in March
Burton - 28 in January
Garner - 26 in May
Hayes - 26 in June
Ladhams - 27 in January
Marshall - 26 in October
Patmore - 26 in January
Powell-Pepper - 27 in January
Wines - 30 in October
Woodcock - 25 in March
Cox - 26 in July
Atley - 27 in August
Drew - 27 in October

The rest of the players would be draftees who are younger and free agents who sit around that 26-28 year mark. This is a list that is past its prime.

You'd want to be contending for a flag two to three years before this, IMO. I use Houston as the barometer - Boak was appointed captain when he was around 25, and that was his first AA season. Rozee could easily replicate Wingard in the same fashion.

Look at the seasons that Byrne-Jones and Amon had this year when they were 24 and extrapolate that to players like Farrell, Garner, Marshall, Drew, Atley and Patmore.

2021 is when it starts for that group, supplemented by old hands like Boak and Gray. 2025 would be the end of the window. Ken isn't saying give me a contract so I can coach you to a flag in 2025. He's saying give me a contract so I can coach the team that we've built through the draft since 2013 to a flag. That's why his narrative has changed from 'making finals' to 'winning premierships'. He believes he's got the team to do it in the 2021-2025 window.

The way our club works we will have 10-12 players of the 39 currently on the list playing in 2025.

Your list of 21 players above is an overestimation of who will be on our playing list in 2025. That's why 2025 will not be too late.

Between 2012-2019 the Grand finalists, on the day, have played between 12 and 16 25+ year olds with the exceptions being 1) the outlier Bulldogs in 2016 with 7, 2) Richmond in 2017 with 11 and 3) the Hawks in 2012 with 10 when they lost to Sydney, but then changed that and had 15,16 and 16 in their premiership years.

Ken can believe what he wants. He ain't going to deliver us flag success with his player selections and game plan. We have seen the best of his work and its not good enough.

At the end of 2021 there is no Westhoff, Boak, Robbie, Ebo, Broadbent, Hartlett, Paddy, Charlie, Rockliff, Jonas, Motlop, Watts, S Gray and McKenzie.

Most of these guys haven't deliver when it has counted, and when they have been at the peak of their powers, so they wont magically be able to produce premiership winning stuff in 2020 or 2021.

 

[Janus]

The way our club works we will have 10-12 players of the 39 currently on the list playing in 2025.

Your list of 21 players above is an overestimation of who will be on our playing list in 2025. That's why 2025 will not be too late.

Between 2012-2019 the Grand finalists, on the day, have played between 12 and 16 25+ year olds with the exceptions being 1) the outlier Bulldogs in 2016 with 7, 2) Richmond in 2017 with 11 and 3) the Hawks in 2012 with 10 when they lost to Sydney, but then changed that and had 15,16 and 16 in their premiership years.

Ken can believe what he wants. He ain't going to deliver us flag success with his player selections and game plan. We have seen the best of his work and its not good enough.

At the end of 2021 there is no Westhoff, Boak, Robbie, Ebo, Broadbent, Hartlett, Paddy, Charlie, Rockliff, Jonas, Motlop, Watts, S Gray and McKenzie.

Most of these guys haven't deliver when it has counted, and when they have been at the peak of their powers, so they wont magically be able to produce premiership winning stuff in 2020 or 2021.

I don't write off players based on something arbitrary as age. It's whether their performance is still up to standard.

Don't confuse what happened this year with what has happened in previous years. Howard and Frampton were late picks in the 2014 draft that decided they didn't want to stick around - we weren't going to delist them. Ditto Ryder, who we wanted to keep as back up to Lycett and Ladhams while Hayes keeps developing.

The players we delisted were Broadbent (lost what little pace he had/Hartlett has taken his spot), Trengove (a DFA we picked up to fill a list spot), Johnson (lazy), Pudney (not up to it) and Hewett (had enough chances).

We upgraded Lienert and Ladhams who take up Broadbent and Ryder's spots on the list. Mead will take Trengove's spot. So we've got to replace Howard and Frampton's spots on the list with Pick 12 and Pick 18 - which will make our list stronger because they will be better players.

We'll fill the rest in the rookie draft, where we only have Fredrick and Cox.

There's a difference between delisting players and players not accepting the contracts that are offered in terms of where the club thinks the list is at. The reason why clubs were targeting contracted players this year with big deals is because they know the next few drafts are shit.

You'll find that players who probably would have retired/been delisted over the next few years will still get contracts due to how poor the quality of the drafts are. What we are about to see is the effect of the Socceroos qualifying for the World Cup 13 years ago (when the kids who are being drafted this year were 5 years old) in 2006, which pushed kids into playing FIFA on their consoles and increased the popularity of sticking with soccer as a career path (due to the FFA creating an elite pathways program) and the dream of making it big in the EPL.

That's why the AFL introduced NGA programs and will probably expand it to regular academies soon enough. You're about to see why they would pop a bottle of champagne at AFL House every time the Socceroos failed to qualify for the WC. Probably why Cripps decided to trade out Howard - this draft is the last chance to get anyone decent unless you're finishing outside of the finals.

Come back to this post in three years.