Analysis Making the Top 4 and building to a flag. 4TH is IRRELEVANT, MAKE IT TOP 3

[philreich]

A big Port final at Adelaide Oval, wouldn't that be something to behold? The gentlefolk of North Adelaide might need to book interstate holidays.

I'm sure Ken wouldn't get cute on the day and we would go into the finals playing at full tilt in the lead up games.

And if it happens in 2014, let's hope we get to play the round 23 game against Fremantle in Perth on the Friday night - giving us maximum recovery time for that September blockbuster: bring it on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Ford Fairlane]

And if it happens in 2014, let's hope we get to play the round 23 game against Fremantle in Perth on the Friday night - giving us maximum recovery time for that September blockbuster: bring it on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

And a great preparatory game for finals footy.

 

[philreich]

And a great preparatory game for finals footy.

Indeed. Anyway - back to reality: let's worry about beating Geelong this week

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Since I started this thread I have concentrated on building to the Top 4 the Geelong way and to a lesser extent the Hawthorn way. Over the Anzac round there were stories in the press that confirmed we are copying these two clubs and Kochie in his speech at the Geelong pre match function made it crystal clear we are attempting to emulate Geelong both on and off the field.

This long article in Saturday's paper - here is about half in case the pay wall blocks you

How Port Adelaide went from a basket case to an AFL power

ANDREW CAPEL THE ADVERTISER APRIL 25, 2014 7:02PM


Port Adelaide won’t, especially with the biggest test of its 2014 season coming against those very same Cats on Sunday.

But if the Power has done everything just right, list manager Jason Cripps reckons, Geelong should line up for the Last Post in this Anzac Day round, staring across the Adelaide Oval wing at the Power’s 22, and think, “This looks familiar”.

“We’ve used Geelong and Hawthorn — they’re the two clubs we would aspire to base our list model on,” Cripps says.

“We’ve certainly taken a long-term view with our list and all of our decisions, even from back in 2011, have been based on building towards sustained success.

“We don’t want to just come up for a little while and dip back down again.

“You look at Geelong, they’ve had it for 10 years, Hawthorn for probably seven or eight, so we aspire to base our modelling around them.”

We’re here, talking Geelong in solving the question of “why is Port Adelaide so bloody good?”, not just because the Power faces the Cats this weekend.

“We’ve used Geelong and Hawthorn — they’re the two clubs we would aspire to base our list model on,” Cripps says.

“We’ve certainly taken a long-term view with our list and all of our decisions, even from back in 2011, have been based on building towards sustained success.

“We don’t want to just come up for a little while and dip back down again.

“You look at Geelong, they’ve had it for 10 years, Hawthorn for probably seven or eight, so we aspire to base our modelling around them.”

We’re here, talking Geelong in solving the question of “why is Port Adelaide so bloody good?”, not just because the Power faces the Cats this weekend.

Five rounds into 2014 and 12 of the 15 men to have played who were at Alberton in 2011 have improved their output from three years ago.

Trades and draft picks are turning into gold. Three years ago analysts and critics were asking why young draftees weren’t belting down the door to displace established and ageing stars.

Wondering why Travis Boak was good, yes, but not near the ballpark of Joel Selwood, who was taken two selections later in the same 2006 lottery.

Asking if the obvious talent of the club’s highest-ever draft pick, Hamish Hartlett, really mattered if injuries stopped him getting on the park.

Today, they’re questions verging on insulting. Boak, now captain, is as close to elite as any player based in South Australia. Hartlett, Adelaide Oval’s first Showdown Medallist, is everything fans could’ve hoped for.

.....

How Port Adelaide went from a basket case to an AFL power

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Another article from the Anzac round

Cat empire — taking notes from Geelong’s blueprint for AFL success

JESPER FJELDSTAD THE ADVERTISER APRIL 24, 2014 9:48PM

PORT Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley believes the values of grit and integrity at Geelong has created a blueprint for sustainable success in the AFL.

Hinkley, who played 121 for the Cats between 1989 and 1995, said the Cats had proven that football clubs do not have to come in and out of form and have so-called premiership windows open and shut at regular intervals.

He puts it plainly: do the right thing, which is what he saw the Geelong players do from when he was an assistant coach there to today, and the results will follow.

“It just goes to show,’’ Hinkley said.

“If you just keep working hard, you do the right things all the time and you continually look to get better that you can stay there (at the top).

“If everyone’s on the same page at football clubs ... in 2004 they played in a prelim final when I was there in my first year and it’s now 2014 and they’re on top of the ladder.

“What a great club they’ve been.’’

But as much as Hinkley loved his time at Sleepy Hollow, both as a player and assistant coach, he said there was no additional emotion these days when he coaches against his old club.

Football, with its transient nature, tends to take some of the romance out of the equation at the elite level.

Is it different, coaching against Geelong, he was asked yesterday.

“No, not really,’’ he said.

“Clearly it’s a club that a played for and a club that I had great success at.

“But now I’m at Port Adelaide; I’ve been at Gold Coast.

........

Cat empire — taking notes from Geelong’s blueprint for AFL success

 

[Hammer#8]

Really fortunate how some of our players have turned the tide in their form, this is why I believe we've shown show much consistency this year, and are looking primed for some better times.
Go back to 2012. Hoff was branded lazy, Boak looked enticed by Geelong, Alipate had fitness issues, and watching Robbie have that injury against Collingwood made me think he wouldn't be the same player.

I like the analogy of a bad driver behind the wheel of a good car, and that's what 2012 was like. But change a few things, make repairs and reap the rewards.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Inside Football's article on the rise of Port post rd 6 edition had Gray Hartlett Jonas Lobbe Pittard Schulz and Wingard playing 61 of 154 possible games in 2012 and since then 190 out of a possible 210.

Lack of injuries helps when you have limited depth like we had in 2012 and even 2013.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

Certainly points to the importance of decent preparation and maintenance of players.

When Freo started cashing in on their rise in finances they spent up big on the medical (especially allied health) side of footy operations to keep players on the park.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Finally 6 years after I started this thread we are a Top 4 side again and building towards a flag.

But we had the chance to replicate the Hawks of 2008 - but our bloody kicking for goal in our slump period and in the PF cost us.

Their recruiting of elite kicks is probably why we didn't replicate them as well as drafting 2 x 10 year plus KFP's in one draft with their priority pick of 2 - Roughie and 1st Rd pick - 5 - Buddy in 2004. (yes i know Buddy didn't do 10 years at the Hawks but will in the AFL) KPF's have been our deficiencies as well.

Hawks
2001 - Make the PF
2002 - 10th 11 wins 11 loses
2003 - 9th 12 wins 10 loses
2004 - 15th 4 wins 18 loses
2005 - 14th 5 wins 17 loses
2006 - 11th 9 wins 13 loses
2007 - 5th 13 wins 9 loses + 1-1 in finals
2008 - Win Flag - partially due to Geelong's shit kicking for goal in the first half of the GF 17 wins 5 loses + 3-0 in finals

2002 - 2008 71 wins 83 loses - 4-1 in finals

Port
2007 - Make the GF
2008 - 13th 7 wins 15 loses
2009 - 10th 9 wins 13 loses
2010 - 10th 10 wins 12 loses
2011 - 16th 3 wins 19 loses
2012 - 14th 5 wins 1 draw 16 loses
2013 - 5th 12 wins 10 loses + 1-1 in finals
2014 - PF - 14 wins 8 loses + 2-1 in finals

2008 - 2012 60 wins 1 draw 93 loses - 3-2 in the finals

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Today showed how important it is to get drafting right when you have top picks and when you have a super draft as the impact lasts for over a decade.

Who were the best 2 players today? For me Mitchell and Hodge. Mitchell IMO won the game in the first half and didnt rack up the stats in the last half and Hodge was pretty good in the first half 2nd best on ground for me, and kept racking them up in the 2nd half. They were drafted in the super draft of 2001.

Who is the best player in the AFL? Gary Ablett. When was he drafted? 2001 - ok he was a father son but he probably would have gone in the 15-25 range as he wasnt hugely rated when he was playing U/18s.

Geelong still have Bartel, Kelly and Johnson from the 2001 draft - 13 years of great service from all these players above to their clubs.

Hawthorn had Shaun who went pick 12 in 2000.

We got Barry Brooks in 2001 and traded away our second and third round picks for Hardwick - great short term strategy but along with our other 2001-2005 drafting its why we were in the shit in 2011 and 2012. See post #24 for our drafting in that period.

And the Hawks did well to get a priority in 2004 - not available now and traded out a player to get pick 2 - Roughie. pick 5 Buddy an pick 7 Lewis. They went for 2 Gorilla 10 year plus KPF's and a big bodied hard nut mid in Jordan Lewis.

 

[Jim Dixon]

Today showed how important it is to get drafting right when you have top picks and when you have a super draft as the impact lasts for over a decade.

Bodes well for us given that in the last three drafts our first picks have been Wingard, Wines and Impey. Not so sure about some of our later picks but drafting well 'down the order' is harder. Mind you last year's crop is doing okay so far, but too early to tell.

 

[Nemisis]

Really enjoyed reading this thread.
The only thing I can add is that the day of the 'super team' is well and truly gone since the two 'new' teams came along.
Building a premiership through smart/lucky drafting has taken a back seat - specific needs trading is where teams like Port will get the rewards.
Hawthorn and Sydney were ahead of the pack with this strategy. Port started a few years back with the Ebert deal... 2015-2019 is our window.

 

[Andre]

Today showed how important it is to get drafting right when you have top picks and when you have a super draft as the impact lasts for over a decade.

We screwed the 2001 draft up, but we didn't have father-sons or priority picks (or really low picks in general) in it though. Choco had some weird ideas, but I'm sure we would have gotten one of Judd, Ball or Hodge if we'd had a top 3 pick.

Yesterday - as our games against Sydney and our trouble during the depths of winter - showed is Burgess must be overseeing this pre-season getting our players bigger and stronger as the focus. I'd back us as the fittest team in the AFL now, but that well is largely tapped. The challenge is to get the players stronger and bigger without effecting the fitness or getting increasing injuries. Put aside Ryder for the moment and take our players 25 or under and add an average of 3kg of muscle across the pre-season on them without losing their fitness and we'd be a 3 - 4 goal better side next year.

 

[Portology]

Really enjoyed reading this thread.
The only thing I can add is that the day of the 'super team' is well and truly gone since the two 'new' teams came along.
Building a premiership through smart/lucky drafting has taken a back seat - specific needs trading is where teams like Port will get the rewards.
Hawthorn and Sydney were ahead of the pack with this strategy. Port started a few years back with the Ebert deal... 2015-2019 is our window.

I wouldn't go that far. There are many more trades now than before (including FA) but IMO stuff either draft or trade (or both!) for long enough and you are Melbourne, or Port 2011-12, or Crazy Vossy Brisbane of a few years ago. Sydney [cough COLA] can afford positional needs trading more than most (!) ... Hawthorn generally traded and drafted to a 'theme': elite kicking. Choco was one of the first to really focus on trades, leading to 2004, but the wheels really fell off for years from 2004 trade & draft. We've traded well again for a few years now: Schulz Monfries Ebert White Polec, bit of a mix of what both Sydney and the Hawks did, position (forwards) and attribute-based (speed). Must add the "negative trade" of Chaplin to our list of good recent 'trading' .

Sydney don't exactly have a lot of first round draft picks on their list but they got real gems low in the draft.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...nd-clever-trades/story-fnp04d70-1227065684582

For us, Robbie Gray, Alipate Carlile & Justin Westhoff make up for some of our past poor drafting, Robbie & Justin were up and about year one, unusual for such low picks, and our recent trading wins make up for say the Renouf trade* but we're still in need of that one final positional ingredient and hopefully Ryder is it. It helped speed our turnaround massively that our recent "lucky" drafting as you describe it has actually been at the high end: Wingard, Wines, Impey all falling to us. Won't know about the likes of Shaw, Gray, Amon, DBJ for a while but if it all comes together... it's going to be quite a "Ryd".

[ * In 2011 we trade pick 33 for Renouf on justifiable needs, with that pick the Hawks draft Brad Hill. Two years later we're 'trading for speed'... ]

 

[FishingRick04]

If we were Hawthorn we'd be smart and target the players in the 24 to 26 age bracket.

Eg someone like Broadbent I'm sure would be a player they would target good player severely underrated.

We need another tall KPP is there any out there worth targeting?

 

[mic59]

As Maxwell Smart would say "missed it by THAT much". The Footy Show and I think most others agreed that the GF was our prelim v the Hawks and but for that one goal we would be the ones with the flag. We've certainly shown that we're well and truly ready and this team has the ability to go all the way. Two things that we have been getting away with are the lack of back-up for Lobbe and mistakes in the defence. I am not talking about Pittard's second guess losses of the ball, they have generally been cleaned up by the other defenders. I am talking about the ball going through goal untouched at body height. In the Sydney game at the SCG, apart from Jacko's howler when he totally missed a ball he should have got something on, long goals from Buddy went through where a defender should have got there. When he kicked his 70-metre goal there were players who may have had the time to get into the square and touch it with a desperate lunge.
Playing to losing rucks is really something we also have to pick up on, Geelong used to make an art of it being thrashed by Brogan, Lade, Primus, Lobbe in the ruck regularly but beating us soundly in clearances.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

If we were Hawthorn we'd be smart and target the players in the 24 to 26 age bracket.

Eg someone like Broadbent I'm sure would be a player they would target good player severely underrated.

We need another tall KPP is there any out there worth targeting?

Schulz 2009, Ebert 2011, Monfries 2012, White 2013, Ryder 2014 fits that pattern.

 

[FishingRick04]

Yes absolutely. Smarter drafting than Nash and Harding and Co that's for sure

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Yes absolutely. Smarter drafting than Nash and Harding and Co that's for sure

Hawthorn have tended to trade and now free agent for experienced high valued players who can plug gaps Guerra, Gibson, Lake, Burgoyne, Hale, McEvoy etc.

Sydney have tended to trade away 2nd round picks for players who are fringe 22 in top 28 at a club and reckon they can elevate them to their best 22 eg Kennedy, McGlynn Richards etc. Tippett and Buddy excluded. Tippett was a PSD freebie wasnt he, in the end after the crows were caught out?

 

[FromTheHartland]

[ * In 2011 we trade pick 33 for Renouf on justifiable needs, with that pick the Hawks draft Brad Hill. Two years later we're 'trading for speed'... ]

Urgh, massive kick to the plums.

 

[FromTheHartland]

Hawthorn have tended to trade and now free agent for experienced high valued players who can plug gaps Guerra, Gibson, Lake, Burgoyne, Hale, McEvoy etc.

Sydney have tended to trade away 2nd round picks for players who are fringe 22 in top 28 at a club and reckon they can elevate them to their best 22 eg Kennedy, McGlynn Richards etc. Tippett and Buddy excluded. Tippett was a PSD freebie wasnt he, in the end after the crows were caught out?

Yea the Fruit Tingles didn't get anything for Muppet.

 

[FishingRick04]

Urgh, massive kick to the plums.

We needed a ruck and obviously Hawthorns medical personnel and Renouf protected his injury well grrr

 

[Rising Power]

We needed a ruck and obviously Hawthorns medical personnel and Renouf protected his injury well grrr

Had Renouf not been favoured for whatever reason we could've ended up with Seaby (who came for a medical) and Hill may be playing for Sydney instead. Would make an excellent Sliders episode.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

An article in The Age emphasises the importance of getting second and third round picks right.

Later picks more important than first rounders

Clubs which enjoyed success in the second and third rounds of the draft dominated the last decade, none more so than Geelong, who managed to pick up Corey Enright, Darren Milburn, Cameron Ling and Steven Motlop in the third round.
...
A data analysis of all clubs' picks between 1994 and 2008 compared to a team's win-loss record between 2000 and 2009 shows the more games players picked in the second and third round play, the more likely a team is to have a better win-loss record. There is a negative correlation between the number of games played by first-round players and a team's winning percentage – that is, the more games a first-round pick plays the worse-off the club is likely to be.

Later picks more important than first rounders

Not sure how closely they look at the impact of effective recruiting. Second and third round picks certainly build the foundation but as we are constantly reminded, Port has a number of first round picks we have drafted and traded in.

Geelong also had a decent leg up from father-son picks that only cost a third round pick in that period.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Portia's great post in 2011 in another thread which I copied and updated and put in page 1 post 24 of this
thread, re our drafting of 1st 2nd and 3rd rounders, and splitting them into 2001-05 draft years and 2006-10 draft years, truly highlights how important it is to nail the 2nd and 3rd rounders almost as much as 1st rounders.