Analysis Making the Top 4 and building to a flag. 4TH is IRRELEVANT, MAKE IT TOP 3

[RussellEbertHandball]

There's more than one way to skin a cat. We can't necessarily expect our drafts to correspond with Geelong.

What Geelong (and to a lesser extent Hawthorn and Sydney) shows me is that it is important to draft and develop well ALWAYS. Every player on the list must have their potential outputs maximised. I'm not quite sure if this happened from under previous regimes.

If/when we win a premiership, they will create the Port premiership model.

Brisbane were the first team that used the draft properly to build a premiership, without massive zone start up benefits and access to their city/country zones like the Vic teams of the 1990's, by getting a core group of players together over a 5 or 6 year draft period and bringing them thru playing at least 80 to 100 games together.

Geelong went 4 years of big drafts/trading ie 5+1+4+3 =13 premiership players
Brisbane went 6 years of big drafts/trading ie 3+3+1+1+3+4= 15 premiership players
Hawks went 6 years of big drafts/trading ie 3+4+1+1+4+4= 17 premiership players
Pies went 5 years of big drafts/trading ie 2+1+4+4+2= 13 premiership players
Swans went 5 years of big drafts/trading ie 2+1+3+2+5= 13 premiership players

1992 Leppitsch, Voss (zone selection) Mcrae [Feb 93 PSD]
1993 Lappin, Chris Scott, Lynch traded in
1994 Akermanis [zone selection]
1995 Bradshaw
1996 Notting, Johnson [Fitzroy merger selection] Keating [zone selection]
1997 Power, Black, Mcdonald, Brad Scott traded in

Pre 1992 Ashcroft (zone), Hart, White (zone),

Post 1997 Brown (father/son), Copeland (rookie), Michael (trade), Pike

its that core group of a dozen or so players over 4,5 or 6 drafts with some before and some after that seem to be the way you build to a flag

Hawks 2008

2000 Williams, Campbell (Rookie), Osborne (Rookie)
2001 Hodge, Ladson, Brown, Mitchell
2002 Sewell (Rookie)
2003 Croad (Trade)
2004 Roughead, Franklin, Lewis, Young (Rookie)
2005 Ellis, Birchall, Guerra, Gilham (Rookie)

Pre. 2000 Crawford, Bateman
Post 2006 Renouf, Rioli, Dew

Collingwood 2010

2003 Maxell (rookie), Shaw (father/son)
2004 Cloke (father/son)
2005 Pendulbury, Thomas, O'Brien (rookie) Toovey (rookie)
2006 Reid, N. Brown, Dawes, Goldsack
2007 McCaffer (rookie) Wellington (rookie)

Pre 2002 Johnson, Didak, Swan, Davis** (didn't play in replay)

Post 2007 Sidebottom, Beams, L. Brown, Ball (trade), Jolly (trade), Blair

Sydney 2012

2005 Richards (trade), Grundy (rookie)
2006 K. Jack (rookie)
2007 Mattner (trade), Bird(NSW scholarship), Smith (rookie)
2008 Hannebery, Shaw(trade)
2009 Jetta, S.Reid, Mumford (trade), Kennedy (trade), Pyke (rookie)

Pre 2005 Goodes, Bolton, O'Keefe, Roberts-Thomson, McVeigh Malceski (bolded players played in 2005 flag)

Post 2009 Parker, A. Johnson, Morton (trade)

 

[Janus]

Football is cyclic. That is, the same teams seem to be in contention every season, with one falling out and one replacing them in the top four. Sometimes you'll get an anomaly, but look at this. Since 1997:

1997: St. Kilda, Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide
1998: North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Sydney, Melbourne
1999: Essendon, North Melbourne, Brisbane, Western Bulldogs
2000: Essendon, Carlton, Melbourne, North Melbourne
2001: Essendon, Brisbane, Port Adelaide, Richmond
2002: Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Adelaide, Collingwood
2003: Port Adelaide, Collingwood, Brisbane, Sydney
2004: Port Adelaide, Brisbane, St.Kilda, Geelong
2005: Adelaide, West Coast, Sydney, St.Kilda
2006: West Coast, Adelaide, Fremantle, Sydney
2007: Geelong, Port Adelaide, West Coast, North Melbourne
2008: Geelong, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, St.Kilda
2009: St. Kilda, Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood
2010: Collingwood, Geelong, St.Kilda, Western Bulldogs
2011: Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn, West Coast
2012: Hawthorn, Adelaide, Sydney, Collingwood
2013: Hawthorn, Geelong, Fremantle, Sydney

REH is spot on when he says that Geelong's run was built on the back of developing their own talent - their 'premiership window' opened when guys like Ablett, Corey, Bartel and Johnson came into their prime. Because of this, they didn't have to sacrifice draft picks to trade anyone in, realizing that as long as they had a solid core of top tier talent, the rest of the team would just work around them. Ditto with Brisbane and Hawthorn. It's no surprise that the most successful teams are the ones that not only used the draft instead of trading in players, but recruited well. It's why Adelaide, had they kept all their players (Bock, Gunston, Tippett, Davis) would be challenging for a premiership now instead of wallowing outside the eight this year. And why their loss of draft picks will come back to haunt them.

We have a chance to replicate the Geelong dynasty. Sydney is going to fall away next year. Geelong will as well. The crash will be similar to what ours was after 2007 (Port Adelaide 2001-2007 = seven years. Geelong 2007-2013 = seven years. Sydney 2005-2013 = nine years). You just can't sustain a high level of success with low draft picks - eventually the sides that emulate your culture will, with higher draft picks, over take you.

If you want to maintain a level of constant success, you need to be continually refreshing your list every year. Older players should be forced out of the side by younger ones coming in - not through a forced 'youth policy', but because the rest of the team is quite capable of guiding and protecting that young player as he finds his feet, so there is no reason for an older player with slower legs to keep him out of the side.

How close are we to top four? Very. Make no mistake, we pushed Geelong. They can give a bullshit excuse of how they played poorly that first half all they like - the fact is that they were scared. And it was their older heads that carried them over the line. It wouldn't surprise me if next year we made top four. But honestly...I'd rather a year like 2000, because I'm thinking about the long game. Finish down around the bottom, stack up on KPP while recruiting ones that are ready to go, then hit the competition like a ton of bricks in 2015.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

This article on Freo's website how they recruited the 22 that played last night. If they win the flag next week I will do a summary like the other teams.

http://www.fremantlefc.com.au/news/2013-09-21/how-our-grand-final-team-was-built

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

In 2008 the Hawks recruited 18 players directly drafted from non AFL clubs

They re traded Croad back from Freo
Picked up Guerra in the PSD after playing for Port and St Kilda
Dew returned to footy and was recruited in the national draft
Gilham was on Port's list and was delisted and the Hawks rookied him first.

5 years on they only have 9 x 2008 premiership players

2001 Hodge (1) Mitchell (36)
2002 Sewell (2003 Rookie - 7)

2004 Roughead (PS 2) Franklin (5) Lewis (pick 7 from the Thompson trade)
2005 Birchall (14 from trade for Motlop/Lonie combo ) Guerra (PSD 3, originally1999 - 28 )

2007 Rioli (12)

They brought in 6 players from other clubs

2009 Gibson trade ( gave up picks 25+41)
2009 Burgoyne trade ( gave up pick 9 + Williams)
2010 Hale trade (gave up pick 27 + 71) also got pick 52
2011 Gunston trade (gave up pick 24 + 46 + 64) also got pick 53 and 71
2012 Brian Lake trade ( gave up pick 21 + 43)
2012 Simpkin Delisted Free Agent
* yeah I know some deals had some minor picks attached and traded with player

Draft - 7 more direct from the draft, 6 after the flag.
2005 Bailey (18)
2008 Shiels (34)
2009 Stratton (36)
2010 Smith (19) Puopolo (66)
2011 Hill (33) Bruest ( Rookie Elevation)

 

[Power Raid]

2012 has already uncovered 3 gems and I feel we may see Clurey and Shaw add to that

Port Adelaide Power AFL Draft Picks at the end of Season 2012 2012 AFL Draft Summary

Type Round Pick Player Current Team Games Since Drafted *
National 1 7 Oliver Wines Port Adelaide 24
National 2 29 Tom Clurey Port Adelaide 0
National 2 30 Mason Shaw Port Adelaide 0
National 5 85 Rookie Promotion Thomas Jonas Port Adelaide 21
Pre-Season 1 3 Sam Colquhoun Port Adelaide 10
Rookie 1 5 Kane Mitchell Port Adelaide 13
Rookie 2 20 Justin Hoskin Port Adelaide 0


Trades added 3 more gems and 2 solid depth players
Angus Monfries
Jake Neade
Jack Hombsche
Lewis Stevenson
Campbell Heath

 

[Power Raid]

2011 would be thin if not for Chad being one of our best years to date. I still have my fingers crossed for AhChee though

Port Adelaide Power AFL Draft Picks at the end of Season 2011 2011 AFL Draft Summary

Type Round Pick Player Current Team Games Since Drafted *
National 1 6 Chad Wingard Port Adelaide 43
National 2 45 Brendon Ah Chee Port Adelaide 0
National 3 51 Nathan Blee Port Adelaide 6
Pre-Season 1 8 John McCarthy 21
Rookie 1 3 Darren Pfeiffer Port Adelaide 16
Rookie 2 21 Danny Butcher Port Adelaide 0



Trades added 1 other gem and a handy ruckmen
Brent Renouf
Brad Ebert

 

[*PAF]

We must include Brad Ebert in 2011.

 

[Power Raid]

We must include Brad Ebert in 2011.

yep, the graph just showed the drafts not the trades

 

[*PAF]

yep, the graph just showed the drafts not the trades

Yeah, but in 2011 we used our second pick to trade for Ebert and our next pick was in the mid 40s.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Yeah, but in 2011 we used our second pick to trade for Ebert and our next pick was in the mid 40s.

In 2011 we had picks 6, 28 Priority pick, 33, 51, 69

we traded in and out the following
Trade Chad Cornes + Dean Brogan + pick # 69 (rd 4) to GWS for pick #49 (rd 3)
Trade end Rd 1 priority pick # 28 + 49 to WCE for Ebert + pick #45 (rd 3)- drafted Ah Chee with pick 45
Trade Rd 2 pick # 33 for Renouf

With pick 6 we drafted Wingard and with pick 51 we drafted Blee.

 

[Power Raid]

I won't mention 2009 or 2010 drafts

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Time for the 2006 to 2009 draftees to stand up and get us to the top 4 this year.

The Geelong 1999 to 2002 group took them until 2007 before they won the big one but they went Top 4 before that
1999 11th...........Port 2006 12th
2000 5th-8th.......Port 2007 GF
2001 12th...........Port 2008 13th
2002 9th.............Port 2009 10th
2003 12th...........Port 2010 10th
2004 Top 4.........Port 2011 17th
2005 5th-8th......Port 2012 14th
2006 10th...........Port 2013 5th-8th

 

[Pt Augusta Power]

If Andrew Moore, pittard and butcher come on and become really important, first 18 players for us then we would be well on our way.

We just need one of our round two, three or four draft picks to become guns - a few diamonds in the rough would help.

 

[Powerade 08]

The team we are playing now wont make it.

Too many has-beens and never-beens that wouldn't get a game for the top teams. And not enough players in reserve ready to step up when we get injuries.

We need to give Moore, Young and Newton a run this year, do some trading and list cuts and push for top 4 next year.

 

[Jonts]

The team we are playing now wont make it.

Too many has-beens and never-beens that wouldn't get a game for the top teams. And not enough players in reserve ready to step up when we get injuries.

We need to give Moore, Young and Newton a run this year, do some trading and list cuts and push for top 4 next year.

name names

Dom is the only one that comes to mind, and really with a fit Moore or a in form Newton at SANFL level he would be struggling for his spot

 

[Hong-Kong Phooey]

I tend to agree. Although we do have quite a few injuries ATM so is looking a little gloomy. Maybe this is going to be our year where injuries wreck our season, we end up missing finals, and that proves to be the early draft picks, plus players returning that we needed to top us up

 

[Stewies Power]

I tend to agree. Although we do have quite a few injuries ATM so is looking a little gloomy. Maybe this is going to be our year where injuries wreck our season, we end up missing finals, and that proves to be the early draft picks, plus players returning that we needed to top us up

Depends who gets the injuries. If either Sarge or Lobbe get long term injuries, then bye bye any slight hope of top 4. We have much better depth in other areas to cover a couple of injuries here and there.

 

[tribey]

The team we are playing now wont make it.

Too many has-beens and never-beens that wouldn't get a game for the top teams. And not enough players in reserve ready to step up when we get injuries.

We need to give Moore, Young and Newton a run this year, do some trading and list cuts and push for top 4 next year.

Too simplistic, for mine.

Even the top-end dynasties have roleplayers who are dragged up by the quality around them and thrive as individuals in an environment where they have that little bit of extra time, space or help to perform at a level they'd be otherwise incapable of under the pump at a team that is mediocre or worse.

A guy like Shannon Byrnes, who looked to be an accomplished small forward while surrounded by a galaxy of stars at Geelong, looks to be a mere scrub at the Dees. Kyle Cheney has looked like a worldbeater at times in what is a nigh-on invincible Hawks unit, but I'd hazard a guess he'd struggle at a Carlton or Adelaide.

Starting from a higher base, have a look at the increase in production Danyle Pearce has managed this year at Freo, now that he's free to play purely to his strengths as a loose receiver with an army of hardnuts getting the ball out to him, instead of being expected to carry an entire midfield at Alberton if Boak had a bad day.

We're still on the journey to the upper-echelon and as our players with elite potential begin to consistently maximise their talents - Boak, Wingard, Hartlett, Wines, Ebert, Trengove, Jonas, et al - the lesser lights will rise with them.

 

[Powerade 08]

Too simplistic, for mine.

Even the top-end dynasties have roleplayers

Role players at least do the basics well for the positions they play. Our guys are still working on that (Pittard and Butcher the best examples).

 

[Forzaport]

The team we are playing now wont make it.

Too many has-beens and never-beens that wouldn't get a game for the top teams. And not enough players in reserve ready to step up when we get injuries.

We need to give Moore, Young and Newton a run this year, do some trading and list cuts and push for top 4 next year.

Already giving up our chances of making top 4 because of a 7 point away loss?

And if you think teams like Hawthorn and Fremantle wouldn't be giving Butcher every opportunity to develop at AFL, you're in la la land. Hawkins was persisted with at Geelong (while they were on top) for the longest time before he became a reliable forward. In fact, Hawthorn are giving games to players right now who wouldn't make our best 22 so saying that we have players in our best 22 that wouldn't get games at the top teams is a nothing statement. Every team has players in their best 22 that wouldn't be getting games at other clubs.

 

[Hong-Kong Phooey]

Pearce would fit in well to our current team

 

[Ebert80]

Its no coincidence we have improved considerably since Pearce (and Chaplin) moved on.

 

[Andre]

Its no coincidence we have improved considerably since Pearce (and Chaplin) moved on.

Chaplin wouldn't help us now and I wouldn't want back if we could get him for nothing.

Pearce is an icing on the cake player. When his teammates are able to give him space and the ball he looks brilliant. The only difference between now and when he played for us is Fremantle have the cattle / game plan / fitness to give him the support he requires to shine that we didn't have when he was with us. He still is not a player you could ever rely on to stop a run against a side or turn a match.

These days Pearce would have a much easier run with us. Boak, Hartlett and Gray have stepped up since he left. Wingard has come on great guns and we've added Ollie Wines, Monfries and Polec. No longer would it be tag Pearce lose all our drive. Tagging Pearce would leave one of the others free to wreak havoc. Boak, Hartlett, Wines in the midfield, Gray, Wingard and Monfries alternating mid and forward with Polec and Pearce on opposing wings would be a nightmare for oppositions to match up on. So I'd take Pearce back, but only at a bargain and with the expectation that Kern would make him develop a defensive side, as he's starting to do with Polec (definite work in progress still there).

 

[davesnothere]

The one thing missing from our list at present is Wilbur Wilson.

 

[Papa G]

Chaplin wouldn't help us now and I wouldn't want back if we could get him for nothing.

Pearce is an icing on the cake player. When his teammates are able to give him space and the ball he looks brilliant. The only difference between now and when he played for us is Fremantle have the cattle / game plan / fitness to give him the support he requires to shine that we didn't have when he was with us. He still is not a player you could ever rely on to stop a run against a side or turn a match.

These days Pearce would have a much easier run with us. Boak, Hartlett and Gray have stepped up since he left. Wingard has come on great guns and we've added Ollie Wines, Monfries and Polec. No longer would it be tag Pearce lose all our drive. Tagging Pearce would leave one of the others free to wreak havoc. Boak, Hartlett, Wines in the midfield, Gray, Wingard and Monfries alternating mid and forward with Polec and Pearce on opposing wings would be a nightmare for oppositions to match up on. So I'd take Pearce back, but only at a bargain and with the expectation that Kern would make him develop a defensive side, as he's starting to do with Polec (definite work in progress still there).

I wouldn't want either back. Both are the type of players that would let you down when the heat is on. Watched Pearce closely whenever I watch Freo. His skill and lack of toughness both physical and mental let him down a lot. Chaplin, whilst his year last year was okay by his standards i can see already his old habits creeping in and it won't be long until the Tiger faithful start turning on him.