Analysis Making the Top 4 and building to a flag. 4TH is IRRELEVANT, MAKE IT TOP 3

[Portmanteau]

There's more than one way to skin a cat. We can't necessarily expect our drafts to correspond with Geelong.

What Geelong (and to a lesser extent Hawthorn and Sydney) shows me is that it is important to draft and develop well ALWAYS. Every player on the list must have their potential outputs maximised. I'm not quite sure if this happened from under previous regimes.

If/when we win a premiership, they will create the Port premiership model.

 

[*PAF]

Choco was good at identifying older talent to top up the list.
Hardwick was 30 and was a massive part of our premiership and partially responsible in creating that tougher culture we needed at the time. Hardwick > Stevens.
We have heaps of room for older experienced players and they are also required to build character and stop teams going down the same path Melbourne has where they have talent but look like lost puppies.
IMO even though I haven't had any responses if Heath Shaw and Chapman become available (Chapman in particular) we should make a play for them.

Hawthorn and Sydney have also traded for top up needs. Very few teams are able to get all the players they need by developing their own kids.

 

[FishingRick04]

Let's not forget Sydney have extra $$$ in their cap to attract the better quality fringe players also.

What this year has shown is top end draft picks eventually influence the team, we are now benefiting, Hawthorn has benefited, Geelong did with the advantage of Father Son quality.

 

[Us against the rest]

Choco was good at identifying older talent to top up the list.
Hardwick was 30 and was a massive part of our premiership and partially responsible in creating that tougher culture we needed at the time. Hardwick > Stevens.
We have heaps of room for older experienced players and they are also required to build character and stop teams going down the same path Melbourne has where they have talent but look like lost puppies.
IMO even though I haven't had any responses if Heath Shaw and Chapman become available (Chapman in particular) we should make a play for them.

Hawthorn and Sydney have also traded for top up needs. Very few teams are able to get all the players they need by developing their own kids.

IMO we do need a few experienced players as Cassisi and Cornes are at the end of their careers but we want to at least get 3 years out of any experience we bring to the club or it will only mean we would be keeping a younger player from coming through.Our premiership window will be open for the next few years hopefully, so if we recruit well it could work.

 

[*PAF]

Let's not forget Sydney have extra $$$ in their cap to attract the better quality fringe players also.

What this year has shown is top end draft picks eventually influence the team, we are now benefiting, Hawthorn has benefited, Geelong did with the advantage of Father Son quality.

Yes in some cases but also made absolutely no difference in other cases. Rhyce Shaw, Kennedy, McGlynn, Richards, etc
The list is long, not all expensive players, and a number of puppies that needed some guidance.

 

[*PAF]

IMO we do need a few experienced players as Cassisi and cones are at the end of their careers but we want to at least get 3 years out of any experience we bring to the club or it will only mean we would be keeping a younger player from coming through.Our premiership window will be open for the next few years hopefully, so if we recruit well it could work.

Why 3 years up front? Hardwick was 30 when he came over. Why not someone on a 1+1 contract with the second year having some targets that need to be met and an extension or an assistant role after that?

We have no "match changers" in our current squad but we do have a couple of players that could be one with the right guidance. Chapman is a match changer. I'd love for Moore, Broadbent, Stewart and Wines to play alongside him even for just 10 games.
Immediate time if the 10 games turned into 20 or more.

 

[Us against the rest]

I think it's going to be exciting times ahead, we will make 6-7 changes to our list, we are now a destination that players would like to come to. Watching all our players in the reserves playing in proper positions and playing all together. The improvement in our younger guys, Hartlett, Wingard, Pittard, jonas, Tregove will be exciting and Adelaide oval will be different for us too. A whole new era.

 

[Us against the rest]

Why 3 years up front? Hardwick was 30 when he came over. Why not someone on a 1+1 contract with the second year having some targets that need to be met and an extension or an assistant role after that?

We have no "match changers" in our current squad but we do have a couple of players that could be one with the right guidance. Chapman is a match changer. I'd love for Moore, Broadbent, Stewart and Wines to play alongside him even for just 10 games.
Immediate time if the 10 games turned into 20 or more.

I know what you are saying but KH seems like he would rather build team from scratch, then add some of experience like a monfreys, who will be around for a while and provide good leader ship.

 

[Us against the rest]

If we are only going to get 1 season out of a player, imo it's not ideal.

 

[Us against the rest]

Stability in the team with some depth in the reserves is what i want to see.

 

[*PAF]

I know what you are saying but KH seems like he would rather build team from scratch, then add some of experience like a monfreys, who will be around for a while and provide good leader ship.

I may be a glass half full person but IMO Lobbe is a long way short of his potential.
If next year 2 of Lobbe, Redden or Butcher improve, then the addition of say Heath Shaw, Chapman and one of Polec or Garlett, where they all buy into the current culture, will see us in contention for the premiership.
To develop our own Heath Shaw or Chapman types will take time and by then Dom and Kane will have retired creating other gaps that need to be filled.

There comes a time when plugging the gaps is necessary. Tweak time so to speak.
If you tweak an old list and get it wrong you will go back to square one minus some. IMO we have a young list where our best players are also young enough to be able to tweak and even if it doesn't work out we will not have lost too much if anything at all.

EDIT: Neil Craig was reluctant to trade for players and thought he could develop all of them himself. We all know where that got him. You could say that the culture became near enough is good enough.

 

[Us against the rest]

I may be a glass half full person but IMO Lobbe is a long way short of his potential.
If next year 2 of Lobbe, Redden or Butcher improve, then the addition of say Heath Shaw, Chapman and one of Polec or Garlett, where they all buy into the current culture, will see us in contention for the premiership.
To develop our own Heath Shaw or Chapman types will take time and by then Dom and Kane will have retired creating other gaps that need to be filled.

There comes a time when plugging the gaps is necessary. Tweak time so to speak.
If you tweak an old list and get it wrong you will go back to square one minus some. IMO we have a young list where our best players are also young enough to be able to tweak and even if it doesn't work out we will not have lost too much if anything at all.

Agreed but i think we need someone for more than a single season, if they can play 2-3 seasons and they are a good player then yes.

 

[bringbackbucky]

Fascinating and informative thread. I've just read it form the start and I'm left with only one question...

Who the f^ck is Wade Champion?

 

[Us against the rest]

Fascinating and informative thread. I've just read it form the start and I'm left with only one question...

Who the f^ck is Wade Champion?

No idea lol.

 

[*PAF]

Fascinating and informative thread. I've just read it form the start and I'm left with only one question...

Who the f^ck is Wade Champion?

IIRC delisted by the Sydney Swans because of injuries. We picked him up with our last pick in 2002 as Choco thought that if it worked out we had heaps to gain and nothing to lose if it didn't. Our squad at the time was more than solid and we could afford to roll the dice.

EDIT: I could be wrong about the Swans part but IIRC it was something along those lines.

DOUBLE EDIT: Yep wrong about Sydney, it was from West Adelaide. Correct about the injuries part.
http://westadelaidefc.com.au.web8.pbstaging.com/NEWS/LATESTNEWS/WADECHAMPIONRETIRES.aspx

 

[Puddy]

Heath Shaw is a very average footballer, dont want him anywhere near us. We should have gone hard for Moloney imo

 

[Us against the rest]

Heath Shaw is a very average footballer, dont want him anywhere near us. We should have gone hard for Moloney imo

He does seem to to have some anger management issues.

 

[*PAF]

IIRC Rhyce Shaw was supposed to be the more average and troublesome one out of the two.
Try telling that to the Swans fans.

 

[crazybunta]

2006-20122006 - Travis Boak (5, 1st), Paul Stewart (23, 2nd),Nathan Krakouer (39, 3rd)
2007 - Matthew Lobbe (16, 1st), Marlon Motlop (28, 2nd), Matthew Westhoff (33, 2nd) Mitch Farmer (49, 3rd)
2008 - Hamish Hartlett (4, 1st), Jackson Trengove (22, 2nd), Matthew Broadbent (38, 3rd), Mitch Banner (42, 3rd)
2009 - John Butcher (8, 1st), Andrew Moore (9, 1st), Jasper Pittard (16, 1st)
2010 - Ben Jacobs (16, 1st), Ben Newton (35, 2nd), Aaron Young (36, 2nd), Cam O'Shea (52, 3rd)
2011 - Chad Wingard (6 1st) Brendon Ah Chee (45 2nd), Nathan Blee (51 3rd)
2012 - Ollie Wines (7 1st) Tom Clurey (29 2nd) Mason Shaw (30 2nd)

Curious regarding why Nathan Krakouer and Mitch Farmer would be considered to be failed draft picks.

If we picked up Nathan for a third rounder and got a second round compensation pick, wouldn't that be considered a win for us?

Mitch Farmer I can understand more and I am probably being results oriented as Jay Schulz trade has been brilliant for us.

In my opinion the best draft picks we have made would be Shaun Burgoyne and Danyle Pearce as they both played a lot of games for the side and then we were able to get picks for them that were upgrades on the picks they were initially drafted at.

I think its difficult to apply Moneyball style theories to AFL but being able to trade a player for a higher draft pick than they were drafted for would be the best indicator of a draft pick gone right in my opinion.

 

[*PAF]

...

I think its difficult to apply Moneyball style theories to AFL but being able to trade a player for a higher draft pick than they were drafted for would be the best indicator of a draft pick gone right in my opinion.

We have a winner.
Drafted with pick 15, sold for #6 & #31

 

[crazybunta]

We have a winner.
Drafted with pick 15, sold for #6 & #31

Wow, we did do well out of that one!

 

[Andre]

We have a winner.
Drafted with pick 15, sold for #6 & #31

Sorry, but can't top Matty Bode. 15 years later and we are still winning out of picking him up. Plays for us, nets us S. Burgoyne with his draft pick from the Crows. Then pick 9 and 16 for Burgoyne. That's Andrew Moore and Pittard. Moore has come along nicely the second half of the season. Not quite in the Andrew McLeod not going to Freo category, but geez it warms the heart still.

 

[edgie]

I think also with good list refreshment and player management, in the modern game you could realistically have a window up to 7 years before firing your last shot

Port: 2001 - 2007
St Kilda: 2004 - 2011
Collingwood: 2007 - 2014(?)
Hawks: 2008 - 2015(?)
Eagles?: 2005 - 2012

Several teams like Sydney, West Coast, Adelaide can be anomalies with luck of either variety playing a part, unusually long stays or unusually quick rises and falls, and Geelong just seem to keep on keeping on with little to no trading for established quality players

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Curious regarding why Nathan Krakouer and Mitch Farmer would be considered to be failed draft picks.

If we picked up Nathan for a third rounder and got a second round compensation pick, wouldn't that be considered a win for us?

Mitch Farmer I can understand more and I am probably being results oriented as Jay Schulz trade has been brilliant for us.

We would have given up someone else to get Schulz. Farmer was a failed pick. You don't look at what you got after trading them out. You look at what they produced for Port as whether it was a good draft pick or not. If someone is stupid to overpay for a trade, then that's serendipity that's not good drafting strategies.

Nathan Krakouer was drafted in 2006 and we got Phillips + pick 35 which after trade week and compo picks being awarded, became pick 36 and we drafted Aaron Young. How can that be a win when Young is now only starting to play decent footy and Krakouer played about 10-15 good to very good game for us. So over 7 seasons Krakouer+Phillips+Young have played about 20 good games. That is an epic failure. Look at some of the players drafted around Krakouer and their output over 7 years.

http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_drafts?year=2006&t=N&s=P

Rd Pk Club....Player....Playing with... games played
3 36 Essendon Alwyn Davey Essendon 100
3 37 North Melbourne Todd Goldstein North Melbourne 101
3 38 Brisbane James Hawksley 32
3 39 Port Adelaide Nathan Krakouer 53
3 40 Father/Son Hawthorn Josh Kennedy Sydney 110
3 41 Father/Son Geelong Tom Hawkins Geelong 122
3 42 Essendon Bachar Houli Richmond 91
3 43 West Coast Tim Houlihan 15
3 44 Collingwood Brad Dick West Coast 27
3 45 Western Bulldogs Brennan Stack 21
3 46 Melbourne Colin Garland Melbourne 101
3 47 Essendon Kyle Reimers 60
3 48 Adelaide David MacKay Adelaide 105
3 49 Sydney Daniel Currie North Melbourne 0
3 50 West Coast Will Schofield West Coast 94
4 51 Carlton Clint Benjamin 0
4 52 Fremantle Brock O'Brien 3
4 53 North Melbourne Lindsay Thomas North Melbourne 130
4 54 Brisbane Matt Tyler 0

In my opinion the best draft picks we have made would be Shaun Burgoyne and Danyle Pearce as they both played a lot of games for the side and then we were able to get picks for them that were upgrades on the picks they were initially drafted at.

They were good players and we picked up some good picks when they left. But wouldn't you want to draft a Tredrea and keep him to help you win a flag whilst winning multiple all Australian's?? The majority of your success comes from the right drafting. Trading is important but its the minor part of the puzzle.

I think its difficult to apply Moneyball style theories to AFL but being able to trade a player for a higher draft pick than they were drafted for would be the best indicator of a draft pick gone right in my opinion.

Pure Moneyball statistics theory doesn't work for footy. But Moneyball strategies of seeking out undervalued players, or finding players of value that plug up your gaps, works. We did it with our trading between 1996 and 2002 trade periods. Sydney have done it successfully for over a decade.

As I wrote in the following thread a couple of years ago, Moneyball is all about the little club being more efficient and effective than the big clubs to compete. Baseball is such a statistics based game that Sabermetrics statistics can be used intensely to look at value of players and their trade worth.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/moneyball.888999/#post-22794251

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Carlton's best 3 players in week 1 of the finals - Judd, Gibbs and Murphy all were top 3 picks

Freo's best 3 players in week 1 of the finals - Sandilands, Spurr and Barlow all were rookies