Game Day Match simulation v GWS

[wills2g]

Won't happen but to fit Gus in, Heeney and Warner would need to play 80% forward

Errol and JJ/Campbell (with the other squeezed out of the side) on wing - then without ever touching the midfield

Main mids would be Mills, Rowy & Gus and everyone else sharing the small % of midfield minutes when one of these players are resting

So basically impossible to fit Gus in

 

[The King!]

I honestly think Grundy will struggle

He will need to be managed and supported more I think. No point him rucking 90% of the year and being stuffed for finals

 

[The King!]

Won't happen but to fit Gus in, Heeney and Warner would need to play 80% forward

Errol and JJ/Campbell (with the other squeezed out of the side) on wing - then without ever touching the midfield

Main mids would be Mills, Rowy & Gus and everyone else sharing the small % of midfield minutes when one of these players are resting

Move our best midfielder in Heeney to fit a fringe kid in?

 

[wills2g]

Move our best midfielder in Heeney to fit a fringe kid in?

Said it won't happen but its the only way with a healthy list

 

[The King!]

Said it won't happen but its the only way with a healthy list

But it makes the side worse? I mean we could move players around and fit you and I into the midfield too

I know you said it won't happen though sorry

 

[Jimbo OZ]

Then he'll be at another club in 2026

I don't think any other clubs rate Gus as highly as we do in here otherwise he would've already gone.

FWIW, Gus ranked 76th of all VFL players in terms of average disposals per game last year. Yes - this is a rudimentary statistic but I'm using it to show that there are a heap of good footballers at other clubs already playing VFL and doing well.

 

[Dubai Quacker]

Won't happen but to fit Gus in, Heeney and Warner would need to play 80% forward

Errol and JJ/Campbell (with the other squeezed out of the side) on wing - then without ever touching the midfield

Main mids would be Mills, Rowy & Gus and everyone else sharing the small % of midfield minutes when one of these players are resting

So basically impossible to fit Gus in

Don’t agree here.

There’s 22 + a sub in the side.

Midfield rotations happen. To say that only 3 players get significant midfield minutes is mathematically just wrong.

A team contains at least 10 players that rotate through the middle.

 

[Bloods86]

I don't think any other clubs rate Gus as highly as we do in here otherwise he would've already gone.

FWIW, Gus ranked 76th of all VFL players in terms of average disposals per game last year. Yes - this is a rudimentary statistic but I'm using it to show that there are a heap of good footballers at other clubs already playing VFL and doing well.

It's rudimentary yes, he played 10 games, and might include games where he had 1 disposal before getting injured, then a game of 17 touches 2 months later as he was managed back in.

I think other clubs will be waiting to see if he stays fit and will then get onto his manager given he's only out of contract this year.

 

[JackHiscoxWasFast]

Won't happen but to fit Gus in, Heeney and Warner would need to play 80% forward

Errol and JJ/Campbell (with the other squeezed out of the side) on wing - then without ever touching the midfield

Main mids would be Mills, Rowy & Gus and everyone else sharing the small % of midfield minutes when one of these players are resting

So basically impossible to fit Gus in

Mills Out, Gus In.

Gus is easily > Mills 2025

JHWF, making the impossible…..possible.

 

[Bloods86]

Don’t agree here.

There’s 22 + a sub in the side.

Midfield rotations happen. To say that only 3 players get significant midfield minutes is mathematically just wrong.

A team contains at least 10 players that rotate through the middle.

It's usually about 4-5 that get any decent amount of CBA %, injuries willing. Maybe a couple of others in the odd game or because of injury.

For me this year that's:

Rowy
Heeney
Mills
Sheldrick
Warner (though if he consistently does the defensive stuff as well, he'd be higher, otherwise off HF/wing)

 

[Dubai Quacker]

Someone still needs to miss out. Is it James Jordon? Jake Lloyd?

From last year’s GF side we are likely to be missing Parker, Logan, McLean, Fox, Cunningham, and perhaps Mills won’t play either.

Bringing Sheldrick in wouldn’t need to be the expense of Lloyd or Jordan.

Having said that - I don’t think he’ll be selected. I’m just a bit pre-emptively disappointed.

 

[caesar88]

My two cents on Sheldrick...

I see both sides of the debate (he should be in vs there's no place for him)

What I don't get is why we talk about Sheldrick as though he's a known entity. Do we actually know Sheldrick is going to be better than any of our current mids in any capacity?

"He's a contested bull who wins clearances."

Based on what? The fact he did it as a junior and has racked up numbers in the VFL?

Going on junior form's not helpful. Heeney & Mills were both seen as top 3 prospects in their draft year, and arguably the best inside mids in their U18s year. Do we think that reverence was built on mediocre contested & clearance work? Doubtful. Rowbottom had the second-most clearances of anyone in his entire draft year at U18s level. I'd put any of these guys' junior performances up against Sheldrick's every day of the week, yet these are the guys many now seem to think aren't good enough. How do we know Sheldrick won't follow the exact same trajectory then?

Going on reserves form doesn't exactly tell the whole story either. Heeney & Mills were arguably having more impact as bottom-agers playing for the Swans NEAFL side in their junior years than Sheldrick has had in the VFL the last few seasons. And Rowbottom's reserves tenure, though brief, blows them all out of the park. He was getting 30+ and multiple goals for fun, and led the entire competition's MVP award at the time he was promoted to the senior side.

And that's all before you get to what they've all done at senior level. Sheldrick had four nice games in the middle of 2023 where he provided some nice support in the midfield with his clearance work. Meanwhile Heeney just had one of the great Swans seasons of all time at the feet of Grundy, Mills was the best two-way midfielder in the competition in 2022, and in the same year, Rowbottom's clearance work got us into a grand final.

So on Sheldrick's exposed form vs what our current mids' form at those same levels, I've actually seen nothing to suggest Sheldrick is, or will be, better than any of our current mids.

Does this mean Sheldrick can't be any good or AS good as our current mids? Absolutely not. He'll need the chance to prove and work at that.

But he was given the chance to prove that yesterday and, IMO, he didn't fully take it. Was he bad? Not at all. Was he good? Maybe? Was he as good in the midfield as Heeney or Rowbottom or Warner? No. And I think those guys were only in second gear. So he then spent time forward, because that's where he'll have to spend portions if in the senior side. He was more anonymous there, and not as effective as Warner Jr. and Adams who are vying for forward spots. So am I picking Sheldrick over these guys if I'm the coach? Probably not.

Ultimately it just feels like there's a lot of angst over someone who A) is yet to show any discernible point of improvement on our current players, and B) didn't even fully take the chance given to him yesterday.

 

[Dubai Quacker]

My two cents on Sheldrick...

I see both sides of the debate (he should be in vs there's no place for him)

What I don't get is why we talk about Sheldrick as though he's a known entity. Do we actually know Sheldrick is going to be better than any of our current mids in any capacity?

"He's a contested bull who wins clearances."

Based on what? The fact he did it as a junior and has racked up numbers in the VFL?

Going on junior form's not helpful. Heeney & Mills were both seen as top 3 prospects in their draft year, and arguably the best inside mids in their U18s year. Do we think that reverence was built on mediocre contested & clearance work? Doubtful. Rowbottom had the second-most clearances of anyone in his entire draft year at U18s level. I'd put any of these guys' junior performances up against Sheldrick's every day of the week, yet these are the guys many now seem to think aren't good enough. How do we know Sheldrick won't follow the exact same trajectory then?

Going on reserves form doesn't exactly tell the whole story either. Heeney & Mills were arguably having more impact as bottom-agers playing for the Swans NEAFL side in their junior years than Sheldrick has had in the VFL the last few seasons. And Rowbottom's reserves tenure, though brief, blows them all out of the park. He was getting 30+ and multiple goals for fun, and led the entire competition's MVP award at the time he was promoted to the senior side.

And that's all before you get to what they've all done at senior level. Sheldrick had four nice games in the middle of 2023 where he provided some nice support in the midfield with his clearance work. Meanwhile Heeney just had one of the great Swans seasons of all time at the feet of Grundy, Mills was the best two-way midfielder in the competition in 2022, and in the same year, Rowbottom's clearance work got us into a grand final.

So on Sheldrick's exposed form vs what our current mids' form at those same levels, I've actually seen nothing to suggest Sheldrick is, or will be, better than any of our current mids.

Does this mean Sheldrick can't be any or AS good as our current mids? Absolutely not. He'll need the chance to prove and work at that.

But he was given the chance to prove that yesterday and, IMO, he didn't fully take it. Was he bad? Not at all. Was he good? Maybe? Was he as good in the midfield as Heeney or Rowbottom or Warner? No. And I think those guys were only in second gear. So he then spent time forward, because that's where he'll have to spend portions if in the senior side. He was more anonymous there, and not as effective as Warner Jr. and Adams who are vying for forward spots. So am I picking Sheldrick over these guys if I'm the coach? Probably not.

Ultimately it just feels like there's a lot of angst over someone who A) is yet to show any discernible point of improvement on our current players, and B) didn't even fully take the chance given to him yesterday.

All fair points.

And yet SOMETHING needs to change in our midfield set up. Because it gets obliterated in certain big games. And the definition of madness is doing the same thing over and over & expecting a different result.

And I don’t know where else the change is going to come from.

Sheldrick was heavily hyped by the club last year before injury struck. I think he was highly rated, but the ankle buggered his season.

The alternate is that he’s not in the coaches best XXIII for good reason. I just don’t want to believe that!

 

[Punts]

Another one who I think will struggle is Lloyd

Lloyd , rampe obviously and Grundy are the big drop offs for me

 

[Bloods86]

My two cents on Sheldrick...

I see both sides of the debate (he should be in vs there's no place for him)

What I don't get is why we talk about Sheldrick as though he's a known entity. Do we actually know Sheldrick is going to be better than any of our current mids in any capacity?

"He's a contested bull who wins clearances."

Based on what? The fact he did it as a junior and has racked up numbers in the VFL?

Going on junior form's not helpful. Heeney & Mills were both seen as top 3 prospects in their draft year, and arguably the best inside mids in their U18s year. Do we think that reverence was built on mediocre contested & clearance work? Doubtful. Rowbottom had the second-most clearances of anyone in his entire draft year at U18s level. I'd put any of these guys' junior performances up against Sheldrick's every day of the week, yet these are the guys many now seem to think aren't good enough. How do we know Sheldrick won't follow the exact same trajectory then?

Going on reserves form doesn't exactly tell the whole story either. Heeney & Mills were arguably having more impact as bottom-agers playing for the Swans NEAFL side in their junior years than Sheldrick has had in the VFL the last few seasons. And Rowbottom's reserves tenure, though brief, blows them all out of the park. He was getting 30+ and multiple goals for fun, and led the entire competition's MVP award at the time he was promoted to the senior side.

And that's all before you get to what they've all done at senior level. Sheldrick had four nice games in the middle of 2023 where he provided some nice support in the midfield with his clearance work. Meanwhile Heeney just had one of the great Swans seasons of all time at the feet of Grundy, Mills was the best two-way midfielder in the competition in 2022, and in the same year, Rowbottom's clearance work got us into a grand final.

So on Sheldrick's exposed form vs what our current mids' form at those same levels, I've actually seen nothing to suggest Sheldrick is, or will be, better than any of our current mids.

Does this mean Sheldrick can't be any good or AS good as our current mids? Absolutely not. He'll need the chance to prove and work at that.

But he was given the chance to prove that yesterday and, IMO, he didn't fully take it. Was he bad? Not at all. Was he good? Maybe? Was he as good in the midfield as Heeney or Rowbottom or Warner? No. And I think those guys were only in second gear. So he then spent time forward, because that's where he'll have to spend portions if in the senior side. He was more anonymous there, and not as effective as Warner Jr. and Adams who are vying for forward spots. So am I picking Sheldrick over these guys if I'm the coach? Probably not.

Ultimately it just feels like there's a lot of angst over someone who A) is yet to show any discernible point of improvement on our current players, and B) didn't even fully take the chance given to him yesterday.

Why does he have to be better than the likes of Heeney and Rowy?

I'd be using Mills to shave a little off Heeney to reduce workload, take on Gulden's CBA %, and have Warner play off HF/wing more where I think we get at least equal impact and still some CBA (different story if his defensive efforts become consistent though).

Sheldrick then takes on CBAs that the likes of Adams, Papley (early) and Parker (late) would otherwise attend. While also playing Gus forward, where he showed a bit of class in 2023.

 

[wolftone57]

Bare was OTT but all the listed people are untried and we have seen VFL/practice footy from, it's great if one makes it and we need it, but look at how long it took our current tall defenders to become reliable senior players, that's all I am saying.

I know we have seen some good stuff in a practice muck around , I hope you are right that Amartey kicks a ton and three untried defenders are superstars, but odds are in 2025 we are only as good as Melican, Mccartin, Rampe go as tall defenders. Francis blergh, Hamling maybe

I think other than Brain Fades Francis has been good. He needs to get rid of his sloppy disposal and brain fades and he will be ok. I think he has a nerves problem. He feels pressure when there is none. A good psychologist can change this. Help him to manage the anxiety.

As to those others not yet being tried. Getting tried is the only way we will know if they can play at the level or not. Snell was drafted because he played for the Allies and was very good. He has a lot of UP side. I think Edwards is the Smokie here though. He is 197cm and if he can actually play at the level he will be a monster back there. He can play on resting rucks and the Hawkins like forwards. I am hoping he will be a success as we need that guy who has 197/8 who can play that role.

 

[SSwans2011]

Sheldrick should retire now, go out on top with the Big Footy Swans fans, his rating won’t ever be higher

Amen brother. I like Gus and from what I've seen from yesterday, he did well.

But we've got 4 AA midfielders in the team, which makes it bloody hard if you don't play another position.

Gulden will hopefully be moved to the wing, which is a good move and hopefully helps.

But even then, you've got Heeney, Mills and Rowbottom playing there. Then Warner is presumably still next in line.

The beauty of Heeney and Mills is that they CAN play other positions, but midfield is clearly their best. The 5th midfielder only being able to play one role is a problem. Gold Coast are a great example of this. Alex Davies is actually a very good comparison for Sheldrick. Appears to be a quality player, but when you have Miller and Rowell that can't play anywhere else, how do you fit him in? The fact that Miller and Rowell can't play any other positions already causes them enough strife because if Miller, Rowell and Anderson isn't working, they really don't have much flexibility.

Brisbane is full of dynamic mids that can play forward and back (other than Neale - even Dunkley can contribute forward, Ashcroft on the wing etc).

It was frustrating when Horse played players out of position, but in his defence, with the way the game is going, it's becoming harder and harder to play too many players that only play in one position unless they're the best you have at the role you want them play. Dynamism is becoming more and more important by the year. Grundy is one of the best rucks in the comp and couldn't get a game at Melbourne because he couldn't play forward.

And adding Mills to the equation makes no difference. Idc that he's all Australian blah blah, there's something about him that is lacking and doesnt fill me with confidence. Ultimately he was the main man in our 2023 midfield that got ripped apart week in week out.

As you say, he was AA in 2022, one of the best players in the comp in fact, as our main midfielder in a year we made a GF arguably a year or 2 earlier than we would have expected on here. He had niggles in 2023 and should have been rested, but he's still shown he's on another level to everyone on the list except Heeney as an inside mid. I hope we do rest him throughout the year which would give Sheldrick a crack, but he's clearly a better midfielder than Sheldrick at this stage.

 

[The King!]

I think other than Brain Fades Francis has been good. He needs to get rid of his sloppy disposal and brain fades and he will be ok. I think he has a nerves problem. He feels pressure when there is none. A good psychologist can change this. Help him to manage the anxiety.

As to those others not yet being tried. Getting tried is the only way we will know if they can play at the level or not. Snell was drafted because he played for the Allies and was very good. He has a lot of UP side. I think Edwards is the Smokie here though. He is 197cm and if he can actually play at the level he will be a monster back there. He can play on resting rucks and the Hawkins like forwards. I am hoping he will be a success as we need that guy who has 197/8 who can play that role.

Yeah so it's all unknowns and hope at this stage is all. Will be great if they knock the door down in the VFL

 

[Jimbo OZ]

From last year’s GF side we are likely to be missing Parker, Logan, McLean, Fox, Cunningham, and perhaps Mills won’t play either.

Bringing Sheldrick in wouldn’t need to be the expense of Lloyd or Jordan.

Having said that - I don’t think he’ll be selected. I’m just a bit pre-emptively disappointed.

I feel like the bad guy here. I like him but you have to be a realist. He's not taking the role of Parker, McLean, Fox, or Cunningham. Sure, someone else might but that means pushing an existing mid into that role. If he is playing, he should be playing in the middle. Fair enough if Mills is out - there is maybe an opportunity.

At the moment, he is behind Heeney, Rowbottom, Warner, and Mills. He's not competing for wing time so is not in line to replace McInerney, Gulden, Jordon, Lloyd. I don't think he's got the right attributes to play as small forward so is not really competing with Papley, Campbell, Corey et al.

To get into our team, he is waiting for an injury. I'm sure he will get his chance because injuries happen. I just think it is fanciful to think he is best 22 when considering all mids are fit.

 

[Bloods86]

Another one who I think will struggle is Lloyd

Lloyd , rampe obviously and Grundy are the big drop offs for me

Lloyd was better later in the year, it's just a matter of whether he's in our top 3 wingers (which I don't think he is).

Grundy dropped off because we ran him into the ground. He's only 30, so with some decent management, I don't see a big drop off.

Rampe has already dropped off, just depends whether he can plateau this year at least, or we'll need someone from the VFL to step up.

 

[caesar88]

All fair points.

And yet SOMETHING needs to change in our midfield set up. Because it gets obliterated in certain big games. And the definition of madness is doing the same thing over and over & expecting a different result.

And I don’t know where else the change is going to come from.

Sheldrick was heavily hyped by the club last year before injury struck. I think he was highly rated, but the ankle buggered his season.

The alternate is that he’s not in the coaches best XXIII for good reason. I just don’t want to believe that!

We've been saying something needs to change in the midfield for about seven years now, and cycled through almost three different iterations of Swans mids (from JPK/Parker/Hanners to Hewett/Jones/Florent and now to Heeney/Rowbottom/Warner) with no results. I just don't think it is personnel related. We have had some truly great players in our midfield for some truly putrid results. I'm not at all convinced Sheldrick would avoid the same sad fate.

What I will say is... do we need to look at Ben Mathews? He was the midfield coach of Melbourne up to 2020. At that time, they had the best ruckman in the game, two All Australian mids in Oliver & Petracca, another who finished 3rd in the Brownlow in Brayshaw, and a Club Champion in Jack Viney. Yet they consistently underperformed. Mathews leaves, and the very next year, that group becomes one of the most formidable midfield groups the game's ever seen en route to a dominant flag. And who does Mathews join?.........

 

[wolftone57]

Another one who I think will struggle is Lloyd

Lloyd , rampe obviously and Grundy are the big drop offs for me

Grundy was great yesterday. Briggs is a good ruck. Why do you always pick on Lloyd? He has been a great player for us and continues to be. Even when he was winning Skilton Medals you put shit on him Lloyd is one of our most consistent players.

 

[caesar88]

Why does he have to be better than the likes of Heeney and Rowy?

I'd be using Mills to shave a little off Heeney to reduce workload, take on Gulden's CBA %, and have Warner play off HF/wing more where I think we get at least equal impact and still some CBA (different story if his defensive efforts become consistent though).

Sheldrick then takes on CBAs that the likes of Adams, Papley (early) and Parker (late) would otherwise attend. While also playing Gus forward, where he showed a bit of class in 2023.

I don't think Sheldrick needs to be better than Heeney and Rowbottom. I said he only needs to prove he's good at all.

As you know I've long advocated for Warner to be played off half forward, not as a punishment, but because I think it's where we'd get the most out of him. But I also realise it's a big call for a coach to move a guy out of the position he had an All Australian year in (even if he wasn't named All Australian in that actual position and never would've been.)

This is where Sheldrick comes in. He needed to make a statement yesterday. He needed to convince Dean Cox that he was the reason it was worth making the big call of moving his AA midfielder to a forward flank.

And I just don't think he did that.

On top of that, Warner actually had a thoroughly impressive game from a defensive standpoint.

 

[wolftone57]

Sometimes a part of me thinks Peter Ladhams could still be a consistent senior ruckman.

But I also like to put peanut butter and bacon on one spoon and eat it , so who knows

The one thing that bothers me with Ladhams is his inability to play forward. He gets even less ball in front of goal than Grundy. If they are to play in the same team Ladhams has to be able to regularly take the big mark up forward. I don't think he is capable of that. In the match Sim before the GWS match Sim I saw Green getting forward quite a bit and he seems to be able to do that.

 

[Punts]

Grundy was great yesterday. Briggs is a good ruck. Why do you always pick on Lloyd? He has been a great player for us and continues to be. Even when he was winning Skilton Medals you put shit on him Lloyd is one of our most consistent players.

Pick on him

There is nothing wrong with an opinion