Match Ups

[4#Didak#4]

Should be some facinating match ups on Friday.

The Midfield:
The midfields will be a decisive battle, both sides with 8-9 players in rotation, all great quality. The Cats have the bigger bodies but it is fair to say they do not possess the break away pace the Pies have. This will also play a factor in shutting down the Cats time & space.

There is no point looking at individual match ups here other than pondering who Ling will tag and how Swan & Ablett will roll. I think Swan & Ablett will run free against each other & back themselves - once again I am calling this a draw. Ling is the only real midfield negator. Bartel should not do a shut down roll form the start although capable. If this happens the Pies have already had a win as it is declaring Ling baggage. Ling I think is a problem for the Cats. They need to shut down Didak or Swan, but he simply can't keep up with them. He will go to Pendles & is more suited there. I see Lingy as a potential liability for the Cats midfield.

The contested ball is going to be a war which I am predicting will break even. Should a side get on top here it will go a long way towards a win. Geelong cannot be given first use or control of the ball.

The Defence
Pods will get Presti or Brown. He is more dangerous than Mooney as his contested marking is A+ & a real test for Brown if Presti doesn't get up. This leave Reid to go to Mooney, something I am slightly uncomfortable about but am prepared to back the lad in.

Johnson will get Harry O & hopefully quell his influence, Johnson gives their forward line spark & unpredictability so massively important job for which Harry O is suited.

Shaw, Toovey & Johno will share responsibility for Byrnes, Varcoe & Stokes. Great mini battles there. Stokes & Varcoe are two I am very worried about. I think Tooves can go with Varcoe & try & shut him down, he is super dangerous on the burst & just want to see him cut out of the game.

This leaves Maxwell as the floater. It will be interesting to see if the Cats allow this. Their setup doesn't really allow for them to naturally find a match up for him, but if they try anything it will probably involve Hawkins dropping down forward. I am happy enough with that happening.

Forwards
We really only have 4 stay at home forwards in Cloke, Dawes, Davis & Macaffer.

I would like to see Macaffer take Enright & make him very accountable. The Caf is perfect for this & if Enright doesn't respect him he will bag goals. Hunt will take Davis, not a great match up historically, however all we want from Leon is the basics - crumbing, tackling, chasing. If he tries to make things happen it probably won't. Hunt is a key for them breaking our zone - particularly at kick outs. They did this really well against us last time & against the Saints last time and resulted in some coast to coast scoring.

Taylor will take Cloke, all Clokey needs to do is look at Reiwolts efforts againts him last time. Get him upfield & back, up & back etc. Clokey has a massive tank & can do this well. I think Lonergan is a perfect match up for Dawes and would be a great battle.

This would leave Scarlett to do as he pleases - more than likely picking up one of our rotating rucks at times in Brown & Jolly then creating havoc floating around reading the play. This is not exactly what we want. Would prefer him taking Cloke & Dawes so we can move him around, but as with Maxwell for the Cats this is easier said than done. It is possible for us to go small at times which would leave Scarlett a little unsettled and the Cats to big down back - this is why Mackie could be a good inclusion.

Wojinski running off half back is a real worry as it can break our zones wide open. Don't really want to play a negative role on him but someone like Sidey or Thomas may have to stop his run & carry.

The Rucks
Jolly & Brown versus Ottens & Hawkins is a great clash. I think Jolly & Ottens will cancel each other out, but am thinking Jolly has more run in the legs in the second half. Both are effective forwards & can goal - they will both be testing one another out by getting deep forward. In the down time Brown & Hawkins are important both can also go forward. Hawkins run in the legs may also be a factor in the second half.

Danger Men
Varcoe, Wojinski, Chapman, Scarlett & Stokes are the guys that worry me. We know what Scarlett & Chapman have got & will be hard to stop. The x-factor of Varcoe & Wojinski and their pace, which is one of our advantages they can counter with these guys, is probably more of a concern. Stokes in a close game has a habit of popping up sneaking vital goals - something we need Leon to do.

 

[Pies_10]

I agree with your danger men, Wojinski and Varcoe are usually thought about last after all their stars but can do some serious damage.

 

[half_back_flank]

Don't know about Ling being a liability, I actually think that Pendles will be in for a rough night.

Ling will be hell bent on ensuring he isn't beaten twice in a row.

 

[XPISTO]

Good thread and interesting read. Both these sides are so good so it's hard to get a real judgement on match-ups cause the rotations in the game nowadays make it so hard. I think (like you said) it will come down to a couple of danger-players who earn their side that extra 5 or 10 points as that's all the margin will be.

Varcoe, Wojcinski and Stokes for them vs Didak, Cloke and Harry/Shaw for us (happy to debate these 3 of course). And even then, I don't like choosing only three for each team!!

 

[shawthing09]

Agree with a lot of that. I actually think Ling certainly has the pace and stamina to go with Didak although they have already stated in the past that Ling will go to Pendles but I am not sure if that has changed in the last 8 or so weeks. There are 3 possibilities here, 1) is Ling will go and play a defensive foward role who ever our "loose" defender is, 2) Ling will go to Didak or 3) He will go to Pendles again. I think if he goes to anyone but Didak it is a win for us, I think Didak is the more "taggable" then Pendles and he potentially has a higher hurt factor.

I think other then that it will be a lot of head to heads. I expect Shaz to probably get the job of watching Ablett around the stoppages and trying to hurt him the other way in general play again.

In our backline your match up's a pretty much right. Heath Shaw IMO has to go to Stokes and if that happens I wouldn't worry to much about Stokes. Harry was great on Steve J last time round and Presti on Pods is a win. Reid was pretty good on Mooney last time but probably doesn't have the fitness so it will be important that Maxy and the boys get across and give him a chop out.

I would change your foward set up a tad. If Cloke gets Taylor I'd be trying to take him deep and expose him for strength one on one, he did this well early against the cats. Taylor usually goes with the foward who is playing up the ground a bit more and therefore if we play this way Dawes will end up with Taylor and should be working on leading him up and trying to create space for Cloke.

Maccaffer is really important, he played very well last time round and marked everything that came his way. Given that with their match ups they are likely to cover one of Cloke and Dawes Maccaffer becomes a very important linking / marking target.

I don't rate Wojo as a danger man if we are on defensively he just won't have the options ahead to be dangerous. His kicking is so so and if he doesn't have targets in space he isn't a "tit hitter" Varcoe is and whoever gets that match up really needs to sweat on him and not give him an inch of space, he is very outside but very dangerous.

 

[4#Didak#4]

I would change your foward set up a tad. If Cloke gets Taylor I'd be trying to take him deep and expose him for strength one on one, he did this well early against the cats. Taylor usually goes with the foward who is playing up the ground a bit more and therefore if we play this way Dawes will end up with Taylor and should be working on leading him up and trying to create space for Cloke.

I don't rate Wojo as a danger man if we are on defensively he just won't have the options ahead to be dangerous. His kicking is so so and if he doesn't have targets in space he isn't a "tit hitter" Varcoe is and whoever gets that match up really needs to sweat on him and not give him an inch of space, he is very outside but very dangerous.

The problem with keeping Cloke deep is Scarlett/Milburn will be lurking around & waiting for this situation. I agree he needs to get Taylor one on one in marking contests but sitting deep won't allow him to get many one on ones. Clokey needs to work him over & create space so its not predictable. Riewolt was great at it last final, he started high & ended up deep which allowed him plenty of contests with just Taylor as it left the rest of the defence sucked up the ground.

The reason I see Wojo & Varcoe as danger men is they are the biggest threat to our game plan. They can break up our zones through their run & getting it over the top to space where the Cats can cut us up. So like Varcoe we need to make sure he doesn't get to run & carry - make him kick it.

 

[PiEs_In_ThE_SkY!!! JA PM]

I see Stokes as a massive threat. The guy always gets a couple of early ones against us and then we man him up tightly. Still finishes with 3 or 4 goals and ends up hurting us.