Minor Premiers - a cautionary tale

[Grockadoc]

History also shows that Richmond have finished top 2 on 17 occasions. All 17 times, they have reached the GF.

 

[Achilles Heel]

History also shows that Richmond have finished top 2 on 17 occasions. All 17 times, they have reached the GF.

And.........

 

[rfctigerarmy]

See, respectfully, I think you may be wrong. In fact if we do finish top, I think these stats would be brought up to keep the boys minds on the job ahead.

Yeah... no they wont.

The only stats the club cares about are pressure stats, inside 50's, etc, etc. Not some shitty stats other clubs, and history, have been involved in. They have no influence on the way the game is played.

 

[Sir_Loin]

Might be an element whether the premiers are being the "hunter" or the "hunted"?

In 2008, I reckon Hawthorn set themselves to beat the Cats, while the Cats had to prepare for whoever came at them. Possibly the same in 2012. And maybe again in 2015 with Lyin's "we'll play anyone anywhere" Dockers. Make no mistake that the better coaches will be concentrating their efforts on how to beat Richmond this season.

H&A wins count for SFA on the last day in September. All premiers need a dash of luck.

The only thing we can count on is a double chance and the Tigers playing fierce footy.

Cats kicked 11.23. Hawks shouldn’t have even been in it. Hawks kicked 18.7 which is quite flukey

 

[GastevsBeard]

In 2008, I reckon Hawthorn set themselves to beat the Cats, while the Cats had to prepare for whoever came at them. Possibly the same in 2012. And maybe again in 2015 with Lyin's "we'll play anyone anywhere" Dockers. Make no mistake that the better coaches will be concentrating their efforts on how to beat Richmond this season.

Cats 08 was probably the greatest GF choke I have seen. They should have been 8 goals up at half time

 

[Tiges1229]

Interesting stat. What I'd like to know is how often a team as dominant in their year as we are gets knocked off.

Many years the top 2/3 are very close and it's a toss up between them. Not really this year - so far anyway.

But a very good stat for Dimma to use as motivation. Stay hungry boys, or we are in trouble.

Pies in 2011 were totally dominant but they lost the flag in the end to there bogey team the cats , cats always beat them.

 

[RunningBounce]

Cats kicked 11.23. Hawks shouldn’t have even been in it. Hawks kicked 18.7 which is quite flukey

Yep, there was some luck in the goal kicking for sure, but you'll also recall that the Hawks walked the footy over the goal line half a dozen times, or more. It wasn't solely Bowden's goal line dance that got rushed behinds banned. It was also Clarkson setting a specific tactic for a specific team on a specific day.

I reckon after Rnd 23, there'll be 7 teams who know there's a fair chance they're gunna play Richmond and will all be preparing their little tricks. We have to brace for anyone.

 

[Rodney Dangerfield]

Being minor premiers means absolutely **** all.
And finals are a brand new season where the past 23 weeks mean absolutely **** all also.
It was said earlier but if we play the same as last years finals we win no doubt about it.
So I’m looking at the form, the health of lists, the room for improvement, experience, depth, spread of talent etc, all the things that count for finals regardless of whether you finish 1st or 8th.
And I see no reason for us not to win it all again. Don’t worry about the goalkocking spread and all that, once the ball is bounced in the first final the game will change. Fans of other teams and media sooks will hate it but we do have another level to go to and it’ll be that intense full ground pressure that they all moan about.
It’ll be uncompromising, tough, gut busting and will not back off for the very full 120 mins. Scoring will be at a premium and if we get into our F50 good ****ing luck getting out.
Fans with a short memory and some anxiety should do themselves a favor and go right now and watch last seasons qualifying final v Geelong. It’ll instantly remind you that the footy season changed as soon as that ball was bounced and we were completely dialed in, led by our magnificent captain Trent Cotchin. Expect no different, perhaps even more intense.
This time we are afforded the luxury of preparing ourselves both physically and mentally, many weeks before as opposed to last season, all whilst all the other contenders are playing cut throat games in a jostle for positions with players seemingly at breaking point due to the intensity, hence the mounting injuries.
It’s advantage Richmond by a good margin the way I see it and this group haven’t looked like taking their eyes off the prize all season.
Relax and enjoy.

 

[RunningBounce]

Cats 08 was probably the greatest GF choke I have seen. They should have been 8 goals up at half time

I was lucky enough to be there. Spent the entire day arguing with My Old Man whether the Cats were losing (which is what I thought) or the Hawks were winning (what he thought). With a bit of hindsight and no gutful of beer, I reckon it was a bit of both. And a fair chunk of the Hawks winning was down to Clarkson picking holes where he saw weakness.

 

[GastevsBeard]

Being minor premiers means absolutely **** all.
And finals are a brand new season where the past 23 weeks mean absolutely **** all also.
It was said earlier but if we play the same as last years finals we win no doubt about it.
So I’m looking at the form, the health of lists, the room for improvement, experience, depth, spread of talent etc, all the things that count for finals regardless of whether you finish 1st or 8th.
And I see no reason for us not to win it all again. Don’t worry about the goalkocking spread and all that, once the ball is bounced in the first final the game will change. Fans of other teams and media sooks will hate it but we do have another level to go to and it’ll be that intense full ground pressure that they all moan about.
It’ll be uncompromising, tough, gut busting and will not back off for the very full 120 mins. Scoring will be at a premium and if we get into our F50 good ******* luck getting out.
Fans with a short memory and some anxiety should do themselves a favor and go right now and watch last seasons qualifying final v Geelong. It’ll instantly remind you that the footy season changed as soon as that ball was bounced and we were completely dialed in, led by our magnificent captain Trent Cotchin. Expect no different, perhaps even more intense.
This time we are afforded the luxury of preparing ourselves both physically and mentally, many weeks before as opposed to last season, all whilst all the other contenders are playing cut throat games in a jostle for positions with players seemingly at breaking point due to the intensity, hence the mounting injuries.
It’s advantage Richmond by a good margin the way I see it and this group haven’t looked like taking their eyes off the prize all season.
Relax and enjoy.

If we bring as you describe, then no doubt we will be very tough to beat. That remains an unknown. Last year it was like 37 years of failure boiled over into a yellow and black rage

 

[M0557]

AFL teams won from 13th position in the previous year.

1. Richmond

They said we couldn't do it.

We defied them. And we will defy them all again going B2B.

That is all.

 

[tunksy]

A positive is dusty looks to be finding form

 

[roacheee]

Some corners of the media would have you believe a Richmond flag in 2018 is a fait accompli. We have locked in a top 2 position, haven't lost at the G for over year, and given our run home, are in the box seat to finish as minor premiers for the first time since 1982

Looking at the past 10 years though, when considering the minor premier is the best performed team in the H&A season and would be favourites to win the flag, it has proven to be a a poison chalice

Year Minor Premier
2008 Geelong Hawthorn
2009 St Kilda Geelong
2010 Collingwood Collingwood
2011 Collingwood Geelong
2012 Hawthorn Sydney
2013 Hawthorn Hawthorn
2014 Sydney Hawthorn
2015 Fremantle Hawthorn
2016 Sydney Western Bulldogs
2017 Adelaide Richmond

That's only 2/10 teams who have managed to win a flag as the best performed H&A side

Is there something in this? Fortunately our form line is good and (touch wood) injury list is minimal. But does finishing top perhaps engender a sense of complacency? Or is form line, as was the case for us last year a better predictor of being premiers?

pretty easy to work it out, so tell other tiges fans .....
uncontested, keepings-off, flashy, pretty bullshit footy wins more games in h&a season versus shit clubs. case in point ... port choke-alaide '01-'03
intense tackling n pressure wins finals but is harder to finish minor premiers
simple as that

 

[Rodney Dangerfield]

If we bring as you describe, then no doubt we will be very tough to beat. That remains an unknown. Last year it was like 37 years of failure boiled over into a yellow and black rage

All premiers play to another level when finals start. I’m sure other teams will too but I think we have the biggest scope and a lot going right.
You couldn’t ask for a better position to launch a back to back bid.

 

[Coxy_]

Had a yarn with RonnieB last night. Few beers with the geezer, he reckons Big Bloke said we'll win 6 flags in a row.

Waste of time being concerned with this minor premiership business. We're the best in the comp, it's all on us. If we play our best footy I reckon we won't be stopped. Only teams that have worried me this year are the Toasties & GWS.

 

[Sir_Loin]

Had a yarn with RonnieB last night. Few beers with the geezer, he reckons Big Bloke said we'll win 6 flags in a row.

Waste of time being concerned with this minor premiership business. We're the best in the comp, it's all on us. If we play our best footy I reckon we won't be stopped. Only teams that have worried me this year are the Toasties & GWS.

Who’s Ronnie B and big bloke?

 

[Rodney Dangerfield]

Who’s Ronnie B and big bloke?

Come on mate!!!
Ronnie Biggs and Andre the Giant everyone knows that.
See we win this flag we’re in heaven!

 

[Sir_Loin]

Come on mate!!!
Ronnie Biggs and Andre the Giant everyone knows that.
See we win this flag we’re in heaven!

Faaaark me

 

[tigerdan]

I'd like to see the table showing whether second spot won the flag. Sometimes finishing first or second comes down to % and that may just come down to lopsided draw.

From a practical point of view finishing second is the same as first.

You still get two home finals guaranteed. The only trade off is 3rd should theoretically be a better opponent than 4th. Oh and you might have to wear white shorts in the granny.

 

[JR82]

Some corners of the media would have you believe a Richmond flag in 2018 is a fait accompli. We have locked in a top 2 position, haven't lost at the G for over year, and given our run home, are in the box seat to finish as minor premiers for the first time since 1982

Looking at the past 10 years though, when considering the minor premier is the best performed team in the H&A season and would be favourites to win the flag, it has proven to be a a poison chalice

Year Minor Premier
2008 Geelong Hawthorn
2009 St Kilda Geelong
2010 Collingwood Collingwood
2011 Collingwood Geelong
2012 Hawthorn Sydney
2013 Hawthorn Hawthorn
2014 Sydney Hawthorn
2015 Fremantle Hawthorn
2016 Sydney Western Bulldogs
2017 Adelaide Richmond

That's only 2/10 teams who have managed to win a flag as the best performed H&A side

Is there something in this? Fortunately our form line is good and (touch wood) injury list is minimal. But does finishing top perhaps engender a sense of complacency? Or is form line, as was the case for us last year a better predictor of being premiers?

Interestingly only 1 of those Minor Premiers didn't make the GF! Of the 2 that did win it both are MCG Teams.

 

[Richo Man]

happy to take a red card but i don’t think we will win it this year anyway, the goal kicking spread just isn’t there this year, martin, cotch, shedda, lambo not hitting the scoreboard with enough frequency and butler is a big loss, no wild card to play (towner). someone will blank us or we’ll kick ourselves out of it with shithouse conversion at the wrong time. giants or eagles. maybe we’ll grind out a dour victory with the pressure game

Lambert and Shed have kicked more goals this year than last year. Dusty kicked 37 from 25 last year and is currently on 25 from 19 while Cotch only kicked 12 last year and is only on 5. That being said, Caddy has kicked 18 more than last year while Prestia only kicked 7 last year from 22 games he’s kicked 6 from 10 already. I think our spread of goal kickers is actually pretty similar to last year with Caddy and Martin swapping positions and Prestia and Cotch looking like they’ve swapped positions. You might be right on us not winning, but our spread is quite similar.

 

[Coxy_]

Who’s Ronnie B and big bloke?

RonnieB is in his 90's, bit crazy but a die hard Tiges man. Big Bloke used to post over at that Yellowandblack website before getting banned without warning. He's still bitter. Knows his footy though

 

[Dr Tigris]

Final Siren

How often does a team with a gap on the Squiggle like 2018 Tigers go for winning the premiership?

Or put another way, how often is the premier from the group of teams with a similar top squiggle position gunning for the title?
- In 2018 the group has one member - us.

 

[Final Siren]

Final Siren

How often does a team with a gap on the Squiggle like 2018 Tigers go for winning the premiership?

Or put another way, how often is the premier from the group of teams with a similar top squiggle position gunning for the title?
- In 2018 the group has one member - us.

The form gap between Richmond and the rest of the comp is enormous, the largest historically since the 2008 Cats. There really isn't anyone else in the last decade to compare with.

But there sure is an alarming number of way-out-in-front teams who got mown down at the end of the season, like Collingwood 2011, St Kilda 2009, and Geelong 2008.

And the reason for this year's gap isn't that Richmond are historically great, but rather that the #2 team (whoever that is) is historically mediocre. It's very unusual to get to Round 21 and not have at least two teams in strong form.

So it will only take one team to start playing like a premiership contender and we'll have a fight on our hands.

In 2008, Geelong lost to a Hawthorn team that was pretty average up to this point of the year, then became unstoppable.

The year before, it was the opposite story, where Geelong 2007 were already dominating a mediocre field by this point, and began to power even further ahead.

So the moral of the story is that our destiny is in our hands, and the flag still very much to be won.

 

[SA Tiger RVZ]

Most of those minor premiers never had premiership experience. Also the eventual premier played their best footy when it counted.

2008 Geelong Hawthorn (Hawks best team in September)
2009 St Kilda Geelong (StKilda perennial chokers)
2010 Collingwood Collingwood (Best team that year)
2011 Collingwood Geelong (Same H&A record)
2012 Hawthorn Sydney (Sydney best team in September)
2013 Hawthorn Hawthorn
2014 Sydney Hawthorn (Hawks best footy in September)
2015 Fremantle Hawthorn (Dockers choked)
2016 Sydney Western Bulldogs ( Dogs best footy in September & Umps gifted it to dogs)
2017 Adelaide Richmond (Tigers best team in September, crows weren’t actually that good)