Draft Expert ModernArtillery 2022 Draft Thread

briztoon

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Just a general statement, all draft profiles are comparing to elite players, never to average players...

Mills, Bont, Cripps, Oliver.....

Never Newnes, {insert average player}
Sorry my “who” was meant for Newnes.

Most people here (not me) are going to know who every player is. But a lot of posters are familiar their own teams list, but won’t necessarily know all the players in other teams.

Which why draft profiles mostly say, such and such is a Cripps type mid, etc.
 

Jeffcrowe

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I've been a bit MIA of late but I've caught up on a fair bit of footy, so I'm starting to piece together some thoughts on this years crop.

Overall I'm pretty down on this class. I'm not sure if it's a result of them missing a heap of footy or whether it's just a lean year but I'm really struggling to get excited about anyone after pick 8 or 9. It's soft as hell but I'll half commit to a rankings here to give a bit of an idea of where I'm rating guys in this group.

1. Harry Sheezel
Sheezel ticks all my boxes and whilst he may not be the safest option in that top group, I think he's got the most upside of the lot. I love what he offers in the forward half. He's special overhead, capable on the ground and has the size, speed and strength to create space for himself on the lead or inside the contest. He's really classy by foot and can be pretty clinical in front of goal. He just has all the tools to be a weapon at the next level.

2. George Wardlaw
I think Wardlaw is close to the safest option with maybe the only concern being that his health has prevented him from getting on the ground a bit this year. Assuming that's not a sign of things to come, Wardlaw projects as a quality midfielder at the next level. He's physical on the interior but also has the explosiveness to exit the contest at speed. Not an elite user but more than competent. Short of him missing the rest of the year through injury, I find it hard to not see him picked in the first few selections.

3. Elijah Tsatas
I've been well and truly sucked into the size, speed, athleticism and class of Tsatas. The contested ball-winning hasn't been there enough for me yet, but I still can't look past his ceiling as being at the level of someone like Josh Kelly. Whilst he definitely has a lower floor than someone like Ashcroft, I think the best version of Tsatas is a touch above.

4. Will Ashcroft
Easily the best performed player in the draft to date. Ashcroft gets a heap of the pill and uses it really well by both hand and foot. He's got a bit of zip from the contest so there's little doubt for me that he'll be able to find time a space at the next level. Like Daicos in last years draft, I love his appetite for the footy. The kid just wants the footy in his hands as much as possible and with his skills, that's where you want it too. I view his ceiling as slightly lower than the other three I have ahead of him, but he's as close to a sure thing as it comes.

I've got a slight dip here. I don't think it's a whole tier below, more like a 1B situation.

5 & 6 Elijah Hewett and Jhye Clark
I haven't really decided on the order yet, but I have these two next. I like Hewett's size and burst and feel like he's going to be able to physically exert himself on a contest at the next level. Clark just doesn't do a lot wrong. I feel like his kicking has improved and whilst I think he's slightly inside leaning, he's now more than capable on the outside too.

7 & 8 Mattaes Phillipou and Cam Mackenzie
I like Phillipou as an extractor and love what he can do aerially. His talent in the forward half is exceptional and he's going to be a tough match-up even at the next level. I have him a fraction behind the others because his kicking feels a bit one-dimensional at the moment (it's a lot of long down the line), but that could be a result of playing in the worst SANFL U18 side. He might be a touch slower than some of the others in this early group too, but if he keeps finding his way through traffic, I don't think that will restrict him too much at AFL level.

I mentioned that Twomey stole my Callum Mills comp in another thread but jokes aside, that's the ceiling I see for Mackenzie. I think he's a death by accumulation kind of guy, rather than impact per possession but Mackenzie can win it inside and out. I think his kicking as dropped a touch at the Champs with the added pressure, but it's not broken. Like Phillipou, I don't think he's the same speed athlete as some of the other early options, but it hasn't inhibited him one bit at U18 level.


This is where I start to get less excited.

9. Jedd Busslinger
10. Harry Lemmey
11. Harry Barnett


These are my three favourite keys at the moment, though none of them have really overwhelmed me. Busslinger is the best performed but I'm far from convinced he'll be a star at the next level. Lemmey I think is the most talented and I haven't completely lost faith in him being a special prospect, but it's hard to overlook how ordinary his year has been so far. I LOVE Barnett's contested marking and the way he moves for his size, but his kicking and decision-making can be erratic at times.

12-15 Mitch Szybkowski, Charlie Clarke, Alwyn DaveyJr and Oliver Hollands
These four guys get me to 15 and I'm really not super attached to this group at all. I think I like the upside of Alwyn the most but he's probably been the least productive of the group. I'm really optimistic about what Charlie Clarke could be at AFL level, but I like him as a value pick in the second round onwards, rather than as a genuine first rounder. I'm not overly excited by Szybkowski and Hollands but I think they could be pieces in a midfield group at AFL level.

A few other comments to wrap up:

I think Brayden George will be pretty close to this top group, but I just need to see a bit more of him.

I just can't get all the way there yet on Keeler, Cadman and Jefferson yet. Obviously Jefferson's performance was pretty special on the weekend and Keeler and Cadman have had their moments too. I think they're genuinely the 4-5 year project type key forwards which is fine, but I'm not quite there on them being a a number one option inside 50. If I'm picking one at the moment I think it's Jefferson (definitely recency bias).

Probably a bit surprising (and maybe a bit crazy), but I think I like Walker, Lovelock and Sadler more than D'Aloia, Kobe Ryan and Dowling out of the SA group. I like Walker's speed and burst in the contest. He has great hands and I think his tank will improve as he gets some continuity in his footy. I'm pretty sure I hold all the Archie Lovelock stock that exists. He's never done anything wrong in my eyes. Sadler is another that is super clean and has great speed and class with the footy.

Make no mistake, D'Aloia is incredibly special at underage level but his speed, tank and kicking is a bit of a worry for me. I love Kobe Ryan and he's performed at every level he's played, but he has to be a midfielder at AFL level and I'm just starting to worry a little bit about what that looks like. There's probably a bit more versatility to Dowling's game and the numbers are great. I think I could be talked into him but I'm not quite there yet.

To finish on a positive note, and I'll do some more on these guys in the coming days, a few other names I like: Noah Long, Max Michalanney, Coby Burgiel, Lachie Cowan, Finn Emile-Brennan, Jonti Schuback, Lewis Hayes and Tom McCallum.
Like these names and the game changers early on your list

What’s your thoughts on Jakob Ryan from SA ?
 

Mutineer

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Like these names and the game changers early on your list

What’s your thoughts on Jakob Ryan from SA ?
Mut.PNG

MA.PNG
 

ModernArtillery

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Cheers mate, you said its a soft group after 8/9..but the fhe top 5 are they A grade prospects? Or are they weak too?
I wouldn't say they're weak. Comparing them to last years draft, I'd have them all after Horne-Francis and Daicos, but probably in that Callaghan/Rachele/Ward range.
Shuback looked good on weekend strong leg could be a great forward pocket? What do you think of Weddell?

Geez I see Schuback as a wing/running back with a very complete skill set for an outside type player.
I have him in that wing/halfback role too. Perhaps similar to Adam Saad.. LemmingMaster ;)

I like Weddle. He's shown a bit as an interceptor and rebounder across halfback. Good size for that role too. I probably view him in the second half of the draft-rookie though.

I wouldn’t say it’s too surprising. I do quite like Kobe Ryan and I’d have him ahead of the others, but there are some decent players amongst the lesser known SA guys.

I’d have Sadler ahead of D’Aloia, Walker ahead of Dowling. For much the reasons you said. And Lovelock is just one of those guys who’ll probably end up playing more games than all of them without anyone noticing, could find a home quite easily as a half forward like Brad Close has at Geelong.

And I certainly haven’t jumped off Lemmey either. Only thing that’s changed is I’m starting to imagine him in purple.
I like this. I think you're right that Kobe is the best of the group right now. It's just that transition to AFL level that I'm starting to second guess.
Like these names and the game changers early on your list

What’s your thoughts on Jakob Ryan from SA ?
Mutineer has helped us out a bit here but I'll try and expand a little more. He's a really nice size, he has aerial ability and can use the footy well with time and space. He's another that has an appetite for the footy and really wants it in his hands. I don't think he's ever a midfielder at the next level. I view him solely as a wing/halfback, but with his aerial ability, size and class, the tools are there for him to be an AFL footballer.
 

pushintheback

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I wouldn't say they're weak. Comparing them to last years draft, I'd have them all after Horne-Francis and Daicos, but probably in that Callaghan/Rachele/Ward range.



I have him in that wing/halfback role too. Perhaps similar to Adam Saad.. LemmingMaster ;)

I like Weddle. He's shown a bit as an interceptor and rebounder across halfback. Good size for that role too. I probably view him in the second half of the draft-rookie though.


I like this. I think you're right that Kobe is the best of the group right now. It's just that transition to AFL level that I'm starting to second guess.

Mutineer has helped us out a bit here but I'll try and expand a little more. He's a really nice size, he has aerial ability and can use the footy well with time and space. He's another that has an appetite for the footy and really wants it in his hands. I don't think he's ever a midfielder at the next level. I view him solely as a wing/halfback, but with his aerial ability, size and class, the tools are there for him to be an AFL footballer.
Weddle had a great game vs WA. He was the best contested marker on the day.
 

Ysaye

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I wouldn’t say it’s too surprising. I do quite like Kobe Ryan and I’d have him ahead of the others, but there are some decent players amongst the lesser known SA guys.

I’d have Sadler ahead of D’Aloia, Walker ahead of Dowling. For much the reasons you said. And Lovelock is just one of those guys who’ll probably end up playing more games than all of them without anyone noticing, could find a home quite easily as a half forward like Brad Close has at Geelong.

And I certainly haven’t jumped off Lemmey either. Only thing that’s changed is I’m starting to imagine him in purple.

Are you factoring in that we probably won't have a first round pick with that imagining? I think he would suit our list but I just reckon unless both Lobb and Meek are gone and we let go one of Kuek or Treacy.
 
Rankings Part 2 (still sort of)

ModernArtillery

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It's only been a few weeks since my last rankings but we've got a fair bit of footy in since then.

1. Harry Sheezel
2. George Wardlaw
3. Elijah Tsatas
4. Will Ashcroft


I'm really hesitant to drop Wardlaw and Tsatas without them playing, but Ashcroft has just been phenomenal. He sits at four only because I think the ceiling of the other three prospects is higher. It's probably unlikely that all three end up better than Ashcroft though, so I may have to reconsider. It really should be a criminal offence to not have him higher but I'm stubborn (stupid).

5, 6 & 7 Elijah Hewett, Jhye Clark and Mitch Szybkowski
Szybkowski the big mover for me. I really like his size, burst and use by foot. I think he's got a nice inside/outside balance and feel like he has a lot of ways he can fit into a midfield at AFL level.

8 & 9 Mattaes Phillipou and Cam Mackenzie
10. Jedd Busslinger

11 & 12 Harry Lemmey and Harry Barnett

Keeping Lemmey here isn't really defensible, especially given I have him ahead of all the other key forwards in this draft. I just can't quite let go of the picture I had of him from last year. Not quite ready to jump off yet (again, stubborn/stupid). Barnett has everything that I want to see from a key position player and is pretty close to jumping Lemmey (he may have already).

13-15 Harry Cole, Alwyn DaveyJr and Oliver Hollands
Clarke slides out of this group on the back of others showing a little more of what I wanted to see through the Champs. Harry Cole is one I'm really loving at the moment and is my recency bias riser. I just love his size, speed and athleticism. He's got forward craft too and if he can ever put it together as a midfielder I think he could be pretty special.

16-24 Charlie Clarke, Max Michalanney, Noah Long, Aaron Cadman, Isaac Keeler, Matthew Jefferson, Lachie Cowan, Lewis Hayes, Jaspa Fletcher
I think this is where I'd have to strongly consider the keys. Even if I'm not all the way there yet, I'd rather take the upside of Cadman, Keeler or Jefferson in this range compared to most other prospects. I like the smalls that can get up and down the ground, move the ball well, apply forward pressure and hit the scoreboard. I think Long and Clarke can do all of those things at AFL level and while they can, I think there is a role for them there. I believe in what Michalanney looks like at AFL level and can see him fitting in as a versatile defender and attacking option out of the back half. Lewis Hayes is the second best KPD in my view and I think Fletcher is a super smooth operator. I think he forges a career at AFL level. Cowan's inclusion is less on recent form and more just an assessment of the physical attributes and weapons.

Jakob Ryan, Billy Dowling and Reuben Ginbey
are all pretty close. I still like what I see from Walker, Lovelock and Sadler more than Dowling in particular, but I think Dowling probably has the higher ceiling. Lovelock is still my guy though.

I need to do more work on Brayden George (still), Oli Hotton, Bailey Humphrey and Jack O'Sullivan. There's a world where each of them fits into my top 25.
 

PocketRocket08

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It's only been a few weeks since my last rankings but we've got a fair bit of footy in since then.

1. Harry Sheezel
2. George Wardlaw
3. Elijah Tsatas
4. Will Ashcroft


I'm really hesitant to drop Wardlaw and Tsatas without them playing, but Ashcroft has just been phenomenal. He sits at four only because I think the ceiling of the other three prospects is higher. It's probably unlikely that all three end up better than Ashcroft though, so I may have to reconsider. It really should be a criminal offence to not have him higher but I'm stubborn (stupid).

5, 6 & 7 Elijah Hewett, Jhye Clark and Mitch Szybkowski
Szybkowski the big mover for me. I really like his size, burst and use by foot. I think he's got a nice inside/outside balance and feel like he has a lot of ways he can fit into a midfield at AFL level.

8 & 9 Mattaes Phillipou and Cam Mackenzie
10. Jedd Busslinger

11 & 12 Harry Lemmey and Harry Barnett

Keeping Lemmey here isn't really defensible, especially given I have him ahead of all the other key forwards in this draft. I just can't quite let go of the picture I had of him from last year. Not quite ready to jump off yet (again, stubborn/stupid). Barnett has everything that I want to see from a key position player and is pretty close to jumping Lemmey (he may have already).

13-15 Harry Cole, Alwyn DaveyJr and Oliver Hollands
Clarke slides out of this group on the back of others showing a little more of what I wanted to see through the Champs. Harry Cole is one I'm really loving at the moment and is my recency bias riser. I just love his size, speed and athleticism. He's got forward craft too and if he can ever put it together as a midfielder I think he could be pretty special.

16-24 Charlie Clarke, Max Michalanney, Noah Long, Aaron Cadman, Isaac Keeler, Matthew Jefferson, Lachie Cowan, Lewis Hayes, Jaspa Fletcher
I think this is where I'd have to strongly consider the keys. Even if I'm not all the way there yet, I'd rather take the upside of Cadman, Keeler or Jefferson in this range compared to most other prospects. I like the smalls that can get up and down the ground, move the ball well, apply forward pressure and hit the scoreboard. I think Long and Clarke can do all of those things at AFL level and while they can, I think there is a role for them there. I believe in what Michalanney looks like at AFL level and can see him fitting in as a versatile defender and attacking option out of the back half. Lewis Hayes is the second best KPD in my view and I think Fletcher is a super smooth operator. I think he forges a career at AFL level. Cowan's inclusion is less on recent form and more just an assessment of the physical attributes and weapons.

Jakob Ryan, Billy Dowling and Reuben Ginbey are all pretty close. I still like what I see from Walker, Lovelock and Sadler more than Dowling in particular, but I think Dowling probably has the higher ceiling. Lovelock is still my guy though.

I need to do more work on Brayden George (still), Oli Hotton, Bailey Humphrey and Jack O'Sullivan. There's a world where each of them fits into my top 25.
For me Sheezel is number 1 also now. Ashcroft 2 Wardlaw 3.
Hotton was impressive against SA and solid in other two games. I’d have him in though I want to see him in the NAB league again also.
I huge fan of Lewis hayse I could see him even becoming a top 10 pick
Also like you have Charlie Clarke in that 16-24 pick while I expect him to go anywhere from 25-40 a few have dropped of while his Champs weren’t brilliant he had some good moments like Hotton interested to see how he finishes the season.
Blake Drury & Jacob Konstanty will also be around that 30-40.
Weddle, Verrell & Van Es are 3 defenders that continue to elevate their draft prospects.
 

Chris25

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11 & 12 Harry Lemmey and Harry Barnett
Keeping Lemmey here isn't really defensible, especially given I have him ahead of all the other key forwards in this draft. I just can't quite let go of the picture I had of him from last year. Not quite ready to jump off yet (again, stubborn/stupid). Barnett has everything that I want to see from a key position player and is pretty close to jumping Lemmey (he may have already).

It's nice to see not everyone has given up on Harry Lemmey. I keep thinking I should start my thread and then never get around to it, but he's still #10 on my board.
 

ModernArtillery

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It's nice to see not everyone has given up on Harry Lemmey. I keep thinking I should start my thread and then never get around to it, but he's still #10 on my board.
At the start of the year I would've had him in my top 2 or 3. I guess I'm just backing in the pedigree at this stage and hoping that the overall talent overcomes the form.
 

citizen-erased

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It's only been a few weeks since my last rankings but we've got a fair bit of footy in since then.

1. Harry Sheezel
2. George Wardlaw
3. Elijah Tsatas
4. Will Ashcroft


I'm really hesitant to drop Wardlaw and Tsatas without them playing, but Ashcroft has just been phenomenal. He sits at four only because I think the ceiling of the other three prospects is higher. It's probably unlikely that all three end up better than Ashcroft though, so I may have to reconsider. It really should be a criminal offence to not have him higher but I'm stubborn (stupid).

5, 6 & 7 Elijah Hewett, Jhye Clark and Mitch Szybkowski
Szybkowski the big mover for me. I really like his size, burst and use by foot. I think he's got a nice inside/outside balance and feel like he has a lot of ways he can fit into a midfield at AFL level.

8 & 9 Mattaes Phillipou and Cam Mackenzie
10. Jedd Busslinger

11 & 12 Harry Lemmey and Harry Barnett

Keeping Lemmey here isn't really defensible, especially given I have him ahead of all the other key forwards in this draft. I just can't quite let go of the picture I had of him from last year. Not quite ready to jump off yet (again, stubborn/stupid). Barnett has everything that I want to see from a key position player and is pretty close to jumping Lemmey (he may have already).

13-15 Harry Cole, Alwyn DaveyJr and Oliver Hollands
Clarke slides out of this group on the back of others showing a little more of what I wanted to see through the Champs. Harry Cole is one I'm really loving at the moment and is my recency bias riser. I just love his size, speed and athleticism. He's got forward craft too and if he can ever put it together as a midfielder I think he could be pretty special.

16-24 Charlie Clarke, Max Michalanney, Noah Long, Aaron Cadman, Isaac Keeler, Matthew Jefferson, Lachie Cowan, Lewis Hayes, Jaspa Fletcher
I think this is where I'd have to strongly consider the keys. Even if I'm not all the way there yet, I'd rather take the upside of Cadman, Keeler or Jefferson in this range compared to most other prospects. I like the smalls that can get up and down the ground, move the ball well, apply forward pressure and hit the scoreboard. I think Long and Clarke can do all of those things at AFL level and while they can, I think there is a role for them there. I believe in what Michalanney looks like at AFL level and can see him fitting in as a versatile defender and attacking option out of the back half. Lewis Hayes is the second best KPD in my view and I think Fletcher is a super smooth operator. I think he forges a career at AFL level. Cowan's inclusion is less on recent form and more just an assessment of the physical attributes and weapons.

Jakob Ryan, Billy Dowling and Reuben Ginbey are all pretty close. I still like what I see from Walker, Lovelock and Sadler more than Dowling in particular, but I think Dowling probably has the higher ceiling. Lovelock is still my guy though.

I need to do more work on Brayden George (still), Oli Hotton, Bailey Humphrey and Jack O'Sullivan. There's a world where each of them fits into my top 25.
say you're a club who had too long relied on a second coming key forward to kick all your goals, then up and left despite the family name being royalty.
And suddenly you have a draft pick after a F/S around pick 16.
There's a 2m giant whose turned out alright as your FF and a mobile lanky kid who's best suited to the third tall role in your side.

To pick a CHF, who do you go? Probably wanting some impact in 2-3 years time
 

ModernArtillery

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say you're a club who had too long relied on a second coming key forward to kick all your goals, then up and left despite the family name being royalty.
And suddenly you have a draft pick after a F/S around pick 16.
There's a 2m giant whose turned out alright as your FF and a mobile lanky kid who's best suited to the third tall role in your side.

To pick a CHF, who do you go? Probably wanting some impact in 2-3 years time
It's Cadman or Lemmey I think. I'd personally take Lemmey. I think he's more suited to playing a high CHF role, rather than as a deep forward. Both he and Cadman are really strong on the lead, but I'd probably say advantage Lemmey in terms of his ball use around the ground and heading inside 50. You can never be too upset with the extra size either. Rewind six months and I would've been very convinced Lemmey was more AFL-ready. I still feel that way, but the form line makes it less convincing.
 

eaglespremiers

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It's Cadman or Lemmey I think. I'd personally take Lemmey. I think he's more suited to playing a high CHF role, rather than as a deep forward. Both he and Cadman are really strong on the lead, but I'd probably say advantage Lemmey in terms of his ball use around the ground and heading inside 50. You can never be too upset with the extra size either. Rewind six months and I would've been very convinced Lemmey was more AFL-ready. I still feel that way, but the form line makes it less convincing.
Will either be available?
I would think there's a good chance that at least Cadman will be taken. Lemmey should be available but it wouldn't be totally unrealistic that he also gone.
 

ModernArtillery

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Will either be available?
I would think there's a good chance that at least Cadman will be taken. Lemmey should be available but it wouldn't be totally unrealistic that he also gone.
To be honest I overlooked the position of the selection. Are we talking after pick 16? Not sure if I've interpreted that correctly. If it is, I think you're right. Unlikely Cadman is available, but highly likely Lemmey is at this stage.
 

blueiris

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Cadman is considered a top 10 prospect but the Forward I really like is Jefferson seems highly unlikely the Lions get a key forward this year with both Ashcroft and Fletcher now rated as top 20 picks looking at next years draft are there any Key forwards available next year ?
 

ModernArtillery

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Cadman is considered a top 10 prospect but the Forward I really like is Jefferson seems highly unlikely the Lions get a key forward this year with both Ashcroft and Fletcher now rated as top 20 picks looking at next years draft are there any Key forwards available next year ?
Archer Reid and Jed Walter are the two that are really on the radar at the moment. Reid is legit 200cm+ and a pretty smooth mover for his size. Walter is about the 193-194cm but much more developed. He still moves pretty well and is coming off a strong U18 Champs as a bottom ager. I prefer Reid at the moment though.

Riak Andrew is Melbourne NGA and brother of Mac. I'll be honest, I haven't really seen him, but would be worth tracking as someone who could play at either end. He's a really late birthday next year, so he's still really, really young.

My man Patty Weckert kicked 8 goals in his debut game for the Eagles in the SANFL Reserves. He's not the smoothest mover but is a strong vertical athlete and can absolutely roost the footy.

The medium forwards are where it's at next year though!
 

wimpy

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Archer Reid and Jed Walter are the two that are really on the radar at the moment. Reid is legit 200cm+ and a pretty smooth mover for his size. Walter is about the 193-194cm but much more developed. He still moves pretty well and is coming off a strong U18 Champs as a bottom ager. I prefer Reid at the moment though.

Riak Andrew is Melbourne NGA and brother of Mac. I'll be honest, I haven't really seen him, but would be worth tracking as someone who could play at either end. He's a really late birthday next year, so he's still really, really young.

My man Patty Weckert kicked 8 goals in his debut game for the Eagles in the SANFL Reserves. He's not the smoothest mover but is a strong vertical athlete and can absolutely roost the footy.

The medium forwards are where it's at next year though!
An excellent debut from Weckert. Very instinctive, great hands and has a kick like a mule.
Also at 17y.o. he is also in SACA's U19 state cricket squad, just a natural sportsman. Another that will have to make a decision between the two sports.
 

ModernArtillery

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How tall is weckert?
I vaguely remember seeing him listed at 195cm early this season, which would be a fair growth spurt from the 188cm he was listed as at the start of last year. Of course I can't find a current measurement anywhere..
 

Oldest Tiger

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Have not seen any write up of Angus Anderson (Allies). Overager that more than held his own as a contested mid against the more well known candidates. His point of difference is as a defensive inside mid that also accumulates. Believe his is captain of NSW Academy?
 

TDS7

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Will McCabe SA's M.V.P. (overager) at the recent U16's Nationals playing defence but he's played forward for Centrals U18's
Hawk F/S as well. C'mon Gil & successor, hold out on the rule change just a few more years.