Most important Carlton forward - Poll

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

The question was actually quite ambiguous and I like the different interpretations that people are bringing to it.
'Most important' could be immediate impact from the start of the year. Most important to structure. Most likely to be our leading goal scorer. Most important to the team from a future perspective.
Most of the disagreements that I've read have stemmed from people using different interpretations of the question.

 

[Windhover]

The question was actually quite ambiguous and I like the different interpretations that people are bringing to it.
'Most important' could be immediate impact from the start of the year. Most important to structure. Most likely to be our leading goal scorer. Most important to the team from a future perspective.
Most of the disagreements that I've read have stemmed from people using different interpretations of the question.

You are right that differences of opinion stem largely from different interpretations of the meaning of "importance".

You will have noted, no doubt, that my interpretation aligns closely with your first suggested interpreation "most important to structure".

IMO it would be wrong to determine importance by simplistically working out who will be the leading goal scorer.

Likewise it is clearly wrong to take into account developments beyond 2017. The OP specifically referred to "the boys aren't coming back until next week". "The boys" is of course a reference to all the players on our list for 2017.

Speculation as to whether McKay will become the most important forward on our list in future years is dependent on a number of matters including, but not limited to say a mature KPF being recruited, the recruitment and development of Ben SOSOS and the hope that McKay's development in 2017 is all that is hoped for (i.e. hope on hope).

Therefore to argue McKay is the most important forward on our list for 2017 because of what he is hoped to be able to achieve in say 2020 onwards is to promote unanchored speculation as to what our list will be like in 2020 (not even knowing the composition of the list in 2020) over reasonable speculation of what our list will be like this year. But that, it seems, is what the McKay voters have done.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

You are right that differences of opinion stem largely from different interpretations of the meaning of "importance".

You will have noted, no doubt, that my interpretation aligns closely with your first suggested interpreation "most important to structure".

IMO it would be wrong to determine importance by simplistically working out who will be the leading goal scorer.

Likewise it is clearly wrong to take into account developments beyond 2017. The OP specifically referred to "the boys aren't coming back until next week". "The boys" is of course a reference to all the players on our list for 2017.

Speculation as to whether McKay will become the most important forward on our list in future years is dependent on a number of matters including, but not limited to say a mature KPF being recruited, the recruitment and development of Ben SOSOS and the hope that McKay's development in 2017 is all that is hoped for (i.e. hope on hope).

Therefore to argue McKay is the most important forward on our list for 2017 because of what he is hoped to be able to achieve in say 2020 onwards is to promote unanchored speculation as to what our list will be like in 2020 (not even knowing the composition of the list in 2020) over reasonable speculation of what our list will be like this year. But that, it seems, is what the McKay voters have done.

I feel you've read more into it than what is needed. It's not 'clearly wrong' for somebody to interpret the question differently when there were no specific guidelines. You're speculating on the OP's intended meaning.

 

[Soapy V]

You will have noted, no doubt, that my interpretation aligns closely with your first suggested interpreation "most important to structure".

This is the issue for me. What is our "structure"? Seems most people still think we need a big CHF & FF like a decade ago. Watching the side last year it looked as though Bolton was really trying to play with a mobile forward line of 3-4 players. The rest were pushing up the ground as extra mids and into defence. Most times he had Casboult Silvagni maybe Everitt and 1 or 2 mobile players. A lot of times when it wasn't delivered well into forward 50 the ball was just run out with ease. It was bad.

I have no doubt Bolton will keep trying to develop that system. It's modern footy. It's what the Bulldogs, Hawks try to do most of the time. I think we will eventually go with McKay as a tall target supported by Silvagni, maybe Charlie and mids/smalls. At times a ruckman will push forward for a chop out. As much as anything it will be our ball use into the forward line that will be just as important. How many times do you see a Rioli or a Dailhaus actually take a mark on a lead or in space? I don't like it as I miss the days of a big FF/CHF but it's the way the game is going

 

[Jimmae]

The question was actually quite ambiguous and I like the different interpretations that people are bringing to it.
'Most important' could be immediate impact from the start of the year. Most important to structure. Most likely to be our leading goal scorer. Most important to the team from a future perspective.
Most of the disagreements that I've read have stemmed from people using different interpretations of the question.

There's plenty of 'best' threads already here, so if this is supposed to be a thread about immediate value, it's both depressing and redundant.

If it's about structure, McKay helps us modernise our forward 50 setup compared to last year. If it's about overall value in terms of reaching loftier goals in 2018 & 2019, then it's still McKay.

The only time Kreuzer or Levi come into the conversation is if we ask the question: if we have a must-win game tomorrow, who do you pick at full forward?

I do not agree I am conflating (do you mean "confusing") "important" with "best 22". For the reasons I gave IMO Kreuzer's form up forward will be the most important determinant of the success of our forward line in 2017.

To conflate means to combine two concepts. In this case the idea of importance being significantly original, influential, and of value in the longer term, versus the best immediate choice. You have conflated these two ideas here.

If we are using Kreuzer or Levi as a number #1 forward this year, our system is unlikely to change significantly, particularly if Levi is the guy.

you expressly admit to confusing "most important Carlton forward" (since you admit McKay won't be the #1 guy) with "the Carlton forward with the biggest blue sky development prospects in the years beyond 2017". I agree McKay ticks that box but fail to see how that makes him our most important forward this year.

The question posed on this thread, who is our most important forward must be equivalent to "who will be our #1 guy on the forward line". Kreuzer for mine.

To align a question of importance with a question of best - of status or immediate value - is a highly subjective concept, and as I have already said it is arguably a moot point when you consider the current value of Levi & Kreuzer (and maybe Rowe and Phillips if you want to throw in the short list of strong bodies at our disposal).

McKay's potential alone makes him a more significant puzzle piece, whether he realises this potential or not, because in determining him, we better determine our fortunes than in dropping in known quantities that are extremely unlikely to offer improvement.

Perhaps if I phrased this question as more of an ethical dilemma (and a rather macabre one) you might grasp it:

All of Carlton's forward group are in a burning house and unconscious. You are the only person on the scene and you know you only have time to save one. Outwardly, they possess only their football ability on which to judge their value to society. Who do you save? How do you choose?

 

[Soapy V]

I look at it two ways:

1. If I had to try and win a game tomorrow I would pick something like:

Kerridge Rowe Armfield
Wright Kruezer Sumner

This is purely because these guys are AFL ready and will give the effort. Not an option that fills me with confidence but it's all we have and why we have struggled

2. Building and developing our next forward line that will hopefully take us Top 4 and beyond which I hope we are doing. Not ready but need the experience:

Pickett Charlie Fisher
LeBois McKay Silvagni

Charlie, Fisher & Pickett are part of the midfield/running group that includes Murphy Gibbs Cripps SPS Cuningham Palmer all pushing through there.

 

[thylacine60]

I feel you've read more into it than what is needed. It's not 'clearly wrong' for somebody to interpret the question differently when there were no specific guidelines. You're speculating on the OP's intended meaning.

When all else fails play the semantic card.

 

[Jabba73]

When all else fails play the semantic card.

Is that like a skip or draw four?

 

[Azul]

Can Matty Wright avoid the curse?

Betts leading goalkicker 2012. FA 2013.
Garlett leading goalkicker 2013. Traded 2014.
Waite leading goalkicker 2014. FA 2014.
Everitt leading goalkicker 2015. Delisted 2016.

Wright leading goalkicker 2016.

 

[thylacine60]

not sure I follow.........

 

[Jabba73]

not sure I follow.........

NANE

 

[GapInIkonPark]

Can Matty Wright avoid the curse?

Betts leading goalkicker 2012. FA 2013.
Garlett leading goalkicker 2013. Traded 2014.
Waite leading goalkicker 2014. FA 2014.
Everitt leading goalkicker 2015. Delisted 2016.

Wright leading goalkicker 2016.

Good post Azul.

Kennedy and Henderson were up there in our leading goal kickers too.

What chance that Casboult tops our goal-kicking in Season 2017 and is a FA out too?

 

[mikeythemoocow]

Im worried that Ben might be better than Harry

 

[thylacine60]

Same.....and disgusted to say it.

 

[Jabba73]

Unpopular (and wrong) opinions thread

 

[Jimmae]

Ben only played two good VFL games last year, one of them against our depleted defence. Harry was about as good as him after a long injury lay off and virtually no pre-season.

Don't buy into the whole 'twins are exactly the same physical specimen' nonsense. Between the ears they are different people (though some are arguing Ben has an advantage due to his aggression, while simultaneously ignoring his history with depression at what is a fairly early age), and then there's a whole layer of gene expression controlled through environment and physiological upkeep (epigenetics).

They might have the same DNA, but they literally express it differently. Harry still has the edge over Ben at this point, and nothing in his character or work to this point suggests otherwise. You only need to look at how often the whole twin/sibling thing falls over in drafting to know that simple traits or purely picking on pedigree is no guarantee of anything. People are complicated, even when they try not to be.

EDIT: re-worded for clarification

 

[thylacine60]

who said twins are the same?

 

[Jimmae]

who said twins are the same?

Sorry I should clarify: no identical twins are necessarily going to physically develop the same.

 

[Prem17]

Like it or not, it's gonna be McKay now that Phillips has injured his foot.
Casboult will be ahead of Gorringe for a second ruck spot.
That will mean that McKay, Gorringe, Curnow and Silvagni will have to come on quickly.
If Phillips is out for a long time I'd expect either Rowe or Weitering to spend a lot of time forward as well, maybe even both.
Whichever way it turns out, we won't be able to rely on 1st or second year key forwards to kick 40+ goals for the season.
I think the better way forward is to develop a fast midfield that runs forward in waves, tackles like there's no tomorrow and maximizes every opportunity.
Then once the forwards develop size and experience, we will be hard to stop from scoring.

 

[BlueRenaissance]

Ben only played two good VFL games last year, one of them against our depleted defence. Harry was about as good as him after a long injury lay off and virtually no pre-season.

Don't buy into the whole 'twins are the same' nonsense. Between the ears they are different people (though some are arguing Ben has an advantage due to his aggression, while simultaneously ignoring his history with depression at what is a fairly early age), and then there's a whole layer of gene expression controlled through environment and physiological upkeep (epigenetics).

They might have the same DNA, but they literally express it differently. Harry still has the edge over Ben at this point, and nothing in his character or work to this point suggests otherwise. You only need to look at how often the whole twin/sibling thing falls over in drafting to know that simple traits or purely picking on pedigree will dramatically change an outcome.

It's great having an expert in house.

Most of us are low brow here. Could we summarise and just call it 'the vibe'.

 

[Jimmae]

Like it or not, it's gonna be McKay now that Phillips has injured his foot.
Casboult will be ahead of Gorringe for a second ruck spot.
That will mean that McKay, Gorringe, Curnow and Silvagni will have to come on quickly.
If Phillips is out for a long time I'd expect either Rowe or Weitering to spend a lot of time forward as well, maybe even both.
Whichever way it turns out, we won't be able to rely on 1st or second year key forwards to kick 40+ goals for the season.
I think the better way forward is to develop a fast midfield that runs forward in waves, tackles like there's no tomorrow and maximizes every opportunity.
Then once the forwards develop size and experience, we will be hard to stop from scoring.

8 weeks for Phillips according to McKay, so he's still in the frame for Round 1, though barely.

 

[zeeCFC]

Ben only played two good VFL games last year, one of them against our depleted defence. Harry was about as good as him after a long injury lay off and virtually no pre-season.

Don't buy into the whole 'twins are the same' nonsense. Between the ears they are different people (though some are arguing Ben has an advantage due to his aggression, while simultaneously ignoring his history with depression at what is a fairly early age), and then there's a whole layer of gene expression controlled through environment and physiological upkeep (epigenetics).

They might have the same DNA, but they literally express it differently. Harry still has the edge over Ben at this point, and nothing in his character or work to this point suggests otherwise. You only need to look at how often the whole twin/sibling thing falls over in drafting to know that simple traits or purely picking on pedigree will dramatically change an outcome.

This is an over analysis of two very young men who probably haven't stopped forming their personalities and who have played very little football for two different teams at different stages of development.

All I know is, from the 25 or so collective minutes of football I've seen Harry play, he plays with good aggression and movement for a big guy and talks well on the few CFCTV interviews.

Ben looked great in the couple of the VFL games I saw, North would be VERY happy with those signs. Good on them both, it would sting a little if Ben was better but it would only be marginal because H has an incredibly high ceiling.

 

[Jimmae]

This is an over analysis of two very young men who probably haven't stopped forming their personalities and who have played very little football for two different teams at different stages of development.

All I know is, from the 25 or so collective minutes of football I've seen Harry play, he plays with good aggression and movement for a big guy and talks well on the few CFCTV interviews.

Ben looked great in the couple of the VFL games I saw, North would be VERY happy with those signs. Good on them both, it would sting a little if Ben was better but it would only be marginal because H has an incredibly high ceiling.

I agree with you! Re-reading my post, I need to tidy it up a bit because I've dropped a key word or two that completely changes the context of it.

 

[Jimmae]

And for the record, I reckon Harry wins out because he is physically fitter and a better field kick. Ben's going to take 2 years to catch-up, assuming Harry lets him.

 

[ferrisb]

I agree with you! Re-reading my post, I need to tidy it up a bit because I've dropped a key word or two that completely changes the context of it.

Did you dictate your post to HBF to type up?