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The NAB Cup grand final is finally here. For most, the excitement over this game will purely be the knowledge that it is the final practice match before the real stuff begins. For Collingwood fans, a chance to finally win some form of grand final is sure to create enough interest. Thankfully, despite the ugly footy we’ve witnessed, 4 big Victorian clubs made it through to the semi final stage. Collingwood will face Geelong this Friday night in the NAB cup decider.
As has been the case in the previous few weeks, this preview will not go into depth in strategic analysis. The uncertainty of the squads and the uncertainty of mindset makes it hard to predict how the teams will line-up. However, thankfully we should see 2 close to full strength sides take the park on Friday night.
That said, there is undoubtedly a different mindset for these 2 clubs. Geelong to this stage has rotated its star players. Collingwood on the other hand has played a much stronger side. Further, Geelong’s focus must be on the round 1 Grand Final rematch with Hawthorn which is only a fortnight away. Collingwood on the other hand seems hell bent on winning the NAB cup and sending a message to the competition that it is still a premiership contender.
Perhaps this difference in mindset was evident in the semi-final. Collingwood was merciless against an undermanned Essendon team (despite also electing to rest Fraser and Maxwell). Geelong on the other hand scrapped a messy victory against a terribly undermanned Carlton side. Geelong also elected to rest key players, but the calibre of players on the park in comparison to the Blues should’ve been enough for a 50 point win.
But that might be a bit overstated. The Cats did look sharp enough against Adelaide and Pt.Adelaide. And looking at things from a different perspective, it is easy to come to the conclusion that Collingwood is yet to beat a formidable opponent…nor an opponent fielding a strong team. The test comes this week.
Recent history between the clubs is an interesting consideration. Though Geelong have won 2 of the last 3 encounters, it is widely believed Collingwood troubles Geelong. The last encounter between these sides saw Collingwood run away 86 point winners. Amazingly, this was Geelong’s only loss for the home and away season. Collingwood’s 2 losses to Geelong in 2007 were very close, including a 5 point defeat in the preliminary final.
So why do Collingwood trouble Geelong?
Footy is a funny game. Though Collingwood seems to consistently worry the Cats, it loses to much lesser opponents consistently.
First of all, Collingwood simply match-up well against Geelong. I think Collingwood struggles most when they face a giant at Centre Half Forward. Though Mooney can be a match-winner…he is not as dangerous as the Franklin, Fevola, Brown or Pavlich types. Collingwood was able to cover Mooney and hold him to 1 goal in round 9 last year. On the other hand, both Fevola and Franklin kicked big bags in their meetings. Perhaps young Tom Hawkins will have a say.
Also, although Geelong’s midfield is one of the best in the game, it is not the quickest in terms of footspeed. The Geelong ball movement is as quick as anyone, but can be matched for leg speed. Leg speed is an issue in the Collingwood midfield.
Further, Geelong do allow you a lot of the ball. Collingwood has been able to trouble with its dangerous small forwards. Didak, Medhurst and Davis all kicked multiple goals in the last meeting. Didak also won 26 disposals. Though Geelong had only 1 less disposal in the game, it went down by 86 points. Corey and Ablett each had the ball 29 times.
The obvious reason Collingwood won last time was pressure. Geelong love handballing across half back. Collingwood’s forward pressure was unbelievable. Lockyer playing as a defensive forward took 9 tackles, Thomas 7. Burns also took 7 tackles, as did Wellingham playing on Ablett Jnr. Even Didak and Medhurst took 3 tackles which is good for small forwards.
So far in the NAB cup, Geelong has had the tendency to over handball. They had 140 in a half against the Blues. This will play into Collingwood’s hands. Collingwood has looked to play guys like Dane Swan, Lockyer, Pendlebury, Macaffer and Davis forward simply to apply pressure on the ball carriers. It worked against both Richmond and Essendon who also try to move the ball quickly by hand.
At the selection Table
Geelong will most likely bring back Selwood, Bartel, Enright, Mackie and Blake. They will also most likely use Steve Johnson in a greater role as he was only a sub against Carlton and played 1 half. He looked very sharp. Scarlett was also subbed off at half time along with Tom Hawkins. Ryan Gamble may also return.
Collingwood will have to make room for Fraser and Maxwell who will return. Heath Shaw is supposedly struggling with back problems. Rocca and Medhurst are close but I doubt will be risked. Travis Cloke is reportedly fine after rolling his ankle last week.
Geelong also played an inexperienced side last week. Players in the side who I do not think are in their starting 22 include Djerrkura, Moles, McKenna, Simpson, West, David Johnson, Laidler and Shannon Byrnes. Young Hogan has impressed throughout the pre-season but was quiet against Carlton. I think he is in line for a round 1 selection after nearly breaking into the side late last year. You would think if the Cats are serious, it will be the names from this list that make way for their superstars to return.
Collingwood on the other hand has a selection dilemma. Last week Goldsack and Bryan played fantastic games. Bryan had 12 hitouts, 15 disposals, 9 marks and 2 goals playing as the number 1 ruck and forward. He is the logical omission to make way for Fraser…although Cameron Wood has had a quiet fortnight. I think it may be Wood who has to make way.
Goldsack was also impressive with 18 disposals and 7 marks playing in defence. His poise under pressure and speed off the mark make him a good matchup for both talls and smalls. He could even be a good matchup for young Ryan Gamble. But he seems a Maxwell replacement at this stage.
I would hate to think that either of Beams or Sidebottom would be dropped after both were incredibly impressive last week. Beams in particular has put together 2 very solid performances kicking goals in each game. His 17 disposals against Essendon were very sharp. Sidebottom on debut was the shining light with 19 disposals and 7 marks.
I don’t think our best side incorporates Leigh Brown and Corrie. Both were quiet last week. Corrie in particular was unsighted, only picking up 3 disposals. It may be he who makes way.
Collingwood may also be considering bringing back Wellingham who has been playing well in the VFL. Wellingham’s tagging job on Ablett in the first quarter in round 9 last year really set the tone of the game. His 7 tackles were inspirational, and he was also able to win a lot of the ball himself. Without Rhyce Shaw, we no long have anyone with the footspeed and durability to run with Ablett. Wellingham may be recalled for this task. John McCarthy was also given very limited gametime in the NAB cup and the impressive onballer may be recalled. Barham tried his guts out against Essendon but never really got into the game so he may make way.
I think it will be kept pretty simple. My prediction would be:
In: Fraser, Maxwell, Wellingham
Out: Wood, Corrie, Barham
Obviously Heath Shaw is in doubt so may not be risked.
The Matchups
As I said, I will not go into too much detail here given this is ultimately still a practice match and I think the main focus of teams will be their own gameplan as opposed to worrying about opposition.
It will be interesting to see whether Collingwood employ the zone defence against Geelong. Geelong did a good job against the zone in the Grand Final in 08, but let itself down on the scoreboard. I doubt a rolling zone would be extremely effective against the Cats again. The reason been I think pressure on the ball carrier off half back is the key. In the past few weeks, we have pretty much put every player in the back half.
However, given the ridiculous NAB Cup rule which disallows backwards kicking and requires a ball to travel 20 metres for a mark to be allowed….the rolling zone has merit because it forces a side to kick backwards…which effectively forces clubs to play on. Instead of chipping and maintaining possession, Geelong would be forced to put the ball back into play where Collingwood could then impose its tackling pressure.
Scarlett will most likely play on Cloke. With no Rocca, you would think Thompson would put his best defender on Collingwood’s most dangerous forward. Especially since Cloke beat Harry Taylor last year kicking 4 goals. However, the emergence of John Anthony may cause Thompson to put his star defender onto him. Anthony is coming off a 7 goal game…and if my memory serves me correctly, Anthony has kicked a goal in every senior game he has played.
Milburn, Enright and Mackie will most likely share Didak, Davis and Thomas when forward. I do think Malthouse will continue with the experiment of playing Thomas across Half back…but I am sure Daisy will spend time up forward.
At the other end, I think Prestigiacomo will take Hawkins. Otherwise Nathan Brown will get the job. Harry O’Brien played a blinder of a game on Steve Johnson last year, so I think Collingwood will use the same matchup again, although Toovey is the more logical candidate I think. Toovey may be required to move onto the in form Stokes.
Ottens was the destroyer in the preliminary final in 2007, but did not play against Collingwood in the 86 point defeat. Fraser on the other hand did not play in the 07 final, but was there for round 9 in 08. So it will be interesting to see these 2 square off. Blake and Ottens will undoubtedly have the ascendency in the hitouts, but Fraser is looking extremely fit and could cause Mark Blake in particular a lot of trouble around the ground. Whether Malthouse elects to go with Bryan or Wood will also have a say on the match. Wood will be more competitive in the hitouts, but Bryan is an imposing figure in the forward line.
The wrap up
Although it is only a practice game, this will be the best indicator to date on where Collingwood sits. Geelong may be a little flat since its star players have not had much to do to date, but the Cats will be no pushover. You would still have to send the Cats in as favourites. The midfield is simply too good. But Collingwood’s form and confidence is up and they have seemed the most intent out of all sides to win this cup.
No matter what I think we’ll see a cracking game. We’ll finally see 2 really strong sides play some honest football.
And ultimately I think it will be Collingwood who prevails by 10 points. The sole reason been that I think Geelong’s mind has been on round 1 for a long time and they would be merely using this as a dress-rehearsal.
But it is a Grand Final….and allow me some bias when I say GOOOOO PIESSSSSS.
As has been the case in the previous few weeks, this preview will not go into depth in strategic analysis. The uncertainty of the squads and the uncertainty of mindset makes it hard to predict how the teams will line-up. However, thankfully we should see 2 close to full strength sides take the park on Friday night.
That said, there is undoubtedly a different mindset for these 2 clubs. Geelong to this stage has rotated its star players. Collingwood on the other hand has played a much stronger side. Further, Geelong’s focus must be on the round 1 Grand Final rematch with Hawthorn which is only a fortnight away. Collingwood on the other hand seems hell bent on winning the NAB cup and sending a message to the competition that it is still a premiership contender.
Perhaps this difference in mindset was evident in the semi-final. Collingwood was merciless against an undermanned Essendon team (despite also electing to rest Fraser and Maxwell). Geelong on the other hand scrapped a messy victory against a terribly undermanned Carlton side. Geelong also elected to rest key players, but the calibre of players on the park in comparison to the Blues should’ve been enough for a 50 point win.
But that might be a bit overstated. The Cats did look sharp enough against Adelaide and Pt.Adelaide. And looking at things from a different perspective, it is easy to come to the conclusion that Collingwood is yet to beat a formidable opponent…nor an opponent fielding a strong team. The test comes this week.
Recent history between the clubs is an interesting consideration. Though Geelong have won 2 of the last 3 encounters, it is widely believed Collingwood troubles Geelong. The last encounter between these sides saw Collingwood run away 86 point winners. Amazingly, this was Geelong’s only loss for the home and away season. Collingwood’s 2 losses to Geelong in 2007 were very close, including a 5 point defeat in the preliminary final.
So why do Collingwood trouble Geelong?
Footy is a funny game. Though Collingwood seems to consistently worry the Cats, it loses to much lesser opponents consistently.
First of all, Collingwood simply match-up well against Geelong. I think Collingwood struggles most when they face a giant at Centre Half Forward. Though Mooney can be a match-winner…he is not as dangerous as the Franklin, Fevola, Brown or Pavlich types. Collingwood was able to cover Mooney and hold him to 1 goal in round 9 last year. On the other hand, both Fevola and Franklin kicked big bags in their meetings. Perhaps young Tom Hawkins will have a say.
Also, although Geelong’s midfield is one of the best in the game, it is not the quickest in terms of footspeed. The Geelong ball movement is as quick as anyone, but can be matched for leg speed. Leg speed is an issue in the Collingwood midfield.
Further, Geelong do allow you a lot of the ball. Collingwood has been able to trouble with its dangerous small forwards. Didak, Medhurst and Davis all kicked multiple goals in the last meeting. Didak also won 26 disposals. Though Geelong had only 1 less disposal in the game, it went down by 86 points. Corey and Ablett each had the ball 29 times.
The obvious reason Collingwood won last time was pressure. Geelong love handballing across half back. Collingwood’s forward pressure was unbelievable. Lockyer playing as a defensive forward took 9 tackles, Thomas 7. Burns also took 7 tackles, as did Wellingham playing on Ablett Jnr. Even Didak and Medhurst took 3 tackles which is good for small forwards.
So far in the NAB cup, Geelong has had the tendency to over handball. They had 140 in a half against the Blues. This will play into Collingwood’s hands. Collingwood has looked to play guys like Dane Swan, Lockyer, Pendlebury, Macaffer and Davis forward simply to apply pressure on the ball carriers. It worked against both Richmond and Essendon who also try to move the ball quickly by hand.
At the selection Table
Geelong will most likely bring back Selwood, Bartel, Enright, Mackie and Blake. They will also most likely use Steve Johnson in a greater role as he was only a sub against Carlton and played 1 half. He looked very sharp. Scarlett was also subbed off at half time along with Tom Hawkins. Ryan Gamble may also return.
Collingwood will have to make room for Fraser and Maxwell who will return. Heath Shaw is supposedly struggling with back problems. Rocca and Medhurst are close but I doubt will be risked. Travis Cloke is reportedly fine after rolling his ankle last week.
Geelong also played an inexperienced side last week. Players in the side who I do not think are in their starting 22 include Djerrkura, Moles, McKenna, Simpson, West, David Johnson, Laidler and Shannon Byrnes. Young Hogan has impressed throughout the pre-season but was quiet against Carlton. I think he is in line for a round 1 selection after nearly breaking into the side late last year. You would think if the Cats are serious, it will be the names from this list that make way for their superstars to return.
Collingwood on the other hand has a selection dilemma. Last week Goldsack and Bryan played fantastic games. Bryan had 12 hitouts, 15 disposals, 9 marks and 2 goals playing as the number 1 ruck and forward. He is the logical omission to make way for Fraser…although Cameron Wood has had a quiet fortnight. I think it may be Wood who has to make way.
Goldsack was also impressive with 18 disposals and 7 marks playing in defence. His poise under pressure and speed off the mark make him a good matchup for both talls and smalls. He could even be a good matchup for young Ryan Gamble. But he seems a Maxwell replacement at this stage.
I would hate to think that either of Beams or Sidebottom would be dropped after both were incredibly impressive last week. Beams in particular has put together 2 very solid performances kicking goals in each game. His 17 disposals against Essendon were very sharp. Sidebottom on debut was the shining light with 19 disposals and 7 marks.
I don’t think our best side incorporates Leigh Brown and Corrie. Both were quiet last week. Corrie in particular was unsighted, only picking up 3 disposals. It may be he who makes way.
Collingwood may also be considering bringing back Wellingham who has been playing well in the VFL. Wellingham’s tagging job on Ablett in the first quarter in round 9 last year really set the tone of the game. His 7 tackles were inspirational, and he was also able to win a lot of the ball himself. Without Rhyce Shaw, we no long have anyone with the footspeed and durability to run with Ablett. Wellingham may be recalled for this task. John McCarthy was also given very limited gametime in the NAB cup and the impressive onballer may be recalled. Barham tried his guts out against Essendon but never really got into the game so he may make way.
I think it will be kept pretty simple. My prediction would be:
In: Fraser, Maxwell, Wellingham
Out: Wood, Corrie, Barham
Obviously Heath Shaw is in doubt so may not be risked.
The Matchups
As I said, I will not go into too much detail here given this is ultimately still a practice match and I think the main focus of teams will be their own gameplan as opposed to worrying about opposition.
It will be interesting to see whether Collingwood employ the zone defence against Geelong. Geelong did a good job against the zone in the Grand Final in 08, but let itself down on the scoreboard. I doubt a rolling zone would be extremely effective against the Cats again. The reason been I think pressure on the ball carrier off half back is the key. In the past few weeks, we have pretty much put every player in the back half.
However, given the ridiculous NAB Cup rule which disallows backwards kicking and requires a ball to travel 20 metres for a mark to be allowed….the rolling zone has merit because it forces a side to kick backwards…which effectively forces clubs to play on. Instead of chipping and maintaining possession, Geelong would be forced to put the ball back into play where Collingwood could then impose its tackling pressure.
Scarlett will most likely play on Cloke. With no Rocca, you would think Thompson would put his best defender on Collingwood’s most dangerous forward. Especially since Cloke beat Harry Taylor last year kicking 4 goals. However, the emergence of John Anthony may cause Thompson to put his star defender onto him. Anthony is coming off a 7 goal game…and if my memory serves me correctly, Anthony has kicked a goal in every senior game he has played.
Milburn, Enright and Mackie will most likely share Didak, Davis and Thomas when forward. I do think Malthouse will continue with the experiment of playing Thomas across Half back…but I am sure Daisy will spend time up forward.
At the other end, I think Prestigiacomo will take Hawkins. Otherwise Nathan Brown will get the job. Harry O’Brien played a blinder of a game on Steve Johnson last year, so I think Collingwood will use the same matchup again, although Toovey is the more logical candidate I think. Toovey may be required to move onto the in form Stokes.
Ottens was the destroyer in the preliminary final in 2007, but did not play against Collingwood in the 86 point defeat. Fraser on the other hand did not play in the 07 final, but was there for round 9 in 08. So it will be interesting to see these 2 square off. Blake and Ottens will undoubtedly have the ascendency in the hitouts, but Fraser is looking extremely fit and could cause Mark Blake in particular a lot of trouble around the ground. Whether Malthouse elects to go with Bryan or Wood will also have a say on the match. Wood will be more competitive in the hitouts, but Bryan is an imposing figure in the forward line.
The wrap up
Although it is only a practice game, this will be the best indicator to date on where Collingwood sits. Geelong may be a little flat since its star players have not had much to do to date, but the Cats will be no pushover. You would still have to send the Cats in as favourites. The midfield is simply too good. But Collingwood’s form and confidence is up and they have seemed the most intent out of all sides to win this cup.
No matter what I think we’ll see a cracking game. We’ll finally see 2 really strong sides play some honest football.
And ultimately I think it will be Collingwood who prevails by 10 points. The sole reason been that I think Geelong’s mind has been on round 1 for a long time and they would be merely using this as a dress-rehearsal.
But it is a Grand Final….and allow me some bias when I say GOOOOO PIESSSSSS.
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