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List Mgmt. Nick Daicos

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The dogs tried to trade their first for a future first but ended up having to settle for later points picks. Clubs are pretty stingy when trading for picks that clubs need to move, even if they’re a top 10 pick it seems.

Their pick 14 doesn't scream top 10 pick or even top 6 like mentioned.

Trying to pawn off a known mid teens pick for a clubs projected low end but unknown first rounder was never going to happen and not really the parameters of the discussion.

Regardless the overall trade value they extracted from us was very high.
 

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Way I look at is futures trading whether footy players or stocks adds extra risk/reward because of the unknowns thrown into the mix

In this case we have an extra risk we are punting on other than just what the value of the pick ends up being. We are also punting that Nick Daicos will end up going for a higher pick than the value of the pick we traded to GWS

I know a lot of posters believe this is a given but it’s not. Nick has played virtually no footy against the group of kids he is going to be judged against. This is meant to be a strong draft. If Nick gets a chronic groin injury that slows his year, if he gets injuries that put him out, if he just has an off period in the champs etc etc he is likely to drift.

So on the 1st part of the equation I think Hime and GWS probably looked at that pick when traded and estimated it would fall in the 8-13 range ( us finishing 5-10 on ladder). At this point I would reckon the market would have changed that value to more like 5-10 range. Early days I know.

Even for an 8-13 estimate I don’t think the picks we got are a great deal. If McMahon or Poulter make the grade then it can pay off. Still they are a bit speculative even for early 30 picks. Poulter has only played SA U18 level and McMahon is a skinny KPF.

Best senario is Nick D kills it this year and we have a good year and make finals. Once Poulter or McMahon becomes a serious AFL player then the punt has clearly paid off. Worst senario is we finish bottom 4, GWS gets pick 4, Nick has a good but not great year and slips outside top 5 and neither Poulter or McMahon make it. Obviously a fair range of possibilities in between.

We have gone to the futures market and then added another gamble to the mix. It’s a high stakes game. Win big or get burned are all on the table.


Last think I would have held onto our 2021 1st for trading this year if Nick was going to burn it up. Say pick 6 certain would get us much more than why we got selling when we did. That’s a risk we didn’t need and this year already looked problematic by December. Clubs would compete and pay correct price for whatever that pick was.
My last post on this as it is a Nick D thread. If we secure a FA, let’s say Mitch Duncan (not a FA and not on our radar but a random name to show my point). Geelong will get say pick 15-18 as compo. Do you think they would ask for our 1st rounder if it’s between 6-12? I would and Hine/Guy would cop in the back again for not having the foresight to mitigate this possibility.

So any thought of holding onto that pick needs to take into account this possibility that we don’t know about, outside rumours, but Hine/Guy do know about.

The 2020 & 2021 trade/draft period should be considered on their combined result not in isolation, as much of what has transpired in 2020 was due to what Hine/Guy know will transpire in 2021. Trying to dissect, what is effectively half a list management window right now, is very tough.
 
NAB league debut tomorrow

plenty of other top 10 talents playing like Sinn, Chesser and Howes.

look forward to the reports. For all the pies fans attending maybe leave the pies gear at home to avoid too much pressure on the messiah.
 
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Nick is playing as a mid, going by the line ups.


He'll be wearing #3
 
Anyone been able to actually watch the game on the app today? I tried but just got a never ending loading screen
He is bog, helps being there live
 

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