List Mgmt. Nick Daicos

[unplugged]

Well he’ll definitely take it. It’s a matter of whether he keeps it in 2023 (I think he will)

I think so too. Might have to just get the 35 and take the punt

 

[Seedsfan]

Actually we traded it for McMahon, Poulter, and points for Daicos.

No we didn’t as we ended up with less points then what we had

 

[Seedsfan]

......

Lol. The trade last year was a gamble at best

 

[sr36]

Lol. The trade last year was a gamble at best

How you use draft picks is always a gamble, but it was one that would generally pay 3 to 1, but instead we took it at evens.

 

[Jelly Bean]

Why do people keep going on about this years first like we were somehow gonna get to use it? Daicos is going top 3 we wouldn't of had a first rounder anyway.

People are suggesting we would get more value from it if we waited until end of this year to trade it given we will probably be finishing lower than the initial return we got suggested

 

[Mkcaptain]

If he was born 4 days earlier he'd be playing AFL this weekend.

 

[Billys Back]

Picks are recruiting currency. Most picks get traded outside of the top half a dozen to ten. They don't usually get traded becasue they're perceived as too valuable. We sold one for a really cheap price. I can guarantee you that at the end of the year, we won't be able to trade Poulter and McMahon to get our pick back, wherever it sits. GWS would just laugh at us if we made that offer - obviously that may change if either or both of them look great.

At the end of this year, there's going to be a draft that at this stage most recruiters seem to think is going to be very strong.

If we still had it, our options would probably be:
Trade it for a future first - probably with some Daicos points coming back as well.
Trade it for a very ready made player, possibly with points coming back, depending on how highly the player is rated.
Trade it down in the 2021 draft to get enough points for Daicos, probably plus a decent pick and keeping our second round pick as well. So essentially, the same as what we got, but in a draft that is more highly rated and less speculative as it looks like they are going to play a fair bit of footy this year.

It may be that the club realises the list needs work fast and would rather have 2 kids they valued (+ points for Daicos) now who can get a couple of years development in the system rather than wait another 2 years.

And I suspect they could have misread the tea leaves and expected this pick to be around 12 in 2021.

We are only 4 games in and really only the last game was a bad loss. Should be 2-2 with wins against teams expected to be top 6.

Still too early to call.

 

[sr36]

It may be that the club realises the list needs work fast and would rather have 2 kids they valued (+ points for Daicos) now who can get a couple of years development in the system rather than wait another 2 years.

And I suspect they could have misread the tea leaves and expected this pick to be around 12 in 2021.

We are only 4 games in and really only the last game was a bad loss. Should be 2-2 with wins against teams expected to be top 6.

Still too early to call.

It's too early to call the result, but it's not too early to call that it was a bad low percentage decision.

 

[Gone Critical]

It's too early to call the result, but it's not too early to call that it was a bad low percentage decision.

Its too early to call but if you asked GWS how they feel about it currently they would feel very satisfied

The better news is Nicks sensational start to the year has almost certainly thrown out the very worst option of us finishing low and Nick slipping down the top 10 a bit

Still I am with sr36 in it was an unneeded gamble by a club spooked by a terrible off season. We have too many young mid range picks who are unproven. Could end up leaving a lead weight in our list unless these kids outperform expectations

 

[Billys Back]

It's too early to call the result, but it's not too early to call that it was a bad low percentage decision.

Not too sure how you can say that it was a bad low percentage decision.

Let’s say we didn’t trade it and it worked out to being pick 6 or 7 in 2021. We are a forced seller. What would you expect we would get in return?

 

[sr36]

Not too sure how you can say that it was a bad low percentage decision.

Let’s say we didn’t trade it and it worked out to being pick 6 or 7 in 2021. We are a forced seller. What would you expect we would get in return?

Heaps.

This isn't a bloke we're desperate to get rid of, with a high salary attached who will only be traded to one club.

It's a highly rated draft. All clubs will be interested in it. It'd be a bidding war. Do you think Hawthorn or whoever are going to go we want it, but seeing as they have to sell, we'll let Geelong have it for a bargain.

 

[Gone Critical]

Not too sure how you can say that it was a bad low percentage decision.

Let’s say we didn’t trade it and it worked out to being pick 6 or 7 in 2021. We are a forced seller. What would you expect we would get in return?

Absolutely expect more. GWS bought it thinking its range would be probably 8-12 in value (Collingwood finishing 6-10 in 2021). Once it solidifies at 6 in a good draft it's value goes way up. In the same way if we end up finishing 4th and it becomes pick 14 the gamble will have fallen our way.

Its basically futures trading and adds an extra level to the gamble for either better or worse. At this moment it looks likely to go worse for us

Also there is no way clubs are not going to bid on pick 6 if it was available. There would be a large number of clubs who would be interested and you would be entertaining multiple offers, especially for clubs eyeing off a kid who may go in that range

 

[Harry O]

Heaps.

This isn't a bloke we're desperate to get rid of, with a high salary attached who will only be traded to one club.

It's a highly rated draft. All clubs will be interested in it. It'd be a bidding war. Do you think Hawthorn or whoever are going to go we want it, but seeing as they have to sell, we'll let Geelong have it for a bargain.

It is no super draft. Top 6 or so are good but falls away after that

 

[sr36]

It is no super draft. Top 6 or so are good but falls away after that

Which would make a top 6 pick even more valuable. Although I'm hopeful that we end up better than that this year.

 

[Billys Back]

Absolutely expect more. GWS bought it thinking its range would be probably 8-12 in value (Collingwood finishing 6-10 in 2021). Once it solidifies at 6 in a good draft it's value goes way up. In the same way if we end up finishing 4th and it becomes pick 14 the gamble will have fallen our way.

Its basically futures trading and adds an extra level to the gamble for either better or worse. At this moment it looks likely to go worse for us

Also there is no way clubs are not going to bid on pick 6 if it was available. There would be a large number of clubs who would be interested and you would be entertaining multiple offers, especially for clubs eyeing off a kid who may go in that range

Yeah I know. But what I asked is what would you realistically expect to receive for pick 6/7 in this draft??

Maybe 2 picks in the teens?

 

[Billys Back]

Heaps.

This isn't a bloke we're desperate to get rid of, with a high salary attached who will only be traded to one club.

It's a highly rated draft. All clubs will be interested in it. It'd be a bidding war. Do you think Hawthorn or whoever are going to go we want it, but seeing as they have to sell, we'll let Geelong have it for a bargain.

so what would you expect????? Simple question. You suggest it was a no brainer to keep. I just want to get an idea on what you would expect to get this year which would place us in a significantly better position

 

[Sea fog]

So the gamble gets down to whether Poulter and McMahon become good players doesn't it? Because Poulter's value rose just prior to the draft and without that extra pick we may not have got him. McMahon sight unseen might prove to be more of a bargain last year if exposure this year saw his stocks rise.

 

[Pragmatic Shill]

If he was born 4 days earlier he'd be playing AFL this weekend.

If my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle. Kind of a moot point.

On SM-G981B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Billys Back]

So the gamble gets down to whether Poulter and McMahon become good players doesn't it? Because Poulter's value rose just prior to the draft and without that extra pick we may not have got him. McMahon sight unseen might prove to be more of a bargain last year if exposure this year saw his stocks rise.

And I think the potential upside in the 2020 draft from any of the top 50 could be significant given there was 12 months of no games. And we can’t Underestimate the value of getting these kids into the system now rather than in 2 years time. For all we know, Pendles, Sidey etc may not even be playing at that time.

 

[sr36]

Yeah I know. But what I asked is what would you realistically expect to receive for pick 6/7 in this draft??

Maybe 2 picks in the teens?

If the hype is true and Daicos goes top 3, at the moment, we're miles off the number of points we'll need for him. We're going to have to do some more trading to not go into deficit and have our 2022 first rounder get significantly downgraded. We gave ourselves no flexibility at all, which would have been ok if GWS paid top dollar, but they didn't.

 

[sr36]

so what would you expect????? Simple question. You suggest it was a no brainer to keep. I just want to get an idea on what you would expect to get this year which would place us in a significantly better position

2022 first rounder from a middle of the road team plus a decent number of points to use towards Daicos. A solid mid plus points. Enough points for Daicos, without needing to use our current draft picks for those points. The last one is similar to what we got, but we haven't paid the full price for getting in two middling picks, as we still need more points for Daicos.

 

[Billys Back]

2022 first rounder from a middle of the road team plus a decent number of points to use towards Daicos. A solid mid plus points. Enough points for Daicos, without needing to use our current draft picks for those points. The last one is similar to what we got, but we haven't paid the full price for getting in two middling picks, as we still need more points for Daicos.

So a pick in the mid teens for 2022 and maybe a pick in the 20s for 2021?

I can’t see how that is glaringly better than what we already received.

 

[unplugged]

We're death riding the Bulldogs, Fremantle and Adelaide this year. They've all started way too well considering we want their picks to be trash!

 

[sr36]

So a pick in the mid teens for 2022 and maybe a pick in the 20s for 2021?

I can’t see how that is glaringly better than what we already received.

The way I see it. We need enough points for Daicos as you'd have to be projecting us being worse next year than this year, so we can't go into deficit for a 1st round matching bid as that will lower what is likely to be a really valuable selection that we won't want downgraded.

If we had it still on the books, the least we could have got for it, if we weren't creative, is enough 2021 points for Daicos, as you can easily increase points by trading down.

This would have saved this years 2nd and 3rd. It also will probably save next year's second and third as there's a fair chance that we'll need to trade them for points. So the way I see it, we got in two picks in the early 30s for this year's second and 3rd plus probably next year's 2nd and 3rd - it was a short term gain for a future loss. Keep trading down for a short term gain, when you've already decided you're not in the window, and you're going to stay down - unless you're bloody lucky. We've got to cross our fingers and hope we got bloody lucky.

 

[Jen2310]

We're death riding the Bulldogs, Fremantle and Adelaide this year. They've all started way too well considering we want their picks to be trash!

Yup, we need their 2nd/3rd round picks to be lower than they currently are.