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No Passengers - Week 6

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Welcome to No Passengers - a weekly thread for Dream Team enthusiasts.

The No Passengers ideal is as the name implies - to make every player count.

The No Passengers philosophy applies to your Dream Team - to make every player earn his place in your squad through either producing the scores you desire, or by increasing in value so that you may upgrade other players (with the aim of filling your squad with as many premium players as possible).

The No Passengers philosophy also applies to your Dream Team league, where every league member is a dynamic component in a team. It recognises that no league can afford to carry non-performers.

Each week in No Passengers we would like to discuss topics like value players for trades, Captain selection, Rookie players, future trades and Individual player critiques.

To start with follow the links to see Player Critiques on:

Brent Stanton (week 3)
Brett Burton (week 3)
Travis Johnstone (week 4)
Sam Mitchell (week 4)
Heath Scotland (week 5)
Daniel Cross (week 5)
Travis Cloke (week 5)
Daniel Cross (week 6)
Jason Porplyzia (week 6)

Also we have a short discussion on the Choice of Captain and a discussion thread
 
Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

The question is, is K.Cornes worth an extra $70,000 than the Mitchells and the Scotlands?
My answer is YES.

I always like to get the best of the best.

Agreed...

I try not to follow the "upgrade your weakest link first" mentality, because I find that a much more efficient way is to choose your weakest 5-7 players from the start and upgrade them when the time is right, in whatever order.

Bingo. Your weakest link is by no means your greatest priority... :cool:

When you combine the theories of the post's above, your trading can be incredibly effective. Ruthless and risky, but very rewarding if all falls into place...

Conservative trading will get you nowhere.
 
Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

From what i remember, these are there break-even scores:
R.Dyson: 44
K.Cornes: 108

I am also looking at making this trade but i think Ricky is more chance of reaching his target than Kane.

The question is, is K.Cornes worth an extra $70,000 than the Mitchells and the Scotlands?
My answer is YES.

I always like to get the best of the best.
With that being said, some good discussion here would be to talk about the "premium" premiums in the midfield?

This is a clear example of where playing for a league victory differs from going for the overall prize. My league opponent this week is ranked in the top 50 and scored over 2100 last week. I acknowledge that Dyson may well go up in value more than Kornes this week, but I want the league win this week... and the $311,000 is burning a hole in my pocket. If you were going for overall, you'd probably sit tight, as Dyson's just as likely to pull out a 90 this week and give you better value for a trade next week.

I'm an Essendon supporter and not a Dyson fan at all... but I got sucked in by his pre-season, and Knights' unwavering dedication to giving him a good run. Don't particularly like anything about the "way he goes about it", and will be a happier coach without the darkness of that dubious selection hanging over me!

I agree about Premium, premiums... I have a shopping list for my ultimate team, and don't want to waver from that... but it depends on how the rest of your team is traveling. My only players that have dropped in value are guns, so I'm confidently riding my speculative picks, who are currently all going great guns. A few shizen weeks across the board, and I might be looking for more "value" picks.

That said.... Kornes IS an absolute BARGAIN!!! Definitely a top 6 midfielder! Captain material too, so double the value of the difference in avg PPG.

Someone talk me out of it! ;)
 
Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

No, you talk sense and your trade sounds sound (pardon the pun) and like i said, it is the exact same trade i am considering.
I think they will both rise next week, both by maybe $10,000.
With that being said, if they are both going to rise by the same amount, but one player is going to score 70 points more, then the time is right.

I just do not think he is such a BARGAIN as you say he is?
Something i am missing?

Also, H.Scotland could be the pick of the year this week.
Very risky though.
 

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Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

No, you talk sense and your trade sounds sound (pardon the pun) and like i said, it is the exact same trade i am considering.
I think they will both rise next week, both by maybe $10,000.
With that being said, if they are both going to rise by the same amount, but one player is going to score 70 points more, then the time is right.

I just do not think he is such a BARGAIN as you say he is?
Something i am missing?


Also, H.Scotland could be the pick of the year this week.
Very risky though.

Kane Cornes averaged 105 in 2006 and 107.4 in 2007. Add to this the fact that he hasn't missed a game in 4 years and you are looking at a truly spectacular dream team player.A price of 423,200 represents value for a player capable of pulling in massive scores on a consistent basis.
 
Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

No, you talk sense and your trade sounds sound (pardon the pun) and like i said, it is the exact same trade i am considering.
I think they will both rise next week, both by maybe $10,000.
With that being said, if they are both going to rise by the same amount, but one player is going to score 70 points more, then the time is right.

I just do not think he is such a BARGAIN as you say he is?
Something i am missing?

Also, H.Scotland could be the pick of the year this week.
Very risky though.

That pretty much sums it up doesnt it? He could average close to what Kane Cornes will average. He has proven that he can.

But does 65k justify the risk taken?? In my opinion, I think it does.
 
Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

happy_eagle decided to take over my duties this week and analyse T.Cloke, even though the "Player Summary" was my individual feature i was adding to this board. :mad:

I will still analyse two more players this week and keep up the trend of two players a week.
I have been really busy lately so give me time and stay tuned for some solid discussion on two premiums later on in the week.

No offense mate, but I don't think that comment was necessary. The player summary idea was a great one, and through your initial posts we've been putting together some excellent in-depth analysis, but there's no need to get defensive about it.
I'm sure happy_eagle just took the opportunity to stimulate some extra discussion, and I don't see the problem in that. You shouldn't see it as a "taking over of duties" at all - we're all here to discuss right? Surely discussion of an extra player can't be a bad thing?

I try not to follow the "upgrade your weakest link first" mentality, because I find that a much more efficient way is to choose your weakest 5-7 players from the start and upgrade them when the time is right, in whatever order.
I agree with that. One shouldn't limit himself to focusing on "upgrade targets" at the expensive of other premiums at bargain prices. This may happen if you have the 'upgrade my weakest link' mentality.

Whereas if you are willing to upgrade any one of 5 players, then you can keep watch for any premiums coming into value in their respective positions.

For myself, it means keeping one eye on a possible backline upgrade to Milburn, Goddard or Burgoyne, one eye on the midfield where Dyson will need to be upgraded and all my other attention on the forward line - where Chapman, Riewoldt and SJ are all potential upgrades. Then, as each premium is bottoming out, I assess each upgrade according to its merits - depending on the player I will be upgrading.
 
Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

I agree with that. One shouldn't limit himself to focusing on "upgrade targets" at the expensive of other premiums at bargain prices. This may happen if you have the 'upgrade my weakest link' mentality.

Whereas if you are willing to upgrade any one of 5 players, then you can keep watch for any premiums coming into value in their respective positions.

For myself, it means keeping one eye on a possible backline upgrade to Milburn, Goddard or Burgoyne, one eye on the midfield where Dyson will need to be upgraded and all my other attention on the forward line - where Chapman, Riewoldt and SJ are all potential upgrades. Then, as each premium is bottoming out, I assess each upgrade according to its merits - depending on the player I will be upgrading.

Agree. You need to take into account the player you're bringing in + the player going out + the other player(s) you're keeping (and not upgrading) + the other potential draftee(s) you're passing over (and not bringing into your team). It's a balancing act. My 7th back is easily my weakest position, but Pfeiffer's doing ok and rising in value. While that's happening, I'll focus elsewhere, until he tops out in price, and hopefully Proud & SDT will be playing then too and my Backline upgrade targets will be bottoming out. Different situation if you're copping zero's, but it's not as urgent for me.

Sometimes trades just fit... an upgrade target clearly bottoms out at the same time your mid-range or cash-cow peaks. Those ones are easy. It's the ones where you need to make judgement calls on numerous players games (DT scores) for a week or two. You might have to act prematurely (sacrifice points or $) one week to be able to capitalise on a trade or two the following week, and vice versa.
 
Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

It's a balancing act.

If you were going to summarise DT in one sentence, that would be it.

You always have to be looking ahead, especially with your cash flow. You need to make sure you have enough cash coming in for future upgrades. If you dont have enough, you have to find a way to create it.

*On other matters, I think that tonight and tomorrow night some big decisions will be made by most DTers.

With Kornes, Mitchell and Scotland, all severely underpriced guns, the decision between which one to choose needs to be made.

Kornes - Pros - Best DTer over the past 3 years. Consistent. Cons - None.

Mitchell - Pros - Playing in an ever-improving hawks midfield, becoming geelong-esque. Plays 3 more games at Aurora stadium, the highest scoring ground in the league. Cons - Prone to a below average game.

Scotland - Pros - The most consistent gun over the last 2 years. Carlton improving, hence more possesions. Cons - Position change?

So now taking price into account, who would you choose? Also, I have just seen O'Hailpin got dropped from the Blues team. Does this mean a more accountable Thornton and Scotland the go-to-man again?
 
Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

For those with league victory their priority, who are also looking at one of the underpriced mids this week, here's their average and their most recent scores versus their opponents over the Dreamteam League finals (Most recent score listed first).

KORNES
R19 V CAR (81.6 Av. Last 3 = 104, 126, 94)
R20 V COL (86.7 Av. Last 3 = 110, 116, 134)
R21 V MEL (87.8 Av. Last 3 = 102, 97, 97)
R22 V KAN (84.3 Av. Last 3 = 97, 101, 102, + 153 before that!)

MITCHELL
R19 V BRL (96.8 Av. Last 3 = 127, 109, 70)
R20 V RIC (79.8 Av. Last 3 = 119, 133, 95)
R21 V WCE (73.7 Av. Last 3 = 48, 119, 106)
R22 V CAR (76.0 Av. Last 3 = 64, 90, 88)

SCOTLAND
R19 V PTA (80.3 Avg. Last 3 = 105, 121, 137)
R20 V KAN (72.4 Av. Last 3 = 83, 81, 89)
R21 V BRL (64.1 Avg. Last 3 = 62, 102, 98)
R22 V HAW (65.6 Avg. Last 3 = 62, 82, 102)

I don't think I've ever felt so comfortable with a trade!! Kornes for me!! :thumbsu:
 
Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

With Cornes out for four weeks, the depth of our backlines will be tested--even more than they have been already. Probably not many of you have Thornton, but what about Symes? Those of us who traded in Wonaeamirri will be praying that he plays the three games Cornes will miss. A lot of others will be hoping that Ibbotson is their backline saviour. Will Scotty DT play? What about those hopes, Hansen and Proud?

For me, at least JB had another bad game, so his introduction into my forward line can wait at least another week and perhaps two weeks. Thus this one week will be used to patch up my backline; I'm thinking Proud to Ibbotson to cover a possible zero (Cornes, Symes) and also for cash flow reasons.

If my backline holds up I'll probably go Coughlan to Ibbotson instead. I probably should have hopped on Ibbotson when he was at 96K but that was before two players in my backline got injured, sigh.

After that I can look at bringing in JB and Kornes. Delays, delays...
 
Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

With Cornes out for four weeks, the depth of our backlines will be tested--even more than they have been already. Probably not many of you have Thornton, but what about Symes? Those of us who traded in Wonaeamirri will be praying that he plays the three games Cornes will miss. A lot of others will be hoping that Ibbotson is their backline saviour. Will Scotty DT play? What about those hopes, Hansen and Proud?

For me, at least JB had another bad game, so his introduction into my forward line can wait at least another week and perhaps two weeks. Thus this one week will be used to patch up my backline; I'm thinking Proud to Ibbotson to cover a possible zero (Cornes, Symes) and also for cash flow reasons.

If my backline holds up I'll probably go Coughlan to Ibbotson instead. I probably should have hopped on Ibbotson when he was at 96K but that was before two players in my backline got injured, sigh.

After that I can look at bringing in JB and Kornes. Delays, delays...

Im pretty sure Wona has secured his spot in the squad for a long time with his performance today, so he can cover Chad for the 3 games hell miss (4 weeks - state of origin game).
 
Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

Yeah Im just looking outside the box. I also mentioned Domenic Cassisi last week, he had a solid score again this week (99) and is still on 357k.

I really need to punt Dyson, hence my random midfield considerations.
Not sure if you still have Dyson but if you are in a punting mood Daniel Kerr might be the go in a couple of weeks (after his looming suspension; accidental my ar$e).
You said Selwood and I doubted you - scored a ton this week
You said Cassisi and I doubted you - scored 99 and 127 since then.

Do whatever you think is best!!!
 

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Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

Porplyzia is an interesting one. If there was ever a borderline decision on whether he's a keeper or not, he is it.

He has all the attributes to keep him for the 22 rounds, however his fate as far as I am concerned will be determined by him. Naturally, other variables will need to be considered, such as unbelievable bargains that surface.

A keeper for now... He should get close to 100 over his next 4 games.

http://www.fanfooty.com.au/players/profile.php?firstname=Jason&surname=Porplyzia

:cool:
I think the biggest test will be when Reilly gets back. Porplyzia and Vince (also MacKay) have benefitted from the loss of Knights and Reilly. I have no doubt that both of them can do the job in there but there are only so many possessions to go around. Save your decisions until a couple of weeks after Reilly returns. At this stage Reilly is said to be back after the Celebrate Victoria game.
 
Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

here's what I'm hoping happens--
Cornes only expected to miss one week. (i.e. can be covered by one of the emergencies)
Ellis named.
Symes plays.
SD Thompson or Proud plays.
That means no backline 0s occur, and my backline emergencies are in reasonable shape.

That gives me the freedom to change my midfield.
Coughlan out for my man Ibbotson. (I believe him to be the better choice over Armitage.) Cash cow. Leaves me with 180.3 + 54.7 = 235K in the bank.
That means Dyson gets the chop for Kornes. Leaves me with 54.9K in the bank.
Then next week Hill gets the chop for JB. If there's not enough money then I will likely leave it one more week, for JB's price may yet fall; that next week I can downgrade a cash cow if I really must.
During this time I can switch emergencies around in the backline if need be (eg if Cornes misses more than 1 week).

This would leave me with a decent midfield (Kornes Cross Stevens Johnstone Griffen Palmer /Bird /Ibbotson) and a very strong forward line (BJ Pav JB Riewoldt Didak Deledio Porplyzia /Rioli /Tippett). I wouldn't really change the forward line for the rest of the year unless something changes.

After this it's bye to Ellis and Wonaeamirri in later weeks as my other cash cows give way to upgrades. That's a way away.

One can dream!!
 
Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

This week we have an opportunity to put our DT knowledge to the test, because everyone will be asking the same question:

What to do with Cornes?

Possible questions that people will have:

1) Trade him?
Who to get?
Who is in form? - so called 'premium' backs are generally misfiring so far
Punt on Bowden?

2) Keep him?
Cop the zero?
Trade in an emergency like Ibbottson or Wonawhatshisname?
Will Proud/SDT/Hansen play?

This week is our chance lads.

Surely no one will trade him. Even if he does miss the full three games (rather than one game) it's still not worth it. You're just going to need him back in your side by the end of the year anyway, and with a score of 65 his price isn't going down that much.

As for what happens this week, ideally one of your emergencies comes in. If neither of your emergencies is playing it's a good excuse to pick up Ibbotson as an emergency-will make you money and cover Cornes' 0's (how ever many there are).

If Cornes is only out for a week you can cop the zero. If he's out for longer (hopefully we'll know his prognosis by Friday) you'd certainly want to trade in a scoring emergency. That only takes one trade and gives your backline some relief.
 
Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

Symes has a break-even of 78.
Hmm...
Is it time to offload the fella?

I'm keeping him. He was injured on the weekend and missed a bit of the game so although he might go down in price he won't plummet all that much and I have much more pressing concerns. Realistically Symes can average between 70-80, he could even end up your 7th back man for the season.

I'd rather use trades on getting rid of rookies that are rotating through my team like Pfieffer or Hill and then focus on middle range guys like Houli and Ellis before tackling Symes.

In other words he's just not that much of a weak link at the moment.
 
Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

I would be happy for Symes to be my sixth backman throughout, let alone my seventh. In the Crows games I've seen he's been very good; even Port supporters give him wraps. I'd like to see him give away fewer FAs though.
 
Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

Symes has a break-even of 78.
Hmm...
Is it time to offload the fella?
I'm not sure it is time to offload him purely due to his breakeven because IMO he will avg 70-75ish for a few weeks yet, so he is not going to drop substantially. He is coming off an injured game and I don't think 80 is beyond him this week (or any week). Symes is possibly a trade of opportunity rather than neccessity.

It is essentially a straight swap for Goddard, Fisher or McPhee, with profit to be made if Milburn, Waters, Gram or Gilbee spark your interest. Burgoyne isn't miles away if you are looking for an upgrade either. The backline issues this week might mean that there are greater priorities but it is something to consider.

The Cornes situation - I can't see many people trading him out this week but if Wallace is still in his anti DT mood then I can see Bowden getting the axe in a lot of teams who have both, with the names listed above being the main candidates. If you trade Cornes I can guarantee you will want him back at some stage, which is always an indication that trading is not the best way out. Most (good) teams have him so they are in the same situation you are, and you won't lose too much ground by wearing a 0. If your rookies can't get a game then you are in a much larger puddle of poo...

The backs are a mess from top to bottom and the sooner you can sort it out the better. I doubt that is this week though, certainly won't be for me.
 

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Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

This week we have an opportunity to put our DT knowledge to the test, because everyone will be asking the same question:

What to do with Cornes?

Possible questions that people will have:

1) Trade him?
Who to get?
Who is in form? - so called 'premium' backs are generally misfiring so far
Punt on Bowden?

2) Keep him?
Cop the zero?
Trade in an emergency like Ibbottson or Wonawhatshisname?
Will Proud/SDT/Hansen play?

This week is our chance lads.


Working through this logically.

1) Cornes stays. Latest news tonight says 4 weeks which could be 2 or 3 matches but conflicting reports so he may only miss 1 with SOO game. If you trade it would only be to another premium which is pointless for the 160 points they will score you over the 2 weeks, assuming you have no emergencies.

2) If you have Bowden, Cornes and no emergencies (welcome to my world) the situation is more serious. If Bowden's not named you effectively have $1 mill not scoring for you this week and an unsure future if Richmond continue to perform. I will be pulling the trigger on Bowden to Goddard this week if Bowden is not named. I can no longer sustain the uncertainty with that level of cash with further uncertainty over Cornes return date. I already have my thank you note typed out for Sir Terrence.

3) Generally unwise but a low end sideways trade to Ibbo may score points required and generate 100K profit until things settle down in the backs. $140K is still exceptional value if you have the trade to spare.

Every situation will be different based on who they are holding from the backline disaster.

Could throw up some interesting Eliminator results this week.
 
Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cartman121
I understand that people want to trade out players when they have made some $$ + have been good value and can possibly get an underperforming gun. But it looks like everyone is looking at some of there "good" players to trade out just because they wont make anymore $$$. These players have gone up in cash for a reason, because they are are in good form and are playing well, seems illogical to trade out some of these players. I know there are alot of individual, potentially benefitial trades, but im talking on a very broad basis. Seems like alot of wasted trades imo, but then again what do i know.

You raise a great point Cartman, and coaches must be aware of this. Its nonsense to trade out a player simply because their price has risen.
You only trade out players if they are not keepers (ie. will not average at above 80-85 for the year), and only trade when their price has peaked - that is, once they have had a bad week or two and show that their good form is over.
Hacks like Thornton, Osbourne, Fev, Mattner and co are great players to trade out once they have risen a fair amount in price, because non of them have proven themselves to be premiums or even keepers (Fev would be perhaps), so ideally you will want to upgrade them during the season.

Players like Salopek and Porplyzia who are averaging around 90/85 should not be traded in my opinion unless you really have no other problems.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Masss#10
Might do a trade and get rid of either Ellis or Brett Jones but not sure who to get rid of...thinking Ellis..

Yup, I'd keep Bones. He's had a bad few weeks but once the Eagles start to improve their ball use then he will benefit from being the linkup man out of the back half.
I don't normally quote myself, but this was something that came up on the main board. I feel we should stick it in somewhere because it's already been lost in the thread it was posted in.

Newbie DTers may feel the need to upgrade players for the simple reason that their price has risen and is now bottoming out. If they're swapping premiums for premiums then this is a big waste.

Or is it already too obvious and therefore not worth raising?
 
Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

I don't normally quote myself, but this was something that came up on the main board. I feel we should stick it in somewhere because it's already been lost in the thread it was posted in.

Newbie DTers may feel the need to upgrade players for the simple reason that their price has risen and is now bottoming out. If they're swapping premiums for premiums then this is a big waste.

Or is it already too obvious and therefore not worth raising?
Valid point, and some people seem to try to jump on every cash generator possible. It does not matter if a 'keeper' goes up or down in price, the profit or loss will only be realised if you trade them. You should only trade them for injury, or when there is an opportunity too good to miss (Bartel @ 300k is too good to miss, a 99 from Garrick Ibbotson is not.)
 
Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

Working through this logically.

1) Cornes stays. Latest news tonight says 4 weeks which could be 2 or 3 matches but conflicting reports so he may only miss 1 with SOO game. If you trade it would only be to another premium which is pointless for the 160 points they will score you over the 2 weeks, assuming you have no emergencies.

2) If you have Bowden, Cornes and no emergencies (welcome to my world) the situation is more serious. If Bowden's not named you effectively have $1 mill not scoring for you this week and an unsure future if Richmond continue to perform. I will be pulling the trigger on Bowden to Goddard this week if Bowden is not named. I can no longer sustain the uncertainty with that level of cash with further uncertainty over Cornes return date. I already have my thank you note typed out for Sir Terrence.

3) Generally unwise but a low end sideways trade to Ibbo may score points required and generate 100K profit until things settle down in the backs. $140K is still exceptional value if you have the trade to spare.

Every situation will be different based on who they are holding from the backline disaster.

Could throw up some interesting Eliminator results this week.

i also have cornes and bowden, at best cornes could miss 1 week (hopefully) and at worst 4 weeks, 3 games effectively. the cornes/bowden combination will hurt quite a few teams this week, the worse bit being the uncertainity surrounding bowden and his inclusion. from what i have read he has been dominating for coburg (whilst not doing the 'team' things), and while the game was close on the w.e, richmond shouldve been belted, but due to their accuracy and hawthorn inaccurate kicking they werent. IMO bowden should be played this week hopefully curing a few headaches. but like 54dogs said there arent many good options in the backs department.

i know this isnt a usual dreamteam trading method, and i dont plan on doing it myself, but what does everything think about a short term downgrade for cornes and/or bowden (depending on trade/s situation), and during this time this downgrade generates a large amount of cash, such as ibbotson, drum , pears, frawley, scott DT and will schofield. then when cornes/bowden return (assuming you've kept the cash) upgrade immediatley back to them, while covering a couple of 0's and generating some cash in the process. for this idea to work, IMO you would need to generate a large amount of cash and would want 3/4 weeks of increasing value (not to mention the 3/4 0's that will be covered) before this is worth the 2 trades. in saying this, you could even hold them for 1/2 rounds when cornes and bowden return, as they both have fairly high BE's on their return which gives you:
A) another 1/2 weeks of price rises
B) save money on cornes and bowden when their price drops slightly

it is a very different strategy but bold and correct decisions is what can really seperate you from the pack.
 
Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

it is a very different strategy but bold and correct decisions is what can really seperate you from the pack.

What I have been thinking is;

Downgrade Chad to Goddard. (+100k)

Upgrade Ellis --> Another back around 300k Gilbee?? (-30k)

Downgrade Bird to rookie (+100k)

Upgrade Mattner to Cornes after he has bottomed out (-100k)

Essentially 4 trades, 2 upgrades, without having to play a rookie because of Chads injury.

Looks a bit of a waste, but what do you guys think of this theory? Personally Id rather hold on to Chad, but who knows?
 
Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

I think that sort of strategy would only possibly work if you badly are in need of working capital, i.e., your budget is stretched and you need extra cash to bring in profitable players and get rid of doldruming players.

Otherwise you're losing out in terms of the two-three games' benefit - as a point value it's not worth two trades IMO.
 
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