Opinion Non-Crows AFL 13: Offseason

[Mr MysteryGuest]

I thought it was front on contact but then apparently it was a push in the back?! Lmao

Front on is still wrong though

 

[Ciao Giacomo]

Interesting “fact”.

Assume we lose to Collingwood, Brisbane lose another game and Geelong win their last 2 games. The top position will come down to % between us and Geelong. Now if Gold Coast win their remaining matches they could
finish THIRD and Collingwood FOURTH. Geelong may choose to have a lowish win so they play Gold Coast at home rather than Collingwood at the MCG

There is still a lot of water to go under the bridge.

We just need to win our last three matches and not worry about other teams.

 

[AFC979810]

Interesting “fact”.

Assume we lose to Collingwood, Brisbane lose another game and Geelong win their last 2 games. The top position will come down to % between us and Geelong. Now if Gold Coast win their remaining matches they could
finish THIRD and Collingwood FOURTH. Geelong may choose to have a lowish win so they play Gold Coast at home rather than Collingwood at the MCG

There is still a lot of water to go under the bridge.

We just need to win our last three matches and not worry about other teams.

Collingwood a mathematical chance of missing the finals still.

 

[Moonwatcher]

Hate waiting till Sunday

 

[spenze]

Collingwood a mathematical chance of missing the finals still.

It is why I love maths

 

[Geoffa32]

Freo will beat Brisbane
Sydney will beat Geelong
Bookmark it....

 

[StonesThrow]

jezza squeezing the ball makes him way more unlikeable. Hope he gets stranded on 99

Been saying that for years. Drives me crazy.

 

[davos44]

Geelong played with so much disdain for Essendon last night, took until the last couple of minutes of the 3rd to make them realise they have to take the Dons seriously and not "lets see how many we can feed Jezza."

They would be a bit annoyed with themselves about coughing up a potential 12+ goal win and closing that percentage gap.

BUT

Essendons fight has been really impressive late in the year. They were outclassed by miles but kind of dug in, made me think of us in 2021 late. Their injury list belies belief.

I haven't been cheering for Sydney much of late but the next 2 rounds I will be wondering why people think Papley is a flog.

 

[kirky]

Oh boy, only an hour to go until we get to witness an absolute football mugging.

I am expecting a triple figure win by the Cats tonight.

If Essendon hold them to a 60 point win I will be very happy.

Geelong are absolutely winning by over 100 points tonight

A shellacking is coming.

These all aged well.

 

[kirky]

Geelong's percentage will be higher than ours at the end of the season.

Doubt that will happen now.

 

[kirky]

It's not as unlikely as you think.

In order for the Crows to stay ahead of Geelong on percentage, the Crows need to beat West Coast by 10 goals.

Assuming Geelong beat Sydney by 50 points and the Crows lost to Collingwood by 30 points, Geelong would finish ahead of the Crows on percentage if they beat Richmond in the final round by more than the Crows beat North Melbourne. Plus Geelong have the advantage of playing last and knowing the margin they need to beat.

You reckon Sydney will lose to Geelong by 50 in Sydney? And we will lose by 30 to Collingwood in Adelaide?

What the **** are you smoking or taking?

 

[kirky]

I wouldn't say it's stupidly unlikely.

I would.

Our last 5 games against Collingwood have been decide by 10 points or less and that includes 3 games at the G. Our last 3 games against Collingwood at Adelaide Oval have been decide by 5 points or less dating back to 2021.

This side we have is miles better than any over the past 4 years.

It will either be another close Collingwood win or we will win comfortably (4-5 goals).

 

[kirky]

Don't be too sure.

I did the ladder protector with us beating WCE and North by 20 and losing to Collingwood by 20 and our percentage drops back to Geelong's.

Jesus, if that happens we don’t deserve top 2.

Seriously, a bunch of Henny Pennys on here.

This is a side on a mission. We will win comfortably against both Eagles and Roos.

 

[Cromulant]

Jesus, if that happens we don’t deserve top 2.

Seriously, a bunch of Henny Pennys on here.

This is a side on a mission. We will win comfortably against both Eagles and Roos.

If we played out SANFL side tomorrow we'd probably win by 20.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

What??? That’s not right. Let’s say we win 100-40 (10 goals) our percentage will rise!

Yes, but not by a lot and, in my scenario, a loss to Collingwood by 30 points hurts our percentage a lot. Combine that with Geelong playing Sydney and Richmond and it is within the realms of possibility.

 

[NSolis]

I would.

Our last 5 games against Collingwood have been decide by 10 points or less and that includes 3 games at the G. Our last 3 games against Collingwood at Adelaide Oval have been decide by 5 points or less dating back to 2021.

This side we have is miles better than any over the past 4 years.

It will either be another close Collingwood win or we will win comfortably (4-5 goals).

30 would be a pretty big loss for us too. Our 30+ point losses over the last 3 seasons are:

Round 2, 2023 - 32 points vs Richmond
Round 10, 2023 - 45 points vs Bulldogs
Round 3, 2024 - 35 points vs Fremantle
Round 14, 2024 - 42 points vs Sydney
Round 20, 2024 - 66 points vs Hawthorn
Round 24, 2024 - 31 points vs Sydney

6 of the last 31 losses by 5+ goals.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Geelong's record is poor in Sydney and the last time they beat them by over 50 (53 points) in Sydney was 2010 at ANZ. Most recent win in Sydney was 2019 by 27 points at the SCG.

You have to go back to 1994 for an actual flogging by Geelong in Sydney.

That is a positive. Hopefully Sydney haven’t checked out of their season yet.

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

You reckon Sydney will lose to Geelong by 50 in Sydney? And we will lose by 30 to Collingwood in Adelaide?

What the **** are you smoking or taking?

I don't think it's that unlikely. If we can beat them by 15 goals and GWS can beat them by 9 goals, why can't Geelong beat them by 8?

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Essendon were competitive but Geelong got virtually all their goals from turnover. If we meet them in finals I can’t see us turning the ball over as much unless we revert to our previous game plan of kicking long to Tom Stewart.

Where do you think the Crows get most of their goals from?

Also from turnover.

It’s just a reality that most top teams are also teams that punish you on turnover.

Scoring from clearances is a less likely source, followed by scoring from kick-ins.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Hate waiting till Sunday

I’d hate it if the Crows were playing Hawthorn or Collingwood as I’d be a bit anxious due to the uncertainty. Much less of a factor playing the bottom team that has won 1 game for the year.

 

[Cromulant]

Yes, but not by a lot and, in my scenario, a loss to Collingwood by 30 points hurts our percentage a lot. Combine that with Geelong playing Sydney and Richmond and it is within the realms of possibility.

Its not beyond the realms, but it's extremely close.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

You reckon Sydney will lose to Geelong by 50 in Sydney? And we will lose by 30 to Collingwood in Adelaide?

What the **** are you smoking or taking?

The Sydney game, I’m not sure about.

I’d be very disappointed if the Crows lost to a Collingwood team that look absolutely lost right now, but a 5 goal loss isn’t crazy.

 

[daniel_4tw]

We should be beating Collingwood by 10 goals given the form they’re in. % won’t be a concern.

 

[Greenfinger]

12 July was the last time Geelong played a top 9 team ( GWS and they lost)
Last time they beat a top 9 team was 7 June . 2 months ago! And that was Suns at home.

Their run would have to one of the greatest armchair rides of all time .

Will they be match fit for finals though? Their first final will be over 2 months since they would have played against a contender.

 

[Greenfinger]

It's not as unlikely as you think.

In order for the Crows to stay ahead of Geelong on percentage, the Crows need to beat West Coast by 10 goals.

Assuming Geelong beat Sydney by 50 points and the Crows lost to Collingwood by 30 points, Geelong would finish ahead of the Crows on percentage if they beat Richmond in the final round by more than the Crows beat North Melbourne. Plus Geelong have the advantage of playing last and knowing the margin they need to beat.

Cats are not beating swans by 50. Actually reckon it’s a slight danger game for them. They haven’t played a competitive team for over a month.
We are not loosing by 5 goals either .