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NRL 2021

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NYRB said:
penrith line seems a bit high for wins , same too for Parramatta


got this weird feeling Cronulla can cover that 9.5 wins on over
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Tabt was the other one I liked too. Weirdly I recon Bulldogs unders are almost a given. Their draw is brutal
 
LukeParkerno1 said:
Souths outsiders against a Storm side minus Smith and Grant out too lol

Warriors and Tigers value too
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Souffs yet to win in Victoria.
Guess that's having a bearing on the price
 

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balmainforever said:
Souffs yet to win in Victoria.
Guess that's having a bearing on the price
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Smith was playing HUGE difference in those games. Have had a decent crack on South’s and Mitchell for the Dally M
 
LukeParkerno1 said:
Smith was playing HUGE difference in those games. Have had a decent crack on South’s and Mitchell for the Dally M
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It's true - every time Souths have played in Victoria Smith has single handedly won the game for the storm.

Every....single....time
 
NRL Round 1:

Melbourne 1.90 v 1.92 South Sydney
Knights 1.54 v 2.50 Bulldogs
Brisbane 3.35 v 1.30 Eels
Warriors 2.30 v 1.63 Titans
Roosters 1.32 v 3.42 Manly Sea Eagles
Penrith 1.29 v 3.60 Cowboys
Canberra 1.31 v 3.55 West Tigers
St George Illawarra 2.25 v 1.65 Cronulla
 
Souths (will take a smaller multi 1-12 margin)
Knights (but don’t mind the Dogs at the line with Ponga out till r4)
Brisbane (at the line)
Warriors
Roosters 13+
Penrith
Raiders
Cronulla (but not a game I’m betting on both sides are bottom 4)
 

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LukeParkerno1 said:
That Titans game is a who on earth knows game

Which Warriors team is turning up lol
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Round 1 will always throw up some big misses for punters too, so I certainly won't go nuts, but I believe with the above strategy I can turn a profit even if one misses.

I'm fairly confident in that multi of 3, then would only need one of the Souths line or Titans to get up to turn a profit.
 
juss said:
Round 1 will always throw up some big misses for punters too, so I certainly won't go nuts, but I believe with the above strategy I can turn a profit even if one misses.

I'm fairly confident in that multi of 3, then would only need one of the Souths line or Titans to get up to turn a profit.
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Yep round 1 is so tough I’m going maximum of 5 games and I’ll be loading the Tigers to cover the line against Carl
 
Storm haven’t lost a Rd 1 game in god knows how long & I certainly won’t be backing against them here with nearly $2+ on offer. Cheesy Smith will step into the rake & it’ll be a seamless transition ....will have sprinkling on 13+ as well.
 
srobbo said:
Storm haven’t lost a Rd 1 game in god knows how long & I certainly won’t be backing against them here with nearly $2+ on offer. Cheesy Smith will step into the rake & it’ll be a seamless transition ....will have sprinkling on 13+ as well.
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That's true. I can talk myself into both of them being value haha. Only thing is Storm have Grant and Finucane, along with C. Smith out. These are pretty big blows vs a redhot Rabbits team who are pretty much at full strength. Storm bench is pretty average imo but they are playing at home though. Far out, want to back both teams. Already have a bit on Rabbits since last week so might hedge with Storm if Storm become outsiders come gametime.

On another note, Draftstars for the Storm v Rabbits game is 75k!!! This is the biggest ever for NRL and I cannot ****ing wait. I've won it a few time and the thrill of following every little campaigner tackle/run/break etc in the dying minutes is intense lol. A few of my mates have won it too, so defs achievable for us compared to AFL where I flipping suck lol.

Is there a Draftstars thread on the forum?

Fk soo keen for the footy to be back. Stupid NBA allstar break.

I'll chuck up some value ATS stuff tomorrow, from memory I liked Averillo at $5ish vs the Knights. Think dogs can upset the Knights and he's got good try scoring potential. Also B.Best ATS is 2.80ish on SB which I like. B.Smith ATS was $6ish vs Rabbits either on Neds or SB. IMO that's good value for him as he'll defs have a sneaky barge close to the tryline.

TAB usually offer good Try Scorer value but I cbf looking it up properly atm.
 
LukeParkerno1 said:
Souths (will take a smaller multi 1-12 margin)
Knights (but don’t mind the Dogs at the line with Ponga out till r4)
Brisbane (at the line)
Warriors
Roosters 13+
Penrith
Raiders
Cronulla (but not a game I’m betting on both sides are bottom 4)
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Souths with line
Dogs with line. Knights missing a few backs.
Eels easy win imo
Warriors with line
Roosters 13+. Agreed
Penrith 13+
Tigers with line. Raiders lost cotric and batemen which are big blows imo, croker missing too. Hodgson will need to step up this year, I can see raiders sliding a bit. Think Tamou will make a big difference to the Tigers with his leadership.
Cronulla (but not a game I’m betting on both sides are bottom 4). Agreed.
 

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Addo-Carr 2+ Tries, Mitchell 2+ Tries paying 101

Addo-Carr 1st TryScorer for Storm, Mitchell 1st Tryscorer for souths paying 38.25
 
srobbo said:
Storm haven’t lost a Rd 1 game in god knows how long & I certainly won’t be backing against them here with nearly $2+ on offer. Cheesy Smith will step into the rake & it’ll be a seamless transition ....will have sprinkling on 13+ as well.
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I mean sure, but that's a pretty shallow look at analysing this bet. It's going to happen one day that they lose one and this looks as good a spot to bet that as any I can recall.

This will be the first time in many years that Storm will be missing their spiritual GOAT leader and player. The depth in that position is down to a third choice option, not to mention other significant injuries and some departures over the offseason. This is a weaker Storm lineup than we have seen before.

Alternatively, it doesn't happen every year that they play a side many are tipping for the flag that come in just about full strength.

At the time of posting, Souths are over $2. Regardless of the end result, Souths are atleast a 50% or better IMO, so depending on how the odds go, this is a good bet according to the market I have. I'm looking at the +line as a tiny bit of insurance though if I can get +2.5 I'm thrilled.
 
juss said:
I mean sure, but that's a pretty shallow look at analysing this bet. It's going to happen one day that they lose one and this looks as good a spot to bet that as any I can recall.

This will be the first time in many years that Storm will be missing their spiritual GOAT leader and player. The depth in that position is down to a third choice option, not to mention other significant injuries and some departures over the offseason. This is a weaker Storm lineup than we have seen before.

Alternatively, it doesn't happen every year that they play a side many are tipping for the flag that come in just about full strength.

At the time of posting, Souths are over $2. Regardless of the end result, Souths are atleast a 50% or better IMO, so depending on how the odds go, this is a good bet according to the market I have. I'm looking at the +line as a tiny bit of insurance though if I can get +2.5 I'm thrilled.
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Market is completely wrong

Storm got new players all over the park, Harry Grant injured

Souths are essentially the same team as last year and are loaded across the park

Storm should be about 2.4 not 1.8

I don’t like backing against the Storm but in no world should they be faves here
 
juss said:
This will be the first time in many years that Storm will be missing their spiritual GOAT leader and player. The depth in that position is down to a third choice option, not to mention other significant injuries and some departures over the offseason. This is a weaker Storm lineup than we have seen before.
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A 3rd option who is still a very strong option. Brandon Smith is a seriously good rake who gives storm speed & momentum out of dummy half that will be advantageous with the new rule. Sleep on him at your peril. Storm are a sum of their parts & cheesy slid into the role seamlessly when Cam missed games last year.

I wouldn’t have thought not losing a Rd 1 fixture is a shallow outlook on this contest but more a testament to Bellamy who has his side prepared to go better than any. As for Souths having never won in Melbourne....well that’s another conversation...
 
srobbo said:
A 3rd option who is still a very strong option. Brandon Smith is a seriously good rake who gives storm speed & momentum out of dummy half that will be advantageous with the new rule. Sleep on him at your peril. Storm are a sum of their parts & cheesy slid into the role seamlessly when Cam missed games last year.

I wouldn’t have thought not losing a Rd 1 fixture is a shallow outlook on this contest but more a testament to Bellamy who has his side prepared to go better than any. As for Souths having never won in Melbourne....well that’s another conversation...
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Regardless of the eventual result, I still think South Sydney will represent value, I've got them as slight favourites but right right now they're above $2.

It's not to say Storm won't/can't win, that would be silly, but the smart bet based on the odds is currently with the Bunnies for me. I could be totally misreading it though, it's only round 1 so it's gonna take some time to get a good read.
 

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