Optimistic but...

[DemonLord]

Just ran through the last few rounds on the predictor ladder. I tried to be positive about how we will play but not stupid - penciling a few losses along the way against the better sides.

At the end of the home and away I had us in 9th place with 9 wins and the draw. Now ths had us winning most of the games where I would consider us the better side, but also throwing in some "young side" shockers. I also balanced that with 1 "suprise suprise" upset win.

Now a lot of where we finished was not so much based on our wins/losses suprisingly but on the tough run a few sides around us have in the last few weeks.

I am not going into who I picked us to win and lose against as I consider this irrelevant for the this discussion. What I would like to know, would mosty Dees supporters consider that good enough considering where we have come from but also balanced against that at one stage we were 3 and 2 after 5 rounds.

That was my best case scenrario. We could also put is sose unexpected howlers. Just some thoughts. A few of our bottom 8 rivals have a hideous run home compared to ours. We could end the year strongly and have a good platform for further improvement next year.

Thoughts.

DL

 

[stretcharmstrong]

would be happy with 8.5 wins at the end of the season from here. As to where that would leave us on the ladder I would say 11th/12th.

Pretty disgusted with the last 15 minutes today to be honest, it dissolved any optimism or hapiness I had about today's game.

 

[Fairtex]

I think we have a pretty decent run home.... we've had a pretty tough 6-8 weeks in terms of teams versed. Finals-unlikely...but does it really make a difference if we finish 9th or 8th? We would most likely get KO'd first week..

 

[DonMare]

I did the ladder predictor a few rounds ago and had Melbourne finishing 10th.

I think finishing 10th or 11th will be good for us. A few spots off the bottom of the ladder.

 

[Dez!]

In a sense I'm not hoping to sneak into the finals because I think it could end similarly to Essendon last year which put unreasonable expectations on that group for this year which they weren't capable of living up to. While the finals experience would be something I just feel we are better off just missing out for this year and trying to launch a serious assault next year.

Crazy I know but I think it's best for us long term.

 

[Supermercado]

Would be lucky to end up playing too many more teams in disarray like the Bombers today.

 

[davey_magik]

I think we'll get 8.5 wins and finish around the 10th-12th range.

I wanted 8 at the start of the year and IMO we'll definitely get it.

 

[master bate]

16 - Freo - Subi
17 - Sydney - MCG
18 - Brisbane - Gabba
19 - Richmond - MCG
20 - Hawthorn - MCG
21 - Port - AAMI
22 - North - MCG

With our record on the road I don't give us any chance against Freo or Port, which pretty much means our chances of finals are shot. But we have 4 games at the G and surely the guys should be confident up against Brisbane even at the Gabba. Hopefully wins take care of themselves and we finish in the 10-12 range that we are currently occupying. However we aren't clear of the spoon race yet so I'm not going to declare anything as a done deal. Good tough, fast, hard working footy like today will do me.

 

[thetank]

A good result will be 8.5 wins, although we don't have any matches which we'll go in as favourites - we play the Lions and Powers away, and the Tigers have got good momentum at the moment. Roos smashed us earlier this season.

 

[LITTLE STINGA]

As long as we finish out of the bottom 4 I will be happy everything else is just a bonus. We have to be looking at top 8 next year.

 

[Gazza_11]

16 - Freo - Subi
17 - Sydney - MCG
18 - Brisbane - Gabba
19 - Richmond - MCG
20 - Hawthorn - MCG
21 - Port - AAMI
22 - North - MCG

Bolded are games we should win. Italics are games we are the better team but something about the game goes against us. Underlined are games where we are at a serious disadvantage, but can be competitive.

 

[Theo X]

16 - Freo - Subi
17 - Sydney - MCG
18 - Brisbane - Gabba
19 - Richmond - MCG
20 - Hawthorn - MCG
21 - Port - AAMI
22 - North - MCG

Bolded are games we should win. Underlined are games we are the better team but something about the game goes against us. Underlined are games where we are at a serious disadvantage, but can be competitive.

Do you mean italics means were better team? Brisbane will have JB back for the Gabba game, so they should be favourites i reckon

 

[Ageing Demon]

Do you mean italics means were better team? Brisbane will have JB back for the Gabba game, so they should be favourites i reckon

I actually think we are better chance against Port at AAMI than we are against Richmond. The tigers are burning and unless they fall in a hole the next couple of weeks I think we will struggle to beat them.
Don't write us off next week, the loss of Barlow has left a big hole at Freo.
He was carry all before him and they don't look so flash without him.

 

[wowlace]

Do not want to overachieve. At the start of the year I said I would be happy if we avoided the spoon.

 

[master bate]

I actually think we are better chance against Port at AAMI than we are against Richmond. The tigers are burning and unless they fall in a hole the next couple of weeks I think we will struggle to beat them.
Don't write us off next week, the loss of Barlow has left a big hole at Freo.
He was carry all before him and they don't look so flash without him.

I think putting all of Freo's form down to 1 player is a bit rich. They aren't top 4 for no reason and should stitch us up pretty easy over there. We ran out of legs today (and last week), we will battle on Subi. We also lose our big advantage in the ruck and our get out target around the ground due to Sandiland's ability to compete with Jamar.

 

[wowlace]

WOuld love to see Jamar have good day on Sandles. Will def need to take PJ over aswell.

 

[Gazza_11]

Do you mean italics means were better team? Brisbane will have JB back for the Gabba game, so they should be favourites i reckon

I did actually. I shall edit.

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

WOuld love to see Jamar have good day on Sandles. Will def need to take PJ over aswell.

Definitely. And PJ put up a very strong performance against Sandilands last time, as I remember. If he plays near enough to that level against Freo this time, in the no. 2 role, that would certainly give us the edge in the ruck, I'd say.

 

[DemonLord]

It was funny doing the predictor ladder as I kept expecting us to start to slide down the positions, but when I entered the results I expected for the other games we stayed about the same.

But on the same note, it only took 1-2 matches to be losses instead of wins in my predictions to slide pretty dramatically. Usually because that meant a loss to a side below us, giving them a leg up over us.

I also sat back and had a bit of a reflection on the year so far. 2 very competitive games against the Pies. Good. A competitive game we should of won against the Bullies (damn pink umpires). Also good. Playing all over Port, then being headed only to finally learn how to win a close one. Good.
Losses to a few top sides like the Cats Saints etc were we at least fought the games out and prevented old fashioned pumpings. Step in the right direction. Our break out game against the Lions (although injured) that sort of said, look at us, we don't suck so hard now.

Slow starts most of the season. Bad. Our efforts against North, Weagles, Crowbots V2.0. Very bad.

Most other games went according to script.

Of the new recruits. Very good.

Scully, Trengove, McKenzie, Gysberts all showing something at various times during the year. Continued improvement of players like Grimes, Frawley. Bail also showed something in his time in the seniors.

Watts. Starting to play like he means it and starting to belong. Will only get better with time and I think will be a great KPF in the years to come.

Jamar. Enough said. I came, I saw, I swallowed their ruck divisions and washed it down with gatorade during my 18 second rest per match. Loved the sit with me Leigh Colbert I am too tired to be talk to you. Or the - we had a draw Andy Maher, go away little man. I only talk to important people.

And we have some class to come back from injory and from the VFL. Still quite a few recruits awaiting their time to shine. Which is a good sign of building depth.

And a few of our 100 odd game players like Bartram seem to clicked again, and players like Green are enjoying their footy again.

Bailey. Can be frustrating whe he appears to a: Not have a plan B and b: Not seem to get too fired up when we are getting pantsed. But does seem to know how to develop the youngsters, which rejuventates the veterans (James McDonald for Prime Minister).

Enough waffle from me. Carry on.

DL

 

[KickLongTackleHard]

Good post DL

 

[Ando727]

I won't be hoping for any miracles. I wouldn't want us to pull off a run of wins and make the finals. It would be very typical of Melbourne to somehow sneak into the 8 and then fall into a hole next year. We don't deserve to finish any higher than where we are right now. Today's effort in the last quarter was a disgrace. It was like the team thought they had done enough and couldn't be bothered closing out the game properly. We will need to correct that tendency if we are to become a real powerhouse of the competition. Most disappointing is that the kind of endeavour that got us going early in the year just isn't there most weeks. We still have an awful lot of work to do.

 

[Fairtex]

I won't be hoping for any miracles. I wouldn't want us to pull off a run of wins and make the finals. It would be very typical of Melbourne to somehow sneak into the 8 and then fall into a hole next year. We don't deserve to finish any higher than where we are right now. Today's effort in the last quarter was a disgrace. It was like the team thought they had done enough and couldn't be bothered closing out the game properly. We will need to correct that tendency if we are to become a real powerhouse of the competition. Most disappointing is that the kind of endeavour that got us going early in the year just isn't there most weeks. We still have an awful lot of work to do.

Buzz Killington..

 

[Ando727]

Buzz Killington..

Hey, if you're happy with the way Melbourne has played the last 8 or 9 weeks, good for you. Unlike you, I don't think it's a sign of disloyalty to speak some home-truths. If our team goes around thinking efforts like our final quarter against the Bombers was ok, then god help us. We should all be livid - especially the team. There was no "young and inexperienced" about this - they just slacked off. A good team needs to stay focussed for a whole game. We were actually lucky that a few umpiring decisions went in our favour in the 3rd quarter when the momentum was swinging towards the Bombers. It could have been a different story. And we only beat the Bombers, who are a pretty ordinary team. I'm not that excited about beating them. We have a weak mindset. Always have for as long as I've been alive.

Call me a buzzkill if you like, but pretending that we will continue to march up the ladder without addressing these issues is exactly what will prevent that from happening. I honestly don't know if Bailey is capable of instilling the ruthlessness needed to capitalise on all the raw talent. We have as good a list as we have had for decades, so if we don't become a powerhouse it will be because of a weak mindset. Time will tell.


(waiting for next pie-eyed optimist to tell me to be more positive...)

 

[Fairtex]

Hey, if you're happy with the way Melbourne has played the last 8 or 9 weeks, good for you. Unlike you, I don't think it's a sign of disloyalty to speak some home-truths. If our team goes around thinking efforts like our final quarter against the Bombers was ok, then god help us. We should all be livid - especially the team. There was no "young and inexperienced" about this - they just slacked off. A good team needs to stay focussed for a whole game. We were actually lucky that a few umpiring decisions went in our favour in the 3rd quarter when the momentum was swinging towards the Bombers. It could have been a different story. And we only beat the Bombers, who are a pretty ordinary team. I'm not that excited about beating them. We have a weak mindset. Always have for as long as I've been alive.

Call me a buzzkill if you like, but pretending that we will continue to march up the ladder without addressing these issues is exactly what will prevent that from happening. I honestly don't know if Bailey is capable of instilling the ruthlessness needed to capitalise on all the raw talent. We have as good a list as we have had for decades, so if we don't become a powerhouse it will be because of a weak mindset. Time will tell.


(waiting for next pie-eyed optimist to tell me to be more positive...)

while you're at it, why don't you go and tell all the 5 year olds out there that santa doesn't exist?

 

[stretcharmstrong]

First of all nice post DL. Combined with what Ando727 said right after, your posts are a good representation of our season and where we are at right now. But I do agree 100% with everything Ando727 said. I left the ground without singing the song yesterday I was that disgusted by the last 15 minutes. I stay until the end when we are 10 goals down, but seeing that yesterday really made me think we didn't deserve to celebrate.

while you're at it, why don't you go and tell all the 5 year olds out there that santa doesn't exist?

We ain't five year olds mate . Let's take the rose lenses off our glasses and just be a bit realistic. I loved a lot of what I saw yesterday, particularly the fight we showed after getting jumped in the first 10 minutes of the 3rd which showed a bit of mental toughness rarely displayed by a Demons team, but the mental weakness that generally pervades, and showed during the last 15 minutes of the game is something that cannot be ignored.