Prediction Pick 6

[MyManLynch]

Nathan Murphy at 39 looks very good by foot. He hits targets.

But our players upfield won’t be expecting that...they’ll be shocked & fumble if it’s kicked straight to them...

 

[regpies]

Nathan Murphy at 39 looks very good by foot. He hits targets.

We lucked out there, great pick up for us. Thankfully something positive.

 

[regpies]

He's not as bad a kick as made out and lack of pace in the forward half of the ground is nearly as big an issue as our kicking tbh.

Stephenson probably the second best player in this draft imo. You can't argue with his performances to date and his scope for improvement is much greater than Cerra, Dowe, LDU imo. He does have slightly greater bust potential though.

It gets close when you compare him with Fogarty imo but (a) Fogarty's best footy will be as a big bodied midfielder (providing he can find the endurance) and we already have a lot of quality in that position; and (b) I think the way the game is moving - pace and gut running is becoming more important again - suits Stephenson much more than it does Fogarty. There are questions on fogarty's endurance and if he can't get it to a level to be a good midfielder then he just becomes another good half back flanker and we already have a load of those.

Every player has a weakness or two. But I think with our situation the one non-negotiable moving forward is recruiting elite kicks.

They can be a light build, lack fitness, slow, but they must be an outstanding user and decision maker. At pick 6 we needed the best kick available.

What’s the point of having a line breaker when he’s just going to turn it over. The highlights I’ve seen all his kicks are floaters that give the opposition ample time to cut off or spoil.

 

[Schraderbrau]

Every player has a weakness or two. But I think with our situation the one non-negotiable moving forward is recruiting elite kicks.

They can be a light build, lack fitness, slow, but they must be an outstanding user and decision maker. At pick 6 we needed the best kick available.

What’s the point of having a line breaker when he’s just going to turn it over. The highlights I’ve seen all his kicks are floaters that give the opposition ample time to cut off or spoil.

Depends what position they're playing. Being an elite kick is more important for someone who is playing predominantly behind the ball. We didn't draft Stephenson to play in those spots. He's playing for us as a forward running midfielder or high half forward. Kicking is not as important there because if we are playing well we are moving the ball quickly which means guys like Stephenson will be getting the handball receives, kicking into space and then running on. You don't need to be a dead eye dick to kick into space and his kicking is good enough that it will be to advantage in most of those situations.

Disagree with a few of your other assumptions. Arguable that you can't play AFL if you are unfit and slow these days. Daniel Menzel averages 2 goals a game in 2017, is a brilliant decision-maker and beautiful kick yet was dropped for a final by Geelong for lack of fitness and pace.

Also being a good decision-maker is in many cases a function of a players athleticism. Aish is a perfect example of this. As a junior he was a brilliant decision-maker and kick with all the time in the world. Gets to AFL level and all of a sudden his lack of pace/endurance gives him less time on the ball unpressured and as a result he makes more mistakes. He's also limited in his effectiveness because he doesn't take risks with ball in hand that he would have taken as a junior because he knows (he actually does have a good footy brain which might save him) that he won't get away with it at AFL level. WHE is also not a great decision-maker under pressure but, unlike Aish, what he does have is the pace to get himself into positions where he can receive and dispose of the ball unpressured. WHE was great for us last season at burning teams when we got a break on the rebound. Stephenson will have a similar role and hopefully will make us pretty menacing on the rebound in a year or two.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

But our players upfield won’t be expecting that...they’ll be shocked & fumble if it’s kicked straight to them...

And place Murphy with Wells

Forwards won't know if they artha or martha

 

[Good Degoe]

So who did we get at 6? Stephenson or Murphy?

 

[MyManLynch]

So who did we get at 6? Stephenson or Murphy?

We actually got both for pick 6 then Brown with 38...that’s how I view it.

 

[Kappa]

I’m aware our KPP stocks are shite bar a couple. But at pick 6 what KPP would you have taken?

Naughton was a big chance, but this is bigger than just pick 6.. this is 5 years of incompetent list management that has left us with comfortably the worst KPP group in the AFL.

 

[Black_White]

No key forward again, why Collingwood?

Depends what position they're playing. Being an elite kick is more important for someone who is playing predominantly behind the ball. We didn't draft Stephenson to play in those spots. He's playing for us as a forward running midfielder or high half forward. Kicking is not as important there because if we are playing well we are moving the ball quickly which means guys like Stephenson will be getting the handball receives, kicking into space and then running on. You don't need to be a dead eye dick to kick into space and his kicking is good enough that it will be to advantage in most of those situations.

Disagree with a few of your other assumptions. Arguable that you can't play AFL if you are unfit and slow these days. Daniel Menzel averages 2 goals a game in 2017, is a brilliant decision-maker and beautiful kick yet was dropped for a final by Geelong for lack of fitness and pace.

Also being a good decision-maker is in many cases a function of a players athleticism. Aish is a perfect example of this. As a junior he was a brilliant decision-maker and kick with all the time in the world. Gets to AFL level and all of a sudden his lack of pace/endurance gives him less time on the ball unpressured and as a result he makes more mistakes. He's also limited in his effectiveness because he doesn't take risks with ball in hand that he would have taken as a junior because he knows (he actually does have a good footy brain which might save him) that he won't get away with it at AFL level. WHE is also not a great decision-maker under pressure but, unlike Aish, what he does have is the pace to get himself into positions where he can receive and dispose of the ball unpressured. WHE was great for us last season at burning teams when we got a break on the rebound. Stephenson will have a similar role and hopefully will make us pretty menacing on the rebound in a year or two.

give me a player who hits up targets before a player who bombs it and then “runs on”.
The game is a possession game. You win the ball, you keep the ball.
The win the ball, kick it randomly to the forward line hoping Cloke will mark, days are over.
Hawthorn and Geelong built eras on the pinpoint possession game.
To think recruiting poor kicks will advance our cause is foolish.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

We actually got both for pick 6 then Brown with 38...that’s how I view it.

So trade draft was right after all, we picked two players with one pick

 

[Schraderbrau]

give me a player who hits up targets before a player who bombs it and then “runs on”.
The game is a possession game. You win the ball, you keep the ball.
The win the ball, kick it randomly to the forward line hoping Cloke will mark, days are over.
Hawthorn and Geelong built eras on the pinpoint possession game.
To think recruiting poor kicks will advance our cause is foolish.

1. The bolded is not what I was saying.

2. Saying football is just about possession grossly simplifies things

3. Messing around with short kicks in the backline is high risk low reward nonsense and one of the things has got us into trouble the last two seasons. It wasn't so much that we were a bad kicking team (although that didn't help) as it was the fact we moved the ball so slowly that it was really easy for oposition defenders to organise themselves and rebound back into space. Our season improved when the instructions were sent out for players to take risks in moving the ball quickly and by kicking long into space.

4. You criticise me for living in a past era but then advocate Hawthorn/ Geelong styles of play which are also out of date. The last two premiership teams have not relied on pintpoint possession. They've relied on high pressure defence and fast and direct ball moment. Stephenson helps us a lot with both of those things.

 

[Schraderbrau]

Naughton was a big chance, but this is bigger than just pick 6.. this is 5 years of incompetent list management that has left us with comfortably the worst KPP group in the AFL.

i guess it could just be the case that we don't think that kpps are worth the effort which is a perfectly reasonable position imo

or that we really rate mccarty and think that cox and moore can get the job done.

or both.

 

[partypie]

But our players upfield won’t be expecting that...they’ll be shocked & fumble if it’s kicked straight to them...

We can get the skills team onto him and he'll be kicking balls at their toes or 10m wide / over their heads in no time...

 

[mike123]

What’s the point of having a line breaker when he’s just going to turn it over.

We had heaps of these in our premiership year.

 

[Boogy]

Freo, Nth, Suns and Bris all have v poor backlines. Would all love Reid, Howe, Mclarty,(in 2 years) !
Luv who we got in draft. Stephenson could be superstar.
And he's a bit of character!

 

[CarnMags]

I haven't gone back and read all the commentary on the selection of Stephenson, but I'm absolutely stoked.

This kid is a genuine star.

 

[BPikkers]

We had heaps of these in our premiership year.

Yeah correct and it seems the way we are trying to play is to hold the ball longer and run with it. Picking up players who are better equipped with pace to execute it makes sense imo.

The 2015 draft was very ordinary after the first 15 picks. Looking at those drafted after Sier and it doesn’t look like we missed out on anyone (maybe Adams). I gather that’s why Hi e thought may as well as go for someone from left field and hope he comes on. Unfortunately hasn’t worked at this stage, but we haven’t lost a great deal either.