Traded Pick swap: Carlton trade F1 & F2 (both tied to Carl) to Hawthorn for #14

[Snuffaluphagus]

Tom Morris said we offered 24 and F2 for Eagles F3 and Barrass - just ahead of this trade. Eagles wanted the trade without F3. Grain of salt as always, but that's about as official as you're going to get at this tine of year (assume someone leaked ahead of pick swap trade.)

You mean 14 not 24?

 

[Come back Cyril]

You mean 14 not 24?

Yes. Sorry - typo.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Yes. Sorry - typo.

Yes and so per your original post, WC turned down the trade, not Hawks...

 

[THE_GUN]

This pick swap makes the Houston deal really interesting now

Pies giving up GC #13 + Richards (if they get #13)
Blues have #12 + #14
Houston wants blues from reports

What do the blues give up ?
Port will be demanding both

 

[Come back Cyril]

Yes and so per your original post, WC turned down the trade, not Hawks...

Yes, sorry just realised another typo, which likely cause confusion - have fixed it now. Point still stands that having said 14 and F2 is too much (with WC F3rd coming back being the sticking point), we are not suddenly going to put 2 1sts on the table.

But all speculation at this point. Interesting to see the next move.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Yes, sorry just realised another typo, which likely cause confusion - have fixed it now. Point still stands that having said 14 and F2 is too much (with WC F3rd coming back being the sticking point), we are not suddenly going to put 2 1sts on the table.

But all speculation at this point. Interesting to see the next move.

Hmmm, I always thought Barrass was 14 and a decent 2nd. I think effectively two firsts with two 2nds (one a very good 2nd) is pretty close. We'll see

 

[Ambrosia]

You mean 14 not 24?

To be fair to the Eagles there isn't a lot of difference in the expected value of the Hawks future second and the Eagles future third.

 

[Come back Cyril]

To be fair to the Eagles there isn't a lot of difference in the expected value of the Hawks future second and the Eagles future third.

Yep. Seems that's where the sticking point is. Eagles want 1st and good 2nd. Hawks think 14 + late pick should be enough.

 

[TheBoss]

11 and 14 should be enough ammo to make a run at Brand Petracca

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

To be fair to the Eagles there isn't a lot of difference in the expected value of the Hawks future second and the Eagles future third.

Oh yeah, I think that.was never getting accepted. Take out the F3 and it's closeish

 

[Ambrosia]

Oh yeah, I think that.was never getting accepted. Take out the F3 and it's closeish

I actually think the Eagles should have taken pick 14 and ran for a 29 year old tall defender who is good but not great.

 

[Orange Agent]

Even if there is a part 2 to this, Carlton are gonna have to go deep Sept for this to pay off. Every year there is backfire trade, this has to be short odds.

 

[Jeremias]

Even if there is a part 2 to this, Carlton are gonna have to go deep Sept for this to pay off. Every year there is backfire trade, this has to be short odds.

Interesting. Why?

 

[Guardian Hawk]

I actually think the Eagles should have taken pick 14 and ran for a 29 year old tall defender who is good but not great.

I agree. Pick 14 seems more than fair for a 29 year old at a rebuilding club that's good but not great (0 AA's, squad once a couple of years ago).

Think of the players in the last 5-10 years that have gone for a similar pick.

Pick 14 bought a 23 year old Tom Mitchell.
Pick 12 bought a 23 year old Charlie Cameron.

Any other players traded for a single pick in the mid teens in recentish times? (cos both those two are worth way more than Barrass).

 

[Jacks Seething Rage]

I'd be filthy if we did a contracted Barrass for an uncontracted Baker and a pick in the 20's.

You really shouldn't be.

 

[demon21]

Even if there is a part 2 to this, Carlton are gonna have to go deep Sept for this to pay off. Every year there is backfire trade, this has to be short odds.

That's a bad way to look at the trade, Even if Car had a Avg year doesn't make the trade bad if they nail there pick.

 

[HairyO]

Even if there is a part 2 to this, Carlton are gonna have to go deep Sept for this to pay off. Every year there is backfire trade, this has to be short odds.

Depends who they need this year.

The fail for us is they finish top 4. If they finish around 8th weve done well. Assuming we hang on to the picks.

 

[5minutes_of_Dew]

I'm very happy with this trade from a Hawks perspective.

Even if Carlton win a flag next year, 14 for 18 and 36 isn't a terrible trade.

Plus we get to death ride Carlton's entire season. Imagine if they have another run of injuries like they had at the end of the year, pick 14 could turn into pick 6-10 + pick 24-30.

Makes it spicy.

 

[Jacks Seething Rage]

Depends who they need this year.

The fail for us is they finish top 4. If they finish around 8th weve done well. Assuming we hang on to the picks.

Not really. Just says we are high on this year, not so much next year.

And all going to plan we would be using our 26 first, where F/S Cody Walker may go high, to trade back into 25.

It's a nice each way bet from Austin.

 

[HeHateMe]

Trade 1 little pick 14 and....

 

[Gavin Excell]

Trade 1 little pick 14 and....

It's because nothing else is happening

Trade Week been a fizzer

 

[HeHateMe]

It's because nothing else is happening

Trade Week been a fizzer

I used to follow it and tune in but these days I just listen to the podcasts they post at the end of the day. Way better, get the 5-10 mins of content I'm after and no ads.

 

[bradfisher14]

Even if there is a part 2 to this, Carlton are gonna have to go deep Sept for this to pay off. Every year there is backfire trade, this has to be short odds.

Sure, but if you take into account the relative strength of this year and next year’s drafts you’ll think otherwise. 14 in this draft is equivalent to a top 10 pick in most drafts and potentially a top 5 pick in some of the worse drafts.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Sure, but if you take into account the relative strength of this year and next year’s drafts you’ll think otherwise. 14 in this draft is equivalent to a top 10 pick in most drafts and potentially a top 5 pick in some of the worse drafts.

So the point of the trade is to use at the draft and not to get Houston?

 

[Bagger72]

We are targetting the draft and pick 14 in this years draft is like pick 8 in next years draft.