Pick Swap Completed

[Eddie Dingle]

if we traded in pick 1 for pick 2, some here would still find a way not to like it.

Spot on wazza

 

[GoTheMightyCrows]

With Mead not being invited to the draft night does that pretty much 100% guarantee that no-one will pull a swifty and bid on him prior to our 1st rounders?

 

[Jonts]

The fact that the second 2nd rounder will be worthless, because it will be used up on a bid on Mead. Where as trading it away we got some worth out of it and still get the same player.

Even if this is true (What it may and well be we will find out on draft day). It was clearly the lense the Club has taken with it.

We traded a first rounder , for pick 16, and a pick 30 (you can't claim the 2 picks that will chew up the mead bid and say we got Mead for Free)

If my maths is correct

Has us winning the trade by 217 points or the equivalent of pick 54 if our first rounder is pick 9

Port have pick 8 Next year = port win by the equvilant of pick 61
Have pick 7 = port win by the equivalent of pick 70
Have pick 6 = Brisbane win the trade by pick 68
Have pick 5 = Brisbane win the trade by pick 57
Pick 4 = Brisbane win equivalent of pick 46
Pick 3 = Brisbanewin the trade by pick 34
Pick 2 = Brisbane win the trade by pick 23
Pick 1 = Brisbane win the trade by pick 12

And on the flip side
Have pick 10 = Port win by pick 49
Pick 11 = pick 44
Pick 12 = pick 41
Pick 13 = pick 38
Pick 14 = pick 35
Pick 15 = pick 32
Pick 16 = Pick 30
Pick 17 = pick 29
Pick 18 = pick 27

This is also based of Mead bid going at pick 30. If it is earlier/later it slightly swings it in that way. It also presumes that the picks are equal in different years what according the majority of draft experts isnt the case. Also see there is a lot more risk on Ports end then there is with Brisbane.

To be honest this exercise has made me feel a little bit better but I'm still nervous about not having access to elite talent possibly next year. It makes me double down on the theory that if we had top 3/4/5 pick protection I'd be happy with this trade



Editor's note: the above doesn't include us losing 10 points in the pick 71/72 swap so a handful of the later options will be out by a pick)

 

[Tredrea_Wanganeen_Gray]

"eaten up" lol

 

[Lagooner]

More ‘eaten up’ bullsht huh, keep it coming

Why is it bullshit? If you think someone’s gonna pull the trigger on you the bidding system demands that you either use it or lose it.

 

[PatientMental]

'We're not here for a sugar hit'

Proceeds to trade out all future draft picks.

 

[Duckimus Prime]

What has Schofield and Jones got to do with the equation of this trade?

We gave up potentially pick 10 in 2020 which could turn into pick 13 as you suggested for Brisbane to use.

We still have to find say pick 10 and 20 to draft Schofield + Jones if their form hold up in 2020, and we didn't get anything from Brisbane to help do that.

I'm happy to see this as giving up Pick 13+29 to get pick 16+Mead, but that is the full extent of the equation for this trade.

Because if our first round pick next year was going to be eaten up on matching a Schofield bid, then giving it up is all about getting Schofield + something else, instead of just getting Schofield. That something else maybe this year, or next. Its exactly the same as if GWS trade out their pick 6 for 14 and 17 from Geelong (or whoever has 2 late first round picks). Its all about them getting Green + someone for 17 instead of just Green.

 

[Butters Made Me Do It]

Why is it bullshit? If you think someone’s gonna pull the trigger on you the bidding system demands that you either use it or lose it.

Yeah so trade it for something else rather than lose it, thats why its bullshit.

People keep using ‘eaten up’ logic rather than acknowledge we can trade it (even up to the point of a bid coming in!) and use later points instead

 

[Lagooner]

Yeah so trade it for something else rather than lose it, thats why its bullshit.

People keep using ‘eaten up’ logic rather than acknowledge we can trade it (even up to the point of a bid coming in!) and use later points instead

Isn’t that what we just did?

 

[Butters Made Me Do It]

Because if our first round pick next year was going to be eaten up on matching a Schofield bid, then giving it up is all about getting Schofield + something else, instead of just getting Schofield.

We have literally more than an entire year to resolve Schofield points, including a hopefull post-Hinklet trade period. This is 100% not a trigger we needed to pull now.

 

[shewho]

I think our recruiting staff had their Christmas break up dinner on the 28th (the second night of the draft). The true logic behind the pick swap is that they needed all business finished on the first night so they could get pissed on the Thursday. I respect that.

 

[Butters Made Me Do It]

Isn’t that what we just did?

Yes. Maybe reread the thread.

 

[Spadge]

With Mead not being invited to the draft night does that pretty much 100% guarantee that no-one will pull a swifty and bid on him prior to our 1st rounders?

wouldnt think it will matter that he isnt invited

I saw Twomey had Mead at 21 in last months mock draft

its not out of the realm that geelong could bid at 17 and force us to use 18 on him (if we still have it)
Pretty unlikely though

My guess is Port were worried that Adelaide would take him at 28 forcing us to use 29
Odds are regardless of pick 28, someone else would have bid before 29 anyway

Its always a risk but i cant see anyone "pulling a swifty" and we should land Mead for a couple of 50s picks

 

[Shaucob_Burjan]

Not a fan, we should be stockpiling picks for the Post Hinkley period.

 

[Lagooner]

Yes. Maybe reread the thread.

Honestly, I really can’t be bothered.

 

[Launchpad McQuack]

if we traded in pick 1 for pick 2, some here would still find a way not to like it.

Except if we were given this option we would likely look to trade 2 for 18 and 19 to "secure two top 20 picks".

 

[proman_x]

Will wait and see how the draft pans out before making a final assessment.

 

[Spadge]

I think our recruiting staff had their Christmas break up dinner on the 28th (the second night of the draft). The true logic behind the pick swap is that they needed all business finished on the first night so they could get pissed on the Thursday. I respect that.

someone will still need to hang around to match the Mead bid that will come on the 28th

 

[CharlieKelly]

I'm cautiously optimistic about this trade

If Taj Schofield and/or Lachlan Jones turn out to be first round prospects in 2020, we can afford to trade out our first round pick, especially if it's more of the same next year and we have ~pick 10

Plus, we now have three first round picks before a likely bid on Mead in the second round, I'm happy with that

From Brisbane's perspective, I was looking at their draft picks relative to their list numbers and they had too many draft picks, they've only got four senior vacancies but had six picks in the first four rounds. So that answers that.

 

[NEGAN]

We have literally more than an entire year to resolve Schofield points, including a hopefull post-Hinklet trade period. This is 100% not a trigger we needed to pull now.

unless there is someone we really want this draft as well?

 

[ROBBBO]

Those who take risks often become successful

 

[El Zorro]

When I did math in high school they said you don’t add an amount to only one side of the equation.

Adding Schofield and Jones like that is Janusesque

Big footy word of the year (2019): Janusesque. Let's get it trending #janusesque

 

[VineValerian]

Unless we absolutely shaft some other team is a deal involving 16 and 12 for a higher pick, this deal is bad.

Best case scenario (we finish top 4): we're giving up 2020 pick 16(ish) + 2019 pick 29 for 2019 pick 16. So in that best case scenario we've given away pick 29 for nothing.

The lower we finish next year, the worse this trade gets. Horrendous in isolation.

3 first round picks. Sounds bloody brilliant to me.

No need to try to get into a pick between 7 and 9.

The difference between pick 6 and 25 appears minimal from what a lot of people are saying, so if we pick 3 good players with 12, 16 and 18 then Mead, then it's a good haul from where I sit.

We can trade into the 2020 first round with players such as Wines, etc next season.

 

[ClickBOOM1870]

I actually dont mind this.

1) 29 was likely gone on Mead anyway so meh, whatever.

2) In terms of the 2020 round 1 pick, the chances are it would have diminished in value by the time we made a selection with it anyway due to NGA/FS bids.

What it really comes down to is whether the club feels they can get a better player at 16 this year than what is likely to be available at our projected pick next year.

Personally im excited given who we seem to think is likely to still be on the table at 16 this year.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

wouldnt think it will matter that he isnt invited

I saw Twomey had Mead at 21 in last months mock draft

its not out of the realm that geelong could bid at 17 and force us to use 18 on him (if we still have it)
Pretty unlikely though

My guess is Port were worried that Adelaide would take him at 28 forcing us to use 29
Odds are regardless of pick 28, someone else would have bid before 29 anyway

Its always a risk but i cant see anyone "pulling a swifty" and we should land Mead for a couple of 50s picks

Adelaide will definitely bid on Mead at 28 now.

They will know we will match as we will be using late picks and they will want to chew up as much of our draft capital as possible.

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