Strategy Pick trading pre-draft and mid-draft

[Crow till I die]

You don’t think Picks 1, 10, 13 and Blues future 1r will bring in just as good of talented kids through the door as 2, 3, 6 & Suns future 2r?

If I was Suns would go for option 1, gun mid and plenty talls still to pick from and a future first

I think this is something they would consider as they can load up on some good kids this year knowing already next year they will hold a great draft hand also..spreading the talent may help them in a down the track as it staggers free agency for them

 

[Snake_Baker]

I think this is something they would consider as they can load up on some good kids this year knowing already next year they will hold a great draft hand also..spreading the talent may help them in a down the track as it staggers free agency for them

Mate, if they don't get themselves a decent hand by the time these kids are FA, then we may not have a Suns team to even discuss.

Their issues are much more immediate than that.

 

[footyfan1978]

No, we're going to need next years picks to trade, and we'll lose value for them with FS/A bids anyway..

You've already done your pick swaps. You traded down for Tarryn Thomas and I think Bailey Scott (a son of Robert Scott) as you do not really need the actual picks they likely to be taken at. You just need the points equal to such picks which you get through lots of medium to late picks. Similarly Collingwood have done the same with trading pick 18 and Swans trading pick 13 away. So not much else to do on that front now.

 

[footyfan1978]

Blues board have this a possibility come draft night

Carlton In Picks 5, 6, 8 & 29
Pick 29 traded to another club for future 2r
Carlton Out Pick 1 & future 1r

Suns In Picks 1, 10, 13 & Blues future 1r
Suns Out Picks 2, 3, 29

Power In Pick 2
Power Out Picks 5 & 10

Crows In Pick 3
Crows Out Picks 8 & 13

I think looks complex and don’t think will go along those lines but would like a good result like that if can see 3 players in this draft in the top 8 becoming future afl stars

There is absolutely no way we trading ourselves out of top 2 pick. We would consider trading 1 if offer was so good we still got pick 2 and then another in top 6, which Gold Coast hold the key to. If they want to offer pick 2 and 6 we certainly open but it really amounts to them and us trading pick 1 (assume it's Walsh) and we allow him to go, got my doubts when push comes to shove whether we would. Pick 2 and 6 for 1 certainly would make you think, long and hard.
Would Hawks have traded away Hodge for next pick and pick 6 in his draft ?

 

[StartTheCarr]

Carlton would go for option 1, not so sure about the suns.

They need to bring as many quality kids on to the list in one group as they can, and they'll still have good picks next year anyway (Noah Anderson)

If I was them I would be doing biz with both Port and Adelaide.

Pick 3 to Adelaide for 8 & 13.
Pick 6 & 29 to Port for 10 & 15

Take picks 2, 8, 10, 13, 15 and 24 to the draft.

6 picks inside the top 25 and 2 in the top 10, instead of 4 inside the top 25 and 3 in the top 10.

No chance Port does that trade. We traded 6 in from Freo for picks 11, 23, 30 and 49 then traded that to move up to pick 5. A lot of effort to grab pick 29 with 6.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Carlton would go for option 1, not so sure about the suns.

They need to bring as many quality kids on to the list in one group as they can, and they'll still have good picks next year anyway (Noah Anderson)

If I was them I would be doing biz with both Port and Adelaide.

Pick 3 to Adelaide for 8 & 13.
Pick 6 & 29 to Port for 10 & 15

Take picks 2, 8, 10, 13, 15 and 24 to the draft.

6 picks inside the top 25 and 2 in the top 10, instead of 4 inside the top 25 and 3 in the top 10.

We only have 4 senior list spots and 2 are seemingly reserved for Hickmont and Silvagni as F/S selections. We’d have to do some more delisting if we are planning for that many picks, I can’t see it happening.

 

[eastfreo75]

Looking at the draft period with picks trades, it seems that the team upgrading pay 25-50% more in points.

Swans - Blues deal
https://www.draftguru.com.au/pick-value-calculator#26,28,40|13

Suns - Lions deal
https://www.draftguru.com.au/pick-value-calculator#32,41,44,77|24,58,79

Saints-Demons deal
https://www.draftguru.com.au/pick-value-calculator#36,46|28

Docker-Roos deal
https://www.draftguru.com.au/pick-value-calculator#31|47,49,55

Docker-Port deal
https://www.draftguru.com.au/pick-value-calculator#6,42|11,23,30,49

If the Crows want pick 1, then trade picks 8,13,16,21.

 

[Frank Gallagher]

There is absolutely no way we trading ourselves out of top 2 pick. We would consider trading 1 if offer was so good we still got pick 2 and then another in top 6, which Gold Coast hold the key to. If they want to offer pick 2 and 6 we certainly open but it really amounts to them and us trading pick 1 (assume it's Walsh) and we allow him to go, got my doubts when push comes to shove whether we would. Pick 2 and 6 for 1 certainly would make you think, long and hard.
Would Hawks have traded away Hodge for next pick and pick 6 in his draft ?

No one with a functioning brain would even consider swapping 2 and 6 for pick 1, if someone offered that you'd have to ask where they got the picks from, and demand a receipt.

 

[Suma Magic]

Looking at the draft period with picks trades, it seems that the team upgrading pay 25-50% more in points.

Swans - Blues deal
https://www.draftguru.com.au/pick-value-calculator#26,28,40|13

Suns - Lions deal
https://www.draftguru.com.au/pick-value-calculator#32,41,44,77|24,58,79

Saints-Demons deal
https://www.draftguru.com.au/pick-value-calculator#36,46|28

Docker-Roos deal
https://www.draftguru.com.au/pick-value-calculator#31|47,49,55

Docker-Port deal
https://www.draftguru.com.au/pick-value-calculator#6,42|11,23,30,49

If the Crows want pick 1, then trade picks 8,13,16,21.

Be interesting to work out the draft points index based on all trades in recent years.

A smart maths guy could do it easily I guess.

Maybe a less smart way could be to test a few formulas and then the alignment of the values of all the trades.

It’s bizarre that the points system is so obviously flawed and easily fixed but it’s not even a conversation.

 

[eastfreo75]

Be interesting to work out the draft points index based on all trades in recent years.

A smart maths guy could do it easily I guess.

Maybe a less smart way could be to test a few formulas and then the alignment of the values of all the trades.

It’s bizarre that the points system is so obviously flawed and easily fixed but it’s not even a conversation.

Amazing that the points already has a discount calculated into it.

Therefore, it's a discount on a discount.

 

[Suma Magic]

Amazing that the points already has a discount calculated into it.

Therefore, it's a discount on a discount.

Yeah it’s bullshit. I just started doing my masters thesis on the academies and part of it will be making a more equitable draft index. I’ll post it on here once I’ve done it.

 

[eastfreo75]

Yeah it’s bullshit. I just started doing my masters thesis on the academies and part of it will be making a more equitable draft index. I’ll post it on here once I’ve done it.

sounds great.

Maybe, get rid of the discount.

 

[goodie23]

There is absolutely no way we trading ourselves out of top 2 pick. We would consider trading 1 if offer was so good we still got pick 2 and then another in top 6, which Gold Coast hold the key to. If they want to offer pick 2 and 6 we certainly open but it really amounts to them and us trading pick 1 (assume it's Walsh) and we allow him to go, got my doubts when push comes to shove whether we would. Pick 2 and 6 for 1 certainly would make you think, long and hard.
Would Hawks have traded away Hodge for next pick and pick 6 in his draft ?

You do remember that the Hawks received that pick from Fremantle? Also the small matter that pick-for-pick trading didn't exist then.

 

[bmaurizio]

There is absolutely no way we trading ourselves out of top 2 pick. We would consider trading 1 if offer was so good we still got pick 2 and then another in top 6, which Gold Coast hold the key to. If they want to offer pick 2 and 6 we certainly open but it really amounts to them and us trading pick 1 (assume it's Walsh) and we allow him to go, got my doubts when push comes to shove whether we would. Pick 2 and 6 for 1 certainly would make you think, long and hard.
Would Hawks have traded away Hodge for next pick and pick 6 in his draft ?

If GC Suns offered picks 2 & 6, I’d trade our 1st rounder 2018, no problems at all. If we were to snare Lukosius and Smith or Rooze I’d be absolutely ecstatic, as good as Walsh is, two elite players just make sense.

 

[Peel67skin]

If GC keep pick 2,3

St Kilda 4 could end up
Adelaide Pick 8 , 13
Port 5,15
GC 6, 24

I would take Port option if they offer 5 ,15.

 

[Suma Magic]

sounds great.

Maybe, get rid of the discount.

I think some discount is good, 20% is too big though, alongside a points system which accurately values picks.

 

[boffo]

Would Hawks have traded away Hodge for next pick and pick 6 in his draft ?

They would've got a better result taking picks 3 and 8 for pick 1.

 

[boffo]

A study of NFL draft pick trading concludes you are better off to trade DOWN for more picks, not trade UP for fewer picks.

https://www.vox.com/2015/4/30/8516007/nfl-draft-economics

Conclusion: There are no guaranteed superstars. Two picks gives you better odds than one pick, it diversifies the risk.

So Carlton trading #1 for two high picks makes sense for them, but not for Adelaide or Port. They'd be giving up a top 13 or 10 pick just to move up the order.

 

[eastfreo75]

A study of NFL draft pick trading concludes you are better off to trade DOWN for more picks, not trade UP for fewer picks.

https://www.vox.com/2015/4/30/8516007/nfl-draft-economics

Conclusion: There are no guaranteed superstars. Two picks gives you better odds than one pick, it diversifies the risk.

So Carlton trading #1 for two high picks makes sense for them, but not for Adelaide or Port. They'd be giving up a top 13 or 10 pick just to move up the order.

NBA would be totally different.

AFL is totally different again.
https://www.draftguru.com.au/analysis/pick-value-comparison/medians

The median games for pick 1 is 238 games vs Pick 8 118 games and Pick 13 92 games.

Pick 1 takes 1.8 picks to get an AA compared with pick 8 at 6.2 players and pick 13 5.9 players.

Pick 1 will get you 200 game plus player and most likely an AA and way more brownlow votes.

 

[Crow till I die]

If GC keep pick 2,3

St Kilda 4 could end up
Adelaide Pick 8 , 13
Port 5,15
GC 6, 24

I would take Port option if they offer 5 ,15.

A hell of a price for port to pay for moving up 1 spot considering rozee is most likely there at their current pick 5. I would be amazed if they did that for pick 4

 

[Bluengold91]

Rather we save them for Coniglio

Coniglio will stay at gws, if we did get him it will be for nothing under FA

 

[Iva Bigun]

We’re really keen on Rankine but so are the crows. Not sure how we’d manage to land him without paying massive overs to St Kilda or Gold Coast

Even if you get the Saints pick you aren’t guaranteed the Suns don’t pick him or the Crows get pick 3

 

[Peel67skin]

A hell of a price for port to pay for moving up 1 spot considering rozee is most likely there at their current pick 5. I would be amazed if they did that for pick 4

I agree , but there is a reason St Kilda holding on to pick 4 and trade pick 28 for 36,46. They are hoping for better offer from other club or just go with pick 4 ,36,46 .if GC pick Lukosius and Rankine at 2,3. GC could possibly get one of Bailey Smith , Hately , Jye Caldwell at six . One of the king could go to GWS ,Adelaide,Bulldog .
.

 

[Iva Bigun]

You don’t think Picks 1, 10, 13 and Blues future 1r will bring in just as good of talented kids through the door as 2, 3, 6 & Suns future 2r?

If I was Suns would go for option 1, gun mid and plenty talls still to pick from and a future first

It’s not, bird in the hand, plus we have Brisbane’s pick next year already

 

[footyfan1978]

No one with a functioning brain would even consider swapping 2 and 6 for pick 1, if someone offered that you'd have to ask where they got the picks from, and demand a receipt.

You would think not but clubs do some nutty things at times. Weller for pick 2 is not the trade of a list manager with a functioning brain but it happened by the same club...lol