Strategy Pick trading pre-draft and mid-draft

[footyfan1978]

If the Crows want pick 1, then trade picks 8,13,16,21.

We'd still say no...lol
The points system is not everything. The first 3 or 4 picks are worth more than the present system has them in relation to picks 8 and below.

 

[footyfan1978]

You do remember that the Hawks received that pick from Fremantle? Also the small matter that pick-for-pick trading didn't exist then.

You missed the whole point.

 

[footyfan1978]

If GC Suns offered picks 2 & 6, I’d trade our 1st rounder 2018, no problems at all. If we were to snare Lukosius and Smith or Rooze I’d be absolutely ecstatic, as good as Walsh is, two elite players just make sense.

I do not think it is going to happen. Was just an example. I think some other shit is more likely to go down.

 

[footyfan1978]

They would've got a better result taking picks 3 and 8 for pick 1.

Nobody is ever going to have an offer or 2 and 6 for pick 1 AND 3 and 8 for pick 1 at SAME TIME , and pick the offer with lower picks...lol

 

[Iva Bigun]

You would think not but clubs do some nutting things at times. Weller for pick 2 is not the trade of a list manager with a functioning brain but it happened by the same club...lol

How many number 1 draft picks has your club destroyed the careers of again?
Weller was 3rd in our B&F, how has weitering gone?

 

[footyfan1978]

How many number 1 draft picks has your club destroyed the careers of again?

Zero!
Our number one picks all destined to go on to be 200 game players.
Not one of our number one picks has finished their career.
In fact number one draft picks being destroyed is just a dumb phrase as most across the clubs have long careers. It is why they are number one picks and a smart club rarely trades out of picks 1 to 3.
Happy to help you in your lack of education.

 

[Peel67skin]

Zero!
Our number one picks all destined to go on to be 200 game players.
Not one of our number one picks has finished their career.
In fact number one draft picks being destroyed is just a dumb phrase as most across the clubs have long careers. It is why they are number one picks and a smart club rarely trades out of picks 1 to 3.
Happy to help you in your lack of education.

So is it the more number 1 pick you had, you end up bottom of the table more than any other team .

 

[footyfan1978]

So is it the more number 1 pick you had, you end up bottom of the table more than any other team .

It works, when you end up last you get the number one pick. I know you not be in league long, but surely you work out fundamentals of how the draft order is decided after 8 years.
If you did not know, fair enough, happy to help you understand.

 

[boffo]

NBA would be totally different.

AFL is totally different again.
https://www.draftguru.com.au/analysis/pick-value-comparison/medians

The median games for pick 1 is 238 games vs Pick 8 118 games and Pick 13 92 games.

Pick 1 takes 1.8 picks to get an AA compared with pick 8 at 6.2 players and pick 13 5.9 players.

Pick 1 will get you 200 game plus player and most likely an AA and way more brownlow votes.

Thanks for posting that, interesting chart. I'll need time to have a closer look at what it means.

I'd be interested in what conclusions you draw from it.

 

[captain cotch 9]

We'd still say no...lol
The points system is not everything. The first 3 or 4 picks are worth more than the present system has them in relation to picks 8 and below.

Lets take last year for example....
You are saying that you would say no to trading:
Rayner for: Coffield, Brander, Ed Richards, Oscar Allen.

I rest my case in why the #1 pick is THE most over rated thing in AFL.

 

[TheVelourFog]

Lets take last year for example....
You are saying that you would say no to trading:
Rayner for: Coffield, Brander, Ed Richards, Oscar Allen.

I rest my case in why the #1 pick is THE most over rated thing in AFL.

I'd be furious if the Crows traded all of those picks for pick 1. Drafting is one of the things our club does well and to give up an opportunity to get 4 very good players for 1 great player would be list suicide

 

[TedDougChris]

Quite a few on the Dogs board are keen to somehow extract a second pick BEFORE a likely bid for West arrives.

We have 7 presently, West expected to go around 15 - 20.

Risk is that we trade and then a bid comes earlier than expected and we have effectively wasted the trade.

How we get that extra pick : by downgrading 7 to two picks in the 10-15 or through using next years pick - i am not sure....

 

[eastfreo75]

Quite a few on the Dogs board are keen to somehow extract a second pick BEFORE a likely bid for West arrives.

We have 7 presently, West expected to go around 15 - 20.

Risk is that we trade and then a bid comes earlier than expected and we have effectively wasted the trade.

How we get that extra pick : by downgrading 7 to two picks in the 10-15 or through using next years pick - i am not sure....

I wouldn't trade pick 7(8), your pick is part of the elite 8.

Get West and one of the elite 8. Getting two guns would be great outcome.

 

[TedDougChris]

I wouldn't trade pick 7(8), your pick is part of the elite 8.

Get West and one of the elite 8. Getting two guns would be great outcome.

Yeah, quite a few of us aren’t keen on the Kings, so we don’t necessarily see a top 8, we see us missing a genuine gun midfielder.

Be interesting to see how it plays out....

 

[Suma Magic]

Quite a few on the Dogs board are keen to somehow extract a second pick BEFORE a likely bid for West arrives.

We have 7 presently, West expected to go around 15 - 20.

Risk is that we trade and then a bid comes earlier than expected and we have effectively wasted the trade.

How we get that extra pick : by downgrading 7 to two picks in the 10-15 or through using next years pick - i am not sure....

One option is to use 7, then wait until mid teens and try to trade your future first for 15ish and change. So no risk that you bring in a pick that gets used on west, but a risk that you are too late and west is already bidded on.

I wonder which teams would want to give up a teens pick for a future pick though. Tigers may be the best bet? And they may want to bid on him so that means a deal makes even more sense.

Edit: and I suppose if you are happy with more than 1 player at 7, then you keep downgrading until it stops making sense. Trade 7 to 8 for later picks. Then 8 to 10 for later picks or pick upgrades. In doing so you can build up or improve some later 2018 or 2019 picks, which would help you jump up the order to leapfrog the West bid later in the draft.

 

[eastfreo75]

Yeah, quite a few of us aren’t keen on the Kings, so we don’t necessarily see a top 8, we see us missing a genuine gun midfielder.

Be interesting to see how it plays out....

I would have thought that having B King and Naughton down back is pretty solid.

Easier to get midfielders than key backs.

 

[TedDougChris]

One option is to use 7, then wait until mid teens and try to trade your future first for 15ish and change. So no risk that you bring in a pick that gets used on west, but a risk that you are too late and west is already bidded on.

I wonder which teams would want to give up a teens pick for a future pick though. Tigers may be the best bet? And they may want to bid on him so that means a deal makes even more sense.

Edit: and I suppose if you are happy with more than 1 player at 7, then you keep downgrading until it stops making sense. Trade 7 to 8 for later picks. Then 8 to 10 for later picks or pick upgrades. In doing so you can build up or improve some later 2018 or 2019 picks, which would help you jump up the order to leapfrog the West bid later in the draft.

That’s the beauty and interest of it, when do you make those calls. I still haven’t fully got my head around it, but will be interesting to see.

You would have to wait until one of those picks in the 14 to 19 range was available (ie another club interested) and be able to immediately get and use that pick (to prevent an immediate bid for West).

I’m sure there will be a couple of creative clubs out there...

And we have a reasonable pipeline for F/S coming through, so your comments in the edit are also relevant to our situation. Would make some sense to have a few extra third an fourth round selections in the coming years...

 

[TedDougChris]

I would have thought that having B King and Naughton down back is pretty solid.

Easier to get midfielders than key backs.

We have Cordy, Young, Naughton as young KPD’s, plus an athletic mid sized guy this year as an academy player, need midfield run and kicking skills more. Plus goal scoring !! So perhaps a Hatley/RCD combination (just as examples, not saying they are who we are keen on or would be available) makes more sense....

 

[Malifice]

We’re really keen on Rankine but so are the crows. Not sure how we’d manage to land him without paying massive overs to St Kilda or Gold Coast

Kane Cornes said that the Crows will live trade picks on draft night and if he's correct I'm sure we will be trading up.

This.

Port Adelaide and the Crows will be going hell for leather to trade down to snare Lukosious/ Rankine/ Rozee.

They're not only competing to get picks low enough to snare those fellas (top half a dozen or so) but also to get ahead of the other SA team so they get first dibs.

Port currently in front with Pick 5. They really need a way to manufacture a second pick in the top half a dozen picks. If they can pull that off (say by trading 10 and 15 to GCS for pick 6?) then watch the Crows go all in trying to snare at least one of picks 1-4.

Its going to be fascinating watching the 2 x SA teams duking it out at the pointy end of the draft trying to not only land those SA kids, but also trying to outbid each other and get first dibs.

 

[Iva Bigun]

Zero!
Our number one picks all destined to go on to be 200 game players.
Not one of our number one picks has finished their career.
In fact number one draft picks being destroyed is just a dumb phrase as most across the clubs have long careers. It is why they are number one picks and a smart club rarely trades out of picks 1 to 3.
Happy to help you in your lack of education.

I would say still being on the bottom of the ladder a decade later is exactly as I said destroyed their careers

 

[Iva Bigun]

This.

Port Adelaide and the Crows will be going hell for leather to trade down to snare Lukosious/ Rankine/ Rozee.

They're not only competing to get picks low enough to snare those fellas (top half a dozen or so) but also to get ahead of the other SA team so they get first dibs.

Port currently in front with Pick 5. They really need a way to manufacture a second pick in the top half a dozen picks. If they can pull that off (say by trading 10 and 15 to GCS for pick 6?) then watch the Crows go all in trying to snare at least one of picks 1-4.

Its going to be fascinating watching the 2 x SA teams duking it out at the pointy end of the draft trying to not only land those SA kids, but also trying to outbid each other and get first dibs.

The Suns would be mad to trade down the order. With 3 picks in the top 6 of a super draft surely you just use them. The only scenario I see any of them moving is if one of the SA clubs does a dead set godfather deal. 8, 13 and 16 won’t even get you in the door.

 

[footyfan1978]

The Suns would be mad to trade down the order. With 3 picks in the top 6 of a super draft surely you just use them.

Hopefully you do keep them. Screw giving them away. It is extremely rare any club will ever get the chance again to have 3 picks in top six of a draft and it be a super draft type year. Got to make the most of this. Will be fun watching Crows beg for one of them and still get knocked back and left at pick 8. Although Saints may be willing to be silly enough to pick downgrade out of elite end of this draft.

 

[Iva Bigun]

Hopefully you do keep them. Screw giving them away. It is extremely rare any club will ever get the chance again to have 3 picks in top six of a draft and it be a super draft type year. Got to make the most of this. Will be fun watching Crows beg for one of them and still get knocked back and left at pick 8. Although Saints may be willing to be silly enough to pick downgrade out of elite end of this draft.

Fun indeed, I think the Saints will want better than 8 and 13 for 4.

 

[gillo94]

You would think not but clubs do some nutty things at times. Weller for pick 2 is not the trade of a list manager with a functioning brain but it happened by the same club...lol

Terry Wallace said today on SEN
Blues Crows and Suns heading for big draft pick swaps on draft night

Blues In; Picks 3, 6, 8 & Suns 2019 2r
Blues Out; Pick 1, 2019 1r, 3r & Crows 3r

Suns In; Picks 1, 13, Blues 2019 1r, Crows 2r
Suns Out; Picks 2, 3, 6, 2019 2r

Crows In; Pick 2 and 2019 3r
Crows Out; Picks 8, 13, 2019 2r

Looks good for all clubs

 

[TedDougChris]

Terry Wallace said today on SEN
Blues Crows and Suns heading for big draft pick swaps on draft night

Blues In; Picks 3, 6, 8 & Suns 2019 2r
Blues Out; Pick 1, 2019 1r, 3r & Crows 3r

Suns In; Picks 1, 13, Blues 2019 1r, Crows 2r
Suns Out; Picks 2, 3, 6, 2019 2r

Crows In; Pick 2 and 2019 3r
Crows Out; Picks 8, 13, 2019 2r

Looks good for all clubs

Wallace also had a 5 year plan for Richmond. Believe what you want....