Playing rookie v Better rookie

[Ben the Gooner]

This isn't just a player X v player Y thread, as I know one player is clearly superior to the other. I'm looking for a more theoretical answer.

My question is, for a 9th forward, is it better to have a good rookie who is a while away, versus one who will start, but won't score as well.

My dilemma is Ballantyne v Walker.

To me, it is clear that Ballantyne will well and truly outscore Walker, but is approximately 6 weeks away. With Walker, I fear we may have another Tippet, who will play, but do **** all for the entire season.

My intial plan was to downgrade a Gumbleton or Grant type to Ballantyne after about round 6, when Ballantyne will have hopefully played two games. However, I think that Walker won't make me much money, and will score poorly.

Is it better to start with Ballantyne, and waste 6 or so weeks of cash, or Walker, and burn a trade pretty soon?

 

[rizzo]

My intial plan was to downgrade a Gumbleton or Grant type to Ballantyne after about round 6, when Ballantyne will have hopefully played two games. However, I think that Walker won't make me much money, and will score poorly.

Any money is better then none and Balls wont be playing in that time. That plan is spot on.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

But is that money worth a trade, given it won't be much? That's the question I'm asking. Gumbleton and Grant would have scored more than Walker, in my mind, had they been playing.

 

[Schulzenfest]

I've got the same issue in deciding between Ziebell and Sidebottom.

 

[ozzyoslo]

I've got the same issue in deciding between Ziebell and Sidebottom.

Laidley will bow to the pressure of the masses..........all Nth Melb supporters want to see the kid play straight away

 

[dylan123]

i think u should go for walker because if ballantyne comes back round 6 it still gives u another 2 rounds before u have to cash in 1 of ur forward rookies to him. also in that time it will give the rookie 5 rounds to make u money which should be pretty good and then if ballantyne takes a bit longer or has further set backs u still have a rookie playing

 

[Ben the Gooner]

Sorry, I didn't make that clear enough.

According to reports from WA, Ballantyne will play 1-2 games in the WAFL, and that will be 2-3 weeks after the season starts. Meaning he will go up in price after round 6.

 

[Skeeta Olly]

To you, is that potential trade worth {x} amount of dollars that you think will be made or not?

 

[scotty4]

im having the same dilemma, however i think i may put ballantyne in and hope i dont get injuries, rather than swap walker or whoever down for him after a couple of rounds. will be interesting.

 

[Dolokk]

im having the same dilemma, however i think i may put ballantyne in and hope i dont get injuries, .

Only issue with that is what if Ballantyne takes a bit longer to recover than expected (not that uncommon), at round 6 you have to weigh up whether to wait and lose money gained by a walker, or to trade back to a rookie which would cause you to waste a trade anyway.

Depends whether you want to bet on Ballantyne's health more than walker's underscoring?

 

[Pie Legend]

Laidley will bow to the pressure of the masses..........all Nth Melb supporters want to see the kid play straight away

I thought the same with Riggio and Hansen for starters.

Laidley will do what he thinks is best for the team, not just to appease the fans.

 

[Selective Retention]

I was pondering this a couple of weeks back. At the end of the day I think you are better off taking the player that will play in this case as by the time Ballantyne is ready to play, say round 6 (+2 rounds in AFL before his value will change), your other rookie forward (say Ziebell) should be ready to be cashed in even if your suss forward (Walker in your case) turns out to be a dud and doesn't appreciate enough for you to warrant trading out for Ballantyne.

 

[BartBart]

A bird in the hand is worth more than two in the bush. Ballantyne could get hurt again and you could be waiting longer. If you miss a bargain, then so be it. Better than wasting a trade (in my books for what it's worth!)

 

[Still_Crowin23]

I agree with most peoples thoughts, get the playing rookie now. You can be sure (i hope) that walker is going to play, you dont know exactly when Ballantyne is going to debut. Also i think walker will average more tippet did last year. Tippet averaged high 30s from memory and im thinking walker will be 10ppg better

 

[Virgil]

I think position is also fairly important when making this decision. I've had a few of these decisions to make and I've found it depends on the depth/scoring potential of the rookies.

In the forward line I've gone with players who will play immediately in the hope of picking up some of the better looking DT players 6-7 rounds in, whereas in the rucks I decided that the depth wasn't there to justify leaving out the best and selected them from the start, regardless of the fact they will more than likely miss round 1.

 

[fatmungus]

Just a quick question. I have some money left over and wondering if i should upgrade walker or brown in forward bench.

Are there other cash cows besides walker/ballentyne? Hentchel is only 30,000 more and probably will go up as well. Also yarran could be on your bench. He is more expensive but if you guys are talking about money made then shouldn't you pick whom ever.

Just a thought??

Here we go, a scenario if you will:

Cox and MacIntosh in ruck, Yarran and Hentchel in Fwd bench

or

Cox and Hille in ruck, 2 of Walker/ballentyne/brown on bench (86k's)

Sure hille will post 20ppg more than MacIntosh but you've definitly increased your cash making potential on the bench.

I know this is an extreme, maybe pick one?

 

[Lakey91]

Pick the rookies that will play.

 

[__aria__]

what makes you think hille will post 20ppg more than mcintosh?

hmac comfortably outscored hille in 07 and it could very well happen again

 

[coast2coast]

Ballantyne won't average much more than Walker anyway.

 

[banana_bus]

Ballantyne won't average much more than Walker anyway.

Well definitely not in the first few rounds