Polls Thread Mk IV

[Hank Scorpion]

New parliament, so a new polling thread is in order. Mods can this please be stickier?

Newspoll
Primaries (swings from July election)
L/NP: 41 (-1.0)
ALP: 36 (+1.3)
Greens: 9 (-1.2)

2PP
L/NP: 50 (-0.4)
ALP: 50 (+0.4)

Approval ratings (Approve-Disapprove)
Turnbull: 34-52, (-6),(+5)
Shorten: 36-50, (-), (-1)

Preferred PM
Turnbull: 43 (-5)
Shorten: 32 (+1)

No honeymoon for Mal. Gillard had her personal ratings rise for a few months after the 2010 election.

Essential
Primaries
L/NP: 40
ALP: 37
Greens: 10

2PP
L/NP: 49
ALP: 51

Preferred SSM voting method
Plebiscite: 59
Parliament: 25

Treatment of asylum seekers
Too tough: 21
About right: 31
Too soft: 29


ReachTel - NSW State
Primaries (swings from '15 election)
L/NP: 43 (-3)
ALP: 38 (+2)
Greens: 9 (-1)

2PP
L/NP: 50 (-4)
ALP: 50 (+4)

Preferred Premier
Baird: 49
Foley: 51

The preferred premier result is truly bizarre. It's usually a question that favours the incumbent, especially when responses are forced. Luke Foley had been seen as a bit of a dud, so I've no idea where this surge comes from.

 

[Number37]

ReachTel - NSW State
Primaries (swings from '15 election)
L/NP: 43 (-3)
ALP: 38 (+2)
Greens: 9 (-1)

2PP
L/NP: 50 (-4)
ALP: 50 (+4)

Preferred Premier
Baird: 49
Foley: 51

The preferred premier result is truly bizarre. It's usually a question that favours the incumbent, especially when responses are forced. Luke Foley had been seen as a bit of a dud, so I've no idea where this surge comes from.

The greyhound racing ban will see that the National cop a hammering at the next election.

 

[Reynolds Number]

People have had enough of the run of short sighted decision making from the NSW government. It is starting to catch up on them.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Essential
Primaries
L/NP: 39 (-1)
ALP: 37 (-)
Greens: 10 (-)
One Nation: 5
Xenophon: 3

2PP
L/NP: 48 (-1)
ALP: 52 (+1)

Expectation of next election timing
Full term: 35
Early election: 38

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Virtually unchanged

Newspoll
Primaries
L/NP: 41 (-)
ALP: 36 (-)
Greens: 9 (-)

2PP
L/NP: 50 (-)
ALP: 50 (-)

Approval ratings (Approve-Disapprove)
Turnbull: 34-53, (-),(+1)
Shorten: 35-52, (-1), (+2)

Preferred PM
Turnbull: 43 (-)
Shorten: 31 (-1)


EDIT: and Essential too, although i would have thought this would break as a 53-47

Primaries
L/NP: 38 (-1)
ALP: 37 (-)
Greens: 10 (-)
One Nation: 5 (-)
Xenophon: 4 (+1)

2PP
L/NP: 48 (-)
ALP: 52 (-)

Should donations be allowed from... (yes-no)
Property developers: 16-69
Foreign companies: 12-74
Australian companies: 32-51
Unions: 20-64 (strangely only 25% of Labor voters are okay with this)
Individual voters: 50-35

Changes to the Racial Discrimination Act
Support: 45
Oppose: 35

Illicit drugs:
Decriminalise possession, use, production, trafficking: 11
Decriminalise possession, use: 31
Prohibit all activities: 48

 

[Fire]

Interesting that shorten has slightly better approval/disapproval numbers, but still trails preferred pm by 12.

It really is a useless stat.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Edging closer to ALP-53

Essential
Primaries
L/NP: 37 (-1)
ALP: 37 (-)
Greens: 10 (-)
One Nation: 6 (+1)
Xenophon: 4 (-)

2PP
L/NP: 48 (-)
ALP: 52 (-)

Support for same-sex marriage
Yes: 60
No: 30

Providing public funding for yes/no SSM plebiscite campaigns:
Support: 22
Oppose: 68

Concern about hate speech throughout SSM campaign:
Concerned: 48
Not concerned: 39

http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Essential-Report_160920.pdf


Galaxy - SA State
Primaries
LIB: 35
ALP: 27
Xenophon: 22
Greens: 7
Family First: 5

2PP
LIB: 53 (+2)
ALP: 47 (-2)

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Big movement in Newspoll:

Newspoll
Primaries
L/NP: 38 (-3)
ALP: 37 (+1)
Greens: 10 (+1)

2PP
L/NP: 48 (-2)
ALP: 52 (+2)

Approval ratings (Approve-Disapprove)
Turnbull: 32-55, (-2),(+2)
Shorten: 36-51, (+1), (-1)

Preferred PM
Turnbull: 44 (+1)
Shorten: 33 (+2)

The L/NP primary has now fallen below where it was just before Abbott was toppled.

 

[Showbags]

Big movement in Newspoll:

Newspoll
Primaries
L/NP: 38 (-3)
ALP: 37 (+1)
Greens: 10 (+1)

2PP
L/NP: 48 (-2)
ALP: 52 (+2)

Approval ratings (Approve-Disapprove)
Turnbull: 32-55, (-2),(+2)
Shorten: 36-51, (+1), (-1)

Preferred PM
Turnbull: 44 (+1)
Shorten: 33 (+2)

The L/NP primary has now fallen below where it was just before Abbott was toppled.

PM Julie Bishop within 6 months......bank on it.

 

[Fire]

Jeez I want to meet the 5% of greens voters against ssm.