2025 Federal Election - Prediction Thread

[Nugett]

How is Labor favourite in the betting? Unbelievable how can people not want change - look at cost of living, look at wages not going up, look at interest rates

Cost of living went up before Labor got elected. One of the first things Scomo did when he got elected was reduce penalty rates for retail workers. Then pushed for a parliamentary pay rise. Compared to Albo who did increase minimum wage, when he first got in. Once again Interest rates were going up well before Labour got into office.

Dutton’s Nuclear plan is going to put Australia further into debt. With Trump being Trump, it is highly probable that the world ends up in a major recession/depression. The last thing Australia needs currently is frivolous spending on something we don’t need. so I’m happy for not wanting change, as I see Dutton’s vision much more damaging.

 

[DangerousD]

Strongly doubt it. The number one talking point on Sky After Dark if the Liberals lose will be “Dutton was too Woke! Dutton was too leftist! We need to go further right” as it is after every election loss.

There’s no moderates left any more and branches are made up of solid conservative boomers so they aren’t going to preselect moderates.

Dutton’s problem is firstly he’s unappealing and unliked, and he tied the campaign too close to MAGA (Jacinta and the hat).

They get a leader like Hastie, younger, more polished but still conservative. They can run the same policies but delivered in a more gentle way and with less linking to Trump.

To stop the thread drift I’m not going to bother with a seat prediction until a day or two before (a week is a long time in politics). I suspect the Libs and the media will run a last ditch “the boats are coming back under Labor!” 2022 style fear message at the very end so it’s fresh in the minds of voters on election day.

Was this written before he went on a tirade about the ABC and Guardian about being peddlers of hate and before calling the Greens an antisemitic Jew hating party?

Well either way, you were bang on.

 

[DangerousD]

Sadly Albo will win, Australians are not too bright, let's hope that the consolation prize is the total defeat of all Greens and Teals candidates. Dutton has blown this election with a poor campaign and we will be stuck with these incompetents for another 3 years. Bowen, Watt, Marles, Chalmers, Wong, Gallagher and the king bunny of them all Albo himself. The mind boggles!

What policies of the Greens and Teals (the latter who aren’t a party) that get you so angry?

 

[Harro59]

Saw my first LNP Sturt specific ad yesterday from James Stevens.

First time I've seen him in 3 yrs.

But listening to various pundits, Labor are ahead in Sturt, mainly due to many people in the seat being public servants who don't want to be forced back to the office for no good reason.

I was surprised when I read that, however Sturt has been held Liberal for a while and there is a reason for that.

Whilst some of the areas include the North-Eastern Suburbs, there is a good portion of the electorate that are part of the Eastern suburbs like Burnside, Glenside, Norwood which are all typically Liberal stronghold areas. well traditionally really.

Its pretty early to call and we have seen a swing away from the Liberals and James Stevens in previous elections.
I haven't seen much of James Stevens around the place, whereas Claire Clutterham is a local councilor within the electorate and has been more visible in my opinion.

However in saying all of that, my call is that the Liberals will hold Sturt, only just.

 

[The_torpedo]

forget seat totals, who will have the biggest on-air temper tantrum after failing to win their seat?

my pick is Ameila Hamer (the renter with 2 investment properties) chucking a tanty after Monique Ryan increases her margin in Kooyong.

a surprise pick for me is Clive Palmer sulking up a storm claiming the election was rigged after TOP only gets 1% of the 1st preference votes. Nobody believes it. Everybody laughs at him.

 

[Fire]

How is Labor favourite in the betting? Unbelievable how can people not want change - look at cost of living, look at wages not going up, look at interest rates

What specific labour policies or inactions do you think Dutton is going to correct?

Or is it just the vibe?

 

[pjcrows]

DemosAU Poll
ALP 53
LNP 47

Essential Poll
ALP 53
LNP 47

 

[Rotayjay]

I was surprised when I read that, however Sturt has been held Liberal for a while and there is a reason for that.

Whilst some of the areas include the North-Eastern Suburbs, there is a good portion of the electorate that are part of the Eastern suburbs like Burnside, Glenside, Norwood which are all typically Liberal stronghold areas. well traditionally really.

Its pretty early to call and we have seen a swing away from the Liberals and James Stevens in previous elections.
I haven't seen much of James Stevens around the place, whereas Claire Clutterham is a local councilor within the electorate and has been more visible in my opinion.

However in saying all of that, my call is that the Liberals will hold Sturt, only just.

As much as I'd like to see the Liberals lose Sturt and they got over the line by a bee's dick in 2022, I can't see it happening in the likes of Burnside and Kensington. It looks much more like an eventual teal seat than a Labor seat.

 

[Rotayjay]

Are we seeing poll herding, like 2019?

 

[pjcrows]

Are we seeing poll herding, like 2019?

There's definitely a hint of that.

 

[Gough]

As much as I'd like to see the Liberals lose Sturt and they got over the line by a bee's dick in 2022, I can't see it happening in the likes of Burnside and Kensington. It looks much more like an eventual teal seat than a Labor seat.

I think they'll lose Sturt. James Stevens has been almost invisible something you could never accuse Pyne of, the demographic is becoming younger with more apartments, and sub divided blocks and they don't like Dutton.

 

[Fire]

interesting that the polymarket has had Labour falling from ~83 to 79 over the last day. I'm not sure if there has been anything or some people are just jumping on some good odds for a two horse race.

 

[schneebly111]

interesting that the polymarket has had Labour falling from ~83 to 79 over the last day. I'm not sure if there has been anything or some people are just jumping on some good odds for a two horse race.

Released today Roy Morgan poll showing a 2.5% 2PP drop for Labor and Essential poll 1% 2PP drop.

This puts them at 52-48, which is where most polls had the Gillard government at before they won minority on 50.1% 2PP in 2010, and just one above the 51-49 where polls had Bill Shorten at in 2019 before he lost 48.5-51.5

Truth is polls mostly overestimate Labor by 1-3% each election.

 

[Kyptastic]

Are we seeing poll herding, like 2019?

The Polls in 2019 basically didn't move for the entirety of the election campaign, they all pretty much had Labor between 51 and 52%. This election it's been a lot more all over the shop, not really comparable to that election.

 

[faible]

However the people won't do anything about it?

Not voting in a party that is noticeably and repeatedly shitter at managing the economy seems like a good start. The modern LNP are a joke.

 

[schneebly111]

So time for my prediction, and I’ve gone through this seat by seat. I don’t like saying this but I think Labor’s chances have been way overstated. I think this is a lot closer than some of the headlines and polls predict.

NT
Both seats to fall to the LNP, Labor is not popular in the Territory and the anti crime messaging is hitting hard

QLD
Most QLD seats are very locked in but Labor could face a challenge in Blair but they should still hold it. I think the “Greenslide” is over with Ryan going back to LNP and Brisbane to the ALP.

NSW
People saying Labor will have trouble in Victoria but I think NSW will be their biggest problem. I think they picked up some semi rural seats in 2022 because of the fresh memories of floods and bushfires but they have faded now so the marginals of Gilmore, Robertson and Paterson will return to the LNP. Parramatta, Reid, Werriwa and Hunter will be much closer and although I still have them going to the ALP I’m not going to be shocked if they go LNP. But I do think they’ll nab Bennelong due to a boundary change. A strong ON vote and greater and preferences to the LNP (something I think a lot of “analysts” are discounting) may help them in those marginals. Rural Calare and semi rural Mackellar to return to the LNP. Richmond will be an ALP hold despite a strong Green challenge.

Victoria.
I have them coming very close in Chisholm but it’ll be an ALP hold. Aston and McEwen to go to the LNP. Broadbent to lose to the LNP and one of Goldstein or Kooyong to return to the Libs (I’ll give them Kooyong)

Tasmania.
Bridget Archer will hold Bass but Lyons will be a Lib pickup.

SA.
No changes, I think the ALP will hold up well in Boothby but their primary is too low to pick up Sturt and even with Greens preferences they’ll fall short.

WA.
Bulwinkel is semi rural and a strong National and ON showing will pick it up for the LNP. They’ve selected a better candidate for Tangney so that should return to the fold. As a Curtin resident I think Chaney will lose, I’ve never seen so much LNP paraphernalia in my life and the feeling is it’s time for the seat to “go back to its true home”. WA has never been a fan of federal Labor and 2022 as an anomaly so expect a return to the norm.

So (and while this is going away from the norm) my predictions is:

ALP 69
LNP 72
Green 2
Independent/Other 8

For the ALP Wilkie and the Greens are their only guaranteed support.

Le and Katter to support LNP taking them to 73. The Coalition should then find 2 to guarantee supply. The rest of the independents all repent rural or wealthy inner city areas that were all previously LNP. They remember the fatal mistake of Oakeshott and Windsor in 2010.

The magic number for Labor is 71, or 72 if the Greens don’t win a QLD seat. Wilkie and Bandy should guarantee them supply, and then they could probably guarantee supply whereas the Coalition would have to deal with the whole crossbench.

I think the increased vote for ON, the increased preference flow of ON to LNP and a lot of traditional LNP seats returning to the fold without an unpopular incumbent PM to keep them away will make a difference. Added to the general over polling of the Labor primary at recent elections and the lack of marginal LNP seats for the ALP to gain vs a larger number of marginals for the ALP to gain.

Given my prediction it isn’t far for Labor to win, 3 more pickups for them and it’s 72-69 and they’ll have a much easier time of forming a minority government (albeit one which will be relentlessly hammered for 3 years as being dictated by “commie” Greens) but all up I think it’s very close.

It’s obvious from my posts I’m no fan of the Coalition but my gut is telling me they’re far closer than the current sentiment suggests. I really really hope I’m wrong however!

 

[RedStarUncle]

So time for my prediction, and I’ve gone through this seat by seat. I don’t like saying this but I think Labor’s chances have been way overstated. I think this is a lot closer than some of the headlines and polls predict.

NT
Both seats to fall to the LNP, Labor is not popular in the Territory and the anti crime messaging is hitting hard

QLD
Most QLD seats are very locked in but Labor could face a challenge in Blair but they should still hold it. I think the “Greenslide” is over with Ryan going back to LNP and Brisbane to the ALP.

NSW
People saying Labor will have trouble in Victoria but I think NSW will be their biggest problem. I think they picked up some semi rural seats in 2022 because of the fresh memories of floods and bushfires but they have faded now so the marginals of Gilmore, Robertson and Paterson will return to the LNP. Parramatta, Reid, Werriwa and Hunter will be much closer and although I still have them going to the ALP I’m not going to be shocked if they go LNP. But I do think they’ll nab Bennelong due to a boundary change. A strong ON vote and greater and preferences to the LNP (something I think a lot of “analysts” are discounting) may help them in those marginals. Rural Calare and semi rural Mackellar to return to the LNP. Richmond will be an ALP hold despite a strong Green challenge.

Victoria.
I have them coming very close in Chisholm but it’ll be an ALP hold. Aston and McEwen to go to the LNP. Broadbent to lose to the LNP and one of Goldstein or Kooyong to return to the Libs (I’ll give them Kooyong)

Tasmania.
Bridget Archer will hold Bass but Lyons will be a Lib pickup.

SA.
No changes, I think the ALP will hold up well in Boothby but their primary is too low to pick up Sturt and even with Greens preferences they’ll fall short.

WA.
Bulwinkel is semi rural and a strong National and ON showing will pick it up for the LNP. They’ve selected a better candidate for Tangney so that should return to the fold. As a Curtin resident I think Chaney will lose, I’ve never seen so much LNP paraphernalia in my life and the feeling is it’s time for the seat to “go back to its true home”. WA has never been a fan of federal Labor and 2022 as an anomaly so expect a return to the norm.

So (and while this is going away from the norm) my predictions is:

ALP 69
LNP 72
Green 2
Independent/Other 8

For the ALP Wilkie and the Greens are their only guaranteed support.

Le and Katter to support LNP taking them to 73. The Coalition should then find 2 to guarantee supply. The rest of the independents all repent rural or wealthy inner city areas that were all previously LNP. They remember the fatal mistake of Oakeshott and Windsor in 2010.

The magic number for Labor is 71, or 72 if the Greens don’t win a QLD seat. Wilkie and Bandy should guarantee them supply, and then they could probably guarantee supply whereas the Coalition would have to deal with the whole crossbench.

I think the increased vote for ON, the increased preference flow of ON to LNP and a lot of traditional LNP seats returning to the fold without an unpopular incumbent PM to keep them away will make a difference. Added to the general over polling of the Labor primary at recent elections and the lack of marginal LNP seats for the ALP to gain vs a larger number of marginals for the ALP to gain.

Given my prediction it isn’t far for Labor to win, 3 more pickups for them and it’s 72-69 and they’ll have a much easier time of forming a minority government (albeit one which will be relentlessly hammered for 3 years as being dictated by “commie” Greens) but all up I think it’s very close.

It’s obvious from my posts I’m no fan of the Coalition but my gut is telling me they’re far closer than the current sentiment suggests. I really really hope I’m wrong however!

I reckon this is a pretty reasonable analysis, but also I reckon it's about as pessimistic as it gets for ALP.

- Losing McEwen on a 3.8 swing even with their Vic problems is a big call
- Losing Solomon on an 8.4 swing even bigger call

- Bad result from Teals and Greens. Not sure what Dutton offers to a Teal/Green voter that Morrison didn't. Spending more money on corflutes and negative ads probably least effective when you talk about the Teal demographic. Maybe Kooyong as there's been a lot of heat and controversy there but conversely maybe Teals get Wannon / a couple of other surprises that polling doesn't tell us are in play at a local level.

- Losing all 3 of Gilmore, Robertson, and Paterson (I initially thought they would all go... but 2+ swing given the national polling starting to look less likely save for Victoria which will have a disproportionate stronger swing. I agree with your Parramatta and above call staying with ALP with some close calls, but I think Paterson actually is the line ALP will hold in NSW)

- Losing Tangney. I think the profile of Tangney is one that Dutton just won't appeal to so despite a better local candidate I think ALP holds here. Pre-WA state election I probably had Tangney, Pearce, Bullwinkel and maybe even Swan all going to Libs... but now I think they all hold and mabe even Moore comes into play for ALP on preference leakage through the Teal candidate and Goodenough

- No pickups (other than Sturt). As above... I think Moore is gettable if the national polls are right. Sturt too. I don't know if either goes, but if the swing is disproportionate in Victoria compared to national polling then that also means if McEwen goes on that extra swing, one of these could go the other way and counter the loss




I can see some of the above happening, but not all of it. Hence why I think your just about hitting the worst case for ALP realistically saving for a massive polling miss.

 

[schneebly111]

I can see some of the above happening, but not all of it. Hence why I think your just about hitting the worst case for ALP realistically saving for a massive polling miss.

Nah the worst case scenario for Labor would be a lot of seats with a soft Labor vote and dependence on Green and even some of the ON preferences like Hunter, Parramatta, Reid, Werriwa, Blair, Chisholm and Pearce all going to the LNP to give them a 79-62 tally. I’ve backed Labor but it would not surprise me if one or more of those seats ends up in a blue column on Saturday.

For me it just seems much harder for Labor to make any pickups, and I’m very certain they’re going to lose at least enough seats to bring them into minority government.

Losing Solomon on an 8.4 swing even bigger call

The local NT sentiment is extremely anti Labor and there’s a reason Dutton mentioned the WTC this week. He’ll pick up two lower house seats because of that dog whistle.

- Losing Tangney. I think the profile of Tangney is one that Dutton just won't appeal to so despite a better local candidate I think ALP holds here. Pre-WA state election I probably had Tangney, Pearce, Bullwinkel and maybe even Swan all going to Libs... but now I think they all hold and mabe even Moore comes into play for ALP on preference leakage through the Teal candidate and Goodenough

Nah Tangney and Moore are two blue blood areas that may back a conservative leaning state ALP government but want a blue blood “proper” Liberal in office, even if they’re a bit rough around the edges.

- Bad result from Teals and Greens. Not sure what Dutton offers to a Teal/Green voter that Morrison didn't.

Chaney in Curtin has been one of the better Teals and yet the feeling here is “she’s never going to be part of a government and deliver for us where at least a Liberals has a chance of being in government”.

- Losing all 3 of Gilmore, Robertson, and Paterson (I initially thought they would all go... but 2+ swing given the national polling starting to look less likely save for Victoria which will have a disproportionate stronger swing. I agree with your Parramatta and above call staying with ALP with some close calls, but I think Paterson actually is the line ALP will hold in NSW)

The thing is there’s 7-8 ALP seats in NSW that are gettable for the Liberals, even if they’re only get half of them that’s going to put Labor on thin ice to avoid not being able to form a minority government.

 

[DaRick]

Nah Tangney and Moore are two blue blood areas that may back a conservative leaning state ALP government but want a blue blood “proper” Liberal in office, even if they’re a bit rough around the edges.

Anyone who thinks Dutton is a blue blood 'proper' Liberal needs their head read.

Chaney in Curtin has been one of the better Teals and yet the feeling here is “she’s never going to be part of a government and deliver for us where at least a Liberals has a chance of being in government”.

Isn't Curtin a blue-ribbon seat? You know the area better than me, but it doesn't seem like a seat that will rush out to vote for Dutton.

The thing is there’s 7-8 ALP seats in NSW that are gettable for the Liberals, even if they’re only get half of them that’s going to put Labor on thin ice to avoid not being able to form a minority government.

Fair enough.

 

[schneebly111]

Anyone who thinks Dutton is a blue blood 'proper' Liberal needs their head read.

Isn't Curtin a blue-ribbon seat? You know the area better than me, but it doesn't seem like a seat that will rush out to vote for Dutton.

Hence why the state Liberals have erased Dutton in the state. It’s all about the “local” candidates. They all come from the “right” private school backgrounds, work in the “right” professions, have the “right” upbringing, have the “right” social circles.

Fair enough.

Hey I think it’s probably a 55-45 ballgame at this stage so anyone’s game, the key thing with my analysis is to wake up the opinion in here that the Liberals are going to be destroyed and Labor is on track for 85+ seat majority. They could come close to that, or we could see a Liberal majority.

And in minority I still have to remind people of the lesson of 2010. Oakeshott and Windsor were popular rural independents who backed Labor in minority. The reaction in their electorates was so bad they declined to contest their seats again and they went back to solid National seats.

The Teals are mostly not rurals but will face a similar backlash if they support a Labor minority that’s made changes to super balances, high income tax rates, a lot of things which wealthy people love. My thought is they’ll support Dutton under the pretense they can “make Dutton more socially moderate” but can’t make Labor “cut taxes for the wealthy”.

 

[Rotayjay]

So time for my prediction, and I’ve gone through this seat by seat. I don’t like saying this but I think Labor’s chances have been way overstated. I think this is a lot closer than some of the headlines and polls predict.

NT
Both seats to fall to the LNP, Labor is not popular in the Territory and the anti crime messaging is hitting hard

QLD
Most QLD seats are very locked in but Labor could face a challenge in Blair but they should still hold it. I think the “Greenslide” is over with Ryan going back to LNP and Brisbane to the ALP.

NSW
People saying Labor will have trouble in Victoria but I think NSW will be their biggest problem. I think they picked up some semi rural seats in 2022 because of the fresh memories of floods and bushfires but they have faded now so the marginals of Gilmore, Robertson and Paterson will return to the LNP. Parramatta, Reid, Werriwa and Hunter will be much closer and although I still have them going to the ALP I’m not going to be shocked if they go LNP. But I do think they’ll nab Bennelong due to a boundary change. A strong ON vote and greater and preferences to the LNP (something I think a lot of “analysts” are discounting) may help them in those marginals. Rural Calare and semi rural Mackellar to return to the LNP. Richmond will be an ALP hold despite a strong Green challenge.

Victoria.
I have them coming very close in Chisholm but it’ll be an ALP hold. Aston and McEwen to go to the LNP. Broadbent to lose to the LNP and one of Goldstein or Kooyong to return to the Libs (I’ll give them Kooyong)

Tasmania.
Bridget Archer will hold Bass but Lyons will be a Lib pickup.

SA.
No changes, I think the ALP will hold up well in Boothby but their primary is too low to pick up Sturt and even with Greens preferences they’ll fall short.

WA.
Bulwinkel is semi rural and a strong National and ON showing will pick it up for the LNP. They’ve selected a better candidate for Tangney so that should return to the fold. As a Curtin resident I think Chaney will lose, I’ve never seen so much LNP paraphernalia in my life and the feeling is it’s time for the seat to “go back to its true home”. WA has never been a fan of federal Labor and 2022 as an anomaly so expect a return to the norm.

So (and while this is going away from the norm) my predictions is:

ALP 69
LNP 72
Green 2
Independent/Other 8

For the ALP Wilkie and the Greens are their only guaranteed support.

Le and Katter to support LNP taking them to 73. The Coalition should then find 2 to guarantee supply. The rest of the independents all repent rural or wealthy inner city areas that were all previously LNP. They remember the fatal mistake of Oakeshott and Windsor in 2010.

The magic number for Labor is 71, or 72 if the Greens don’t win a QLD seat. Wilkie and Bandy should guarantee them supply, and then they could probably guarantee supply whereas the Coalition would have to deal with the whole crossbench.

I think the increased vote for ON, the increased preference flow of ON to LNP and a lot of traditional LNP seats returning to the fold without an unpopular incumbent PM to keep them away will make a difference. Added to the general over polling of the Labor primary at recent elections and the lack of marginal LNP seats for the ALP to gain vs a larger number of marginals for the ALP to gain.

Given my prediction it isn’t far for Labor to win, 3 more pickups for them and it’s 72-69 and they’ll have a much easier time of forming a minority government (albeit one which will be relentlessly hammered for 3 years as being dictated by “commie” Greens) but all up I think it’s very close.

It’s obvious from my posts I’m no fan of the Coalition but my gut is telling me they’re far closer than the current sentiment suggests. I really really hope I’m wrong however!

Excellent post and will be worth revisiting in a few weeks when all results are known.

 

[DaRick]

Hence why the state Liberals have erased Dutton in the state. It’s all about the “local” candidates. They all come from the “right” private school backgrounds, work in the “right” professions, have the “right” upbringing, have the “right” social circles.

Blue-ribbon seats are quite well-informed as a general rule; I doubt Curtin falls for that.

Moore and Tangney, maybe.

(Actually, does pretending your leader doesn't exist ever work? Maybe in the most politically apathetic seats.)

Hey I think it’s probably a 55-45 ballgame at this stage so anyone’s game, the key thing with my analysis is to wake up the opinion in here that the Liberals are going to be destroyed and Labor is on track for 85+ seat majority. They could come close to that, or we could see a Liberal majority.

And in minority I still have to remind people of the lesson of 2010. Oakeshott and Windsor were popular rural independents who backed Labor in minority. The reaction in their electorates was so bad they declined to contest their seats again and they went back to solid National seats.

The Teals are mostly not rurals but will face a similar backlash if they support a Labor minority that’s made changes to super balances, high income tax rates, a lot of things which wealthy people love. My thought is they’ll support Dutton under the pretense they can “make Dutton more socially moderate” but can’t make Labor “cut taxes for the wealthy”.

Yeah, but 2025 is not 2010, and in terms of reputation, Dutton makes 2010-era Abbott look like John Howard.

Teal voters didn't vote in the teals just so Dutton could run the show (Albo might not be popular in those seats, but Dutton's radioactive). I agree they'd be in between a rock and a hard place, but I reckon they wind up getting more harshly punished if they back Dutton, given his prior reputation and demonstrable incompetence (no way he runs a good government).

And they almost certainly know that.

 

[schneebly111]

Here’s a good article to consider regarding how One Nation will be a greater help to the Libs this year vs last election

Coalition counts on One Nation preferences to narrow gap

Almost nine in 10 preferences from One Nation and other right-wing minor parties are flowing towards the Coalition in some heartland Labor seats it is targeting.

www.afr.com

I agree that a lot of polls using last election preferences are understating the right wing to LNP preference share.

 

[DaRick]

Here’s a good article to consider regarding how One Nation will be a greater help to the Libs this year vs last election

Coalition counts on One Nation preferences to narrow gap

Almost nine in 10 preferences from One Nation and other right-wing minor parties are flowing towards the Coalition in some heartland Labor seats it is targeting.

www.afr.com

I agree that a lot of polls using last election preferences are understating the right wing to LNP preference share.

I think they are, too.

Get too close to the right-wing parties though, and you wind up alienating the centre.

I'd be amazed if that didn't happen this time, especially with someone like Dutton in charge.

 

[pjcrows]

Three days out, the LNP have blown out to $7.00 at Sportsbet.