Positive stats to lighten the mood 2024

[John Who]

Welcome to all you positrons, electrons, neutrons and ambiguously charged! In this particular thread, I shall attempt to provide some stats to show that all is not a lost cause, with the proviso…we keep the momentum rolling..

Disclaimer: I’m not predicting any guaranteed results by the end of the year, but just to share some positive vibes for those wishing to seek such vibes.

This is the current ladder position after 10 rounds (will only include teams that are still a realistic chance of making the Finals):
1. Sydney 9W 155%
2. Dons 7W1D 103%
3. Cats 7W 112%
4. Port 7W 111%
5. Pies 6W1D 108%
6. GWS 6W 116%
7. Dees 6W 113%
8. Suns 6W 112%
9. Freo 6W 112%
10. Blues 6W 102%
11. Dogs 5W 126%
12. Lions 4W1D 117%
13. Crows 3W1D 101%

——————————————

Not a great look from a club position perspective. From a momentum perspective, however, it does look drastically different..
If we take current form as an arbitrary “the last 6 rounds”, then the current form ladder looks like this:

1. Sydney 6W 181%
2. Pies 5W1D 129%
3. Dons 5W1D 123%
4. Suns 4W 129%
5. Port 4W 104%
6. Lions 3W1D 129%
7. Crows 3W1D 117%
8. Dogs 3W 127%
9. Cats 3W 107%
10. Dees 3W 102%
11. Freo 3W 112%
12. GWS 2W 116%
13. Blues 2W 102%

This form guide in the above isn’t only significant in terms of the most recent form for all teams, but it reflects well that the top 8 teams “in form” have the best win counts AND best score percentages, with the only exception of Port (higher win count with a poor score percentage).

By some coincidence, 4 of our last 5 games have been played against the top 6 “in form” teams! What this tells us is that we’re playing at the right level of intensity, despite some recent close losses/draws. We’re matching it well with the best of the bunch, current form that is.

 

[John Who]

What’s more pleasing is the change of momentum from point A (first 4 rounds) to point B (last 6 rounds):

After round 4, we were looking very pathetic with an abysmal percentage:
0W 75%.

With the current state of 3W1D 117%, we have improved a winning percentage by 58% and a score percentage boost of 42%!
Across the board after round 4, this was where we were:

With the exception of Sydney being the front runner of momentum change, we are possibly the most improved team since round 4 regarding wins and score percentage differentials.

The question really now becomes: can we hold this momentum of “current form”? Or will we go back in our shell and play the “4 rounds of debacle” form?

 

[Southerntakeover]

Teams which beat us are 'in form ' and good by virtue of having that win, therefore we, who do not win games, are also very good.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Reserved for editing.

Preserving this posts peak while it lasts

 

[FR0GGY]

Welcome to all you positrons, electrons, neutrons and ambiguously charged! In this particular thread, I shall attempt to provide some stats to show that all is not a lost cause, with the proviso…we keep the momentum rolling..

Disclaimer: I’m not predicting any guaranteed results by the end of the year, but just to share some positive vibes for those wishing to seek such vibes.

This is the current ladder position after 10 rounds (will only include teams that are still a realistic chance of making the Finals):
1. Sydney 9W 155%
2. Dons 7W1D 103%
3. Cats 7W 112%
4. Port 7W 111%
5. Pies 6W1D 108%
6. GWS 6W 116%
7. Dees 6W 113%
8. Suns 6W 112%
9. Freo 6W 112%
10. Blues 6W 102%
11. Dogs 5W 126%
12. Lions 4W1D 117%
13. Crows 3W1D 101%

——————————————

Not a great look from a club position perspective. From a momentum perspective, however, it does look drastically different..
If we take current form as an arbitrary “the last 6 rounds”, then the current form ladder looks like this:

1. Sydney 6W 181%
2. Pies 5W1D 129%
3. Dons 5W1D 123%
4. Suns 4W 129%
5. Port 4W 104%
6. Lions 3W1D 129%
7. Crows 3W1D 117%
8. Dogs 3W 127%
9. Cats 3W 107%
10. Dees 3W 102%
11. Freo 3W 112%
12. GWS 2W 116%
13. Blues 2W 102%

This form guide in the above isn’t only significant in terms of the most recent form for all teams, but it reflects well that the top 8 teams “in form” have the best win counts AND best score percentages, with the only exception of Port (higher win count with a poor score percentage).

By some coincidence, 4 of our last 5 games have been played against the top 6 “in form” teams! What this tells us is that we’re playing at the right level of intensity, despite some recent close losses/draws. We’re matching it well with the best of the bunch, current form that is.

Can you do the ladder for just rounds 7 & 8?

 

[John Who]

Can you do the ladder for just rounds 7 & 8?

Lighten up Froggy.

 

[whitey_1975]

Looks like your trying to polish a terd. Sorry man.

 

[Mr_Moogle]

This reads like someone realised the draw is about to soften up and wants to get their crack papering done early.

 

[El Doederino]

We still lead the league alphabetically

 

[John Who]

Looks like your trying to polish a terd. Sorry man.

I’m seeing a decent form turn around, and I just wanted to share some stats. I doubt it if I can change anyone’s mind on here, but I guess more for those who enjoy analysing the numbers.

 

[FR0GGY]

Lighten up Froggy.

Ok just rd 7 then?

 

[Dangerousfield]

Thanks John, I felt a whole lot better after reading your table about how we have all this momentum to propel us into the top eight.

Then I remembered our regular bottom half dozen players are liabilities.

Then on further looking at your rosy table I noticed who the other form teams were over the last six rounds and I realised we play a whole bunch of those other form teams in the run home. Winnable games against Brisbane at the Gabbatoir, Geelong at Kardinia Park, Essendon at Marvel, Showdown their home game and finally easybeats Swans twice! I watched the Swans dismantle and roger Carlton on Friday night, not a passenger in that Swans side.

Given we need to win 10 of the remaining 13 games, we'd be needing McFlurry, Murphy, ROB etc to amazingly reinvent themselves, Smith to turn back the clock four years, Tex to rediscover 2023 form, ah the list goes on.

You always try to paint rosy pictures John, but lets face facts, Nicks & Co blew our season in the first month with the stupid persistence with the vanilla midfield and are continuingly so conservative in selection. We continue to play 5-6 players who wouldn't be getting a game at the five teams above.

Nice try John, I won't be buying what your selling.

 

[John Who]

Thanks John, I felt a whole lot better after reading your table about how we have all this momentum to propel us into the top eight.

Then I remembered our regular bottom half dozen players are liabilities.

Then on further looking at your rosy table I noticed who the other form teams were over the last six rounds and I realised we play a whole bunch of those other form teams in the run home. Winnable games against Brisbane at the Gabbatoir, Geelong at Kardinia Park, Essendon at Marvel, Showdown their home game and finally easybeats Swans twice!

Given we need to win 10 of the remaining 13 games, we'd be needing McFlurry, Murphy, ROB etc to amazingly reinvent themselves, Smith to turn back the clock four years, Tex to rediscover 2023 form, ah the list goes on.

You always try to paint rosy pictures John, but lets face facts, Nicks & Co blew our season in the first month with the stupid persistence with the vanilla midfield and are continuingly so conservative in selection. We continue to play 5-6 players who wouldn't be getting a game at the five teams above.

Nice try John, I won't be buying what your selling.

You got me smiling out of that post. Can you at least admit I got a smile out of you for reading my brilliant stats analysis?

 

[Dangerousfield]

You got me smiling out of that post. Can you at least admit I got a smile out of you for reading my brilliant stats analysis?

Yours? Stolen from David King on First Crack last night LOL

John, can you at least admit that our regularly selected bottom half dozen are not AFL standard and wouldn't get a game at the top sides?

 

[Mr_Moogle]

Then on further looking at your rosy table I noticed who the other form teams were over the last six rounds and I realised we play a whole bunch of those other form teams in the run home. Winnable games against Brisbane at the Gabbatoir, Geelong at Kardinia Park, Essendon at Marvel, Showdown their home game and finally easybeats Swans twice! I watched the Swans dismantle and roger Carlton on Friday night, not a passenger in that Swans side.

Round 14 onward is pretty brutal. Could easily go 2W-8L.

I'm not even confident about this weeks game. The Reid hype is getting to me and Rankine is out injured....

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I will once again feel truly positive about this club when we play finals again... which sadly won't be this year thanks to wasting our 1st month of football with a terrible game plan.

 

[John Who]

Yours? Stolen from David King on First Crack last night LOL

John, can you at least admit that our regularly selected bottom half dozen are not AFL standard and wouldn't get a game at the top sides?

I haven’t been following any footy shows this year. I’ve found other life hobbies/commitments and don’t even come on BF as much these days.

I can admit our bottom half a dozen isn’t as strong as the top contending teams, but I can also see that our youngsters are still not good enough or fit enough to surpass the older blokes. Things are changing though and I think some more kids will come on by next year. I really don’t care who gets selected at AFL as long as we continue to improve as a club.

 

[John Who]

I will once again feel truly positive about this club when we play finals again... which sadly won't be this year thanks to wasting our 1st month of football with a terrible game plan.

I think it was a combination of bad tactics but also necessary changed tactics due to player injuries and players being out of form. Tex and TT injured initially didn’t help our cause. Dawson, Rachele, Rankine playing some of their worst games in those first few rounds. Then there was Fog hitting the post from a metre out! The entire team was a complete shambles, with general poor kicking and goal kicking, some of these issues had nothing to do with coaching tactics.

 

[1970crow]

Teams which beat us are 'in form ' and good by virtue of having that win, therefore we, who do not win games, are also very good.

I think choosing arbitrary measures instead of the full array of results is perfectly valid. Remember last year how we were the best performed against the top 4 sides and what a springboard into 2024 that would be.

 

[1970crow]

Round 14 onward is pretty brutal. Could easily go 2W-8L.

I'm not even confident about this weeks game. The Reid hype is getting to me and Rankine is out injured....

Don't worry about this week, no away wins and average losing margin of 50 points. Doub5 it's going to be the 100+ po8nt demolition of last year, but it'll be a comfortable enough 5 or so goal win.

 

[Coopers]

Round 14 onward is pretty brutal. Could easily go 2W-8L.

I'm not even confident about this weeks game. The Reid hype is getting to me and Rankine is out injured....

Given that, have we had the worst draw in the comp? Must be close.

We've already played all the teams at the top of the "momentum ladder", excluding Sydney... who we get twice, and the run home is a nightmare.

 

[PCORF]

Don't worry about this week, no away wins and average losing margin of 50 points. Doub5 it's going to be the 100+ po8nt demolition of last year, but it'll be a comfortable enough 5 or so goal win.

West Coast do have a pretty good record at AO, esp up to 2020.

 

[skam85]

We still lead the league alphabetically

Wrong, we are Kuwarna

 

[Slippery Pete]

Lighten up Froggy.

I know, he’s such a stick in the mud

 

[El Doederino]

Wrong, we are Kuwarna

Ah fiddlesticks