Prediction Possible pick swaps

[Bollox]

So lets blow this entire draft...what happens when Green is matched...oh that's right we don't get him rendering the trade up absolutely useless. Plus to trade up to 3 we'd need to use our future pick anyway. Are you happy trading our future first..I sure as anything am not and not for just a small upgrade. What is wrong taking an Ash (whom we lack as we are as slow as a truck in defence), or someone else. Back Darymple with a few in the top 40. I would have rather flipped a future second for a second this year, but understand we need to bank points for Gulden.

WTF
What happens when GWS matches 3 and get Greene ? You just jumped over Dees and Crows and now have the choice of absolutely anyone. The first live pick.
What happens if Dees take Serong. Crows take Serong ? Lets say that's the guy we're after at 5 right now.
Now what ?
I'm ok coz I don't care either way about Serong, but maybe the club cares.
So now we take whatever is left ?
Next best ?

How could it possibly be worthless to guarantee the guy you want, regardless of whether you snare Greene ? You GURANTEE you get Serong if that's the guy you wanted at 5. You guarantee ANYONE you want. You don't have him on a wish list anymore.

It doesn't even matter if you have a kid in mind to take at 32. Its a 90% chance you wont get him unless he is actually more like a pick 50 in reality.
Most picks in the 30's arnt first choice for any club. Usually a compromise pick at that point...one of perhaps 3 you have up your sleeve when the guy you want is taken.
Stop being so damn conservative.

If we cant have Greene we settle for another, our choice of anyone. Damned if i'd not bother even trying. Especially if its simply to hold a late 2nd rnd pick in an average draft.

We don't know what GWS will do. We know what they will most likely do. The Greene thing still needs to be forced and for little downside it can be.

 

[TryAnHit]

Why would melb do 3 for 5 and 32
When they could do 3 for 6 and 2020 first?

 

[sregit]

They can't go into deficit against picks they don't have yet.
[/QUOTE
Yes they can.
Their draft points next year for their pick(s) is adjusted by the number of points they're in deficit. Once the new number of points is calculated, their pick is adjusted from the original position to the position related to the newly calculated points.

 

[Bollox]

Why would melb do 3 for 5 and 32
When they could do 3 for 6 and 2020 first?

Who knows what they want. Next yr is a compromised draft. Arguably weaker.
They only have 2 live picks this year. 3+8. They may want to hold tight or may prefer more.
Offers get thrown around to find out what clubs want to do.

What would help is someone to come in here and show us a source where it says that Gold Coasts pick 1 and 2 are definitely off limits.
They could easily get three top 10's for that. What happens if GC decide they'd rather 2,3 8 instead of 1,2 ? Are they allowed to ? Is the priority pick unswappable ?
Still so much "i'll bet that..." "I fully expect that..."

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Good one from our board

Assuming GWS fail to move higher, the next best thing is to protect 6 while getting a top 10 pick after the Green bid comes through.

Pre- Draft
6 -> Two future 2nds (Freo, and Melbourne)

Live draft
Future 1st (GWS) -> 10

Net
6, Future GWS 1st ---> 10, Future 2nd (Freo), Future 2nd (Dee's)

 

[perplexed]

Yes, but you aren't permitted to go further into deficit than the value of the future picks you hold - which would be the case under the proposed scenario.

 

[Crow till I die]

Good one from our board

Assuming GWS fail to move higher, the next best thing is to protect 6 while getting a top 10 pick after the Green bid comes through.

Pre- Draft
6 -> Two future 2nds (Freo, and Melbourne)

Live draft
Future 1st (GWS) -> 10

Net
6, Future GWS 1st ---> 10, Future 2nd (Freo), Future 2nd (Dee's)

So GWS drop from 6 to 10 but gain 2 x 2nd rounders and Freo take a big hit to the chin in 'helping out' GWS by moving up from 10 to 6 AND getting a 2020 1st rounder - on top of keeping pick 7. How magnanimous of the Freo board to come up with such a trade

Alternatively, GWS might just trade with Adelaide for pick 4. sending 6 and their 2020 1st the other way

 

[perplexed]

So GWS drop from 6 to 10 but gain 2 x 2nd rounders and Freo take a big hit to the chin in 'helping out' GWS by moving up from 10 to 6 AND getting a 2020 1st rounder - on top of keeping pick 7. How magnanimous of the Freo board to come up with such a trade

Alternatively, GWS might just trade with Adelaide for pick 4. sending 6 and their 2020 1st the other way

As mentioned earlier, if GWS make that trade with Adelaide they won't have sufficient points left to match a Sydney bid on Green. Pick 5 = 1502 points after the discount. They have 733 points this year and can go max 699 deficit next year, that's not enough. GWS can't afford to trade up.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

So GWS drop from 6 to 10 but gain 2 x 2nd rounders and Freo take a big hit to the chin in 'helping out' GWS by moving up from 10 to 6 AND getting a 2020 1st rounder - on top of keeping pick 7. How magnanimous of the Freo board to come up with such a trade

Alternatively, GWS might just trade with Adelaide for pick 4. sending 6 and their 2020 1st the other way

Hey, didnt say we didnt benefit, doesnt really matter if GWS benefit as well, already had a GWS dude on our board liking it

If GWS future 1st is not even worth a 3 pick upgrade in an even draft according to Melbourne then its hardly worth much at all.

IF GWS were sure that Melbourne werent going to bid at 3 then they'd clearly rather do that but that's a big risk.

Our trade removes all the risk with a Green bid and still gets them a top 10 pick in a really even top 10. There's even half a chance Jackson is still there at 10.

The net scenarios for GWS at this stage are
1) Pick 3, Green - no 1st or 2nd round pick next year (wiped out through the points deficit)
2) Maybe pick 4 and Green - maybe a 2nd round pick next year depending on where he's bid on
3) Green, pick 10, a 2nd round pick or 2 next year (from our trade, they would have three 2nd round picks to eat up the point deficit from this year)

Does the net result with Freo really look that bad?

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

As mentioned earlier, if GWS make that trade with Adelaide they won't have sufficient points left to match a Sydney bid on Green. Pick 5 = 1502 points after the discount. They have 733 points this year and can go max 699 deficit next year, that's not enough. GWS can't afford to trade up.

Is this confirmed, because they are clearly trying to get to pick 3 so I assume they know the rules around bidding and point deficits.

Edit: This would make the trade I put forward even better, GWS would have 3 2nd round picks to trade into this year for some points

 

[perplexed]

Is this confirmed, because they are clearly trying to get to pick 3 so I assume they know the rules around bidding and point deficits

I think they stopped trying to trade up after the player trade period ended.

I don't see how a club can go into deficit using picks they don't have as collateral. My bank wouldn't stand for it.

But I think even using later future rounders to go into deficit is a bit tenuous after you have already traded your future first rounder under the current rules.

 

[Crow till I die]

As mentioned earlier, if GWS make that trade with Adelaide they won't have sufficient points left to match a Sydney bid on Green. Pick 5 = 1502 points after the discount. They have 733 points this year and can go max 699 deficit next year, that's not enough. GWS can't afford to trade up.

then a solution is that the crows include pick 28 and get picks 40 & 59 back so that should help with points. Crows can then look to trade back into the late 20's / low 30's using some of their picks

 

[perplexed]

then a solution is that the crows include pick 28 and get picks 40 & 59 back so that should help with points. Crows can then look to trade back into the late 20's / low 30's using some of their picks

That works, if Adelaide agree to it.

 

[Two Planks]

If the Giants go into the negative on points for next year's draft how do they pay up. Is it draft night next year or prior to the trade period.

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

As mentioned earlier, if GWS make that trade with Adelaide they won't have sufficient points left to match a Sydney bid on Green. Pick 5 = 1502 points after the discount. They have 733 points this year and can go max 699 deficit next year, that's not enough. GWS can't afford to trade up.

Adelaide have 23, 28, 37, 45 and 49 to put on the table this year too. Work backwards from 49 until you have enough points. Simples.

there are two obvious deals that could happen between GWS and Adelaide prior to or on draft night.

the first is as has been discussed ad infinitum being pick 6 + GWS 2020 1st for pick 4 and a combination of the above picks for points

The second option is pick 6 and GWS 2020 1st for Adelaide 2020 1st and a combination of the above picks for points. This alternative gives GWS their top 10 pick in addition to Green, just 12 months later, and Adelaide take picks 4 and 6 to the draft this year.

The second trade would open up a lot of options for Adelaide to deal with GCS for them to get the extra top 10 pick they are after, Geelong who want a top 10 pick or to switch Freo into the 2020 draft if an early bid comes for Henry.

 

[Crow till I die]

Adelaide have 23, 28, 37, 45 and 49 to put on the table this year too. Work backwards from 49 until you have enough points. Simples.

there are two obvious deals that could happen between GWS and Adelaide prior to or on draft night.

the first is as has been discussed ad infinitum being pick 6 + GWS 2020 1st for pick 4 and a combination of the above picks for points

The second option is pick 6 and GWS 2020 1st for Adelaide 2020 1st and a combination of the above picks for points. This alternative gives GWS their top 10 pick in addition to Green, just 12 months later, and Adelaide take picks 4 and 6 to the draft this year.

The second trade would open up a lot of options for Adelaide to deal with GCS for them to get the extra top 10 pick they are after, Geelong who want a top 10 pick or to switch Freo into the 2020 draft if an early bid comes for Henry.

Yeah..since the AFL just gave them a kings ransom, then pick 6 for their 15, 20 & 2020 pick 11 seems bout fair after the crumbs they threw us for Greenwood

 

[Thetrader15]

Adelaide have 23, 28, 37, 45 and 49 to put on the table this year too. Work backwards from 49 until you have enough points. Simples.

there are two obvious deals that could happen between GWS and Adelaide prior to or on draft night.

the first is as has been discussed ad infinitum being pick 6 + GWS 2020 1st for pick 4 and a combination of the above picks for points

The second option is pick 6 and GWS 2020 1st for Adelaide 2020 1st and a combination of the above picks for points. This alternative gives GWS their top 10 pick in addition to Green, just 12 months later, and Adelaide take picks 4 and 6 to the draft this year.

The second trade would open up a lot of options for Adelaide to deal with GCS for them to get the extra top 10 pick they are after, Geelong who want a top 10 pick or to switch Freo into the 2020 draft if an early bid comes for Henry.

As a crows fan, I like option 2.

It would need to be something like:

Adel 2020/1, 28, 37, 45 -> 6, 60, GWS 2020/1

 

[perplexed]

Adelaide have 23, 28, 37, 45 and 49 to put on the table this year too. Work backwards from 49 until you have enough points. Simples.

there are two obvious deals that could happen between GWS and Adelaide prior to or on draft night.

the first is as has been discussed ad infinitum being pick 6 + GWS 2020 1st for pick 4 and a combination of the above picks for points

The second option is pick 6 and GWS 2020 1st for Adelaide 2020 1st and a combination of the above picks for points. This alternative gives GWS their top 10 pick in addition to Green, just 12 months later, and Adelaide take picks 4 and 6 to the draft this year.

The second trade would open up a lot of options for Adelaide to deal with GCS for them to get the extra top 10 pick they are after, Geelong who want a top 10 pick or to switch Freo into the 2020 draft if an early bid comes for Henry.

Sounds okay. But I reckon any of these trades will only happen if Melbourne pass on Green.

 

[Hawker55]

What would help is someone to come in here and show us a source where it says that Gold Coasts pick 1 and 2 are definitely off limits.
They could easily get three top 10's for that. What happens if GC decide they'd rather 2,3 8 instead of 1,2 ? Are they allowed to ? Is the priority pick unswappable ?

FWIW, there were multiple people on our board who were very confident we'd inquired about pick 2 during trade week and were told to get lost.

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

Sounds okay. But I reckon any of these trades will only happen if Melbourne pass on Green.

Well if Melbourne bid on Green then GWS would be crazy not to try for option 2

 

[Jebus18]

Alot depends on what the teams are demanding from GWS, claims on Dees board they want 6 and 2 other first rounders for 3, if that’s close to what the trade would cost the option with freo looks better for them

 

[perplexed]

Well if Melbourne bid on Green then GWS would be crazy not to try for option 2

Yep, definitely very attractive for GWS, but I think Adelaide would be crazy to include their future first in any deal.
GWS will go into the draft with multiple pre-agreed pick trades depending on who bids on Green.

 

[THE_GUN]

OK guys lets go a different way to this thread and see how it goes

Tigers have picks #38 + #39 + #41 + #56 all up for trade

which teams does it suit and whats the offer

 

[Jebus18]

OK guys lets go a different way to this thread and see how it goes

Tigers have picks #38 + #39 + #41 + #56 all up for trade

which teams does it suit and whats the offer

Freo would be keen with 22 to get more points maybe, will come down to how many list spots and how many picks we can take into the draft

 

[Peel67skin]

OK guys lets go a different way to this thread and see how it goes

Tigers have picks #38 + #39 + #41 + #56 all up for trade

which teams does it suit and whats the offer

Sadly every draft pick team need to allocate a list spot.