Prediction Possible pick swaps

[Crazy Tails]

It’s possible.

But I don’t think there are any teams with picks in the 20s that will be matching bids?

Yeah well there is that too!


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[Joao]

On the first night of the draft I’d like to trade Brisbane’s pick 34 and 2020 future first round pick to Fremantle for pick 58 and their 2020 first round pick.

I'm not a fan of us trading our 2020 first (because we aint that good) but in principle your idea is fine but you'd need to give us enough points to completely cover Henry's bid at the very least. In fact, you'd have to give us a better deal than the automatic downgrading of our first next year because of the deficit.

 

[TryAnHit]

It’s possible.

But I don’t think there are any teams with picks in the 20s that will be matching bids?

Port with mead will

 

[Senor M]

It’s possible.

But I don’t think there are any teams with picks in the 20s that will be matching bids?

Port with mead will

What pick does Port Adelaide have in the 20's?

 

[TryAnHit]

What pick does Port Adelaide have in the 20's?

The imaginary one that i thought they had

 

[THE_GUN]

Port with mead will

Port doesnt need to trade any picks to match nead , They currently have
52,55,66,67,68 =661 points
Pick 22 bid is 845 points minus 197 point discount they only need 647 points to match the bid

A bid would need to come prior to pick #21 for them to fall short but they can go into deficit which wont be much
Bid for need will come 25-40 imo

 

[Superkoops]

Port doesnt need to trade any picks to match nead , They currently have
52,55,66,67,68 =661 points
Pick 22 bid is 845 points minus 197 point discount they only need 647 points to match the bid

A bid would need to come prior to pick #21 for them to fall short but they can go into deficit which wont be much
Bid for need will come 25-40 imo

Do Port have the list spots to head into the draft with all these picks?

Looking at Freo for eg. they have 5 list spots so 79 and 83 and goneski. Meaning other clubs with picks 84 onwards will move at least 2spors forward.

At last review Port only have 6 list spots available so would lose picks 67 onwards???

Is that correct or not?

 

[Pure_Ownage]

So am I right in saying the league will allow a team to do a pick swap to match a bid on a player tied to them?

ie: if a player gets bid on at 22 and the clubs next pick is 26 can they trade out 26 (after the bid has been placed) for 2 later picks of enough value to still land that player (and then maybe get some residual value at the end of the draft?

I’m hoping the Pies might try and package 35 and 48 together (equivalent pick 23) to get into the 20s. This would only work if we could do the above.


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Yes they can.

 

[briztoon]

Port doesnt need to trade any picks to match nead , They currently have
52,55,66,67,68 =661 points
Pick 22 bid is 845 points minus 197 point discount they only need 647 points to match the bid

A bid would need to come prior to pick #21 for them to fall short but they can go into deficit which wont be much
Bid for need will come 25-40 imo

Port don’t have the list spots to take all those picks. They’re taking 52, 55 and 66 to the draft and losing the last two picks.

 

[briztoon]

So am I right in saying the league will allow a team to do a pick swap to match a bid on a player tied to them?

ie: if a player gets bid on at 22 and the clubs next pick is 26 can they trade out 26 (after the bid has been placed) for 2 later picks of enough value to still land that player (and then maybe get some residual value at the end of the draft?

I’m hoping the Pies might try and package 35 and 48 together (equivalent pick 23) to get into the 20s. This would only work if we could do the above.


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As has been said, all the clubs with academy or father son kids have already traded out their second round picks in the pick trade period.

 

[briztoon]

I'm not a fan of us trading our 2020 first (because we aint that good) but in principle your idea is fine but you'd need to give us enough points to completely cover Henry's bid at the very least. In fact, you'd have to give us a better deal than the automatic downgrading of our first next year because of the deficit.

From memory our pick 29 (will be pick 30 after GWS match the Green bid) will cover any bid made from pick 13 or later.

 

[raffrox]

I'm not a fan of us trading our 2020 first (because we aint that good) but in principle your idea is fine but you'd need to give us enough points to completely cover Henry's bid at the very least. In fact, you'd have to give us a better deal than the automatic downgrading of our first next year because of the deficit.

So you'd trade what could be 13 + 34 for 7 + 58?

This year it's costing high seconds or low firsts to move two spots higher in the first round. We would get zero point benefit overall for that deal.

It would be a panic move to basically dump our first rounder in a deal like that.

 

[TryAnHit]

So you'd trade what could be 13 + 34 for 7 + 58?

This year it's costing high seconds or low firsts to move two spots higher in the first round. We would get zero point benefit overall for that deal.

It would be a panic move to basically dump our first rounder in a deal like that.

Teams only paying that much to move because of the accademy picks and getting ahead. No other team would pay that much to move 2 spots

 

[raffrox]

Teams only paying that much to move because of the accademy picks and getting ahead. No other team would pay that much to move 2 spots

Exactly. So this time next year if a team is trying to do the same and get in front of a team to defuse a academy pick bid it makes sense that our first might be worth a bit.

 

[briztoon]

So you'd trade what could be 13 + 34 for 7 + 58?

This year it's costing high seconds or low firsts to move two spots higher in the first round. We would get zero point benefit overall for that deal.

It would be a panic move to basically dump our first rounder in a deal like that.

Yes the trade is basically paying your debt this year.

If you carry the debt in to next year, and finish around pick 5, you’ll basically be sliding back to around 11 anyway.

The trade I offered gives you a further opportunity.

It allows you to trade back in to the draft if you find a taker. Especially if you have a young WA player in the second round in mind.

You have to split the trades, because the debt comes off the first pick you trade in.

It’s no good trading in late teens or early 20’s pick, only to see it down graded to the 30’s because you had to pay the debt off with a significant portion of the points from that pick. Unless you believe a player you want will be available then.

Teams are also reluctant to trade for future picks, because they’ll be downgraded much further next year due to the sheer volume of academy kids spread through next years draft.

Exactly. So this time next year if a team is trying to do the same and get in front of a team to defuse a academy pick bid it makes sense that our first might be worth a bit.

By my calculations you’ll have 526 points in this years draft to contribute to paying off the bid on Henry.

It’s not in teams interests to necessarily trade you the points to pay off the debt. Especially for teams that might miss finals next year. If you carry the maximum possible debt, 590 points, in to next year, that will see you drop from pick 5 to pick 11. So 5 teams will move up one spot each as you move back.

The better your future finishing position, the further back your pick will slide, as the points gap between picks lessens.

And you won’t be trading pick 5 to teams looking to move up. It will be 11, or where ever your first pick lands after paying off the debt.

The debt is applied at the end of next season, before the trade period.

Then you need a team willing to trade up for your pick 11, that has a kid rated in the 13 to 18 range, that either has a pick in that range or early in the second round.

So a finals team, or bottom of the ladder team.

So you might be trading pick 11 for pick 16 and a future first round pick from of a finals team. Another pick 16.

Or you’re trading to a team that finished low on the ladder, for their second round pick, and their future first round pick. Pick 22 and a future early first round pick for pick 11 doesn’t sound like a fair trade.


You’re future first round pick has a higher value this year, before a points deficit is applied to it. And next years academy bids start pushing it back.

But you really need 15 and 20 from Gold Coast in the one trade, or split the trade some how.

 

[raffrox]

Yes the trade is basically paying your debt this year.

If you carry the debt in to next year, and finish around pick 5, you’ll basically be sliding back to around 11 anyway.

The trade I offered gives you a further opportunity.

It allows you to trade back in to the draft if you find a taker. Especially if you have a young WA player in the second round in mind.

You have to split the trades, because the debt comes off the first pick you trade in.

It’s no good trading in late teens or early 20’s pick, only to see it down graded to the 30’s because you had to pay the debt off with a significant portion of the points from that pick. Unless you believe a player you want will be available then.

Teams are also reluctant to trade for future picks, because they’ll be downgraded much further next year due to the sheer volume of academy kids spread through next years draft.


By my calculations you’ll have 526 points in this years draft to contribute to paying off the bid on Henry.

It’s not in teams interests to necessarily trade you the points to pay off the debt. Especially for teams that might miss finals next year. If you carry the maximum possible debt, 590 points, in to next year, that will see you drop from pick 5 to pick 11. So 5 teams will move up one spot each as you move back.

The better your future finishing position, the further back your pick will slide, as the points gap between picks lessens.

And you won’t be trading pick 5 to teams looking to move up. It will be 11, or where ever your first pick lands after paying off the debt.

The debt is applied at the end of next season, before the trade period.

Then you need a team willing to trade up for your pick 11, that has a kid rated in the 13 to 18 range, that either has a pick in that range or early in the second round.

So a finals team, or bottom of the ladder team.

So you might be trading pick 11 for pick 16 and a future first round pick from of a finals team. Another pick 16.

Or you’re trading to a team that finished low on the ladder, for their second round pick, and their future first round pick. Pick 22 and a future early first round pick for pick 11 doesn’t sound like a fair trade.


You’re future first round pick has a higher value this year, before a points deficit is applied to it. And next years academy bids start pushing it back.

But you really need 15 and 20 from Gold Coast in the one trade, or split the trade some how.

I understand all of that but you're reading the situation too much in your teams favour.

I had Melbourne people say that it'd take our 2020 1st to get pick 8. In the end it didn't.

Is there anything stopping us trading one of our 2020 seconds for a pick to cover the deficit in the 5 minute period we're given on draft day when a bid for Henry comes? I'd suggest we've got an option or two ready to go for draft day.

Then we have no deficit next year and keep our first.

Thats more likely than us dumping a likely 2020 top 10 pick for not much.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Surprised no one has come for our future first rounder. Compromised draft or not I think they have a good chance at a top 6 pick.

 

[THE_GUN]

Port don’t have the list spots to take all those picks. They’re taking 52, 55 and 66 to the draft and losing the last two picks.

What you dont understand is all these selections have points attached to them and they are allowed to use to the points to match the bid for nead and will use the remaining to fill list spots.

 

[THE_GUN]

Do Port have the list spots to head into the draft with all these picks?

Looking at Freo for eg. they have 5 list spots so 79 and 83 and goneski. Meaning other clubs with picks 84 onwards will move at least 2spors forward.

At last review Port only have 6 list spots available so would lose picks 67 onwards???

Is that correct or not?

According to this they do have these picks

Indicative draft order: Your club's picks as they stand

Check out the latest indicative draft order as the Telstra AFL Trade and Free Agency periods shape each club's list

www.afl.com.au

 

[Clems Knee]

According to this they do have these picks

Indicative draft order: Your club's picks as they stand

Check out the latest indicative draft order as the Telstra AFL Trade and Free Agency periods shape each club's list

www.afl.com.au

I think the AFL remove the extra picks (that clubs don’t have the list room for) on Monday.

 

[THE_GUN]

I think the AFL remove the extra picks (that clubs don’t have the list room for) on Monday.

According to the PA website they have 32 senior players so they will have 8 picks available to them
12,16,18,52,55,66,67,68 they also have 72 & 86 on the list

Im thinking the last 2 will get dropped off if they dont use the picks to match but if they do then they will still get them to use if the choose to as they can have 40 on the senior list

 

[perplexed]

According to the PA website they have 32 senior players so they will have 8 picks available to them
12,16,18,52,55,66,67,68 they also have 72 & 86 on the list

Im thinking the last 2 will get dropped off if they dont use the picks to match but if they do then they will still get them to use if the choose to as they can have 40 on the senior list

They've only got 6 spots two of which will be rookie upgrades. 67 & 68 will go.
They should have been able to trade 52 & 55 to someone for a future second. Seems lazy.

 

[Gunf]

They've only got 6 spots two of which will be rookie upgrades. 67 & 68 will go.
They should have been able to trade 52 & 55 to someone for a future second. Seems lazy.

You never know maybe the AFL changed its rules again without telling anyone.... Would that really shock anyone

 

[briztoon]

I understand all of that but you're reading the situation too much in your teams favour.

I had Melbourne people say that it'd take our 2020 1st to get pick 8. In the end it didn't.

Is there anything stopping us trading one of our 2020 seconds for a pick to cover the deficit in the 5 minute period we're given on draft day when a bid for Henry comes? I'd suggest we've got an option or two ready to go for draft day.

Then we have no deficit next year and keep our first.

Thats more likely than us dumping a likely 2020 top 10 pick for not much.

My post wasn’t really discussing the previous trade offer I suggested. It was more looking at the situation as a whole.

I’m pretty sure teams won’t value future second round picks highly at all.

Next years draft, we’re potentially looking at 5 academy bids in the first round, plus GC’s PP at 11, and another early bids in the second round for FS and academy kids.

It’s quite conceivable that the 5th pick in the second round is pushed back 7 or 8 spots.

And that’s not even factoring in possible compensation picks from next years trade period. Especially if a Crouch brother up and leaves an a big contract.

 

[Peel67skin]

According to the PA website they have 32 senior players so they will have 8 picks available to them
12,16,18,52,55,66,67,68 they also have 72 & 86 on the list

Im thinking the last 2 will get dropped off if they dont use the picks to match but if they do then they will still get them to use if the choose to as they can have 40 on the senior list

You are spot on. 72 and 86 won't have any value in it, as for 67 and 68 they can always upgrade their rookie players after the draft, instead of upgrading them now. ( presume all of them only on rookie list less than 2 years)