1. Richmond
Best team in the minor round last year. Got ambushed by Collingwood in Richmond's 'home' prelim, with Cotchin and Martin both not right.
Then added Tom Lynch, one of the top few key forwards in the league.
2. Melbourne
Incredible midfield.
Then added Steven May, one of the top few key defenders in the league. He adds the solidity to their backline they were missing.
If they can maintain focus they will be hard to beat.
3. Adelaide
We play a high skill high mental focus precision kicking game. Every player on the ground needs to be fully focused at all times to know exactly where to go & when.
When we are in control we will look unbeatable. Then some team with more pure talent in the midfield will bulldoze us for 7 goals in 20 minutes, and we won't be able to stack the backline from centre bounces to stop it.
The only team I can remember successfully executing the high skill kicking game as well in finals as they did in the minor round is Hawthorn. (4 times.) They had the luxury of playing at their home ground vs non-Melbourne teams in every GF which is as comfortable as a GF gets.
Most often the team with the more straightforward longer kicking game and more run wins. Most likely we will fall over when it counts like we always do.
Will still play lots of good footy and some exciting kids.
4. Geelong
I thought the Cats were reasonably good last year.
They should be better this year
- Danger: fully fit
- Dahlhaus: a pretty good player who fits a need, who will be delighted to have escaped Crazy Bevo
- Ablett: possibly the greatest player of all time, will win games off his own boot from the goalkicking forward role
Should get back to their 2016-2017 levels.
5. Hawthorn
Well coached and have stars across the field. Wingard will make a big difference to their forward line with his pressure, ability to win contests and skills.
Think the loss of Mitchell together with 6-6-6 might have tipped the balance away from this type of team and towards a team with more pure talent in the centre square.
Mitchell back next year + one more star trade/free agent and they will be contenders again. The AFL, where rich Melbourne teams can rebuild by trading in players from less rich non-Melbourne teams.
6. GWS
So many injuries every year. Average coach. Potentially Coniglio on the way out as a free agent.
Amazing to think they might have blown all that talent on mediocre coaching, and pushing players to play when injured causing more injuries.
7. West Coast
Their midfield wasn't particularly good last year, other than an out-of-character dominant finals month.
Their ball movement depends on marks from Kennedy and Darling, and Kennedy is getting older and has had injury question marks.
I can see them falling back to the pack a bit.
8. Collingwood
The anecdotal evidence is in. Losing grand finalists have a bit of a meltdown the next year. It must be soul destroying.
Injury problems over pre season.
I reckon they end up like West Coast in 2017, some good wins, end up in finals, but it never really comes together.
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9. Essendon
They don't have Neeld anymore, which means they don't have the ability to fire him for a mid-season boost.
Daniher more injuries.
They still don't have one contested animal midfielder.
I think they play some great football at times, but might get bulldozed by teams with more powerful midfields, and don't have the coaching acumen to build a gameplan to compensate.
10. Brisbane
On the way up.
Prediction: they will be hated for anti-social football like early Clarko Hawks. Once they are really good, we will realise we want them to go back to being bad again please, but it will be too late.
11. Sydney
They have a lot of young players, many in important roles. Their stars are thinning and aging.
Can Josh Kennedy and Buddy Franklin dominate the league again? I am not sure. They will dominate some matches but perhaps not consistently enough. Ryan Clarke will be useful.
One or two years out of the eight while still being competitive, one or two trade / free agency signings, and they will be back amongst it.
12. North Melbourne
Big money big Melbourne teams can rebuild through trades and free agency. Small Melbourne teams need to use the draft just like non-Victorian teams do.
North Melbourne seem to think they are one of the big money teams. They persist with this even as their free agency targets and trade targets turn them down every year, and for the most part they are left with Aaron Hall and Jaspar Pittard types.
LDU their one early pick recently and he has not exactly taken the league by storm.
Not sure how they expect to turn their current list into a premiership list this way.
13. Port Adelaide
In a weird place with a few really good old players like Gray and Ryder and Westhoff, Dixon, a few new young talents, and a big gap in the middle.
Marshall I reckon is one of the most exciting young key forwards in the league. Hope he has a break-out year and kicks 40 goals like Warren Tredrea in 1999.
If Gray and Ryder go on for another 3-4 years, and Marshall and new draftees fire, then they could be competitive for a few years. Or Gray and Ryder get injured, and Port will be in the bottom four.
Riley Bonner is the new Jaspar Pittard.
14. St Kilda
Nice mature list of decent players, just lack a couple of stars. Not a big club so they won't get those stars in trade / free agency. Too good to get top 3 picks, and not good enough at drafting to get stars from later picks.
Well intentioned, hard working, low IQ. Will work and pressure their way to wins over dysfunctional misfits, and over some good teams. Hard to see them consistently beating top teams. Could easily reproduce their 2017 where they won about 11 games.
15. Bulldogs
I get that they have rebuilt the list since their premiership. But I don't get why so many of the young players who seemed so promising haven't really pushed on. Dahlhaus gone. Libba and Wallis have had their struggles. Bont hasn't quite stepped up to the top-5 player in the league which looked likely from his first couple of seasons.
Still very young and look a bit dysfunctional.
16. Fremantle
Jesse Hogan wanted in. Lachie Neale wanted out.
Have drafted lots of young talent, but not sure they have the senior leaders and culture to make the most of it.
One Nat Fyfe injury away from being really awful.
17. Carlton
If the likes of SPS and Weitering are to become stars, they should start winning games for their team this year. I think they will win some games.
I think they might be a better team than Fremantle, but Fremantle will get some Fyfe-powered ambush wins at home.
18. Gold Coast
They were as bad as Carlton were last year. They had a percentage of 59.
Now without their two best players.
GWS in season one had a percentage 46, and in season two it was 50. Gold Coast might be that bad. Except without the model professional leaders the Giants recruited which pulled them out of that tier by season three.
How long until the AFL reassigns some good citizen from our club to sort out that organisation, and then we realise that citizen wasn't as bad as we thought they were while they were with us.
Best team in the minor round last year. Got ambushed by Collingwood in Richmond's 'home' prelim, with Cotchin and Martin both not right.
Then added Tom Lynch, one of the top few key forwards in the league.
2. Melbourne
Incredible midfield.
Then added Steven May, one of the top few key defenders in the league. He adds the solidity to their backline they were missing.
If they can maintain focus they will be hard to beat.
3. Adelaide
We play a high skill high mental focus precision kicking game. Every player on the ground needs to be fully focused at all times to know exactly where to go & when.
When we are in control we will look unbeatable. Then some team with more pure talent in the midfield will bulldoze us for 7 goals in 20 minutes, and we won't be able to stack the backline from centre bounces to stop it.
The only team I can remember successfully executing the high skill kicking game as well in finals as they did in the minor round is Hawthorn. (4 times.) They had the luxury of playing at their home ground vs non-Melbourne teams in every GF which is as comfortable as a GF gets.
Most often the team with the more straightforward longer kicking game and more run wins. Most likely we will fall over when it counts like we always do.
Will still play lots of good footy and some exciting kids.
4. Geelong
I thought the Cats were reasonably good last year.
They should be better this year
- Danger: fully fit
- Dahlhaus: a pretty good player who fits a need, who will be delighted to have escaped Crazy Bevo
- Ablett: possibly the greatest player of all time, will win games off his own boot from the goalkicking forward role
Should get back to their 2016-2017 levels.
5. Hawthorn
Well coached and have stars across the field. Wingard will make a big difference to their forward line with his pressure, ability to win contests and skills.
Think the loss of Mitchell together with 6-6-6 might have tipped the balance away from this type of team and towards a team with more pure talent in the centre square.
Mitchell back next year + one more star trade/free agent and they will be contenders again. The AFL, where rich Melbourne teams can rebuild by trading in players from less rich non-Melbourne teams.
6. GWS
So many injuries every year. Average coach. Potentially Coniglio on the way out as a free agent.
Amazing to think they might have blown all that talent on mediocre coaching, and pushing players to play when injured causing more injuries.
7. West Coast
Their midfield wasn't particularly good last year, other than an out-of-character dominant finals month.
Their ball movement depends on marks from Kennedy and Darling, and Kennedy is getting older and has had injury question marks.
I can see them falling back to the pack a bit.
8. Collingwood
The anecdotal evidence is in. Losing grand finalists have a bit of a meltdown the next year. It must be soul destroying.
Injury problems over pre season.
I reckon they end up like West Coast in 2017, some good wins, end up in finals, but it never really comes together.
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9. Essendon
They don't have Neeld anymore, which means they don't have the ability to fire him for a mid-season boost.
Daniher more injuries.
They still don't have one contested animal midfielder.
I think they play some great football at times, but might get bulldozed by teams with more powerful midfields, and don't have the coaching acumen to build a gameplan to compensate.
10. Brisbane
On the way up.
Prediction: they will be hated for anti-social football like early Clarko Hawks. Once they are really good, we will realise we want them to go back to being bad again please, but it will be too late.
11. Sydney
They have a lot of young players, many in important roles. Their stars are thinning and aging.
Can Josh Kennedy and Buddy Franklin dominate the league again? I am not sure. They will dominate some matches but perhaps not consistently enough. Ryan Clarke will be useful.
One or two years out of the eight while still being competitive, one or two trade / free agency signings, and they will be back amongst it.
12. North Melbourne
Big money big Melbourne teams can rebuild through trades and free agency. Small Melbourne teams need to use the draft just like non-Victorian teams do.
North Melbourne seem to think they are one of the big money teams. They persist with this even as their free agency targets and trade targets turn them down every year, and for the most part they are left with Aaron Hall and Jaspar Pittard types.
LDU their one early pick recently and he has not exactly taken the league by storm.
Not sure how they expect to turn their current list into a premiership list this way.
13. Port Adelaide
In a weird place with a few really good old players like Gray and Ryder and Westhoff, Dixon, a few new young talents, and a big gap in the middle.
Marshall I reckon is one of the most exciting young key forwards in the league. Hope he has a break-out year and kicks 40 goals like Warren Tredrea in 1999.
If Gray and Ryder go on for another 3-4 years, and Marshall and new draftees fire, then they could be competitive for a few years. Or Gray and Ryder get injured, and Port will be in the bottom four.
Riley Bonner is the new Jaspar Pittard.
14. St Kilda
Nice mature list of decent players, just lack a couple of stars. Not a big club so they won't get those stars in trade / free agency. Too good to get top 3 picks, and not good enough at drafting to get stars from later picks.
Well intentioned, hard working, low IQ. Will work and pressure their way to wins over dysfunctional misfits, and over some good teams. Hard to see them consistently beating top teams. Could easily reproduce their 2017 where they won about 11 games.
15. Bulldogs
I get that they have rebuilt the list since their premiership. But I don't get why so many of the young players who seemed so promising haven't really pushed on. Dahlhaus gone. Libba and Wallis have had their struggles. Bont hasn't quite stepped up to the top-5 player in the league which looked likely from his first couple of seasons.
Still very young and look a bit dysfunctional.
16. Fremantle
Jesse Hogan wanted in. Lachie Neale wanted out.
Have drafted lots of young talent, but not sure they have the senior leaders and culture to make the most of it.
One Nat Fyfe injury away from being really awful.
17. Carlton
If the likes of SPS and Weitering are to become stars, they should start winning games for their team this year. I think they will win some games.
I think they might be a better team than Fremantle, but Fremantle will get some Fyfe-powered ambush wins at home.
18. Gold Coast
They were as bad as Carlton were last year. They had a percentage of 59.
Now without their two best players.
GWS in season one had a percentage 46, and in season two it was 50. Gold Coast might be that bad. Except without the model professional leaders the Giants recruited which pulled them out of that tier by season three.
How long until the AFL reassigns some good citizen from our club to sort out that organisation, and then we realise that citizen wasn't as bad as we thought they were while they were with us.
