Prediction Premiership Window

[baldandbroke]

That’s really a silly, arbitrary comment with no basis in fact or reality. I don’t want us to be flying by Round 10, I want us to be flying in September.

I didn't say that at all. I said we'll know by round 10 if we have improved or not ... we won't know anything about ourselves until we face a variety of teams at a variety of venues. The same applies to the other teams.

Round 10 usually has enough data that you can make a judgement on where your club sits. Historically, not too many changes to the ladder happen after that (from memory 6 of the top 8 at round 10 make the finals?)

 

[kulak]

I didn't say that at all. I said we'll know by round 10 if we have improved or not ... we won't know anything about ourselves until we face a variety of teams at a variety of venues. The same applies to the other teams.

Round 10 usually has enough data that you can make a judgement on where your club sits. Historically, not too many changes to the ladder happen after that (from memory 6 of the top 8 at round 10 make the finals?)

I guess I am taking top 8 for granted, and perhaps even top 4. You are right in that if we are sitting 9th then it is highly unlikely we will make a challenge.

The improvement I am looking to see is more about process than wins/losses.

Things I will be looking for that will matter on GF day:
- can Sloane maintain his effort when tagged and things not going his way?
- can Milera become our defensive rebounder?
- can M Crouch step into win the contested possessions his brother did last year, and release uncontested possessions to Gibbs
- can Greenwood get and stay fit
- can JJ compete, and if not, can we replace him with someone who does

If we are flying at 8-2 with some cruise wins over average teams and none of those things have been demonstrated, then colour me concerned.

 

[SugarShane]

Missed our chance. It's bloody hard to make a GF. We got there and blew it. We're not on the level of previous teams who've made successive GFs. We'll be at the pointy end but won't be a serious threat.

 

[PCORF]

Missed our chance. It's bloody hard to make a GF. We got there and blew it. We're not on the level of previous teams who've made successive GFs. We'll be at the pointy end but won't be a serious threat.

Yep quite possibly indeed.

First step is winning enough home and away games to finish in a good position on the ladder and get the double chance, second step is the finals. There is no room for error this season. I can almost guarantee that every team in the AFL including us will play at least one bad game this season.

 

[Thegibbsgamble]

That was as bad as grandfinal losses come for sides who were in a class of thier own all season


We won't stagnate. Well either win the flag or slowly drop away over the next few years

 

[GreyCrow]

 

[Crow54]

And it is self-inflicted!

 

[JPetro83]

Window is bolted shut for another decade... just as it was after 06. we have blown two cycles now! 05/06 and now 16/17
This club does nothing but let their fans down.

 

[PCORF]

Window is bolted shut for another decade... just as it was after 06. we have blown two cycles now! 05/06 and now 16/17
This club does nothing but let their fans down.

Exactly. Agree with you 100%.

We were a better team in 2005 as well.

I'm proud they booed them at halftime vs the Pies last week, a good way to let them know their frustration. Right now Adelaide are just not enjoying playing the game, simple as that. Got to use that as motivation, we need wins badly, if we win 6 of the next 8 we're a chance to get a good finish on the ladder at the end of the season.

 

[Cap]

I don't believe in the window.

But i don't think this year will be a waste unless we're miss finals.

I can't see why next year couldn't be another serious tilt if we get a good run with injuries.

 

[Murray2503]

Is hawthorn still in the window? If they are it has been a 10 year window. Well run clubs have a window of excellence. Poor run clubs have a window of disappointment. The crows are one of those. Time to change the narrative.

 

[SugarShane]

Right now Adelaide are just not enjoying playing the game, simple as that. Got to use that as motivation, we need wins badly, if we win 6 of the next 8 we're a chance to get a good finish on the ladder at the end of the season.

The Crows are playing like they feel how I feel. We blew our chance. All that hard work and leading the league for the whole year and we have nothing to show for it. Players leaving nearly every year. They're playing like "Why bother?" It's ok for us fans to feel like that every now and then, but these guys are professionals. This is their job. They're getting paid 6 figures to get up for games. They need to find the motivation.

We're rocking up every week after working 40 hours, paying premium prices for tickets, $10 for a shitty cheeseburger and $9 for a beer, if we want to feel unmotivated to watch a Crows game we're allowed to.

If these guys need more motivation than last September's embarrassment then they need to move on to something else.

 

[JPetro83]

Exactly. Agree with you 100%.

We were a better team in 2005 as well.

I'm proud they booed them at halftime vs the Pies last week, a good way to let them know their frustration. Right now Adelaide are just not enjoying playing the game, simple as that. Got to use that as motivation, we need wins badly, if we win 6 of the next 8 we're a chance to get a good finish on the ladder at the end of the season.

As a fan its tough to get motivated and excited.. it was a slog last year and emotionally draining to get so close and not win that premiership.
without a top 4 finish forget it. we will be 2-3 after this week.. we had only lost 4 games up until round 21 last year. look at the fixture and the way we are playing and the injuries, wewill struggle to win 12 or 13 games... might scrape into 7th or 8th but whats the point?
So frustrating!
2005/06 was a joke.. to finish top 2 both years and not even make the GF so embarrasses me as a crows fan. this club since 2000 has been mediocre.. so close so many times yet so far. Should have 4 or 5 premierships. nothing but let us down.

 

[PasswordisTaco]

As a fan its tough to get motivated and excited.. it was a slog last year and emotionally draining to get so close and not win that premiership.
without a top 4 finish forget it. we will be 2-3 after this week.. we had only lost 4 games up until round 21 last year. look at the fixture and the way we are playing and the injuries, wewill struggle to win 12 or 13 games... might scrape into 7th or 8th but whats the point?
So frustrating!
2005/06 was a joke.. to finish top 2 both years and not even make the GF so embarrasses me as a crows fan. this club since 2000 has been mediocre.. so close so many times yet so far. Should have 4 or 5 premierships. nothing but let us down.

Do you get off on having a ****ing whinge or something? Do you get paid per whinge? I swear it's literally all I've ever seen you post on BF or on the pride forum before you were booted.

 

[Thegibbsgamble]

3 more seasons

 

[Golumless]

Is hawthorn still in the window? If they are it has been a 10 year window. Well run clubs have a window of excellence. Poor run clubs have a window of disappointment. The crows are one of those. Time to change the narrative.

Nah, Hawthorn fell out of contention/window two years ago.

I wouldn't say they're a premiership (or even a top 4) threat this season either. Collingwood, and Melbourne aren't good sides, and Geelong are a side who are very lucky that this period is a weak one.

 

[JPetro83]

Do you get off on having a ****ing whinge or something? Do you get paid per whinge? I swear it's literally all I've ever seen you post on BF or on the pride forum before you were booted.

whats there not be whinging about? we suck! and haven't won a flag in 20 years. i never got booted from the pride fb forum? i left, i couldn't handle fans like you! that no matter how bad we are going people cant hand the truth about the team and players.. "stop picking on the team" stop picking on so and so" " you're not a real supporter cos you bag players" etc. And i couldn't have been booted from here cos i am still here :/
take off your crows coloured glasses mate.

 

[relapse]

Sadly we didn't just blow it in 2017 either, in 2016 we didn't bother to turn up against West Coast which cost us a top 2 finish and potentially a GF berth.

Will we get a third chance? I don't know.

All I know is that if we don't take our chances this year we definitely won't be getting a fourth chance at it.

 

[dogs105]

whats there not be whinging about? we suck! and haven't won a flag in 20 years. i never got booted from the pride fb forum? i left, i couldn't handle fans like you! that no matter how bad we are going people cant hand the truth about the team and players.. "stop picking on the team" stop picking on so and so" " you're not a real supporter cos you bag players" etc. And i couldn't have been booted from here cos i am still here :/
take off your crows coloured glasses mate.

Doedee Doedee Doedee

 

[JPetro83]

No Jase, you left because every time you posted something everyone ripped the piss out of you because you're a pathetic whinging sook who only ever dribbles shit, even after games we won you would put a post up having a cry because player a handballed to player b instead of player c. You're so bad that I knew who you were instantly the first time I saw you post here. Opinion of you would be different if you were varied in your opinions but all you do is ****ing complain, you're 'not a real supporter' because you never ever actually support the club.

Who the *** is Tyrone?

Sadly we didn't just blow it in 2017 either, in 2016 we didn't bother to turn up against West Coast which cost us a top 2 finish and potentially a GF berth.

Will we get a third chance? I don't know.

All I know is that if we don't take our chances this year we definitely won't be getting a fourth chance at it.

Yeah 2016.. that home loss to the WCE was huge.. just another huge chance that we have blown the past 10-15 years.... its only round 5 and we are already going to be 3 losses on the board.. we lost 6 games last year and to get top 4 you cant be losing more than 6 or 7 games. we are going to have to play a near perfect 2nd half of the season to get near the top 4. right now that looks impossible with form and injuries.

 

[relapse]

Yeah 2016.. that home loss to the WCE was huge.. just another huge chance that we have blown the past 10-15 years.... its only round 5 and we are already going to be 3 losses on the board.. we lost 6 games last year and to get top 4 you cant be losing more than 6 or 7 games. we are going to have to play a near perfect 2nd half of the season to get near the top 4. right now that looks impossible with form and injuries.

Even though we have a reasonable draw this year, I think top 2 is most probably already gone.

After tonight (which I have already written off as a loss) we have five other tough fixtures (GWS, Hawthorn and Richmond away and both showdowns), but other than that the other 12 games are all very winnable.

I think top 4 is definitely still very much in play for us provided that we can get our shit together.