Analysis Pressure Acts Spreadsheet

[blackcat]

I am worried about Dusty's output. Being a one way player while you're a leader for the club isn't a good look. That said he's scored back-to-back 21s so maybe he's just warming up.

#opportunitycost

Defensive roles and #pressureacts may be quasi zero-sum as the ball gets turned over and goes the other way then you switch ur lens and 18-on-the-park compile #offensiveacts[sic/ *I h8 seppo idiom and weasel words like 'offensive acts']

The grunts do the grunt-work hence they are called grunts qua grunt. It ain't the third and fourth quarter that Dusty needs to win games, it is round 18 onwards. He went deep last year... so hopefully he has choreographed training>form arc so he ramps it up in the final third of the season leading into finals.

I think the key metric on pressure-acts needs to be a meta: #failedpessureact where FPA comes under Dimma's definition of the FPA. Cos Dusty needs to be attacking and win the games in the third quarter of round18. He can't be burnt out. He needs to measure his efforts over individual quarters/individual games/season/finals

 

[sante]

Dusty has definitely improved his defensive efforts last couple weeks

 

[RunningBounce]

Year to year comparison

Nim, that's a very generous contribution. Great to see the year to year comparison. Thank you.

I'd suggest that a change of plus or minus 10% probably isn't meaningful. I think we can interpret that level of difference as no difference at all. Just noise in the numbers while the on-field performance is about the same.

And if we accept that, then we can say that the vast majority of the team is matching their 2017 performance, or improving. I count only 6 from 29 that have had a meaningful deterioration.

Dusty - is he carrying an injury? Just less interested now he has won everything? Was never a great defensive player. I've used the word "liability" in the past, much to my own embarrassment now. I heard Nick and Andy on the Talking Tigers podcast discussing whether his attacking output was linked to his defensive output. Some players have a better attacking game while their not defending, or a better defensive game when they aren't getting the ball. They were discussing if maybe Dusty's defense gets better when his more involved in attack as well. Seems about right to me.

 

[blackcat]

Some players have a better attacking game while their not defending, or a better defensive game when they aren't getting the ball. They were discussing if maybe Dusty's defense gets better when his more involved in attack as well. Seems about right to me.

that is a narrow aperture, taking individual game in isolation. Extrapolate your analysis to 18months, and give Dusty til the end of regular season + finals to bring-his-form-to-the-boil

 

[HTT]

2017 season averages

Year to year comparison

Conca's obviously a huge bump, but i'd imagine it's moe to do with his role change from backman to midfielder more than anything. George, Cotch and Cads show big bumps in the key pressure roles. Grigg, Lambert, Edwards and Dusty all with vary degrees of drops. Still decent years from the first three though. I am worried about Dusty's output. Being a one way player while you're a leader for the club isn't a good look. That said he's scored back-to-back 21s so maybe he's just warming up.

Hopefully. When he chooses to tackle someone he bloody makes sure he tackles them!

 

[NimFromSudan]

Nim, that's a very generous contribution. Great to see the year to year comparison. Thank you.

I'd suggest that a change of plus or minus 10% probably isn't meaningful. I think we can interpret that level of difference as no difference at all. Just noise in the numbers while the on-field performance is about the same.

NO trouble at all. And yes, short of doing an actual regression I'd imagine that 10% or so leeway isn't too significant.

 

[NimFromSudan]

Round 16

Season

FMD Dusty got a gold. Brought his average up nearly two points too. What a game and he was barely sighted in the first half. Meanwhile Graham's injury makes his appear human or the time being. Nank jumps top ten and Higgo's midfield time helps him go past Castagna.

 

[Michaels]

Round 16

Season

FMD Dusty got a gold. Brought his average up nearly two points too. What a game and he was barely sighted in the first half. Meanwhile Graham's injury makes his appear human or the time being. Nank jumps top ten and Higgo's midfield time helps him go past Castagna.

Dusty getting the highest is impressive.

I was pretty critical of his game at half time from an offensive point of view, but clearly he was too busy doing all the hard defensive things instead!

 

[GastevsBeard]

will be interesting to see how much Graham's absence impacts the side - he has been the pressure machine

 

[JR82]

will be interesting to see how much Graham's absence impacts the side - he has been the pressure machine

Big loss but i do think we'll be alright still, like when Prestia missed we were ok but clearly better when both are in.

 

[RunningBounce]

Reckon that was Dusty's best game with the ball for a while. i'm counting it as evidence that when he gets involved defensively, he gets more involved in attack as well.

 

[pebblestone]

#opportunitycost

Defensive roles and #pressureacts may be quasi zero-sum as the ball gets turned over and goes the other way then you switch ur lens and 18-on-the-park compile #offensiveacts[sic/ *I h8 seppo idiom and weasel words like 'offensive acts']

The grunts do the grunt-work hence they are called grunts qua grunt. It ain't the third and fourth quarter that Dusty needs to win games, it is round 18 onwards. He went deep last year... so hopefully he has choreographed training>form arc so he ramps it up in the final third of the season leading into finals.

I think the key metric on pressure-acts needs to be a meta: #failedpessureact where FPA comes under Dimma's definition of the FPA. Cos Dusty needs to be attacking and win the games in the third quarter of round18. He can't be burnt out. He needs to measure his efforts over individual quarters/individual games/season/finals

Do u also h8 seppo weasel words like "ain't"?

 

[NimFromSudan]

Round 17

Season

Game totals

What a stinker. Only 6 players above 15. Epitomised by Cotch's lowest tally for the season. Medals to Prestia, Grigg and Corey.

 

[Michaels]

Round 17

Season

Game totals

What a stinker. Only 6 players above 15. Epitomised by Cotch's lowest tally for the season. Medals to Prestia, Grigg and Corey.

love your work!

so do we take it as a positive that we only lost by 2 points with our 3rd worst pressure game for the season and one of our most inaccurate goal kicking games for the year as well?

 

[NimFromSudan]

love your work!

so do we take it as a positive that we only lost by 2 points with our 3rd worst pressure game for the season and one of our most inaccurate goal kicking games for the year as well?

To be honest I don't know know how much I'd read in to the total team acts. Now that I think about it a team's ability to pressure does have a lot to do with relative possession numbers. It's telling for instance that two of our top 5 games were games we lost. There's probably a couple of different factors at play too.

My take on it is that a slight increase in pressure and we might have been able to win, so really it makes me more upset, not less. Promising losses don't exist for a team on the top of the ladder. That's a 90s and 00s Tigers approach.

 

[tunksy]

love your work!

so do we take it as a positive that we only lost by 2 points with our 3rd worst pressure game for the season and one of our most inaccurate goal kicking games for the year as well?

i dont think we should take it as a positive. theres some genuine reasons why it was so low, graham and conca missing and inexperienced kids playing. But I would've liked to have seen us pressure more it the reason they started so well and got easy goals in the third. plenty of players had a stinker. pressure is what wins us games, this was a shocker. hope the players are kicking themselves over a missed opportunity (goal kicking puns intended)

 

[RunningBounce]

Rioli, Bolton and Moore all in the bottom few this week. Did feel a bit like GWS were transitioning out of the backline a bit easily.

 

[GastevsBeard]

I think we are going to feel the absence of both Graham and Conca. Who from the VFL could fill the pressure-void?

 

[NimFromSudan]

I think we are going to feel the absence of both Graham and Conca. Who from the VFL could fill the pressure-void?

Lloyd and Miles can't do it really. If we're talking inside mids that can pressure it's really only Townsend that's left. I probably wouldn't select him myself, but I can see the argument for it.

I'd probably wait a see with the current mix one more week. There's no reason Cotch and Prestia can't carry the load for the next couple 'till Graham's back.

 

[sante]

Corey Ellis right up there, interesting

 

[mopsy]

Lloyd and Miles can't do it really. If we're talking inside mids that can pressure it's really only Townsend that's left. I probably wouldn't select him myself, but I can see the argument for it.

I'd probably wait a see with the current mix one more week. There's no reason Cotch and Prestia can't carry the load for the next couple 'till Graham's back.

disagree with this.
Miles in his one game averaged 17 by your scale he also averages over 4 tackles a game through his career which puts him in the top 4 tacklers at the club.
Theres nothing wrong with Miles pressure on the inside.

He is one of few who has both a high score on your pressure scale and also delivers on the offensive side of things where he is just one of 6 players who has averaged more than 20 disposals a game.
There is just Grigg B Ellis and Houli who are very outside and need to get the ball to make up for their lack of defensive pressure along with Martin whos pressure game is poor and has never been a strong point and Cotch Prestia who does both the defensive and offensive well.
He is also just one of four who averages 10 or more contested balls a game through out his career..
It seems he does both sides of the equation well.

It would be interesting if we could find out what Miles pressure stats are in 14, 15 and 16 before he fell out of favor with the coaching staff.

 

[NimFromSudan]

disagree with this.
Miles in his one game averaged 17 by your scale he also averages over 4 tackles a game through his career which puts him in the top 4 tacklers at the club.
Theres nothing wrong with Miles pressure on the inside.

He is one of few who has both a high score on your pressure scale and also delivers on the offensive side of things where he is just one of 6 players who has averaged more than 20 disposals a game.
There is just Grigg B Ellis and Houli who are very outside and need to get the ball to make up for their lack of defensive pressure along with Martin whos pressure game is poor and has never been a strong point and Cotch Prestia who does both the defensive and offensive well.
He is also just one of four who averages 10 or more contested balls a game through out his career..
It seems he does both sides of the equation well.

It would be interesting if we could find out what Miles pressure stats are in 14, 15 and 16 before he fell out of favor with the coaching staff.

Miles' 17 this year is a one game statistical anomaly. His average over 5 games last year was 14.4. It's true that it's not woeful, but it doesn't measure up to the work done by the Conca/Graham types.

It's a moot point anyway though 'cause he didn't play VFL on the weekend because of his concussion and he's not gonna be brought in after not playing a full match in nearly a month.

 

[Dr Tigris]

CEllis's score might indicate that he did actually play a negating role. Obviously did OK. But then 17 isn't killing it for pressure.

At the game it felt like we were fairly off our pressure, and we stank it up by the numbers. Rioli is usually a star and didn't do much. Similar with Cotch etc. Hope this turns around v Saints. Just terminate them.

 

[DoItForCaptBlood]

Interesting looking at that pressure act sheet and the massive drop in numbers for Dusty, Cotch, Nank, and Rioli. Surely thats the different game style of the opponents. They couldnt get near the GWS players to register the stats.

 

[mopsy]

Reckon that was Dusty's best game with the ball for a while. i'm counting it as evidence that when he gets involved defensively, he gets more involved in attack as well.

how does one say this.
THIS IS A DEFENSIVE ANOMALY .Dusty rarely has big defensive games and if anything it has been area that has required work and still requires work.
The bloke doesnt have many weaknesses but the defensive side of the game is one part where he can significantly improve.
Dusty's defensive game more than offsets his defensive weaknesses.

of all our mids he would have the lowest percentage of tackles a game and hes not big on chasing opponents either. reckon only B Ellis and McIntosh would be behind him in this.

I suppose this will get blown up out of proportion because your not supposed to criticise club champions.