Prediction Projecting our win loss record

[Jiggystoon]

Been having a look at the draw for the remainder of the year and trying to work out what I think our win loss will look like after the home and away.

I came up with 15-7, that's another 4 losses on top of our 3 already, I think we will get turned over by North at Etihad and I think we will struggle against Port, Sydney and West Coast on the road, I give us more then a fighting chance to snatch one or two of those but I reckon the 15-7 is very realistic given where our side is at this year.

What are people's thoughts?

Over the last 4 seasons, a record of 15-7 would have resulted in 5th place, we need to get into that top 4 to have a chance, think it's going to be painfully tight, get there though and look out.


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[Gralin]

As long as the last final we play is a win I don't care

 

[Jiggystoon]

As long as the last final we play is a win I don't care

Agreed but history pretty much unequivocally says that unless your in the top 4 you are going to really struggle to get there


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[Gralin]

Agreed but history pretty much unequivocally says that unless your in the top 4 you are going to really struggle to get there


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True but up until last year history said a Victorian team had never one an interstate Prelim under the current system and also that a team as experienced as Hawthorn had never won the grand final so I'm not too worried about history.

17-5 isn't out of reach though

 

[randall boner]

Agreed but history pretty much unequivocally says that unless your in the top 4 you are going to really struggle to get there


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this is true,though with the rest week before the finals a bolter from the pack may emerge..weeks off can make or break a side especially one with momentum....will be interesting..

 

[Thaihawk]

As long as the last final we play is a win I don't care

Our last game will probably do me.

 

[Happy_Hawker]

15 wins is my prediction,leaving us outside top 4. Week off before finals should help us massively - if there's one team that can win it from outside the top 4,it's the Hawks !

 

[Pessimistic]

Been having a look at the draw for the remainder of the year and trying to work out what I think our win loss will look like after the home and away.

I came up with 15-7, that's another 4 losses on top of our 3 already, I think we will get turned over by North at Etihad and I think we will struggle against Port, Sydney and West Coast on the road, I give us more then a fighting chance to snatch one or two of those but I reckon the 15-7 is very realistic given where our side is at this year.

What are people's thoughts?

Over the last 4 seasons, a record of 15-7 would have resulted in 5th place, we need to get into that top 4 to have a chance, think it's going to be painfully tight, get there though and look out.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It took us about five minutes to swat north in the pre-season, but scotty played the mission accomplished card. so who knows.

taking down eagles and or Sydney means top 4-5 is more likely all Victorian and better for us. Port is the wildcard for us. We have a bye the week before but they have richmond

 

[Gralin]

Our last game will probably do me.

If we make finals sure

 

[Main Man]

I posted this in another thread, a look at our run home.

Essendon - win
North - 50/50 on current form
GC - win
Port - 50/50 - at Adelaide Oval and they seem to trouble us, have found some form of late
Sydney - 40/60 - they are hard to beat up there and on current form they would get us I think
Richmond - win
Carlton - win
Melbourne - win
North - 50/50 on current form
WC - 40/60 - they are a different team at home but also only beaten ordinary teams there so we can definitely win
Pies - win

I would think 14 is the minimum, if we can find some form I think 18-4 is a genuine possibility, realistically I think we will end up between 16 & 17 wins.

If we win North next week we are set up for a top 4 spot, if not every 50/50 game become even more crucial.

I think we will know by the Sydney game whether we are genuine contenders this year or not, if we can win 2 of North, Port, Syd, I think we are up there, if we win 1 or none then making up the numbers.

 

[Teamwork Talks]

Our next 5 games can set up our season.
If we win the 3 hard games against North, Sydney and Port we will likely finish top two.
If we lose them all we likely finish outside top 4.
If we only win 1 of those three we are likely to finish out of top 4.

We need to win at least two of those 3 hard games to finish top 4.

 

[Faithful Hawk]

16-6 for me think we will lose to North(Etihad), Port (AO), WC (Subi), though all could be classified as 50/50 games along with Sydney at the SCG.

 

[Pessimistic]

Nth have geel, Haw, adl (a) wce (a) WB, Haw syd (a) finishing up with GWS giants 3 more tough games than us and two wins plus %ge ahead

Geel have nth, WB, syd (H) = we will never catch them but they wont be as hardened as some come finals time

Syd have GWS (a) WB (H) Geel (a) haw (h) NM (a) similar draw to us but have a game and percentage on us

WB have PtA (A) syd (a) Geel (a) = pretty easy draw

WCE have adel (h) NM (h) carl (a) col (a) GWS (a) haw (h) adel (a) (have included all away games as they aren't a given)

the case im looking at is geel and wb in top four due to easy draw, but one of North or Sydney excluded in favour of us by virtue of us beating them.

its the same old beat a team on the road to avoid playing them in a final. playing three finals not so much a problem for us so long as its the right finals

 

[Pessimistic]

Sydney winning through to a granny seems very likely. In that case play them in a QF 1(syd) v 4 (haw) and if a loss, win easy ef victory then play geel, north or WB in a prelim.

keep barracking for WCE and Syd losses - but if adel beat the eagles twice, they are right in it too

Adel have the eagles twice, NM (h) carl (a) coll (h) geel (a) port

 

[wahawk]

Nth will end up with 14/15 wins imo

 

[bris tarangau]

If the Hawks were playing GWS again in h&a games, I would say a definite loss. All the other teams in top 4 are 50/50. Having said that, I think the Hawks will know better next time and will pleasantly surprise a number of posters.

 

[Pessimistic]

Nth have geel, Haw, adl (a) wce (a) WB, Haw syd (a) finishing up with GWS giants 3 more tough games than us and two wins plus %ge ahead

Geel have nth, WB, syd (H) = we will never catch them but they wont be as hardened as some come finals time

Syd have GWS (a) WB (H) Geel (a) haw (h) NM (a) similar draw to us but have a game and percentage on us

WB have PtA (A) syd (a) Geel (a) = pretty easy draw

WCE have adel (h) NM (h) carl (a) col (a) GWS (a) haw (h) adel (a) (have included all away games as they aren't a given)

the case im looking at is geel and wb in top four due to easy draw, but one of North or Sydney excluded in favour of us by virtue of us beating them.

its the same old beat a team on the road to avoid playing them in a final. playing three finals not so much a problem for us so long as its the right finals

forgot GWS syd (h) PtA (a) WCE (h) NM (a) could catch us up

 

[Gralin]

If the Hawks were playing GWS again in h&a games, I would say a definite loss. All the other teams in top 4 are 50/50. Having said that, I think the Hawks will know better next time and will pleasantly surprise a number of posters.

GWS are not the same on the road, there hasn't been many top 8 teams winning games away against other top 8 teams this year

Crows are 0-3
GWS are 0-3
Cats 1-1
Hawks 1-2
Roos 0-1
Swans 1-1
WC 0-4
Dogs 0-2

That is a combined away total of 3 wins and 17 losses
Eagles have had it the worst and Roos have had is the best as far as away matches against top 8 so far.

Run home away against top 8
Crows 2
GWS 1
Cats 1
Hawks 3
Roos 5
Swans 3
WC 2
Dogs 2

Roos clearly have the hardest run home in that context

Overall away games against TOP 8
Least to most
Hawks, WC and Roos 6
Crows and Swans 5
GWS and Dogs 4
Cats 3

Cats get a dream run to top4 as people have said since the draw was released.

Eagles Hawks and Roos will all have to earn it, WC run home is the easiest, Roos the hardest.

The draw as usual will have a big say on the top 8 but also has a good chance of disguising good and bad form leading into finals.

If we finish top 4 we will have earned it that is for sure

 

[IdiotBox]

It's all going to be rather intriguing! A few key injuries/reports here and there will only add further variables to the vagaries and fortunes of the contending clubs. At this stage I'd rate Port as the only possible outsider to sneak into the 8; but at whose expense?

 

[OnTheRocks]

1 week at a time & then, well immortal history awaits.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

It's all going to be rather intriguing! A few key injuries/reports here and there will only add further variables to the vagaries and fortunes of the contending clubs. At this stage I'd rate Port as the only possible outsider to sneak into the 8; but at whose expense?

I agree but you can't really see any of the current top 8 missing out can you ?

 

[Bad Boy Beama]

The finals will be very interesting this year with the weeks break.

The two top ranked teams who win week one will play once in 3 weeks, which means they may go in under done for the prelim.

If we do finish 5th it could be to our advantage.

 

[threesixpio]

I'm feeling a little bullish recently.

I reckon we will beat Norf and roll on from there. I know I'm being a bit crazy but there you go.

Sydney might be hard though. Port will get rolled.

We beat WC last year at Domain. We will again.

One more loss.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

The finals will be very interesting this year with the weeks break.

The two top ranked teams who win week one will play once in 3 weeks, which means they may go in under done for the prelim.

If we done finish 5th it could be to our advantage.

No you'd still be better off finishing 4th and losing 1st week.

 

[Glenhope]

We need to pick up 300 aggregate points to improve our % before the end of year. That'll improve our chances of a top 4 spot.