Prediction Projecting our win loss record

[Mercy Seat]

ey

 

[MightyHawks]

While 16 wins is really the target... I'm simply looking to the bye

Essendon/North/Gold Coast

We are super hot favourites in two of them obviously so we should be 10-4 or 11-3 after Round 15

However in that 4 weeks we will see the results of:
GWS v Swans
North v Geelong
Dogs v Geelong
Eagles v Crows
Crows v North
Swans v Bulldogs
plus potential upsets

And that means it should be a lot clearer what is likely to be needed to make top 2/4/6/8 and the likelihood of non Vic sides finishing 1st and/or 2nd

History shows teams with 16 wins don't miss out on top 4. Even Squiggle which is predicting pretty much a photo finish from 1st-8th has 5th with only 15 wins

 

[MC_9]

We must win 2 of North x 2 and Port @ AO. That is assuming we will loose to Sydeny @ SCG and WC @ Perth. We also can not drop any unexpected games to lower teams.

That will leave us with 16-6. It is going to be really difficult. Loosing to Geelong and Sydney at the MCG has really hurt us.

 

[TyHawk]

We let go of two big 'Pillar' type games at home already to Cats and Swans!! Both occasions we showed that we were good enough but didn't finish off the games as well as we'd like, so, no more of these failures against Top 8 sides anymore! For those who say we can win it outside the top 4 are delusional, why on earth would the top 4 sides all of a sudden buckle when they've earnt their higher placing above us over 22 rounds?? Off course it could happen but only once and that won't be enough. Forget the premiership if we lose more than 6 games.

Let's say that we don't drop games against lesser opposition then these are the 'Tent-pole' games coming up:

North - I actually think that this is the most important game so far for us. Lose and we have no wiggle room, win and the season and indeed the top 2 opens up for us.

Port - no matter what form port are in, we must 'Mark' this as a final! Cannot keep losing to these impostors.
Syd - beat them and most likely we jump ahead and I honestly think the competition is weak this year if Sydney and North are ladder leaders. Just like same time last year, we need to put them back in their box!

And that's it! The WCE game end of the year shouldn't matter if we win these games.

 

[Pessimistic]

Our game v the west coast aside, where top teams have beaten others, good goalkicking v poor goalkicking has almost always been a feature.

This season is wide open

 

[Xtreme]

I have only 2 more games for the season penciled in as likely wins (GCS and Collingwood}, the rest are 50/50


Up to Hawthorn to make me look silly

Am hoping for the best though!

 

[HODGEYROAD]

I have only 2 more games for the season penciled in as likely wins (GCS and Collingwood}, the rest are 50/50


Up to Hawthorn to make me look silly

Am hoping for the best though!

LOL, your calling Richmond and Carlton 50-50s ?

 

[Xtreme]

LOL, your calling Richmond and Carlton 50-50s ?

On their day Richmond can and have trouble Hawthorn in the past, we barely survived the match earlier this year.

Won't know which version of Carlton (and Hawthorn) will show up until the match itself, right now Carlton can't be brushed off as though it will be an easy win against them....

 

[HODGEYROAD]

On their day Richmond can and have trouble Hawthorn in the past, we barely survived the match earlier this year.

Won't know which version of Carlton (and Hawthorn) will show up until the match itself, right now Carlton can't be brushed off as though it will be an easy win against them....

We beat Richmond by 7 goals minus Mitchell, Hodge & Frawley.... I think we will be ok.

 

[Xtreme]

We beat Richmond by 7 goals minus Mitchell, Hodge & Frawley.... I think we will be ok.

It was pretty dicey until the last quarter though

Just how much trouble they've been in the past, they can't be penciled in as an easy win.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

It was pretty dicey until the last quarter though

Just how much trouble they've been in the past, they can't be penciled in as an easy win.

I know what your saying but I think we starts favs in games against, Gold Coast, Carlton, Richmond, Collingwood, Melbourne.... 3 50-50s vs Port ( Away) North x 2..... Underdogs in games vs Sydney and West Coast. So by that reckoning I'm predicting 15 or 16 wins.

 

[Dave Id]

We are 2/1 on for Friday night and 5/1 for the Premiership.

Only Melbourne team in the top 4 betting.....just the ****y Cats,$wines and the mob that Sheedy used to coach to beat!

Fourplay

Carna Hawks!

 

[cryptor]

So we're 9-3 at the end of round 12.

There's always the chance of an upset but let's assume that's factored into weighing up our chances against the stronger sides in the 8.

Round 13, North @ Etihad
Round 16, Port @ AO
Round 17, Sydney @ SCG
Round 21, North @ MCG
Round 22, West Coast @ WA

Assuming wins for all our other games and not having significantly less team strength than we do right now then I think we can get wins in 3 of these 5 games. We're capable of winning any of these games in isolation so potentially we could win all 5. Though very likely we drop at least one.

I could eat these words next week but I think we will account for North the easiest of these games. After then it's a bit harder to pick...

Port in the worst form of the remaing 3 but recently seem to have our measure, particularly on fast tracks. But if the Dogs could beat them this week I don't see why we couldn't. Especially since we should have our best 22 available minus Schoey (and Roughy).

Sydney I think we would have accounted for the other week if we weren't victims of circumstance. It was clear as day that the players were distracted. With Tippett out for at least our game with them they don't look as dangerous for now. But they are one of the genuinely strong sides in 2016 so who knows.

And finally West Coast. A 46 point win is all but guaranteed at the MCG but they are far more formidable over in WA. But just like with the Dogs and Port, the Crows have shown that West Coast are very beatable over there too.

I agree with others who say we can't do worse than 3 more losses. Our percentage will improve while other team's will drop a bit but we still need to get at least 16-6 to finish top 4. We won't win it from outside the top 4. Though if it was to happen this is the year for it with an even spread across the top 8 and the enforced week off before finals.

 

[Xtreme]

I know what your saying but I think we starts favs in games against, Gold Coast, Carlton, Richmond, Collingwood, Melbourne.... 3 50-50s vs Port ( Away) North x 2..... Underdogs in games vs Sydney and West Coast. So by that reckoning I'm predicting 15 or 16 wins.

I'm nervous, of course I'll be happy as anyone if they won the majority of games from now until the end of the regular season..... I just don't know if it will be the case. Roll on the rest of the year!

 

[Hawkk]

Ultimately if we can bank the easier games (Gold Coast, Carlton, Richmond, Melbourne, Collingwood) we can bank on winning 2 of those 5 to qualify for top 4.

The Hawks havent lost a game to a team outside the 8. We are probably the most honest team in the finals race (beating teams below them, squaring games in the 4-6 race and losing to teams above us)

 

[Lithium]

Forget about just top 4, 2 top is completely within our grasp if we take our chances.

Richmond, Melbourne, Goldcoast, Carlton and Collingwood should all be wins, we can't take them likely but if we're a serious contender we should win those 5.

We need to win 3 out of Northx2, Sydney, Port and West coast:
North are very getable this week due to injuries.
Sydney will be without Tippet who is very important to their structure.
Both Port and West Coast are more than getable as they have shown this week.

If we could manage to get to 17-5 we're in the box seat for the flag imo. If we finish 16-6 we need to improve our percentage quite a bit as a lot of teams will be a round that.

The top 8 is incredibly even this year, home finals will be everything.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

I think 16 wins and getting top 4 is all thats required, Geelong will come top 2 IMO so that would give us a QF or PF at the MCG.

 

[PhatHQ]

So we're 9-3 at the end of round 12.

There's always the chance of an upset but let's assume that's factored into weighing up our chances against the stronger sides in the 8.

Round 13, North @ Etihad
Round 16, Port @ AO
Round 17, Sydney @ SCG
Round 21, North @ MCG
Round 22, West Coast @ WA

Assuming wins for all our other games and not having significantly less team strength than we do right now then I think we can get wins in 3 of these 5 games. We're capable of winning any of these games in isolation so potentially we could win all 5. Though very likely we drop at least one.

I could eat these words next week but I think we will account for North the easiest of these games. After then it's a bit harder to pick...

Port in the worst form of the remaing 3 but recently seem to have our measure, particularly on fast tracks. But if the Dogs could beat them this week I don't see why we couldn't. Especially since we should have our best 22 available minus Schoey (and Roughy).

Sydney I think we would have accounted for the other week if we weren't victims of circumstance. It was clear as day that the players were distracted. With Tippett out for at least our game with them they don't look as dangerous for now. But they are one of the genuinely strong sides in 2016 so who knows.

And finally West Coast. A 46 point win is all but guaranteed at the MCG but they are far more formidable over in WA. But just like with the Dogs and Port, the Crows have shown that West Coast are very beatable over there too.

I agree with others who say we can't do worse than 3 more losses. Our percentage will improve while other team's will drop a bit but we still need to get at least 16-6 to finish top 4. We won't win it from outside the top 4. Though if it was to happen this is the year for it with an even spread across the top 8 and the enforced week off before finals.

This is pretty close to my assessment so... Thanks Cryptor!
My POD is we will trudge on with hard fought wins until rd 22 where we will struggle after a tough contest against the Roos.
Inevitably finishing second to the Cats, Sydney 3rd, GWS 4th, North 5th, WB 6th, ??, ??
Touch wood we don't get any injuries or suspensions to help the cause.
The Hawks have only just started to click into second gear for season 2016 & will start to devour opposition leading into finals.
We are a new animal this year with all of the kids coming on & their hunger will drive the side on the back of great passion & leadership from the vets. 1 week at a time

 

[OzJohnnie]

17-5. We'll drop just two more games. Two reasons:

@ despite the big names, our injury list is quite short. Most teams have far more injuries. Ours are particularly crucial to our game play and success, that is true. But we we have still managed to be 9-3, which brings me to my second point.

@ We're about to get a whole lot better with Hodge coming back we are just about to put the truck into fifth gear. Good luck catching us. We'll take second position on the ladder behind the soft-scheduled handbaggers and will teach GWS how to lose away from home.

 

[Agent Smith]

The top 8 is incredibly even this year, home finals will be everything.

Bingo.

 

[grumbleguts]

Been having a look at the draw for the remainder of the year and trying to work out what I think our win loss will look like after the home and away.

I came up with 15-7, that's another 4 losses on top of our 3 already, I think we will get turned over by North at Etihad and I think we will struggle against Port, Sydney and West Coast on the road, I give us more then a fighting chance to snatch one or two of those but I reckon the 15-7 is very realistic given where our side is at this year.

What are people's thoughts?

Over the last 4 seasons, a record of 15-7 would have resulted in 5th place, we need to get into that top 4 to have a chance, think it's going to be painfully tight, get there though and look out.


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considering the accuracy of the bold bit, I chose to stop reading.

 

[Jiggystoon]

considering the accuracy of the bold bit, I chose to stop reading.

It's always so much easier to comment after the fact mate, truth is I didn't think we would win last night but it was a wonderful win and based on my OP it puts us in a really good spot for the run in


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[grumbleguts]

It's always so much easier to comment after the fact mate, truth is I didn't think we would win last night but it was a wonderful win and based on my OP it puts us in a really good spot for the run in


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My point still stands. You predicted the results of ten matches, you were wrong on the one that 8$% of 460,000 footy tiptsers got right. Not sure I can place any faith in the other nine matches.

 

[Jiggystoon]

My point still stands. You predicted the results of ten matches, you were wrong on the one that 8$% of 460,000 footy tiptsers got right. Not sure I can place any faith in the other nine matches.

Well don't then mate, sure not going to lose any sleep over that, perhaps you would like to put some of your own projections forward? Or would you like to wait until after the results so that you can be "right"?


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[grumbleguts]

Well don't then mate, sure not going to lose any sleep over that, perhaps you would like to put some of your own projections forward? Or would you like to wait until after the results so that you can be "right"?


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No I am just saying that either before or after the north game, saying north would win was just a very poor prediction. I make predictions every week. (It's called footy tipping.) I don't even care who is playing or who is in or who is out, I simply use the mathematics of dominance matrices and let the maths do the work. It has won just on a thousand dollars in the last two years in tipping comps.

For example, it tipped Hawthorn over North (but then so did everyone else).