Prediction Prospects

Golumless

I'm kind of a big deal on the east side
Jul 12, 2013
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Now that our 2019 has come to a close, and we're firmly facing a rebuild/restructure, it's probably a good time to take a look at our prospects and see where we all sit with our kids (and who knows, I may crack out some nerdy as fu** charts in the future with this thread). So lets say < 50 game players, 23 or under years old will be our cut offs for this one (though, if you want to include ROB, Milera and McAdam, I am not judging).

So eligible players are (* denotes rookie pick):

NumberFirst NameSurnameGames PlayedAgeYears on an AFL listHeight Weight
41​
JordonButts
0​
19​
1​
198cm86kg
40​
BenDavis
1​
22​
4​
187cm82kg
39​
TomDoedee
21​
22​
4​
188cm88kg
32​
DarcyFogarty
14​
19​
2​
193cm94kg
7​
JordanGallucci
27​
21​
3​
182cm76kg
35​
WillHamill
0​
18​
1​
186cm71kg
34​
ElliottHimmelberg
8​
21​
3​
198cm94kg
20​
ChayceJones
8​
19​
1​
180cm77kg
25​
NedMcHenry
0​
19​
1​
179cm70kg
36​
AndrewMcPherson
0​
20​
2​
186cm79kg
44​
LachlanMurphy
32​
20​
2​
176cm76kg
10​
MylesPoholke
11​
21​
3​
186cm86kg
38​
LachlanSholl
0​
19​
1​
185cm77kg
17​
TysonStengle
4​
20​
3​
172cm73kg
45​
KieranStrachan
0​
23​
1​
204cm95kg

For sake of simplicity, we'll go for a universal grading system (which i'm happy to refine if need be):

A: You expect this player will end up consistently at or around an AA caliber level.
B: Expected to be an above average player, but missing something to push into regular AA contention. The types you want filling the middle parts of your list.
C: Expected to be a role player at the bottom end of a best 22.
D: Top SANFL player but limited capacity to break into an AFL side. The infamous "they're good depth pieces".
E: Isn't even useful as depth. I'm willing to dub this one as the Mackay band.
N/A: Ungradable. Either they've been injured way too much, or just plucked out of obscurity (hey got to prepare for 2019s Doedee).

For me:

A: Jones, Fogarty, Doedee
B: McHenry, Sholl, Stengle, Hamill, Butts, Gallucci, Himmelberg
C: Davis, Strachan, Murphy
D: Poholke
E: No one.
N/A: McPherson.

For A: Doedee has already shown he's capable of being close to an AA caliber with 2017, though he may drop down to B depending on his knee. Fogarty is looking like a monstrous key forward prospect, and flashed some signs of being able to transition for some midfield minutes ala Pavlich in the preliminary. Jones has all of the tools to be a star midfielder once his body catches up to him. Hard at it, good skill level, quick and pretty classy.

B: I think this is McHenry floor right now, but something tells me he'll push up to A grade come next year. I just want to see him against AFL hardened bodies before making that call. Sholl could be anywhere from A to D right now due to being a very outside half back flanker, but had a good enough finals series that i'm comfortable giving him a B grade. Stengle should be a 35 goal small forward. Hamill and Butts have shown signs all season in the SANFL that they'll be good players for us in the future. Gallucci is starting to run out of time, but really, he should be in the AFL squad now and has again shown enough promising signs that he'll be above average for me (B to D for me next season). I reckon this is Himmelbergs floor right in a year or two at his current trajectory, has a lot of tools but hasn't really put it together yet.

C: Davis I don't really see a bright future with. Got some tricks though, but my read is he is a bit in between a few positions. Could go anywhere from B to E for me next season. Strachan looks like he has some tricks in SANFL, and is aggressive. I reckon C is his ceiling though. Murphy is a C grade player now, and really, he'll always be a role playing small forward. Don't see much changing there.

D: Poholke is beginning to really settle into that too good for SANFL, not good enough for AFL kind of role right now. Might push up to C in the future, but I do doubt it.

N/A: McPherson has been way too injured.

Final verdict:

I reckon it's B grade heavy right now, but that may be a symptom of a lot of first year players being on the list, and not a lot in that third/fourth year bracket. 2020 will be a make or break year coming up for Gallucci, Davis, and Himmelberg especially with us restructuring. Rest looks relatively ok, though volatile, but there is a good possibility that we also don't have enough prospects on our list at the moment.

That said, have at it, and we may get a fun consensus going with this (also I'm very intrigued with how the post trade/draft changes goes for this board, especially with us having pick 3 and quite likely getting a decent influx of kids in).
 

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mattymac

GM of Awareness
Jul 9, 2009
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Yes
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No
Also not convinced Galluci will be above average.

Think you're being a bit optimistic. We need to bring in a fair bit of new talent, particularly center square mids and KPP.
 

Johnny Rutten

Anarchy for the AFC, it's coming sometime...
Apr 25, 2008
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A = Doedee, Fogarty, McHenry, Sholl
B = Jones
C = Murphy, Gallucci, Himmelberg, Stengle, Davis, Hamill, Butts, Strachan
D = Poholke
E =
N/A = McPherson
 

kulak

Club Legend
May 16, 2006
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AA contender (A) - Hamill

Top 10 (B) - Doedee, Jones, Fogarty, McHenry, Sholl

Role player (C) - Gallucci, Himmelberg, McAdam

Depth (D) - Poholke, Davis, Murphy, Stengle

SANFL only (E) - Strachan, Butts

N/A: McPherson.

Would have had Doedee as A except he did his knee.

PS the Mackay band is C, not E.
 

SellarStardom

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Jul 2, 2008
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Did you see the SANFL finals, Himmelberg is not a good contested mark against much shorter and weaker opponents than he will get in the AFL.
Quickly heading to (C) possibly (D) category
 

Maggsy

Club Legend
Jun 29, 2015
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In order BUT according to your rating scale I'm ranking them;

(A)
1 - Tom Doedee
2 - Darcy Fogarty

(B)
3 - Chayce Jones
4 - Ned McHenry
5 - Jordan Butts
6 - Lachie Sholl
7 - Will Hamill

(C)
8 - Lachlan Murphy
9 - Tyson Stengle
10 - Jordan Gallucci
11 - Elliot Himmelberg

(D)
12 - Andrew McPherson
13 - Myles Poholke
14 - Ben Davis

(E)
15 - Kieran Strachan

Points of note;
- Extremely confident in the top 7 names - Think we have some real, real, real talent there.
- Guys ranked 8-11 could likely play anywhere from 0-100 AFL Games, but I think we've probably seen what is there. Murphy the pick of the bunch from that group.
- Ranking McPherson anywhere is hard. I think at his best he is a low end (B) but will he ever string together 15 games in a season at ANY level?
- The others are that in years to come won't be on our list if you ask me. But I hope they prove me wrong.
 

glengowan

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Oct 8, 2004
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A = Doedee, Fogarty
B = McHenry
C = Jones, Sholl, Stengle, Butts, Hammill, Murphy
D/E = Himmelberg, Galluci, Davis, Poholke, Strachan, McPherson (i.e. could be depth - not necessarily top SANFL player though)
 

WheresGroomgone

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Oct 12, 2006
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Geez I think you gents are being overly harsh on Strachan - I thought even just his finals games showed he is above average. And not much love for Scholl who I think will be very good good brain and a laser leg x2!
 

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