Prediction Q: If you start 0-2, is it time to look to the future?

[leph]

Yes it is a correlation but it is 100% driven by a causal factor - the cause being a team is bad - this leads them to start 0-2 and miss finals - I can't fathom how anyone could see otherwise.

The argument is that the 5 in 58 stat is massively skewed by the majority of those 0-2 teams who were just plain s**t and were never going to play finals regardless of going 0-2. Of course, there's going to be the occasional good side that has a bad run of form/difficult opponents to start the season.

5 in 58 doesn't tell us anything significant.

 

[Shadow89]

I don’t think being 0-2 is in itself telling. It is an example of correlation, not causation. Being a poor team leads to both starting 0-2, and missing finals, so teams that do one, are likely to do both. The headline stat is mostly contributed to by teams that were poor the year before, and continued to be poor. That’s not surprising at all.
When you take those out, the effect is not nearly so pronounced. From an admittedly small sample, it is pretty even. Each case should be judged on their merit. As long as tonight’s game is competitive (and a high quality game), neither side should be particularly concerned.

Very solid comment. I know the AFL media is frothing over this because it's good click bait journalism for them, but in all honestly, this year feels very different. Even if Freo, Geelong/Brissie, Giants go 0-2, I don't think that writes off their chances from the get go. Given the COVID affected year we had, that essentially made pre-season a lot shorter for the finals sides, coupled with insane injury lists like Freo's, I feel like teams could take a while to adjust/come home with a wet sail when they get players back.

For example, even if we start 0-4, but then we get Cameron, Danger, Ratugolea, Duncan and Menegola back...does anyone think that we won't be a far better team than we were in the first few rounds? You guys did this in 2019, when you were riddled with injury and were sitting just outside the 8 for the first half of the season. You gradually got all of your players back, and the rest is history. This season feels a lot like that with all the different machinations at play.

 

[Alwaysacrow]

Starting 0-2 isn't great but you have to look at who they've played. Carlton for example played Richmond 1st round, very hard ask for any team and then another good side in Collingwood which they just fell short. I think Carlton's list is quite good. 0-2 for them is not ideal but not a thing to ponder about their list over.

 

[Ron The Bear]

This should be accurate, but it's complicated by byes, draws etc.

Final 8 era 1994-2020 - wins down the page, losses across the page, total occurences and number of finalists in brackets

W/L	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21
0		227 (81)	125 (23)	73 (7)	42 (1)	30 (1)	22 (1)	15 (0)	11 (0)	11 (0)	6 (0)	4 (0)	4 (0)	4 (0)	3 (0)	2 (0)	2 (0)	2 (0)
1	227 (138)	204 (101)	160 (58)	112 (28)	74 (8)	55 (3)	43 (2)	34 (0)	28 (0)	25 (0)	23 (0)	16 (0)	13 (0)	10 (0)	10 (0)	7 (0)	6 (0)	5 (0)	4 (0)	3 (0)	3 (0)	2 (0)
2	125 (93)	151 (95)	155 (72)	115 (43)	82 (20)	59 (9)	44 (5)	28 (0)	28 (0)	27 (0)	24 (0)	21 (0)	19 (0)	18 (0)	16 (0)	11 (0)	12 (0)	11 (0)	9 (0)	7 (0)	5 (0)
3	74 (61)	103 (79)	141 (89)	129 (64)	104 (32)	74 (16)	66 (9)	44 (3)	33 (1)	32 (1)	27 (1)	24 (0)	24 (0)	23 (0)	21 (0)	19 (0)	14 (0)	14 (0)	14 (0)	8 (0)
4	44 (38)	60 (48)	90 (62)	109 (70)	107 (44)	89 (27)	81 (14)	61 (8)	40 (1)	37 (1)	32 (2)	29 (1)	25 (0)	23 (0)	19 (0)	21 (0)	21 (0)	20 (0)	19 (0)
5	34 (31)	51 (46)	73 (58)	95 (74)	95 (59)	82 (38)	72 (20)	64 (12)	42 (2)	39 (0)	35 (1)	33 (1)	31 (0)	27 (0)	21 (0)	20 (0)	21 (0)	13 (0)
6	21 (20)	34 (32)	51 (44)	73 (61)	75 (56)	81 (48)	76 (31)	86 (30)	55 (6)	44 (0)	31 (1)	24 (1)	22 (0)	28 (0)	18 (0)	10 (0)	10 (0)
7	15 (15)	23 (22)	41 (38)	65 (58)	61 (51)	69 (51)	54 (29)	69 (37)	50 (12)	41 (1)	45 (1)	32 (1)	27 (1)	28 (0)	30 (0)	19 (0)
8	11 (11)	18 (17)	31 (30)	57 (53)	50 (46)	62 (51)	67 (43)	66 (42)	57 (22)	37 (9)	44 (4)	32 (0)	31 (1)	26 (0)	22 (0)
9	8 (8)	14 (14)	18 (18)	50 (48)	44 (43)	39 (37)	61 (48)	71 (50)	72 (36)	54 (20)	49 (11)	36 (1)	35 (1)	22 (0)
10	5 (5)	15 (15)	13 (13)	46 (44)	45 (43)	38 (38)	46 (45)	47 (40)	44 (32)	49 (26)	48 (15)	35 (4)	31 (1)
11	4 (4)	9 (9)	10 (10)	34 (33)	40 (38)	36 (34)	43 (41)	47 (44)	43 (36)	42 (31)	41 (18)	26 (4)
12	4 (4)	6 (6)	8 (8)	22 (21)	37 (37)	34 (34)	41 (40)	44 (43)	42 (40)	45 (41)	39 (28)
13	4 (4)	6 (6)	10 (10)	17 (16)	32 (31)	28 (27)	31 (30)	41 (40)	39 (39)	26 (26)
14	2 (2)	3 (3)	7 (7)	12 (12)	27 (27)	27 (27)	24 (24)	28 (27)	29 (28)
15	2 (2)	3 (3)	6 (6)	7 (7)	24 (24)	31 (31)	34 (34)	26 (26)
16	2 (2)	2 (2)	5 (5)	6 (6)	15 (15)	21 (21)	22 (22)
17	2 (2)	2 (2)	2 (2)	5 (5)	14 (14)	20 (20)
18	2 (2)	2 (2)	2 (2)	2 (2)	8 (8)
19	2 (2)	3 (3)	2 (2)	2 (2)
20	1 (1)	3 (3)	3 (3)
21		2 (2)

 

[The Nostradamus]

Bring in the kids

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Bring in the kids

Have North got a war chest this year?

 

[The Nostradamus]

Have North got a war chest this year?

Of course

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Of course

For another big fish like Aidan Corr?

 

[The Nostradamus]

For another big fish like Aidan Corr?

Yep and then some

 

[iluvparis]

So being 0-2 in itself is not a line through your premiership chances, it is being a poor team.

Wut? Poor teams don't win the premiership - how are people seriously not seeing what is going on here!?

 

[iluvparis]

Very solid comment. I know the AFL media is frothing over this because it's good click bait journalism for them, but in all honestly, this year feels very different. Even if Freo, Geelong/Brissie, Giants go 0-2, I don't think that writes off their chances from the get go. Given the COVID affected year we had, that essentially made pre-season a lot shorter for the finals sides, coupled with insane injury lists like Freo's, I feel like teams could take a while to adjust/come home with a wet sail when they get players back.

For example, even if we start 0-4, but then we get Cameron, Danger, Ratugolea, Duncan and Menegola back...does anyone think that we won't be a far better team than we were in the first few rounds? You guys did this in 2019, when you were riddled with injury and were sitting just outside the 8 for the first half of the season. You gradually got all of your players back, and the rest is history. This season feels a lot like that with all the different machinations at play.

You only have to go to the squiggle thread to see how many people use the 'this time is different' argument to push back against the squiggle ratings. The squiggle ratings are invariably proven to be correct.

 

[iluvparis]

Bring in the kids

Who started 13-3 and missed the finals!?!?

 

[jj1978]

It's a funny skewed stat as some have alluded most teams that start 0-2 were never a finals fancy:

Brisbane: this one is a surprise, but once they get rolling and play mostly at home (last 5 rounds...) they'll be there abouts. They did play (and should of been a win) against Geelong in Geelong which backs up things a bit.

Carlton: Played best team of last 4 years and a consistent finalist in Collingwood and showed glimpses but lacked killer instinct and consistency... who knows... if our first 2 rounds were against North and Essendon...

GWS: Never in finals consideration, writing was on the wall last year and they're flakey as hell. 0-2 not surprising and expected (I tipped them to lose both games)

Essendon: Again never in finals consideration so 0-2 not surprising.

North: Most people's wooden spooner.


So you start the year 0-2 but some of the great teams lost 2+ consecutive games throughout premiership years!

Carlton lost 2 games in a row (round 8-9) in 95...
Richmond lost 4 in a row (6-9) in 2017!
West Coast 3 in a row (13-15) in 2018!
Richmond 2 (2-3) and 3 (1-13) in a row 2019!
Richmond didn't win 3 in a row last season (2-4) - round 2 being a draw.. still not a win though.
etc.. etc...

The premiers of most years are riddled with 2+ consecutive losses in a premiership year most of the time (exceptions being Hawks 3-peat), just because they don't happen in rounds 0-2 doesn't mean you can't make finals and succeed.

 

[LeverPuller]

This should be accurate, but it's complicated by byes, draws etc.

Final 8 era 1994-2020 - wins down the page, losses across the page, total occurences and number of finalists in brackets

W/L	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21
0		227 (81)	125 (23)	73 (7)	42 (1)	30 (1)	22 (1)	15 (0)	11 (0)	11 (0)	6 (0)	4 (0)	4 (0)	4 (0)	3 (0)	2 (0)	2 (0)	2 (0)
1	227 (138)	204 (101)	160 (58)	112 (28)	74 (8)	55 (3)	43 (2)	34 (0)	28 (0)	25 (0)	23 (0)	16 (0)	13 (0)	10 (0)	10 (0)	7 (0)	6 (0)	5 (0)	4 (0)	3 (0)	3 (0)	2 (0)
2	125 (93)	151 (95)	155 (72)	115 (43)	82 (20)	59 (9)	44 (5)	28 (0)	28 (0)	27 (0)	24 (0)	21 (0)	19 (0)	18 (0)	16 (0)	11 (0)	12 (0)	11 (0)	9 (0)	7 (0)	5 (0)
3	74 (61)	103 (79)	141 (89)	129 (64)	104 (32)	74 (16)	66 (9)	44 (3)	33 (1)	32 (1)	27 (1)	24 (0)	24 (0)	23 (0)	21 (0)	19 (0)	14 (0)	14 (0)	14 (0)	8 (0)
4	44 (38)	60 (48)	90 (62)	109 (70)	107 (44)	89 (27)	81 (14)	61 (8)	40 (1)	37 (1)	32 (2)	29 (1)	25 (0)	23 (0)	19 (0)	21 (0)	21 (0)	20 (0)	19 (0)
5	34 (31)	51 (46)	73 (58)	95 (74)	95 (59)	82 (38)	72 (20)	64 (12)	42 (2)	39 (0)	35 (1)	33 (1)	31 (0)	27 (0)	21 (0)	20 (0)	21 (0)	13 (0)
6	21 (20)	34 (32)	51 (44)	73 (61)	75 (56)	81 (48)	76 (31)	86 (30)	55 (6)	44 (0)	31 (1)	24 (1)	22 (0)	28 (0)	18 (0)	10 (0)	10 (0)
7	15 (15)	23 (22)	41 (38)	65 (58)	61 (51)	69 (51)	54 (29)	69 (37)	50 (12)	41 (1)	45 (1)	32 (1)	27 (1)	28 (0)	30 (0)	19 (0)
8	11 (11)	18 (17)	31 (30)	57 (53)	50 (46)	62 (51)	67 (43)	66 (42)	57 (22)	37 (9)	44 (4)	32 (0)	31 (1)	26 (0)	22 (0)
9	8 (8)	14 (14)	18 (18)	50 (48)	44 (43)	39 (37)	61 (48)	71 (50)	72 (36)	54 (20)	49 (11)	36 (1)	35 (1)	22 (0)
10	5 (5)	15 (15)	13 (13)	46 (44)	45 (43)	38 (38)	46 (45)	47 (40)	44 (32)	49 (26)	48 (15)	35 (4)	31 (1)
11	4 (4)	9 (9)	10 (10)	34 (33)	40 (38)	36 (34)	43 (41)	47 (44)	43 (36)	42 (31)	41 (18)	26 (4)
12	4 (4)	6 (6)	8 (8)	22 (21)	37 (37)	34 (34)	41 (40)	44 (43)	42 (40)	45 (41)	39 (28)
13	4 (4)	6 (6)	10 (10)	17 (16)	32 (31)	28 (27)	31 (30)	41 (40)	39 (39)	26 (26)
14	2 (2)	3 (3)	7 (7)	12 (12)	27 (27)	27 (27)	24 (24)	28 (27)	29 (28)
15	2 (2)	3 (3)	6 (6)	7 (7)	24 (24)	31 (31)	34 (34)	26 (26)
16	2 (2)	2 (2)	5 (5)	6 (6)	15 (15)	21 (21)	22 (22)
17	2 (2)	2 (2)	2 (2)	5 (5)	14 (14)	20 (20)
18	2 (2)	2 (2)	2 (2)	2 (2)	8 (8)
19	2 (2)	3 (3)	2 (2)	2 (2)
20	1 (1)	3 (3)	3 (3)
21		2 (2)

Who is the team that went 6-0 and missed?

 

[iluvparis]

Stat looks rock solid to me (again) this year - can't see any of the 0-2 teams making it. Yes the Lions were robbed late but they were also 6 goals down early days when the game was there to be won.

 

[Toffee Lion]

So you start the year 0-2 but some of the great teams lost 2+ consecutive games throughout premiership years!

Carlton lost 2 games in a row (round 8-9) in 95...
Richmond lost 4 in a row (6-9) in 2017!
West Coast 3 in a row (13-15) in 2018!
Richmond 2 (2-3) and 3 (1-13) in a row 2019!
Richmond didn't win 3 in a row last season (2-4) - round 2 being a draw.. still not a win though.
etc.. etc...

The premiers of most years are riddled with 2+ consecutive losses in a premiership year most of the time (exceptions being Hawks 3-peat), just because they don't happen in rounds 0-2 doesn't mean you can't make finals and succeed.

Lions 01' started the season 1-3. By Round 8 we got belted by 74 points against the Blues and then lost another game the week after to drop to 4-5.

Rest is history.

 

[HTT]

Wut? Poor teams don't win the premiership - how are people seriously not seeing what is going on here!?

Is your opinion of Brisbane any different now they are 0-2, as opposed to a week ago when they were 0-1? I would say they performed admirably on Friday night despite losing. They are not a poor team, and they are just one game outside the top 8. This is a situation where I don’t believe the blanket ‘you are extremely unlikely to make finals from 0-2’ applies. Brisbane are a strong team, were well beaten in R1 by a team that appears to have improved significantly, and lost narrowly to last year’s grand finalist on their patch. Sportsbet has them on the 4th line of betting to reach finals at $1.36. Squiggle has them finishing half a game outside the 8 while the aggregate of models has them finishing just inside. It’s not a good start to their season but it’s far from over.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Who is the team that went 6-0 and missed?

Essendon 2013. I probably should've filtered it out since they finished 7th prior to disqualification.

 

[Chaisa]

I still won't write off Brisbane so as long as this Covid scare doesn't explode but I think the other four teams are done.

 

[Forward Press]

This should be accurate, but it's complicated by byes, draws etc.

Final 8 era 1994-2020 - wins down the page, losses across the page, total occurences and number of finalists in brackets

W/L	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21
0		227 (81)	125 (23)	73 (7)	42 (1)	30 (1)	22 (1)	15 (0)	11 (0)	11 (0)	6 (0)	4 (0)	4 (0)	4 (0)	3 (0)	2 (0)	2 (0)	2 (0)
1	227 (138)	204 (101)	160 (58)	112 (28)	74 (8)	55 (3)	43 (2)	34 (0)	28 (0)	25 (0)	23 (0)	16 (0)	13 (0)	10 (0)	10 (0)	7 (0)	6 (0)	5 (0)	4 (0)	3 (0)	3 (0)	2 (0)
2	125 (93)	151 (95)	155 (72)	115 (43)	82 (20)	59 (9)	44 (5)	28 (0)	28 (0)	27 (0)	24 (0)	21 (0)	19 (0)	18 (0)	16 (0)	11 (0)	12 (0)	11 (0)	9 (0)	7 (0)	5 (0)
3	74 (61)	103 (79)	141 (89)	129 (64)	104 (32)	74 (16)	66 (9)	44 (3)	33 (1)	32 (1)	27 (1)	24 (0)	24 (0)	23 (0)	21 (0)	19 (0)	14 (0)	14 (0)	14 (0)	8 (0)
4	44 (38)	60 (48)	90 (62)	109 (70)	107 (44)	89 (27)	81 (14)	61 (8)	40 (1)	37 (1)	32 (2)	29 (1)	25 (0)	23 (0)	19 (0)	21 (0)	21 (0)	20 (0)	19 (0)
5	34 (31)	51 (46)	73 (58)	95 (74)	95 (59)	82 (38)	72 (20)	64 (12)	42 (2)	39 (0)	35 (1)	33 (1)	31 (0)	27 (0)	21 (0)	20 (0)	21 (0)	13 (0)
6	21 (20)	34 (32)	51 (44)	73 (61)	75 (56)	81 (48)	76 (31)	86 (30)	55 (6)	44 (0)	31 (1)	24 (1)	22 (0)	28 (0)	18 (0)	10 (0)	10 (0)
7	15 (15)	23 (22)	41 (38)	65 (58)	61 (51)	69 (51)	54 (29)	69 (37)	50 (12)	41 (1)	45 (1)	32 (1)	27 (1)	28 (0)	30 (0)	19 (0)
8	11 (11)	18 (17)	31 (30)	57 (53)	50 (46)	62 (51)	67 (43)	66 (42)	57 (22)	37 (9)	44 (4)	32 (0)	31 (1)	26 (0)	22 (0)
9	8 (8)	14 (14)	18 (18)	50 (48)	44 (43)	39 (37)	61 (48)	71 (50)	72 (36)	54 (20)	49 (11)	36 (1)	35 (1)	22 (0)
10	5 (5)	15 (15)	13 (13)	46 (44)	45 (43)	38 (38)	46 (45)	47 (40)	44 (32)	49 (26)	48 (15)	35 (4)	31 (1)
11	4 (4)	9 (9)	10 (10)	34 (33)	40 (38)	36 (34)	43 (41)	47 (44)	43 (36)	42 (31)	41 (18)	26 (4)
12	4 (4)	6 (6)	8 (8)	22 (21)	37 (37)	34 (34)	41 (40)	44 (43)	42 (40)	45 (41)	39 (28)
13	4 (4)	6 (6)	10 (10)	17 (16)	32 (31)	28 (27)	31 (30)	41 (40)	39 (39)	26 (26)
14	2 (2)	3 (3)	7 (7)	12 (12)	27 (27)	27 (27)	24 (24)	28 (27)	29 (28)
15	2 (2)	3 (3)	6 (6)	7 (7)	24 (24)	31 (31)	34 (34)	26 (26)
16	2 (2)	2 (2)	5 (5)	6 (6)	15 (15)	21 (21)	22 (22)
17	2 (2)	2 (2)	2 (2)	5 (5)	14 (14)	20 (20)
18	2 (2)	2 (2)	2 (2)	2 (2)	8 (8)
19	2 (2)	3 (3)	2 (2)	2 (2)
20	1 (1)	3 (3)	3 (3)
21		2 (2)

Thanks for the work RTB

Pretty interesting that Sydney 2017 is the only side to make finals from 0-4 or worse - and they were 0-6 at one stage.

Who were the other two sides that missed after starting 5-0?

 

[Ron The Bear]

Who were the other two sides that missed after starting 5-0?

Collingwood 2000 (15th) and Geelong 1999 (11th).

 

[Forward Press]

Collingwood 2000 (15th) and Geelong 1999 (11th).

Looking up Collingwood 2000 - wow, won their first 5 then lost 14 of the next 15. That's quite a meltdown.

 

[Roby]

According to Ron The Bear stats from 1994 on average about 5 teams each year start 0-2. Same thing this year, five teams 0-2.

There is a 92% probability that one of these teams will make finals. It's unlikely will get two, as that is a 3% chance.

 

[Toffee Lion]

Looking up Collingwood 2000 - wow, won their first 5 then lost 14 of the next 15. That's quite a meltdown.

Lions 2010 was pretty similar. Won the first 4 and then meltdown.

 

[My Tilly]

Carlton: Played best team of last 4 years and a consistent finalist in Collingwood and showed glimpses but lacked killer instinct and consistency... who knows... if our first 2 rounds were against North and Essendon...

This is the problem though, with their list and maturity, Carlton should now be good enough to beat Collingwood who have a list not much better of their own.
I was bullish with Carlton preseason but if they can't beat the Fremantle Dockers (who will be lucky to even get a sniff of finals), it's over for 2021.