QF teams matching up in GF - advantage losers?

[Dazzler9]

We now have a body of evidence under the current finals system that shows that when teams from a Qualifying Final meet again 3 weeks later in the Grand Final, the losing team from the QF usually wins the Granny.

2003 - Brisbane
2005 - Sydney
2006 - West Coast
2015 - Hawthorn
2025 - Brisbane.

The sole outlier is West Coast in 2018, who beat the Pies in the QF and then defeated them, seemingly against the odds, in the GF.

Is this just a statistical fluke, or something more to it?

Personally, I think it might be an advantage to get a look at an opponent in the QF, go away and lick your wounds, and formulate a new gameplan for the GF (should you make it).

 

[Mr Q]

We now have a body of evidence under the current finals system that shows that when teams from a Qualifying Final meet again 3 weeks later in the Grand Final, the losing team from the QF usually wins the Granny.

2003 - Brisbane
2005 - Sydney
2006 - West Coast
2015 - Hawthorn
2025 - Brisbane.

The sole outlier is West Coast in 2018, who beat the Pies in the QF and then defeated them, seemingly against the odds, in the GF.

Is this just a statistical fluke, or something more to it?

Personally, I think it might be an advantage to get a look at an opponent in the QF, go away and lick your wounds, and formulate a new gameplan for the GF (should you make it).

Given 05/06 were a goal total between them each set of QFs and GFs and could have gone any way, I'm going to say statistical fluke.

 

[Clark G]

Although a different finals system, can add 1993 to the list. On that occasion, Essendon were missing several first choice players due to injury in the first final yet only lost by two points. Three weeks later in the grand final, with those players that missed the first final back, Essendon defeated Carlton by a large margin.

 

[Clark G]

We now have a body of evidence under the current finals system that shows that when teams from a Qualifying Final meet again 3 weeks later in the Grand Final, the losing team from the QF usually wins the Granny.

2003 - Brisbane
2005 - Sydney
2006 - West Coast
2015 - Hawthorn
2025 - Brisbane.

The sole outlier is West Coast in 2018, who beat the Pies in the QF and then defeated them, seemingly against the odds, in the GF.

Is this just a statistical fluke, or something more to it?

Personally, I think it might be an advantage to get a look at an opponent in the QF, go away and lick your wounds, and formulate a new gameplan for the GF (should you make it).

In all of those instances except 2006, the team that lost the QF and rebounded to win the GF was seeded third and beat the second seed. This possibly demonstrates the little difference between seeds two and three.

 

[PerthBoy86]

I think there's definitely something to it, and I've also noticed this season many sides beat the side they lost to in their previous encounter. I've no doubt the game is more analysed/tactical than ever before, and coaching more important than ever.

I hope sides don't tank in the QFs for this reason though! Still think if you're good enough you'll win despite the oppo trying to figure you out.

As an added weird stat, all of these occurrences involve the Eagles and Lions.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

I think there's definitely something to it, and I've also noticed this season many sides beat the side they lost to in their previous encounter. I've no doubt the game is more analysed/tactical than ever before, and coaching more important than ever.

I hope sides don't tank in the QFs for this reason though! Still think if you're good enough you'll win despite the oppo trying to figure you out.

As an added weird stat, all of these occurrences involve the Eagles and Lions.

As if a team would tank a QF. Stupid comment perthboy

 

[daniel_4tw]

I do think there is a bit of seeing how they beat you.

For example, Chris Scott

Chris Scott

Age

49

Ht

182cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

11.2

4star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.4

3star

No current season stats available

D

13.2

4star

K

10.2

4star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

had a game plan to beat Brisbane in the QF, and it worked. Fagan then had 3 weeks to review the game and tactics, and see how he could counter those tactics.

Sure, Scott could use different tactics but who would change a winning formula?

If they were to play again, would that mean Geelong wins?

 

[Dazzler9]

In all of those instances except 2006, the team that lost the QF and rebounded to win the GF was seeded third and beat the second seed. This possibly demonstrates the little difference between seeds two and three.

This is a fair point. The sides are obviously closely matched.

So if anything it feeds into my theory that it helps to have had a look at your opponent 3 weeks before the Grand Final, and lost. You can come up with a new strategy to combat whatever caused your loss.

The caveat of course, is that you need to get through the semi's and prelim to even get the opportunity.