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GWS Giants vs Walyalup Dockers
Saturday 17 May; 14:15 AWST
Sydney Showgrounds / Olympic Park / ENGIE Stadium
Make no mistake, this will be a (insert noun here)-defining game for the FFC.
Coming into the season with high hopes, Freo have managed the
After giving half the comp a head start by waiting until 'Round 1' to play our first game, the Dockers decided to give some further assistance, getting off to an 0-2 start, and getting into a percentage hole with a huge loss to the Cats, and not capitalising on a poor West Coast outfit in round 3.
This has meant we are both a win and a heap of percentage outside of the 8, currently rounded out by this week's opponents (GWS 5-4, 113.4% to Freo 4-5, 95.7%). In fact, the Lions have the lowest percentage of the top 8, and this will be an enormous hill to climb, even with 2/3 of the season to come.
It means that Freo have an absolutely critical month of fixtures leading up to our bye, including 8th, 9th, 13th, and that team that will find a way to crash out of their top 4 spot to battling (and likely missing) the finals.
After a solid run with injuries, we've had a poor recent time, with a number of dynamic players suffering lengthy injuries: NOD's recovery stumbling, Walker, Narkle and Young gone for long stints on the sidelines.
Compounding this with Ruck Dog's recurring issues, and the media sideshow about LJ leading the news this week, and Freo is in a world of pain.
However, the Giants have also lost key players, including The Artist Formerly Known as the Package, until he does something good for a quarter and then is again the Package, as well as captain Toby Greene and tagger Toby Bedford who need to pass fitness tests this week.
Finals hinges on this game. And with that, potentially closing the book on:
- the tenure of JLo
- the careers of Fyfe, Walters, Aish, JOM, Banfield
- the Freo careers of Jackson
Our odds to make the finals are already slim, such that the door is closed with a loss this week.
Last Time We Met - Round 24, 2024
Freo travels to Western Sydney for the 3rd straight season, having lost by 70 points in 2023, and then 9 points last time out in a see-sawing contest. Giants led at quarter time, but with a flurry of 3 late goals, Freo closed to 8 points, and carried that into the 2nd quarter, leading by 9 at the main break. The Giants wrested control back with a strong 3rd quarter, and held a narrow lead all the way home. Former Giant and former Docker Jesse Hogan kicked 6 goals on his way to the Coleman medal.
This loss was our 3rd of 4 consecutively, in that disastrous end to the season that saw us fall from 3rd to 10th. In fact, it was the Giants game that caused us to drop out of the 8, before submitting to the Power in the final round.
It was also the 7th of 7 consecutive wins for the Giants, shoring up their top 4 spot, and giving them a golden opportunity to make another grand final. It needed two almighty choke efforts to lose to both the Swans and the Lions, losing two unloseable finals in a row, against each of the eventual grand finalists.
Historic H2H
After a strong bully effort to give us an early 4-0 lead over the Giants, they've decided to be a bit better at football than from 2012-2015, and have closed the H2H to 8-7 Freo, and threatening to take this over us.
Weirdly, the last three matches have been at Manuka (2022) and Showgrounds (23-24), and so there has only been 3/15 of these matches at Optus Stadium.
Recent form and relevant things
As noted, we've not been particularly
The aforementioned Hogan kicked 7 and is in amazing form again.
However, they are coming off this bruising match on a 6-day break, whilst our boys have had the 9 day break.
Key Matchups
Undoubtedly, the matchup on Hogan will be critical, and it appears that Jesse, at least, things that will be Moose/AP/Captain Courageous, with the pair previously trying to not be awkward after their breakup with Hogan moving across the nullabor.
At the other end, Freo needs its forward line to do something (anything!) to show some progress. Potentially a shake up of personnel, or at least of strategy, is required, in order for us to keep up and put a winning score up.
In the midfield, Tom Green and Finn Callaghan continued their excellent form with 37 and 29 disposals, respectively, Callaghan adding 7 tackles as well. The Giants may welcome back Coniglio this week, and potentially get Toby Bedford back to tag Caleb Serong (presumably), provided his looking holes are working again.
Prediction?
Prior to writing this up, I was not at all confident in Freo's chances of winning.
However, this is a now or never battle, they have a 6 (vs 9) day break, its likely to rain which should keep it close, and hopefully help Moose with keeping Hogan in check, and may see our small forward army get into action from the first bounce.
How much do we want it?
Giants by 9 points
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