Play Nice Random Chat Thread: Episode III

[ferball]

Surely the US or any other country is entitled to try to supply its domestic oil needs by increasing domestic production and reducing reliance on imports (substitute 'oil' for any other commodity, actually). The OPEC nations had it good for a long time and then the US became more self-sufficient due to higher productivity from the Gulf of Mexico (and to a lesser extent, secondary sources like shale). Yes, Venezeula was adversely affected, but the real impact was due to the reaction of the Saudis to losing part of their export market - not just to the US, but also because the US were now exporting to Saudi's traditional buyers. They increased their production and forced prices down because they are the world's lowest cost producer, with long-term and easily accessible reserves.*

* caveat - this is an over-simplication as it ignores other forces.

Yeah yeah. Of course they are. They possibly would have done so anyway with or without considering Venezuela. Its way more complex than a few lines on a discussion board would allow. And the Saudi's were as involved, although they are US allies too ... dunno how the relationship was back then. Its never been that bad i guess. Its hard to point to single events causing single other events. Everything is entangled. Causality is more of a network than a straight line even in something as seemingly linear as geo-politics and history over the last few decades.

That applies to everything tho including footy.

The US has always exploited South and Central America where they could. After the Monroe Doctrine. Its a murky mess really. The guy who some say invented PR - Edward Bernays - was the one who coined the term Banana Republic, did some work promoting US business interest in Guatemala. Its a similar situation in some ways tho Guatemala was actually attempting to emulate the US and become a capitalist, liberal democracy. This threatened the business interests of United Fruit and they lobbied the US to overthrow the government, in the process inspiring Che Guevarra to become a revolutionary. Its not the same situation but there are some similarities.

 

[ferball]

That’s heartening to know. My mum has breast cancer at the moment and it’s been a tough time.

I hope she does okay. My mum has had it a few times over the years ... well twice, three times if you count the first time in 1993 ... which was a much smaller issue. First time was 1995 on the same breast as earlier. She had radiotherapy at Peter Mac in Melbourne. Then ten years ago similar thing on the other side. Same treatment. So far no relapse. Nearly 25 years on the first treatment. 10 on the second.

I dunno enough to know if thats applicable but even if it isn't things are pretty good these days. A positive attitude and good food (and a good support network) is crucial tho. I know people who swear by pure THC too, not mum. You can get the oil, possibly even legally these days.

Even tho we haven't got a "cure" yet (but what Tef linked above is very much along that path) cancer treatments have been very good for a long time if you get things early and are lucky dunno if lucks an issue anymore its more about attitude and good food, especially the right sort.

 

[Val Keating]

Yeah yeah. Of course they are. They possibly would have done so anyway with or without considering Venezuela. Its way more complex than a few lines on a discussion board would allow. And the Saudi's were as involved, although they are US allies too ... dunno how the relationship was back then. Its never been that bad i guess. Its hard to point to single events causing single other events. Everything is entangled. Causality is more of a network than a straight line even in something as seemingly linear as geo-politics and history over the last few decades.

That applies to everything tho including footy.

The US has always exploited South and Central America where they could. After the Monroe Doctrine. Its a murky mess really. The guy who some say invented PR - Edward Bernays - was the one who coined the term Banana Republic, did some work promoting US business interest in Guatemala. Its a similar situation in some ways tho Guatemala was actually attempting to emulate the US and become a capitalist, liberal democracy. This threatened the business interests of United Fruit and they lobbied the US to overthrow the government, in the process inspiring Che Guevarra to become a revolutionary. Its not the same situation but there are some similarities.

“The US has always exploited South and Central America where they could.”

More powerful organised and united people/nations have always exploited smaller independent & divided people/nations. That’s what humans do. Still sucks though.

I had this thought recently after listening to some ancient history stuff,

Do you reckon in 2,000 years when people study powerful empires that shaped the world, they’ll be studying national empires or business empires?

I’m leaning towards the latter

 

[Snake_Baker]

That’s heartening to know. My mum has breast cancer at the moment and it’s been a tough time.

Keep fighting and make sure she does all the behavioral things that she can control to stay on top of it.

 

[ferball]

“The US has always exploited South and Central America where they could.”

More powerful organised and united people/nations have always exploited smaller independent & divided people/nations. That’s what humans do. Still sucks though.

I had this thought recently after listening to some ancient history stuff,

Do you reckon in 2,000 years when people study powerful empires that shaped the world, they’ll be studying national empires or business empires?

I’m leaning towards the latter

That depends what the future holds. I think that that business empires and national military ones have always gone hand in hand. The British empire had massive business interests alongside it. The US ones are the same. Japan in the first half of last century. probably more examples if you look. There's some interesting Sci Fi around businesses replacing nation states as well.

There's a fair chance humans won't make another 2000 years tho. At least not in a state to be able to write any serious accurate history of the past 200 or 300 years.

 

[Snake_Baker]

RIP The Tender Touch under the new Google overlord rules
https://r.tapatalk.com/shareLink?ur...hare_tid=1217142&share_fid=23893&share_type=t

The Disneyfication of planet earth marches on.

 

[Val Keating]

That depends what the future holds. I think that that business empires and national military ones have always gone hand in hand. The British empire had massive business interests alongside it. The US ones are the same. Japan in the first half of last century. probably more examples if you look. There's some interesting Sci Fi around businesses replacing nation states as well.

There's a fair chance humans won't make another 2000 years tho. At least not in a state to be able to write any serious accurate history of the past 200 or 300 years.

Damn. Here I was thinking I had an original thought

 

[Sopwiths North]

The opposition claimed ballot stuffing was used to rig the election. Highly unlikely as explained in this article (a few parts of the article haven't aged well): https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/oct/03/why-us-dcemonises-venezuelas-democracy

""In Venezuela, voters touch a computer screen to cast their vote and then receive a paper receipt, which they verify and deposit in a ballot box. Most of the paper ballots are compared with the electronic tally. This system makes vote-rigging nearly impossible: to steal the vote would require hacking the computers and then stuffing the ballot boxes to match the rigged vote."

As you say, there's no way we can know for sure if any election is rigged.

To me though, the whole situation reeks of an opposition party which knows it may not have the numbers trying to sabotage any election attempt (even if they are afraid it would be rigged) in an attempt to trigger international support for a coup d'etat.

To bring the point back to Romania, I actually saw this on the ground there a few years back, with foreign NGOs (American and British people) and all advising local people on how to delegitimize what was in actual fact a large, landslide win for the social democratic government there. Ever since I saw that, and the reporting surrounding the protests there, I've been so skeptical of everything I hear. I know that effectively makes me a useless fence-sitter though.

Maduro and the Venezuelan head honchos are far from perfect but I'm not exactly trusting of the opposition either - especially when their policy points essentially amount to "open this country up to privatization and corporate interests". The regime can't win. Westerners go "oh, see, no UN was present to observe the integrity, how evil is the regime!" Then they read further and it's "oh, well it was actually the opposition who didn't want the UN observing, but that's only because it would legitimate a RIGGED election!"

People are suffering, and the embargoes should be ended immediately. Only then can we get an adequate picture of the situation. Hell, even then, it'll be confusing and full of lies on both sides.

You're right to call it a "regime", and that's pretty much the point my original post on all this was making. The election I was referring to in response to ferb's call on "democratically elected" was the 2018 one which over 50 countries view as illegitimate, not just the US. This is the election where the opposition were jailed or otherwise prevented from running, and interestingly, had one of the smallest voter turnouts.

Of course no country exists in a vacuum, and the political and economic interests of other more powerful countries are always going to play their part. I'm not suggesting that they don't. But there seems to have clearly been some blocking of fair electoral process by the Maduro regime in 2018. And there also seems to have been some clear blocking of humanitarian aid to the Venezuelan people by same said regime, whereas Guaido supported that aid to come in. It might be overly simplistic of me, but I'll always back the guy who wants to feed his people.

 

[Mav]

Avengers Endgame is my new favourite all time movie.

Bloody awesome.

I can’t believe.....

Spoiler

that you actually clicked to see a spoiler. As if!

 

[Themanbun]

It might be overly simplistic of me, but I'll always back the guy who wants to feed his people.

Yeah, see, I don't buy the idea that Maduro doesn't want to feed his people.

There are many reasons why a country may refuse aid, Bush during hurricane Katrina is one example. If it were really about the US giving supposedly unconditional aid, then they'd be lifting the trade embargoes that have helped to create this situation of poverty.

It's also important to note that he has only rejected humanitarian aid which is in some way connected with USAID program. He has accepted aid from China, Russia and other sources. Guaido, ironically, has criticised Maduro for taking this aid.

But that's political meddling 101 (which you suggested is bad if it has 'Putin's hands' in it?)

Step 1. Help to create a situation of poverty and desperation.
Step 2. Use superior resources to present either yourself (foreign intervention) or your preferred candidate (the one who'll sell the country to you) as the saviour. The US made it very clear that they were going to pin Guaido as the 'mastermind' for providing aid to the people. I don't buy it.

This article provides a fairly even handed view: https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/the...-so-many-people-in-his-country-need-it-111585

 

[ferball]

Damn. Here I was thinking I had an original thought

Lol.

I'm pretty sure everything we ever think has already been thought by someone else before.

 

[ferball]

RIP The Tender Touch under the new Google overlord rules
https://r.tapatalk.com/shareLink?ur...hare_tid=1217142&share_fid=23893&share_type=t

I thought that was a comment on the quality of our posting....

 

[ferball]

Interesting article TMB.

What do you make of these bits though?

"Venezuela’s opposition alliance called on the United Nations on Monday not to send observers to the presidential election on May 20 to avoid legitimizing a poll it says is rigged in favor of Socialist President Nicolas Maduro."

"Critics say the government is likely to manipulate the vote results and that participating will legitimize the process."

What we don't know is whether or not it's rigged. Not sure we can know that.

Why would you not want an independent observer if you thought the elections would be rigged? Either that independent observation process is worthless in which case it provides no legitimacy anyway and you don't need to tell them not to come or it counters your claim about the elections illegitimacy.

They're basically saying:

"He's cheating but don't come and check so we can continue to say he's cheating."

 

[ferball]

Bloody awesome.

I can’t believe.....

Spoiler

that you actually clicked to see a spoiler. As if!

I wanted to see what you'd put there.

Now I have - 3 and a half stars.

 

[ferball]

The opposition claimed ballot stuffing was used to rig the election. Highly unlikely as explained in this article (a few parts of the article haven't aged well): https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/oct/03/why-us-dcemonises-venezuelas-democracy

""In Venezuela, voters touch a computer screen to cast their vote and then receive a paper receipt, which they verify and deposit in a ballot box. Most of the paper ballots are compared with the electronic tally. This system makes vote-rigging nearly impossible: to steal the vote would require hacking the computers and then stuffing the ballot boxes to match the rigged vote."

As you say, there's no way we can know for sure if any election is rigged.

To me though, the whole situation reeks of an opposition party which knows it may not have the numbers trying to sabotage any election attempt (even if they are afraid it would be rigged) in an attempt to trigger international support for a coup d'etat.

To bring the point back to Romania, I actually saw this on the ground there a few years back, with foreign NGOs (American and British people) and all advising local people on how to delegitimize what was in actual fact a large, landslide win for the social democratic government there. Ever since I saw that, and the reporting surrounding the protests there, I've been so skeptical of everything I hear. I know that effectively makes me a useless fence-sitter though.

Maduro and the Venezuelan head honchos are far from perfect but I'm not exactly trusting of the opposition either - especially when their policy points essentially amount to "open this country up to privatization and corporate interests". The regime can't win. Westerners go "oh, see, no UN was present to observe the integrity, how evil is the regime!" Then they read further and it's "oh, well it was actually the opposition who didn't want the UN observing, but that's only because it would legitimate a RIGGED election!"

People are suffering, and the embargoes should be ended immediately. Only then can we get an adequate picture of the situation. Hell, even then, it'll be confusing and full of lies on both sides.

That sounds like a less sus system than the electronic voting in the US.

Interesting post btw. When did what you mention in Romania happen?

 

[Themanbun]

That sounds like a less sus system than the electronic voting in the US.

Interesting post btw. When did what you mention in Romania happen?

A couple of years ago. Massive protests against the largely popular PSD government. I was there and witnessed foreign NGOs spreading literal fake news, organising petitions, luring people to come out and protest with free pizza (free pizza provided in the square on the same night as the protest was organised, obviously try and create a spectacle effect).

The government became unpopular in the West because it raised minimum salaries, pensions, taxes on corporations, and socialised some of the profits from foreign companies which have the benefit of being able to take Romanian natural resources, such as forestry. Following this there was a largely foreign, English media driven campaign to convince the young English speakers in the country that the government was corrupt (it was, to the degree that virtually every government is, so there was a nugget of truth seized upon, and the corruption of the Liberal economic parties selling out national resources to German and Austrian business interests was largely ignored). The incompetence of the ruling party has been largely ignored in years gone by because prior to the most recent election, they had complied in selling out the country - but they finally drew a line in the sand and reversed their policies in electing a new party leader.

By the end of it, it predictably snowballed into an anti-government movement, there were hundreds of thousands of people on the street. News stations were reporting that these were all anti government protestors. I was there, and it was at least a 50/50 split anti vs pro government demonstrators, if not more in favour of the pro government side. I questioned an English journalist as to why they were recording everyone there as protesting against the government, and was laughed at and told to move on. When I asked the anti gov protestors why they were there, some said because it's fun, others couldn't say anything other than 'corruption'. Others (usually rich kids who left in Audi's) said that he 'bribed the poor to vote for him'. You ask how he did that, and they would respond with "he wants to raise the minimum wage!"

The next day I had Germans from humanitarian NGOs soliciting me in English to sign a petition to remove the government. When I asked why it's suitable for me as a foreigner to speak for the Romanian people they hurled abuse at me.

The supposed violence used by the police forces was actually extremely minimal, and in response to a female police officer having her spine broken (police had to clear the area, fast, after this) far less so than the French police in the recent protests there.

Yet the media narrative was all one way. The ruling government party and prime minister are corrupt, the masses want them gone, the President (from their version of the Liberal National Party, a conservative) is right to be undermining the prime Minister and ruling party, etc.

I sat there and watched how a narrative being pumped online and outright fabricated began to actually attract momentum from hooligans, people looking for a spectacle, and those who look to the West for their ideas, foreign expats abroad, and those English speaking youngsters who think that the social democratic policies are holding them back.

Bottom line is the government there won the election in a landslide because they raised the minimum wage (equals higher costs for foreign companies using Romanian labourers), created a sovereign wealth fund, raised the pension, raised business taxes, and secured some national resources for Romanian rather than foreign benefit. They also raised salaries in crucial professions so that Romanians wouldn't leave the country for better pay elsewhere. This suite of policies annoyed the many vested interested that have plundered that region of Europe for decades and there was a very clear effort on their behalf to foment a 'colour revolution' of sorts - and this really wasn't a government with any hyper radical socialist policies.

My family could barely believe me when I told them that what they're hearing on the news is, for the most part (there were some nuggets of truth), contrary to what we were seeing on the ground. Legitimately frightening how a narrative like that could take off, but that's what people in the not-so powerful countries have to contend with. Hell, I've no doubt it happens here too, but it's just better concealed.

 

[The Butcher]

I'll just mention, anyone thinking of contacting our foreign affairs minister to get an explanation on why they felt it was essential that the people of australia, as expressed through her office, take a position(to put it mildy) on Venezuela's domestic politics.. don't bother. You will get no response.

 

[ferball]

Thanks for that.

Its interesting. There has been a lot of mucking about in Eastern Europe this decade. Colour revolutions etc, I'm not a fan of Russian propaganda but I've read stuff supporting what you say on RT the Russian gov media mouthpiece.

Fits a historical pattern too - very similar to what I mentioned about Guatemala, including the minimum wage staff and nationalising resources that are leaving the country cheaply.

 

[Themanbun]

Thanks for that.

Its interesting. There has been a lot of mucking about in Eastern Europe this decade. Colour revolutions etc, I'm not a fan of Russian propaganda but I've read stuff supporting what you say on RT the Russian gov media mouthpiece.

Yep. It's important to note I guess that most Romanians, even PSD supporting ones, are sceptical of Russian designs in eastern Europe. Not hostile to Russia, but sceptical. The ruling government is still pro EU, despite their social democratic changes.

There comes a point, e.g. in Venezuela, where there really isn't much choice anymore but to accept help from one great power or another, whether Russian, American or Chinese, and that's when things get messy.

 

[ferball]

Yeah Russia is no different to anyone else. Tho there is a big movement of people claiming they are some sort of guardians of freedom against the evul US. these are actually lefties and anti imperialist/fascist types too. They forget that Putin is a brutal campaigner with ties to some the worlds biggest criminals and that he's (most likely) had critics and investigative journos murdered after they claimed he came to power on the back of organising false flag terrorist incidents late last century.

 

[andana]

You're only quoting revenue there. Did the companies mentioned actually post profits?

It's my understanding tax is paid on profits not revenue.

 

[D23D]

Where’s Groin guru gone?
Seems to have disappeared. Maybe getting Kangatech ready for sale??

 

[ferball]

Where’s Groin guru gone?
Seems to have disappeared. Maybe getting Kangatech ready for sale??

They got to him.

 

[Sopwiths North]

Yeah, see, I don't buy the idea that Maduro doesn't want to feed his people.

There are many reasons why a country may refuse aid, Bush during hurricane Katrina is one example. If it were really about the US giving supposedly unconditional aid, then they'd be lifting the trade embargoes that have helped to create this situation of poverty.

It's also important to note that he has only rejected humanitarian aid which is in some way connected with USAID program. He has accepted aid from China, Russia and other sources. Guaido, ironically, has criticised Maduro for taking this aid.

But that's political meddling 101 (which you suggested is bad if it has 'Putin's hands' in it?)

Step 1. Help to create a situation of poverty and desperation.
Step 2. Use superior resources to present either yourself (foreign intervention) or your preferred candidate (the one who'll sell the country to you) as the saviour. The US made it very clear that they were going to pin Guaido as the 'mastermind' for providing aid to the people. I don't buy it.

This article provides a fairly even handed view: https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/the...-so-many-people-in-his-country-need-it-111585

“Maduro contends that these shipments are a plot to meddle in his country’s internal affairs – a Trojan horse courtesy of Uncle Sam to undermine Venezuelan democracy”

So then he thinks Putin has no similar intent?

“In a nation where two or more groups are vying for power, that can change the power dynamics. For Maduro, who is still in power, with the Venezuelan military behind him for the time being, any changes caused by the distribution of aid can only weaken his position politically. To Maduro, it is no doubt clear that Guaidó stands to gain most from the humanitarian aid reaching Venezuelans because he can champion the aid as a success of his shadow government”

That sounds like putting his own interests in maintaining power ahead of feeding his people to me. But whatever. Take aid from Russia then, or China, or whatever other countries with leaders of similar dictatorial ilk to his own. If it puts food and medicine in the hands of the people, great. But suggesting he’s doing it because he cares about them more than he does his own power just isn’t a pill I’m able to swallow. I think we’ll just have to agree to disagree on him.

As for ferb’s post about the election rigging – I’m going to assume that those persons running are likely privy to more behind the scenes workings than the UN or anyone else is. Having the UN there to give its blessings to an already rigged campaign would only legitimise said rigged campaign – i.e. – nothing to see here, it’s all fine. When those in the know know it isn’t. It would be like sending the UN to Russia to legitimise the election where the primary opposition leader (Alexei Navalny) was prevented from running because Putin made sure he got tossed in jail enough times to no longer qualify. You don’t want that kind of rigging to be legitimised by holding the ensuing polling with the UN around. Cos it ain’t legit circumstances to begin with.

 

[Thndr]

I honestly cant watch mainstream news anymore, its just utter utter rubbish.