Play Nice Random Chat Thread V

[Kangaroos4eva]

Was listening to a podcast a while back that reckons the Chinese will blow up enough satellites to start a chain reaction in space, wiping out all communications. Drones etc become useless.

It then becomes more of a ground war.

Space, Cyberwarfare and EW capabilities are very important to the modern military. In the instance you described, that would be an attack on C4ISREW systems, which would effectively cripple the military's capacity to respond to anything. An insurgency would be the only viable response then.

 

[Del191229]

I was discussing the contemporary context after the raft of nuclear non-proliferation policies and treaties. If Washington did not pull the trigger during the Cuban Missile Crisis, or during the Reagan years, then they are unlikely to pull it in regards to China. US nuclear stockpile reductions also lend credence to this view.

I said it was arguable as we do not fully understand Chinese intentions, strategy or nuclear strength. As I said earlier, some of Beijing's strategists view US actions within the Cold War lens of containment and we know from history that country's do not respond well to nationalist feelings of being isolated. You add that strategic lens, and the escalating China-US rivalry, to a (small) expansion of nuclear capabilities and you start to at least think about China's actions. I personally think it is an added deterrence measure, but that's just me guessing.


Also: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0096340211426630 (2011)

Today, China is the only one of five original nuclear weapon states that is increasing its nuclear arsenal. According to some estimates, the country could “more than double” the number of warheads on missiles that could threaten the United States by the mid-2020s. Earlier this year, China published a defense white paper, which repeated its nuclear policies of maintaining a minimum deterrent with a no-first-use pledge. Yet China has yet to define what it means by a minimum deterrent posture. This, together with the fact that it is deploying four new nuclear-capable ballistic missiles, invites concern as to the scale and intention of China’s nuclear upgrade. The authors estimate that China has a total inventory of approximately 240 nuclear warheads.


Playing devil's advocate here, but why would you expand your nuclear arsenal whilst your geostrategic rival in the US continues to reduce its nuclear arsenal and is committed to nuclear non-proliferation. I'm not suggesting anything, but Chinese actions are open to interpretation.

Funnily enough, this discussion reminds me of the Sino-Soviet split over Mao's desire to establish a nuclear program, but that's another discussion.

Great post.

I agree that China now is more likely than ever to use nukes, but I don't think it ever would.

Country most likely to use nukes is Israel. By some distance.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Are we able to nominate areas to be nuked?
I mean, Port Hedland might actually be improved if we want a test area

Not sure it improved Maralinga much. Now we have South Australians with the longest mullets in the world...

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Great post.

I agree that China now is more likely than ever to use nukes, but I don't think it ever would.

Country most likely to use nukes is Israel. By some distance.

I don't think they will either. I think it is more to do with deterrence and guided by feelings of containment and isolation. Got to be careful though, otherwise, we'll get Germany (pre-WWI navy expansion) and Japan (raw materials and expansion) again.

Israel is an interesting call. I assume Iran-related.

 

[Val Keating]

The US chose to kill hundreds of thousands of civilians in a few hours for its own strategic goals.

That's all there is to it.

Yeah you’re right, but it’s more complicated then that. Japan refused to surrender, killing thousands of people by continuing a war that they knew they had zero chance of winning. They had to be stopped. Once the war in the pacific became a war of attrition it was over for them, yet they continued to fight knowing that they could not win. So many Australian soldiers died fighting an enemy that refused to admit defeat.

What do you do in that situation, when there’s an option to end the war? Keep sending your people to die because an enemy won’t surrender or just force them to submit?

 

[krakouers]

Not sure it improved Maralinga much. Now we have South Australians with the longest mullets in the world...

Knowing more than a few crow eaters, I think that’s unrelated

 

[Del191229]

I don't think they will either. I think it is more to do with deterrence and guided by feelings of containment and isolation. Got to be careful though, otherwise, we'll get Germany (pre-WWI navy expansion) and Japan (raw materials and expansion) again.

Israel is an interesting call. I assume Iran-related.

If Israel feels it is under existential threat it will.

Didn't Golda Meir have planes on the runway in 1973 ready to go with nukes to blow up the Saudi oilfields to effectively make the Americans save them?

 

[Del191229]

Yeah you’re right, but it’s more complicated then that. Japan refused to surrender, killing thousands of people by continuing a war that they knew they had zero chance of winning. They had to be stopped. Once the war in the pacific became a war of attrition it was over for them, yet they continued to fight knowing that they could not win. So many Australian soldiers died fighting an enemy that refused to admit defeat.

What do you do in that situation, when there’s an option to end the war? Keep sending your people to die because an enemy won’t surrender or just force them to submit?

Yeah, I can understand why the US did it, and it made strategic sense.

 

[Del191229]

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Yeah you’re right, but it’s more complicated then that. Japan refused to surrender, killing thousands of people by continuing a war that they knew they had zero chance of winning. They had to be stopped. Once the war in the pacific became a war of attrition it was over for them, yet they continued to fight knowing that they could not win. So many Australian soldiers died fighting an enemy that refused to admit defeat.

What do you do in that situation, when there’s an option to end the war? Keep sending your people to die because an enemy won’t surrender or just force them to submit?

Some argue that the rapid Soviet occupation of most China, Manchuria and Korea may have sparked a surrender on its own, but that is not the dominant train of historical thought.

If Israel feels it is under existential threat it will.

Didn't Golda Meir have planes on the runway in 1973 ready to go with nukes to blow up the Saudi oilfields to effectively make the Americans save them?

Very true, almost forgot about that.

Yom Kippur: Israel's 1973 nuclear alert - UPI.com

During the 1973 Yom Kippur war, Israel came close to making a nuclear preemptive strike when it seemed to be facing defeat at the hands of Syrian armor, accordi

www.upi.com

 

[B4Bear]

Wow incredibly poor article, as complex humans, we can support both issues, they are not in conflict with each other, nor should they be..

Yes, it’s disturbing that so many women are harmed by men. We need a hell of a lot more support in regards to mental health in the western world. Because yes it’s a mental health issue.

And yes destroying/distorting history is never a good idea and should not be supported..

Destroying/removing a statue is not destroying/distorting history.

The history occurred regardless of the existence of a statue.

‘’Your argument is used by those in the USA that oppose removing confederate statues. When the reality is removal removes the ‘honouring’ of people and events, not the events themselves.

 

[Del191229]

Destroying/removing a statue is not destroying/distorting history.

The history occurred regardless of the existence of a statue.

‘’Your argument is used by those in the USA that oppose removing confederate statues. When the reality is removal removes the ‘honouring’ of people and events, not the events themselves.

As Hyde says in the article, where were these people when the statue of Jimmy Saville came down?

 

[B4Bear]

It’s about aircraft carriers I reckon

Nope.

‘Aircraft Carriers are the battleships of the 21st century. Slow and vulnerable to missions attacking on multiple vectors.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Destroying/removing a statue is not destroying/distorting history.

The history occurred regardless of the existence of a statue.

‘’Your argument is used by those in the USA that oppose removing confederate statues. When the reality is removal removes the ‘honouring’ of people and events, not the events themselves.

 

[DesertRoo]

Destroying/removing a statue is not destroying/distorting history.

The history occurred regardless of the existence of a statue.

‘’Your argument is used by those in the USA that oppose removing confederate statues. When the reality is removal removes the ‘honouring’ of people and events, not the events themselves.

You honestly haven’t thought very hard about this topic..
not all monuments/statues are a source of pride.. they are incredible important when taught within historical context.

 

[Val Keating]

You honestly haven’t thought very hard about this topic..
not all monuments/statues are a source of pride.. they are incredible important when taught within historical context.

This is a topic that I did a complete 180 on after the BLM protesters pulling down statues, at first I was all for it but then I thought about how much of a historical tragedy that statues from ancient civilisations had the same fate. They’re a part of history.

 

[DesertRoo]

This is a topic that I did a complete 180 on after the BLM protesters pulling down statues, at first I was all for it but then I thought about how much of a historical tragedy that statues from ancient civilisations had the same fate. They’re a part of history.

Yes, the human race has a dark history, it’s not all rainbows and lullaby's like some want to make out..
we have to take the good with the bad or we’re doomed to repeat it..

 

[Val Keating]

Yes, the human race has a dark history, it’s not all rainbows and lullaby's like some want to make out..
we have to take the good with the bad or we’re doomed to repeat it..

The (very left) historian Mike Duncan being opposed to it at the time and it gave me pause to think about what they were essentially trying to do. Apparently they called it “Damnatio memoriae”

And believe me when Mike Duncan is saying the left is going to far, they’re going to far.

 

[B4Bear]

Yes, the human race has a dark history, it’s not all rainbows and lullaby's like some want to make out..
we have to take the good with the bad or we’re doomed to repeat it..

Stick it in a museum then.

 

[DesertRoo]

Stick it in a museum then.

Change the plaque, shifting them from the town centre or to a museum, all of these are reasonable suggestions.

But that’s completely different debate to abolishing them.

 

[DesertRoo]

Yeah you’re right, but it’s more complicated then that. Japan refused to surrender, killing thousands of people by continuing a war that they knew they had zero chance of winning. They had to be stopped. Once the war in the pacific became a war of attrition it was over for them, yet they continued to fight knowing that they could not win. So many Australian soldiers died fighting an enemy that refused to admit defeat.

What do you do in that situation, when there’s an option to end the war? Keep sending your people to die because an enemy won’t surrender or just force them to submit?

Truman didn’t order the bomb to stop a war with Japan, they were already defeated, they were ready to surrender.
he dropped it to warn off Stalin’s advance in Europe.

 

[Del191229]

You honestly haven’t thought very hard about this topic..
not all monuments/statues are a source of pride.. they are incredible important when taught within historical context.

This is the point Hyde was making. Where was the outrage when the Jimmy Savile statue was torn down

 

[Del191229]

Sperm whales in 19th century shared ship attack information

Whalers’ logbooks show rapid drop in strike rate in north Pacific due to changes in cetacean behaviour

www.theguardian.com

This makes some big claims

 

[DesertRoo]

This is the point Hyde was making. Where was the outrage when the Jimmy Savile statue was torn down

That’s Sir James Wilson Vincent Savile OBE KCSG, and if I had my way that statue would be sitting out the front of Buc Pal.. a nice reminder to everyone about the power structure he represented.

 

[Snake_Baker]