Autopsy Records vs Top 8

[philohk]

I've done this for the last couple of years and I think it's kind of interesting - it usually throws up a few unexpected things. And for those tipping, I think (but I cbf checking) that last year it only got one finals tip wrong. EDIT: it got two wrong - Geelong in the QF and Geelong in the PF.

First, here's the top 8 vs each other:


Note: unlike last year when the number of games was even, this year it's ranked by 1. higher points 2. fewer games played 3. %. This is why Port is above the Dogs and Geelong.

Couple of notes:
- Not having followed their season closely, the Swans and GWS are the surprises for mine.
- There are a lot of middling records! I thought Geelong and the Dogs would be better.
- Essendon had a similar record in 2019 (2-7 and clear last) and was beaten comfortably by 5th (West Coast).

So if this holds for tipping, here's what we're looking at:

Week 1
Port Adelaide defeats Geelong
Melbourne defeats Brisbane
Sydney defeats GWS
Bulldogs defeat Essendon

Week 2
Sydney defeats Geelong
Brisbane defeats Bulldogs

Week 3
Melbourne defeats Sydney
Brisbane defeats Port Adelaide

Week 4
Melbourne defeats Brisbane

Those who think % is a good indicator note that the GF would be between the two teams with the highest %.

Now the league vs top 8:



If you've been beaten by Hawthorn, congratulations - you're a good team! Because we sure as f**k don't beat anybody else. Also:
- In 2019, Melbourne was dead last at 0-11. In 2020, the Swans were 0-8.
- This is the first time since 2019 (when I started doing it) that every team has taken premiership points off a team in the 8.
- Picking on Essendon again here as 14th is pretty dire, but it shows if you beat the teams below you, you generally play finals.
- Essendon was also the only team below 8th in 2019, replaced in this eight by Fremantle.

Let's see what suprises September throws up.

 

[RUNVS]

Geelong's win record is worse than I would have thought.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

So the only team that won less games against the top 8 than the 8th placed team, won the wooden spoon.

 

[Call Me Cake]

Now do one for 2016.

 

[raskolnikov]

Our record is pretty bad. However we lost to Melbourne, Sydney (x2), and GWS by less than 2 goals (also GWS 1x13). Also our games against Port and Brisbane were early in the season before we got any kind of a roll on. The loss to Geelong was the only blow out defeat which occurred after April.

 

[raskolnikov]

So the only team that won less games against the top 8 than the 8th placed team, won the wooden spoon.

It's great how much it burns you that we're playing finals. Imagine we win on Sunday. You might just self combust.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

It's great how much it burns you that we're playing finals. Imagine we win on Sunday. You might just self combust.

I’m totally burning right now. So hot.

 

[HairyO]

The interesting thing is Essendon lost 8 games against the other top 8 and only won one, who they play in the final. So you could also see them favourite this week only to lose next week.

 

[port_adelaide_1870]

Feel like this thread was created just so the hawthorn fan could point out that hawthorn have beaten top 8 teams

 

[HairyO]

Feel like this thread was created just so the hawthorn fan could point out that hawthorn have beaten top 8 teams

Unless when he said he has done it the last few years he actually had done it the last few years.

I dont think our record in 2019 or 2020 was anything special. Could also do a "recent form - since the bye" review. We are probably top 5 or 6 there too.

 

[Macca18]

Amazing to see that the 8th placed team has the 8th best record (amongst the top 8 teams) heading into the finals.

Also quite amazingly, the top team have the best record against the other top 8 sides.

And the best bit about the thread starter? We’ll also point out how our own team (who finished 14th) had a very good record against the teams in the 8. Well done on this achievement.

There is definitely some use to these statistics, but in a year where so many games had to change venues due to COVID restrictions and again another (!) year of AFL inequality where some teams only played each other once and others twice… do we ever get a truly accurate picture? For example - Brisbane played Geelong at both Kardinia Park & Gabba, yet only played Port Adelaide at the Gabba. They played Melbourne once… at Spotless Stadium.

Yep, gives us some information but also full of holes.

 

[Rusty Brookes]

Great analysis but the one thing I would say - how predicative is early season form versus late season form. So for instance, if the Bombers are in crappy form early on, the numbers get skewed. The Bulldogs looked cooked against everyone so I'd tip the Bombers over the Dogs especially as they beat them three weeks ago.

That being said, you've laid out a great pathway to follow.

 

[Handsome_Jack]

"BuT POrTs dOeSn't BeaT tOP 8 tEAms'

All joking aside, good post OP and handy statistics to have going into the finals. GWS or Sydney could ruin a team or two's plans for sure

 

[Ambrosia]

Think the Dons would have pinched one against GWS or Sydney if we didn’t have to hub in Queensland for two weeks.

 

[TheWhiteRhino]

Think the Dons would have pinched one against GWS or Sydney if we didn’t have to hub in Queensland for two weeks.

Pinched a game against one of the two teams that has basically been in a hub since June?

 

[Ambrosia]

Pinched a game against one of the two teams that has basically been in a hub since June?

Yeah every other side had that advantage against you so I don’t see how Essendon not having it is irrelevant.

 

[Costanza_]

The Swans have had a strange year. Hard to believe that a team that got belted by Hawthorn, the Suns and St Kilda ended up with 15 wins.

Even the 3 losses against other top 8 sides were close. Got done by GWS by 2 points, and then extremely competetive away losses against Melbourne and Port who ended up 1 and 2.

I guess chalk it up to the inconsistency of a young team. Good sign for finals that we seem to get up for big games.

Not so great a sign that we play GWS in week 1...

 

[00Stinger]

"BuT POrTs dOeSn't BeaT tOP 8 tEAms'

All joking aside, good post OP and handy statistics to have going into the finals. GWS or Sydney could ruin a team or two's plans for sure

No one said that, everyone said Port can't beat the top 4 teams which is factual

Having said that no one will give a **** about that if you come out and beat the Cats on Friday night

 

[Call Me Cake]

So the team that has beaten five top 8 teams, also lost to shithouse bottom 8 teams and managed to finish 14th overall?

Where is the point?

If beating top 8 teams makes you good, then you shouldn't also be losing to shit ones. Can't have your cake and eat it too.

The difference among the actual good sides - is that it isn't beating the top 8 teams that made them good - it's because they were consistently on winning streaks/good run on form regardless of who was fronting them.

 

[The Tilt]

So the team that has beaten five top 8 teams, also lost to shithouse bottom 8 teams and managed to finish 14th overall?

Where is the point?

If beating top 8 teams makes you good, then you shouldn't also be losing to sh*t ones. Can't have your cake and eat it too.

The difference among the actual good sides - is that it isn't beating the top 8 teams that made them good - it's because they were consistently on winning streaks/good run on form regardless of who was fronting them.

I don't normally make a habit out of defending Hawthorn supporters, but the OP didn't say that Hawthorn were a good team. He/she just noted that they've had a good record against top 8 teams.

 

[Call Me Cake]

I don't normally make a habit out of defending Hawthorn supporters, but the OP didn't say that Hawthorn were a good team. He/she just noted that they've had a good record against top 8 teams.

The results of his own team contradicts his own point.

 

[Duskfire]

So the team that has beaten five top 8 teams, also lost to shithouse bottom 8 teams and managed to finish 14th overall?

Where is the point?

If beating top 8 teams makes you good, then you shouldn't also be losing to sh*t ones. Can't have your cake and eat it too.

The difference among the actual good sides - is that it isn't beating the top 8 teams that made them good - it's because they were consistently on winning streaks/good run on form regardless of who was fronting them.

I don't think it matters at all. It is an interesting comparison, but I do think people put too much stock into record against other finalists, especially since there are so many variables and form changes throughout the season. AFL history is full of teams who have a poor record against the rest of the top 8 going on to win the Grand Final.

 

[Call Me Cake]

I don't think it matters at all. It is an interesting comparison, but I do think people put too much stock into record against other finalists, especially since there are so many variables and form changes throughout the season. AFL history is full of teams who have a poor record against the rest of the top 8 going on to win the Grand Final.

I think it's more about consistency. Not dropping the games you're expected to beat (against the sides below you). If you can sow that up first and foremost, then great. The fact that you pip a few top 8 teams, but are clearly headed nowhere (like Hawthorn), matters nothing. You're bound to lose a few games, and usually those will come at the cost of playing those rightfully above you at any given time.

 

[Inspecta Gadget]

Hawthorn are great against top 8 teams.

Which one are they playing this week?

 

[philohk]

While I love potting Essendon as much as any right-thinking person should, that wasn't the intent of the thread As I said, I started posting these in 2019 just out of curiosity (check my history), and there was definitely no brag factor for the Hawks last year...

FWIW, as was pointed out earlier, I don't expect the eighth-placed side to have a great record against the other finalists. And I think it bodes well for Essendon's future that they went 10-3 against sides out of the 8. You need to beat the weaker sides consistently if you want to play finals. We didn't. But the thread is not about us