It'd be pretty simple. Have a look at the pick number of the first draftee from each TAC team, first two from SA and first two from WA. Then have a look at the first four from a combination of NT, Tasmania, NSW, ACT and Queensland. Average it out over a decade. Find that the average for most of the first lot is probably less than pick 20 (barring some of the worse TAC teams). The average of the last lot is probably around pick 40 to 50. Imagine you're giving a free first round pick to all teams from footy states and only a second to third rounder to the other teams. QED.
Funny you should say that, have been working on this...
For the purposes of this exercise, I’ve assigned each of the ten Victorian clubs and Sydney and Brisbane directly with a team from the TAC Cup. Sydney and Brisbane would have also had a priority pick directly from NSW and Qld.
For the teams from SA and the WA, they have been allocated teams from the SANFL and WAFL respectively.
As for the Gold Coast and GWS, well they throw a spanner in the works and as such, perhaps priority picks from NT (for GC) and Tasmania (for GWS) would even things up slightly.
Who finishes higher on the ladder between the two NSW clubs and the two Qld clubs would determine the order for their priority picks from the two states in question (NSW and Qld)
Perhaps also, a pick from the best of the rest might even things up too, at least until these regions have developed sufficiently to provide adequate “local” picks.
Wasn’t entirely sure how the club allocations would work. Victorians and West Australians let me know if these club assignments are kind of on the money
Anyhow, other than the Fremantle anomaly, this actually seems to me to be pretty even across the board... Also, the talent that would slip through to the draft proper is still pretty darn good and I can’t see how the integrity of the draft itself would really be upset.
Adelaide - South Adelaide, Glenelg, Sturt, Norwood
Port Adelaide - Port Adelaide, Centrals, West Adelaide, North Adelaide, Woodville/West Torrens
Fremantle - Swan Districts, East Fremantle, South Fremantle, Peel Thunder and Claremont
West Coast - East Perth, West Perth, Perth, Subiaco
North Ballarat - Saint Kilda
Gippsland - Bulldogs
Dandenong - Hawthorn
Sandringham - Melbourne
Oakleigh - Carlton
Calder Cannons - North Melbourne
Geelong Falcons - Geelong
Western Jets - Collingwood
Northern Knights - Essendon
Eastern Ranges - Richmond
Bendigo - Brisbane
Murray Bushrangers - Sydney
These are the players each team would have received since 2005.
Adelaide (aligned with South Adelaide, Glenelg, Sturt and Norwood)
In - Darren Pfieffer (17), Bryce Gibbs (1), Tom McNamara (66), Ryan Schoenmaker (16), Jack Trengove (2), Sam Day (3), Chad Winguard (6)
Average Pick No: 16
Top Ten Picks: 4
Brisbane (aligned with Bendigo and first choice of best of Queensland)
In - N/A, Joel Selwood (7), Robbie Tarrant (15), N/A, Dustin Martin (3), Ariel Steinberg (31), Sam Kerridge (27
Average Pick No: 17
In via Queensland pick (up to 2009): Courtney Dempsey (19), David Armitage (9), Brendan Whitecross (29), Dayne Beams (29), Jason Tutt (31)
Average Pick No: 23
Total Top Ten Picks: 3
Carlton (aligned with Oakleigh)
In - Marc Murphy (1), Todd Goldstein (37), N/A, Luke Shuey (18), Jamie MacMillan (37) Andrew Gaff (4), Dom Tyson (3)
Average Pick No: 17
Top Ten Picks: 3
Collingwood (aligned with Western Jets)
In - Jake Edwards (36), Bachar Houli (42), Callan Ward (19), Jayden Post (26), Jack Fitzpatrick (50), N/A, Will Hoskin-Elliot (4)
Average Pick No: 30
Top Ten Picks: 1
Essendon (aligned with Northern Knights)
In - Ben McKinley (29), Daniel Currie (49), Matthew Kreuzer (1), Michael Hurley (5), Sam Grimley (39), Josh Caddy (7), Billy Longer (8)
Average Pick No: 20
Top Ten Picks: 4
Fremantle (aligned with Swan Districts, East Fremantle, South Fremantle, Peel Thunder and Claremont)
In - Jack Kennedy (3), Scott Gumbleton (2), Chris Masten (3), Nic Naitanui (2), Anthony Morabito (4), David Swallow (1), Stephen Coniglio (2)
Average Pick No: 2
Top Ten Picks: 7
Geelong (aligned with Geelong Falcons)
In - Shaun Higgins (11), Travis Boak (5), Lachlan Henderson (8), Luke Rounds (46), Ben Cunnington (5), Billy Smedts (15), Taylor Adams (13)
Average Pick No: 15
Top Ten Picks: 2
Hawthorn (aligned with Dandenong)
In - Nathan Jones (12), Andrejs Everitt (11), Jarrad Grant (5), Thomas Gillies (33), Tom Scully (1), Tomas Lynch (11), Matt Buntine (5)
Average Pick No: 11
Top Ten Picks: 3
Melbourne (aligned with Sandrignham)
In - Robert Warnock (42), Chris Dawes (28), N/A, Jack Watts (1), Jack Gunston (29), Ben Jacobs (16), Liam Sumner (10)
Average Pick No: 21
Top Ten Picks: 2
North Melbourne (aligned with Calder Cannons)
In - Richard Douglas (16), Jarryd Allen (59), Addam Maric (21), Nackson Trengove (22), Jake Melksham (10), Dion Prestia (9), Barandon Ellis (15)
Average Pick No: 22
Port Power (aligned with Port Adelaide, Central Districts, West Adelaide, North Adelaide and Woodville/West Torrens)
In - Shannon Hurn (13), Paul Stewart (23), Brad Ebert (13), Hamish Hartlett (4), Daniel Menzell (17), Jared Polec (5), Cameron Ellis-Yolmen (64)
Average Pick No: 20
Top Ten Picks: 2
Richmond (aligned with Eastern Ranges)
In - Matthew Spangher (34), N/A, Matthew Lobbe (16), Sam Blease (17), Andrew Moore (9), Kieran Harper (27), Jonathan Patton (1)
Average Pick No: 17
Top Ten Picks: 2
Saint Kilda (aligned with North Ballarat)
In - Stephen Owen (35), Nathan Brown (10), Clayton Hinkley (24), Nic Suabn (24), David Astbury (35), Lucas Cook (12), Sebastian Rowe (25)
Average Pick No: 24
Top Ten Picks: 1
Swans (aligned with Murray Bushrangers and first choice of best of NSW)
In - Marcus Drum (10), Ben Reid (8), Ben McEvoy (9), Jack Ziebell (9), Sam Reid (38), Shaun Ately (17), Patrick Wearden (47)
Average Pick No: 20
In via NSW pick (up to 2009) - Dylan Addison (27), N/A, Taylor Walker (*75 SP), N/A, N/A, Trent Stubbs (77), Jarrod Witts (67)
Average Pick No: 62 (though skewed via scholarship picks)
Top Ten Picks: 4
West Coast (aligned with East Perth, West Perth, Perth, Subiaco)
In - Jarrad Oakley Nicholls (8), Matthew Leunberger (4), David Myers (6), Stephen Hill (3), Mitch Duncan (28), Reece Conca (6), Fraser McInnes (28)
Average Pick No: 12
Top Ten Picks: 5
Western Bulldogs (aligned with Gippsland)
In - Dale Thomas (2), Lachlan Hansen (3), Myke Cook (38), Nicholas Heyne (48), John Butcher (8), Dyson Heppell (8), Sam Docherty (12)
Average Pick No: 17
Top Ten Picks: 4
Top 2 Picks from Tasmania (from 2005) - Grant Birchall (14), Mitchell Thorp (6), Tom Collier (25), Liam Jones (32), Mitch Robinson (40), Marcus Davies (43), Ryan Harwood (47), Josh Green (32), Jeremy Howe (33), Henry Schade (24), Jimmy Webster (42)
Average Pick No: 31
Top 2 Picks from NT (from 2005) - Nathan Djerrkura (25), Cyril Rioli (12), Marlon Motlop (28), Stephen Motlop (39), Troy Taylor (51), Zephaniah Skinner (88)
Average Pick No: 41
Best of the Rest:
2005 - Xavier Ellis (3), Scott Pendlebury (5), Beau Dowler (6), Patrick Ryder (7)
2006 - James Frwaley (12), Jack Riewoldt (13 - Tassie Mariners), James Sellar (14), Daniel O’keefe (15)
2007 - Trent Cotchin (2), Cale Morton (4), Rhys Palmer (7), Patrick Dangerfield (10)
2008 - Chris Yarran (6), Daniel Rich (7), Tyron Vickery (8), Phil Davis (10)
2009 - Gary Rohan (6), Brad Shephard (7), Jordan Gysberts (11), Kane Lucas (12)
2010 - Harley Bennell (2), Daniel Gorringe (10), Seb Tape (13), Brodie Smith (14)
2011 - Nick Haynes (7), Adam Tomlinson (9), Toby Greene (11), Devon Smith (14)