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Reilly hypothetical

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Motown

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I find myself at odds with some others and wish to pose a hypothetical trade scenario to gauge the reaction of Adelaide supporters and how you value Reilly.

On a scale of 1 to 5 where 1=ridiculously stupid, 3=about fair, 5=where do I sign!, how would you react to an offer of Reilly for pick 12?

Cheers
 
1=ridiculously stupid

Nothing less than a top 5 pick I'd say. For this draft anyway. I wouldn't like our chances of picking a player of Radar's ability from pick 12 again.
 
It is probably about a 2.

Reilly was drafted around 12 and has been a success, so you would never just accept that pick back again and take the risk that the kid you choose won't develop as well.
 

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Motown said:
I find myself at odds with some others and wish to pose a hypothetical trade scenario to gauge the reaction of Adelaide supporters and how you value Reilly.

On a scale of 1 to 5 where 1=ridiculously stupid, 3=about fair, 5=where do I sign!, how would you react to an offer of Reilly for pick 12?

Cheers
Click to expand...

1.

there is nothing in it for us in that deal.
 
I take 0 for you're out of your ****ing mind

Radar took a while, but has come on in leaps and bounds could potentially be our next captain. Given our current circumstances in our squad I wouldnt even trade a top 5 pick for him at the moment.

Players that are worth first round picks are only traded when they need a change of scenery. For Hawthorn to offer pick 12 means that in their assessment at pick 12 there will be no midfield players close to the value or ability of Reilly. So if Reilly doesnt want to go back to Melbourne the club would be stupid to send a required player to another club while not receiving something equal in value in return.
 
Motown said:
I find myself at odds with some others and wish to pose a hypothetical trade scenario to gauge the reaction of Adelaide supporters and how you value Reilly.

On a scale of 1 to 5 where 1=ridiculously stupid, 3=about fair, 5=where do I sign!, how would you react to an offer of Reilly for pick 12?

Cheers
Click to expand...

Motown, a lot of supporters over-estimate the value of their players, Adelaide supporters are some of the worst. I think it stems from the "one town, two teams, one paper situation".

If he decided he wanted to leave the club I'd imagine that history suggests that he's worth pick 12 and your second rounder.

This is a moot discussion though as he is a required player and he wants to stay, so will not trade him unless something extraordinary happens (i.e. Pavlich).
 
pext said:
Motown, a lot of supporters over-estimate the value of their players, Adelaide supporters are some of the worst. I think it stems from the "one town, two teams, one paper situation".

If he decided he wanted to leave the club I'd imagine that history suggests that he's worth pick 12 and your second rounder.

This is a moot discussion though as he is a required player and he wants to stay, so will not trade him unless something extraordinary happens (i.e. Pavlich).
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I think a lot of supporters of ALL clubs over-estimate the value of their players and I can't see how we are the worst at it!

Reilly is a required player for a reason - he's damned good - and getting better! Van Berlo is probably also at this same level. These are two players that would top the required player list I would think.
 
pext said:
Motown, a lot of supporters over-estimate the value of their players, Adelaide supporters are some of the worst. I think it stems from the "one town, two teams, one paper situation".

If he decided he wanted to leave the club I'd imagine that history suggests that he's worth pick 12 and your second rounder.

This is a moot discussion though as he is a required player and he wants to stay, so will not trade him unless something extraordinary happens (i.e. Pavlich).
Click to expand...

All Clubs over-value their players, and under-value others.

I wouldn't trade Reilly fullstop. and if we had to, it'd be for a top 5 pick.

Hypothetical for the Victorians - if Dal Santo was to be traded, what would you expect him to be worth?
 
pext said:
If he decided he wanted to leave the club I'd imagine that history suggests that he's worth pick 12 and your second rounder.
Click to expand...

that isn't true at all. history suggests that there is weak drafts and there is vey strong drafts. draft picks decline in value somewhat in weaker drafts after pick 10 ;)
 
pext said:
Motown, a lot of supporters over-estimate the value of their players, Adelaide supporters are some of the worst. I think it stems from the "one town, two teams, one paper situation".

If he decided he wanted to leave the club I'd imagine that history suggests that he's worth pick 12 and your second rounder.

This is a moot discussion though as he is a required player and he wants to stay, so will not trade him unless something extraordinary happens (i.e. Pavlich).
Click to expand...

Mate, every club overrates its players and underrates everyone else's. Especially at this time of year when it's like a footy version of the Myer stocktake sale at Christmas and everyone wants a bargain. Hell, some on the Bulldogs board think we'd be the winners in a trade of Hudson for a 4th rounder.

Your club (whoever that may be - you're too shy to list it) is exactly the same - no better or worse than Adelaide.
 

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Motown said:
I find myself at odds with some others and wish to pose a hypothetical trade scenario to gauge the reaction of Adelaide supporters and how you value Reilly.

On a scale of 1 to 5 where 1=ridiculously stupid, 3=about fair, 5=where do I sign!, how would you react to an offer of Reilly for pick 12?

Cheers
Click to expand...

Put it this way, how would you feel if you were offered pick 12 for Sam Mitchell?

He's the closest player I could find in value in your midfield (Reilly is well short of Luke Hodge).
 

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All of this talk of a "weak" draft and pick 12 being worth peanuts only 12 hours after I said that wasn't necessarily the case in this draft.

For the record, I agree with the overall sentiment. Pick 12 for Reilly is mental, but it's not because of this draft. Pick 12 for Reilly in last years Super Draft would have been mental too.
 
PrideOf said:
Mate, every club overrates its players and underrates everyone else's. Especially at this time of year when it's like a footy version of the Myer stocktake sale at Christmas and everyone wants a bargain. Hell, some on the Bulldogs board think we'd be the winners in a trade of Hudson for a 4th rounder.

Your club (whoever that may be - you're too shy to list it) is exactly the same - no better or worse than Adelaide.
Click to expand...

he/she is actually a crows supporter strangely enough
 
GlaCial said:
And your point is what exactly?
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His comment is pretty much spot on!

People like to represent player's worth in terms of a draft pick or picks and they seem to estimate that Reilly is say hypothetically worth pick 12. The questions that no one asks is what value does pick 12 represent in this draft.

As I said in another thread, in one year you get Chris Judd with pick 3. A year before you get Luke Livingstone. In one year you get guns in the top 10, the year before, you wouldn't piss on anyone in the top 10.

The value of actual draft pick flactuates each and every year and its not fixed as people seem to think. A top 5 pick this year wouldn't be worth a top 5 pick last year.

If you are trading anything of value this year, then you better get a pick inside 10 because you are not getting a fair value back. In this year's draft Reilly would be worth a fair bit more than pick 12.
 
If you look at the 2005 draft, there really is bugger all after Richard Douglas at pick 16.

Matthew Stokes really is the only one that has played somewhat consistent AFL footy.
 

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