Roulette

Dec 25, 2004
16,044
8,936
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
It doesn't matter how many times the wheel has spun. You still have 1/37 of 10 landing.

There is no such thing as "this number is due" in roulette.

If you sat there for 35 spins and number 10 had not come up. And you place your bet. You are at no point at any advantage.
As someone who walks up to the table and places a bet on number 10 without knowing any hisotical relevance has the exact same chance as you at winning.

And even if the spin lands on 10 on the 36th spin. It doesn't mean anything. And it also doesn't mean that it is more less likely to land on 10 the next time around.

I can see where you are getting confused now. What you say it totally correct but I never said that you should wait 35 rolls and then put your bet on a number that didn't come up.

That would be stupid.

What I meant was, you pick a number and stick with it.

For example I put my money on 10.

Spin 1: 4 (loss)
Spin 2: 29 (loss)
Spin 3: 24...

For each spin I keep my money on 10.

What are the odds that 10 will come up before I have had money on 35 spins? I'd say the odds are pretty good, as I have a 1 in 37 chance of getting a 10.

Now, obviously that isn't going to work long term because you're getting 35 shots at a 1/37 shot but it can work in the short term.
 

Oaksnaf

Club Legend
Mar 31, 2008
2,255
4
Australia
AFL Club
Hawthorn
If you enjoy playing that way.This may be of interest to you.

Code:
Bet #	Bet Size	Return	Profit	$$ spent
1	5	175	170	5
2	5	175	165	10
3	5	175	160	15
4	5	175	155	20
5	5	175	150	25
6	5	175	145	30
7	5	175	140	35
8	5	175	135	40
9	5	175	130	45
10	5	175	125	50
11	5	175	125	55
12	5	175	120	60
13	5	175	115	65
14	5	175	110	70
15	5	175	105	75
16	5	175	100	80
17	5	175	95	85
18	5	175	90	90
19	5	175	85	95
20	5	175	80	100
21	5	175	75	105
22	5	175	70	110
23	5	175	65	115
24	5	175	60	120
25	5	175	55	125
26	5	175	50	130
27	5	175	45	135
28	5	175	40	140
29	5	175	35	145
30	5	175	30	150
31	10	350	190	160
32	10	350	180	170
33	10	350	170	180
34	10	350	160	190
35	10	350	150	200
36	10	350	140	210
37	10	350	130	220
38	10	350	120	230
39	10	350	110	240
40	10	350	100	250
41	10	350	90	260
42	10	350	80	270
43	10	350	70	280
44	10	350	60	290
45	10	350	50	300
46	20	700	380	320
47	20	700	360	340
48	20	700	340	360
49	20	700	320	380
50	20	700	300	400
51	20	700	280	420
52	20	700	260	440
53	20	700	240	460
54	20	700	220	480
55	20	700	200	500
56	20	700	180	520
57	20	700	160	540
58	20	700	140	560
59	20	700	120	580
60	20	700	100	600
61	30	1050	420	630
62	30	1050	390	660
63	30	1050	360	690
64	30	1050	330	720
65	30	1050	300	750
66	30	1050	270	780
67	30	1050	240	810
68	30	1050	210	840
69	30	1050	180	870
70	30	1050	150	900
71				
72				
73				
74				
75				
76				
77				
78				
79				
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
 

CranktheAnchors

All Australian
Dec 4, 2006
628
6
Docklands
AFL Club
Fremantle
Other Teams
Water Skiing
It doesn't matter how many times the wheel has spun. You still have 1/37 of 10 landing.

There is no such thing as "this number is due" in roulette.

If you sat there for 35 spins and number 10 had not come up. And you place your bet. You are at no point at any advantage. As someone who walks up to the table and places a bet on number 10 without knowing any hisotical relevance has the exact same chance as you at winning.

And even if the spin lands on 10 on the 36th spin. It doesn't mean anything. And it also doesn't mean that it is more less likely to land on 10 the next time around.

It's called the Random Hypothesis Theory. Meaning each spin is unique to the last and that they have no correlation. I see what your saying though if you calculated your chances over many spins. All strategies still give the house a slight edge and is not profitable in the long run.

I am interested in having a substantial bank and trying the doubling up. But I can't afford to lose that much and odds say it will happen eventually.
 

Oaksnaf

Club Legend
Mar 31, 2008
2,255
4
Australia
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I cannot stress enough that doubling in roulette is the quickest way to lose your money. And that you can only win what your original stake was at the start of the sequence.
 

Almost Famous

Team Captain
Feb 25, 2007
422
0
Im Around
AFL Club
Collingwood
Mine is simple
Stay the f*^$ away from the Casino, its a waste of money & time even going there.
The only times I've ever put money down there was over the bars at the old night clubs.

This is good advice. There is a reason Crown Casino is a lavish, overly extravagant spectacular complex and it isnt because people win money there. Blackjack is the only game that can be beaten and even then only for around 2% of turnover and only for a short time before they stop you playing. If you're trying to beat roulette or any other game you are wasting your time. I hope you realise this before your bank balance takes too much of a hit.
 

Oaksnaf

Club Legend
Mar 31, 2008
2,255
4
Australia
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Blackjack is only made famous due to the cardcounting experts who made millions of dollars with their team of players as they had found and understood how to play with the one half of a percent edge that they had. Winning large amounts of money in short periods of time and definately not at 2% POT.

If you can find an edge in anything, flipping a coin, throwing the dice in craps, roulette, pokies, horse racing etc then you can win on that form of gambling long term.

The problem is, knowing what is an edge and knowing how to exploit it once you understand it.

Otherwise you are merely gambling riding the ups and the downs with no real picture of how you are going.

But to say it CANNOT be done. Is 100% wrong. Because it has. And it will continue to be done. Even on roulette.
 
Apr 14, 2007
1,523
187
Melbourne
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Other Teams
SJ Sharks, Jays
I cannot stress enough that doubling in roulette is the quickest way to lose your money. .

on a wheel 0-36 ,you have a 18/37 chance to double,

And that you can only win what your original stake was at the start of the sequence.

no problem with that
 
Jun 18, 2003
1,536
1,183
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
But what are the chances of getting a 10, for example, if you spun the wheel 35 times?
The odds of getting a 10 (or any other specific number) at least once over the course of 35 spins are equal to 1 minus the odds of a 10 NOT coming up 35 successive times.
The odds of a 10 NOT coming up on ONE spin are 37/38 (assuming a double-zero wheel). We would need this to happen 35 times in a row. Thus, the odds of a 10 NOT coming up 35 times in a row =
(37/38)^35 = 0.39218.
The odds of 10 coming up at least once over the course of 35 spins are therefore
1 - 0.39218 = 0.60678

So for each time you attempt your 35-spin bet, you have a 60.7% chance of winning from the outset. The amount you win will depend on how many spins it takes, but if you lose, you lose a total of 35 x $2.50 = $87.50

_________

The bet red-black and then double when you lose strategy is quite similar to this. Say you decide to bet on Black. With a table min of $5 and a max of $500, you can double as per the following:
spin 1 - $5
spin 2 - $10
spin 3 - $20
spin 4 - $40
spin 5 - $80
spin 6 - $160
spin 7 - $320
spin 8 - $640 - this is more than the table max, so you can't make this bet.

You can therefore only bet on the outcome of up to 7 spins, and the total amount you may have to risk is:
$5 + $10 + $20 + $40 + $80 + $160 + $320 = $635

So, what you are effectively doing when you play this strategy is betting $635 that black will come up once over the course of the next 7 spins. When it does come up, your profit is $5 irrespective of which of the 7 spins turns up black. When it comes up, you start again, betting $5 and doubling when you lose.

Is this a good way of betting?
The odds of black NOT coming up on a single spin are 20 / 38.
The odds of black NOT coming up 7 times in a row are:
(20/38)^7 = 0.011187.
This means the odds of black coming up at least once in 7 spins:
1 - .011187 = 0.988812.

So you have a 98.9 percent chance of winning, but remember, you are risking $635 to win $5; only a 0.787% profit (you'd want at least 1.11% profit for a win to make it worthwhile).
So it's not a good bet in the long run, although at least you'll probably get to spend a long time at the casino!
 
Jun 18, 2003
1,536
1,183
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
But to say it CANNOT be done. Is 100% wrong. Because it has. And it will continue to be done. Even on roulette.
Probably a fair call, but like everything else in life, it requires a lot of time and effort. For example, to perfect the skill of card counting requires many hours of practice.

Personally, I went for the uni degree --> professional occupation path and try only to have fun when I bet at the casino :)
 

Oaksnaf

Club Legend
Mar 31, 2008
2,255
4
Australia
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Wasn't there a movie about Tommy Hyland and card counting at blackjack? Or something based on his exploits?

Or closer to home. David Walsh in Tasmania. But there isn't much that gets said about him apart from his rather large private art collection.


In terms of your calculations they might be mathamatically correct, but the relation to the real world doesn't hold any value unfortunately. If only we all had 98% chance of winning at roulette.

No staking plan. No sequence betting will beat roulette.
 

Juddtastic

Team Captain
Jul 6, 2007
416
2
Adelaide
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Devin Harris, Scull Murphy
Myself and a couple of mates have used the doubling and sequence strategy many times. At the start we were walking away with something like %300-700 profit of what we originally laid down but as of late we've been brought back to earth and have had a few nights of big losses...

From my experience it all comes down to luck and how many rolls in a row end up on the 2 to 1 were betting against like red over black for instance.

The most consecutive rolls of the same 2 to 1 odd i've ever seen is 10 which by then we'd lost as much as any1 would be willing to lose for a night.
 

Oaksnaf

Club Legend
Mar 31, 2008
2,255
4
Australia
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Juddtastic, I hope you find a better way of gambling if your looking for long term winnings. Maybe doubling up on odds on horses (select ones of course) and stopping after 5 successive wins. You can win if your good at it, rather than just relying on luck.

One of the strangest things happened on the table I was playing on last night at the casino. A lady to my right had landed $10 on the number and her chips with three blacks were pushed towards here. She didn't seem to initially acknowledge that she had won and obviously didn't know colour she was (this was her first bet on the table). And seemingly assumed that someone else was the colour green and had infact won that amount.

So of she trotted and she never came back.

About half an hour later after some effort to find the lady, they cut the cash and the casino got back the money it had initially lost.
 

Ferris_rules

Club Legend
Suspended
Aug 26, 2007
2,259
5
in a House, normally.
AFL Club
Adelaide
Taz. Your mate can't be too smart.

Doubling your bet on a colour is perhaps one of the most known illogical ways of gambling roulette.

Think about it this way.

Bet 1 $10 lose
Bet 2 $20 lose
Bet 3 $40 lose
Bet 4 $80 lose
Bet 5 $160 lose
Bet 6 $320 WIN --- Return $640

You have so far gambled
10 + 20 +40 + 80 +160 +320 = $630 gambled

So
OUT 630
IN 640

I can think of better ways to risk $640 to win $10.


Priceless, very true I think the guy is naive and new to gambling !:rolleyes:

Anyways in relation to your comment, place $640 on the Hawks to make the 8 at $1.03 and you walk away (lol should) with about $20 ! :thumbsu:

If your risking that amount of money for $10 then you really do not understand the concepts of gambling. I expect to lose, but I hope to win more than I lose ! :rolleyes: :confused:
 
Jun 18, 2003
1,536
1,183
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
Wasn't there a movie about Tommy Hyland and card counting at blackjack? Or something based on his exploits?

Or closer to home. David Walsh in Tasmania. But there isn't much that gets said about him apart from his rather large private art collection.


In terms of your calculations they might be mathamatically correct, but the relation to the real world doesn't hold any value unfortunately. If only we all had 98% chance of winning at roulette.

No staking plan. No sequence betting will beat roulette.
Actually, those mathematical calculations ARE the real world of roulette. There is nothing theoretical about them. My point was that despite the 98% chance of winning (which is very real) the payout you receive isn't large enough to justify taking this bet over the longer term.
 

Oaksnaf

Club Legend
Mar 31, 2008
2,255
4
Australia
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Actually, those mathematical calculations ARE the real world of roulette. There is nothing theoretical about them. My point was that despite the 98% chance of winning (which is very real) the payout you receive isn't large enough to justify taking this bet over the longer term.
The 98% chance of winning is not real.

If you believe it is real. Good luck.
 
Jun 18, 2003
1,536
1,183
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
On 8th spin the chance of black coming up is 18/37. Not 98%.
Ahh - I see where you are coming from, and it tells me you've misunderstood my post.

I am saying that there is a 98% chance of black coming up at least once over the course of 7 spins.
I'm not saying that there's a 98% chance of it coming up on the seventh spin in particular.

See the difference?
 

Oaksnaf

Club Legend
Mar 31, 2008
2,255
4
Australia
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I know what your saying. But it has absolutely no relevance to playing roulette. So I don't understand why you would want to go down that path.
 
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