Autopsy Round 11, 2024: Melbourne v St.Kilda

[gringo2011]

Yet again it was team failure and no individuals should be singled out. Whatever Lyon is trying to do, is clearly not being communicated to the playing group- the body language of the group is sh*t. It has been many years since I've seen so many good Saint players go backwards a season after making finals.

Probably only Marshall looks set for the AA long list. Hill at a stretch but those outside runners often get left out for gun mids.DSo many players have been injured and out of form.


Crouch- best mid last year-injured and straight out
Steele second best mid- great early- injured and been okay
Sinclair- off no preseason had a big drop off.
Marshall gun last year- probably equal this year
Wood best wingman last year and close top AA quality- injured and come back 20% off
Nas- best kid we've had in 20 years last year- 10% off this year
Butler- best pressure forward last year- injured missing
Snags- top goal kicker last year. Missed 3 games through suspension not getting supply
Hill- probably the only player to have improved on last year
Battle- pretty much identical to 2023
Howard- worse
Wilkie- struggling to replicate his AA year under more pressure

Of the kids Owens, Phillipou, Caminiti, Sharman etc all gone backwards under more pressure.

Lost Gresham our third highest score assist player who could go on ball or play small forward and replaced him with Bonner another rebound small defender.

Also lost Webster for a long time and Membrey and Ross are both struggling to keep up with the pace. King hasn't managed to string any continuity together for 2 years.

 

[gringo2011]

Thank god someone else saw this. I've already read Seb libel this morning on the socials ("Cloggers") but in the last quarter Ross was still busting a gut while our "captain" was jogging. Seb's two lovely kicks to Higgins led to two goals as they were perfect assessments and executions. Max also benefitted from some occasional kicks to his advantage.

I'd rather have the blokes still working hard when eight goals down. To use the soccer parlance, give Seb or Rowan the armband. The two two-time B&F winners both had more of the ball yesterday and were both awful.

Neither are leader types. Battle is probably the most alpha personality at the club. Wilkie has leadership too. Has the ability to direct and earned respect over a long period too.

 

[gringo2011]

My other thoughts:

• I know it is very early, but how many more performances like that before I can legitimately voice "Brad Howard" concerns about Lance Collard? I'm yet to see a discernable AFL skill at the required level.
• On that, Melbourne were supposed to be weaker in tall defence yesterday with Lever out, so we make Sharman sub. An explanation to that piece of genius would be nice.
• There's been a lot of umpire criticism this year, but one of the few good things done this year is they have decided to let more stuff go in ruck contests and just let the big blokes compete. So why does Max Gawn get to play under last year's rules? Better than 1 in every 4 free kicks paid yesterday were paid to Max Gawn. He's a fantastic player, but it sure makes it easier to be fantastic when you get a ride like that.

Collard was always going to be a slow burn. Doubt you can tell anything yet. The supply inside 50 is horrible and we lack a system down there.

 

[gringo2011]

Some observations from the Ponsford Stand

Max King needs to work on his endurance tank big time. May blew him up and it was disturbing that it was only off a few 30m sprints. Max had hands on hips gulping in air for most of the last quarter. No wonder he played higher up the ground in the first half but then deep in the 2nd.

There are certain days that we need to play a tall, traditional ruckman. Yesterday was one of them. At least give our ordinary mids the odd chance of one down their throat. Play Marshall forward/2nd ruck on those days.

Results shout "game plan" to many. Spreading the ball out from the backline and the missed handballs and kicks from either them or the midfield on the next handball/kick. The poor option taken. I'm not sure how it screams game plan other than the low scoring across games.
I blame the players. A lot looked uninterested yesterday and seemed to crack the sads with each other. Give them the life-raft of blaming the coach though and I'm sure they'll jump at it to keep their job.

Lyon's game plan relies on saving energy by defending hard and then surging with brave ball use and opening up the game on our terms. It's just that we aren't skilled enough to do damage back the other way and yesterday 5 minutes of a lapse of concentration undid any chance of staying in the game. Lyon likes hardened soldiers because they don't have peaks and troughs.

Until we develop the kids and get a few more hardened bodies in we will fluctuate in form. We are a long way off a flag but not far off where we were last year but have to hope the kids coming through end up an upgrade on the players we already had available. Ideally we get a couple of players that become absolute dominant match winners. We look like we are doing the Port Adelaide model of building on the fly while staying relatively competitive.

 

[The Punter]

Neither are leader types. Battle is probably the most alpha personality at the club. Wilkie has leadership too. Has the ability to direct and earned respect over a long period too.

How about the basics like running a game out and not downing tools? Let's just get 22 players who do the job we pay them for first before worrying about who is vocal enough. In the last quarter yesterday the ball got turned over in front of the MCC and Ross and Steele were basically next to each other. Ross was back in defensive 50 before Steele got over half way.

But pick 3 will save us...

 

[Saintos The ITK]

Can we start opening the next barramundi thread a bit earlier please.

 

[Brian Oblivion]

Actually hate yacht rock, it's one of music's most ridiculous genres so great comedic value. Like prog rock and muzak had a baby that developed a sedative addiction. That said I bought a Jerry Rafferty album and it's actually very good.

That's the point Charlie Brown - it's a satirical series that hangs it on the likes of the Doobies, Hall & Oats, etc. mercilessly.

 

[Brian Oblivion]

Can we start opening the next barramundi thread a bit earlier please.

I'll start Saintos .......

 

[Yawkey way]

I get annoyed with the lack of effort and skill errors far more than I do with the results of the games. Imo it’s pretty simple, I have no idea what the coaching, development, recruiting staff want or need to see but clearly sitting where we are just winning games isn’t the priority.

It should be clear to anyone who’s followed the saints for more than 5 minutes that we need some major changes in personnel to move forward and actually contend. So if that’s dropping Membrey or promoting collard for a couple of games despite not earning his place then so be it.

If you’re tired of going nowhere and watching other teams win flags then this is how it looks so get used to it. If on the other hand you’re happy just being a chance to occasionally pinch a spot in the finals then yep sack ross and the board and demand we pick our best 22 every week.

 

[Sully111]

Collard was always going to be a slow burn. Doubt you can tell anything yet. The supply inside 50 is horrible and we lack a system down there.

Yep

Impossible to really judge our forwards right now.

 

[CursingFijian]

I think I’ve found an anthem we can sing before games.

 

[Ephemeral Hope]

Remember Steele was told he had to lose weight. Since then he’s struggled with injuries and his contested side

Ross’ decision that was

 

[luca77]

Remember Steele was told he had to lose weight. Since then he’s struggled with injuries and his contested side

His weight doesn't impact his dump kicks forward. One of the main culprits along with Ross and Marshall.
Watch his first possession of the 2nd q, no composure whatsoever. Ross attempts the same thing a few seconds later, then we finally get it in Nas's hands with King on a good lead and he kicks it out of bounds.

Then this drives me nuts shortly afterwards. King gets it wide, miles out of range, all the Melbourne players jogging into D50 to clog it up, and what are our guys doing? Jogging in after them instead of giving King an option to center the ball which can open up all kinds of entry options as well as the handpass to a running player. We can guess what happens with this kick.

 

[bergholt]

And this comes to selection integrity. I would have rathered the likes of Garcia and Hastie more time. They have shown more at both VFL and AFL level. We do Collard no favours.

It's positional. Playing Garcia or Hastie as small forward in the seniors does minimal amounts for their development. They need to play their proper positions to develop fast. Collard is at least a small forward, though I agree he clearly isn't getting much out of being dominated in the AFL.

 

[SaintWWodonga]

Gineb the Zebs win yesterday, what changes would you make?

Membrey for Caminiti
Hotton for Collard
Crouch for Ross
Ari for Bonner

Keeler and Clark close as well IMO

 

[jumperfan]

I pray to god Bonner is out this week and never returns. He seems to find the ball, but his decision making and ball use is horrific. Plus he seems terrified of body contact. I'd rather just see hastie play out the year in his position.

I wasn't expecting much from paddy Dow, and he has delivered just that. He was supposed to at least be a centre clearance king, but looks small and weak, pushed off the ball far to easy, and if you watch him in general play, he gets murdered on the spread.

Dow only looked OK at Carlton because he had Sam Walsh, Cripps and Cerra to make up for his shortcomings. Don't really think he was the right fit for us tbh.

 

[littlecreatures]

Don't get the Ross hate, and never have. He's no star, and has obvious limitations, but he's worked bloody hard to get every drop of "footballer" out of himself. Yes, we should be able to move past him; however, the fact that we can't shows just how insipid the rest of the team is. If the rest of the list - quite a few with a heap more natural ability than Seb has - were willing to put in the effort he has over his 200+ game career, then we would be a LOT better off.

Like you’ve alluded to, I just think the days are passed where we should be throwing away CBAs to Ross. He didn’t have one on the weekend, Sincs, Dow and Henry taking up more, but disappointing to see Chito and Nas not getting a shot.

I missed at least half the game, so would be interested to know what his role was and whether it was effective or note.

 

[littlecreatures]

Lyon's game plan relies on saving energy by defending hard and then surging with brave ball use and opening up the game on our terms. It's just that we aren't skilled enough to do damage back the other way and yesterday 5 minutes of a lapse of concentration undid any chance of staying in the game. Lyon likes hardened soldiers because they don't have peaks and troughs.

Until we develop the kids and get a few more hardened bodies in we will fluctuate in form. We are a long way off a flag but not far off where we were last year but have to hope the kids coming through end up an upgrade on the players we already had available. Ideally we get a couple of players that become absolute dominant match winners. We look like we are doing the Port Adelaide model of building on the fly while staying relatively competitive.

I love your analysis Gringo, but when do we return to being relatively competitive? This season has been an absolute slog I think back to rounds 1-2, like we even played with some gusto against Cats, our mids just got absolutely pummelled.

 

[The Punter]

A lot of stuff trying to pass as praise on here for Ross. 14 blokes should get dropped before him this weekend. Including the other two 2-time B&F winners at the club.

 

[gringo2011]

Dow only looked OK at Carlton because he had Sam Walsh, Cripps and Cerra to make up for his shortcomings. Don't really think he was the right fit for us tbh.

The way he plays works but he looks below average so far. Another Guy like Seb Ross who’s only benefit is experience

 

[gringo2011]

I love your analysis Gringo, but when do we return to being relatively competitive? This season has been an absolute slog I think back to rounds 1-2, like we even played with some gusto against Cats, our mids just got absolutely pummelled.

If we get all our players fit probably next season. Easier fixture, youth a year more experienced etc. sometimes the rollercoaster is better for the list if you’re just off the pace. The list is not ready to do much yet. Freo probably a similar position last year.

 

[Desperate saint]

Agree
No more game plan shyte
Unskilled fumbly poor decision makers to go
It’s the core of the kids coming through
Anyone else “gettable” for right price
Agree with whoever said there’s a reason we have a long list of unsigned…

Our game plan is similar to the Dees flood back get the turnover and slingshot forward - you need a strong physical presence and a strong 2 way midfield to be successful we have neither -nor to we have a stong marking presence down the line King has to take one side and Ro the other-

 

[gringo2011]

Our game plan is similar to the Dees flood back get the turnover and slingshot forward - you need a strong physical presence and a strong 2 way midfield to be successful we have neither -nor to we have a stong marking presence down the line King has to take one side and Ro the other-

We have a very small outside squad that don’t like physical contact and we lack guys that can break lines and deliver inside 50. Gresham was one that could. We need some harder contested bodies inside and to deliver the ball.

 

[Chuckie357]

The president needs to explain how the club intends to overcome the impossible challenge of bringing in talent when even with a high pick in a draft, GCS, GWS, Sydney and Brisbane have the first 25 picks on a yearly basis.

The president needs to explain the process and thinking behind turfing ratten and why they got lying back

 

[The_Steadier]

No point whinging about Ross he ain’t going anywhere, we need players that can execute basic skills

Yeah I'm no massive rtb fan.

But blind freddy can see that he's setting them up to play a style that requires at bare minimum, league-average skills by hand and foot.

Our best 22 are WAY below league average when in poor form and low confidence (like now)...

Even in good form and high confidence (like early last year), our best 22 are still only probably league-average at best for hand and foot skills.

Until we do something about that- it's no use talking about kicking low scores etc.

That's the symptom, not the problem.