Round 13 AFL

[redandwhite]

Geelong Over 39.5 @$9

I don't bet on them very often but I don't rate Sydney. They got lucky when they got Essendon who were staggering to the bye. I think the real Geelong will stand up tonight and prove they aren't a spent force just yet.

You are dreaming

 

[X_box_X]

Sydney OVER 60 points.

Geelong aren't much any more, and Sydney have shown they can rip up average to piss poor teams at home this year. They may not beat Geelong by 90 odd points like they beat Melbourne and the Bulldogs, but the Bulldogs took Geelong to within four goals after a trip back from Darwin on back to back six day breaks, so I don't think there is that much between those two sides.

Geelong do seem to lift for these big games, though, so I might have some insurance on Sydney over 39.5.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Is this the part where I apologise for having an opinion ?

 

[Nothing]

Is this the part where I apologise for having an opinion ?

Have you tested you Z values?

 

[KardiniaPark]

 

[Jammer]

Cats 1 to 39.... $2.85 TAB Sports bet

Swans are 3 and 3 since there 5 zip start.......
I think their demolishion jobs on the also rans make them look a little better than they actually are.
I guess the question is Just how bad were Ess last start or how good were the Swans??

 

[Lensen]

Geelong Over 39.5 @$9

I don't bet on them very often but I don't rate Sydney. They got lucky when they got Essendon who were staggering to the bye. I think the real Geelong will stand up tonight and prove they aren't a spent force just yet.

FWIW, I reckon you're wrong, I don't think Geelong are totally finished but Sydney should be too strong at home.

Given my track record this year, that's probably a good thing for your bet.

 

[jhamilton]

really excited about tonight's match. will the cats come out firing after the week's rest and up their contested footy (which is vital at the SCG)? or will the swans show enough for us to take them seriously as a premiership contender? the unknowns are enough to keep me on the sidelines for the result in this one.

Mummy Returns 1+ goals @ 1.90
GWS lowest scoring team @ 4.50
North lowest scoring team @ 8.50

 

[foxy_dal]

1 unit Jack Over Chapman in SC @ 1.88. Both in great form SC wise (Jack last 4 games av 136 and Chapman 120) but this bet is based on the game being at the SCG. In Chapmans 3 games he has had to travel for his scores are 90, 96 and 107. Jacks last 4 games at home were 150, 152, 93 and 114. Add to this that Sydney are favorites to win I predict Jack to score around 120 to Chapman 100.

YTD: 29-1-20: +9.13 Units

 

[Athomas]

Like the bet KP, I will be all over Geelong tonight (waiting for final team lists).

Will probably take the H2H and maybe even over 15.5. Have taken them for Highest score of the round as well in some doubles.

 

[KardiniaPark]

It's certainly safer taking the 15.5 - $3.55 is a very good price.

 

[Goodesy Boy]

Vegas AFL selections 5-1 since posting on this board.

Sydney line -7.5 (available at tattsbet)
Bulldogs line -18.0

 

[asanque]

Vegas AFL selections 5-1 since posting on this board.

Sydney line -7.5 (available at tattsbet)
Bulldogs line -18.0

Who/what is/are Vegas AFL selections?

Thanks

 

[twarby]

its plays that his model spits out

i prefer it when they swallow

 

[The Prosecutor]

Sydney 1-39 @ $2.25

Sydney to be leading at 1/4 time @ $1.70

Geelong to win last quarter @ $2.10

Jude Bolton most disposals for group 2 @ $4.60

Steve Johnson most goals @ $6.50

 

[KardiniaPark]

I may have been somewhat wrong. The most wrongest that wrong could ever be on wrong street celebrating wrong day. I'm glad I go for GWS. Go Giants!

 

[Lensen]

swans line takers just a bit stiff

 

[Selective Retention]

swans line takers just a bit stiff

Depends how you look at it I guess.

Geelong rolled the dice to try and win the game, they don't care if they lose by 5 points or 11 points or whatever the gap was, so if it wasn't for that fact the ball most probably wouldn't have even been in that area of the ground to begin with.

Perhaps it's just that I can't get my head around it, but that's why I don't play lines unless they look way out. Teams don't care how much they win/lose by generally so your bet has a large element of luck involved in it and I don't see how it's the most efficient way to bet according to mr stats guy in the other thread.

 

[Lensen]

i couldnt agree more

 

[redandwhite]

Collingwood 1-39 @ 2.15

I can't really see this being a huge blowout and I think pies will be too good.

Don't know if I will touch the bulldogs game as I haven't really been following either teams recent form too closely. Would be interested to hear opinions though

 

[yamahamoto]

I actually think lions line is the way to go. Ports was missing their key Defender last week with hartlett went out 3rd quarter. Lions with black back(huge in) and I expect Raines to go with Griffen. Lions defense is better than ports so they can hold dogs defense. This game will be close

 

[happy punter]

Bulldogs -18.5 over Lions @ 1.91 (3 units)

 

[Atavistic]

SportsBet has Redden at $2.05 vs Rockliff in DT. Redden has won this matchup four out of the past six weeks.

I might also get on Wallis vs R Murphy in SC at $1.98.

Also, Goldstein vs Jacobs in DT at $1.62 looks a good bet.

Edit: Actually, Redden has come into $2 in the past 10 minutes.

 

[wcadams88]

Any one else athinking merritt most goals?
Nice $12 on offer

 

[asanque]

Lions +19.5 at 1.92 WIN
Brown most goals at 6.00 LOSS

Edit: Resulted