Game Day Round 23, 2025: Hawks v Demons

[Sixpence]

Have at it.

Is it a "Book our finals berth" or a "Shit the bed" kinda day?

Hopefully the former.

 

[Delecate Des]

HAWKS BY PLENTY JUST BECAUSE WE CAN

 

[wahawk]

I’m looking forward to my 1st game at the G since Sept 2015
Hopefully a good win so I can relax & enjoy it

 

[Atch]

Nash brings the booom!

 

[bigmaxi]

Thanks Sixpence. Reckon we have got this, Dees played flat out last week and hopefully the momentum has died off as they start pondering footy with a new coach and who is staying and who is going. Hoping that creates the distraction that gives us an edge.

 

[earthworms]

win and we make finals. don't over-complicate things hawks.

 

[Max Powers]

Got my attire all prepared for today.

 

[Hungdaddy]

I hope we've exhausted out shit the bed quota for the year. I still think the boys should reflect on that close loss to Adelaide at home for inspiration. Get it done!

 

[Sturty]

Hawks by a LOT.

 

[madhawksfan]

Win and it would be an absolute miracle if we miss finals. Still a mathematical chance at top 4 as well. Everything to play for so no excuses for starting flat or dropping off of intensity at any point.

Dees top 6-8 are still great players but our spread of talent is far greater. Stick to our structures and play smart and we should be far too good. They won’t be able to move the ball as easily as they did against the Western Doormats.

Let’s start well and put them under pressure whenever they have the ball. Smalls will have a big say if we can at worst break even in the middle. Nash to Oliver and Gunston to occupy May.

September beckons, go Hawks!

 

[unitedhawk2]

This is Moving Day in the context of the Top 4.

We're effectively battling with Brisbane, Collingwood and Gold Coast for two spots, with Adelaide and Geelong almost certain to win themselves the double chance. The Giants and Freo can also get to 16 wins if they win out but their percentage is relatively poor, making them extremely unlikely Top 4 candidates.

We have control of Brisbane's fate. If we win both our remaining games, we'll finish above them.

I'm barracking for the Giants at the moment against the Suns, who might get a bit twitchy if they lose today. Port in Adelaide for Hinkley's last game won't be easy for them but I reckon they're the favourites for the third spot because they've also got a gimme game against Essendon pending.

That leaves the Lions, Pies and us for one spot.

Assuming we beat the Lions in Round 24 - have to assume that for the purpose of this exercise because we can't make Top 4 otherwise - I reckon the Pies and us are battling for the last spot. The Pies are 3% or around 5-6 goals ahead of us at present. If we can beat the Dees today by 5 goals and the Crows can beat the Pies by a similar margin, both of which are quite reasonable projections, it'll effectively be a 10-goal turnaround in our head-to-head with the Pies, leaving us with a 'lead' of around 4 goals going into the final round.

The Pies play the Dees next Friday in Round 24, which means we'll know exactly what we need to do against the Lions on Sunday week. As long as the Dees don't get walloped to the tune of 10+ goals by the Pies, we will have Top 4 within touching distance when we run out against the Lions.

Let's get Moving Day started by smashing the Dees and then hope the Crows can do the same to the Pies...

 

[badgrill]

This is Moving Day in the context of the Top 4.

We're effectively battling with Brisbane, Collingwood and Gold Coast for two spots, with Adelaide and Geelong almost certain to win themselves the double chance. The Giants and Freo can also get to 16 wins if they win out but their percentage is relatively poor, making them extremely unlikely Top 4 candidates.

We have control of Brisbane's fate. If we win both our remaining games, we'll finish above them.

I'm barracking for the Giants at the moment against the Suns, who might get a bit twitchy if they lose today. Port in Adelaide for Hinkley's last game won't be easy for them but I reckon they're the favourites for the third spot because they've also got a gimme game against Essendon pending.

That leaves the Lions, Pies and us for one spot.

Assuming we beat the Lions in Round 24 - have to assume that for the purpose of this exercise because we can't make Top 4 otherwise - I reckon the Pies and us are battling for the last spot. The Pies are 3% or around 5-6 goals ahead of us at present. If we can beat the Dees today by 5 goals and the Crows can beat the Pies by a similar margin, both of which are quite reasonable projections, it'll effectively be a 10-goal turnaround in our head-to-head with the Pies, leaving us with a 'lead' of around 4 goals going into the final round.

The Pies play the Dees next Friday in Round 24, which means we'll know exactly what we need to do against the Lions on Sunday week. As long as the Dees don't get walloped to the tune of 10+ goals by the Pies, we will have Top 4 within touching distance when we run out against the Lions.

Let's get Moving Day started by smashing the Dees and then hope the Crows can do the same to the Pies...

Not sure that 3% equals 5-6 goals, though? Isn't it 21 pts (ish) for every 1%?

 

[VandoHawk]

It is simply a must win game.

I hope we come out with intensity and bury them.

 

[Billyc]

This is a final against sub finals opposition. Win it and we play finals. Lose it, given what is at stake, and we probably do not deserve to.

 

[humid hawk]

In: monstering their defence with talls and smalls
Out: kicking it to gawn 5 times a quarter

Let's go!

 

[unitedhawk2]

Not sure that 3% equals 5-6 goals, though? Isn't it 21 pts (ish) for every 1%?

Depends on the For and Against values, which are reasonably similar for the Pies and us at present: Pies 1853-1492 (+361 points), Hawks 1874-1546 (+328).

Would have been more difficult to make statistical projections had there been a couple of hundred points difference between the two sides in either the For or Against columns.

 

[Atch]

Bloody ripper day for it!

 

[Big Hotdog]

Sun is shining

 

[Paul Kersey]

Sun is shining

Yeah very brightly too. Should be a fast track.

 

[SA HAWK]

Win we are a certainty for finals?

Lose and we will have to beat Brisbane next week.

Win both a chance for top 4.

 

[Lando_]

Obviously hope we win but we need a smashing so hopefully the boys will be on. Percentage is always important.

 

[seysearles]

Win we are a certainty for finals?

Lose and we will have to beat Brisbane next week.

Win both a chance for top 4.

Win both and we are a very healthy chance of top 3 and a QF v Geelong. Thats a dream scenario.

 

[Hawkk]

Win both and we are a very healthy chance of top 3 and a QF v Geelong. Thats a dream scenario.

‘When it matters’

 

[Paul Kersey]

Must have mozzed it. Bit of wind and cloudy - feels like light rain on the way too.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

Melksham sub is weird