Round 23

[Ferris_rules]

St Kilda/Adelaide @ 2.40 - 3u

I usually only bet 1-2 units cause I'm a pussy, but I'm pretty confident both will win. St Kilda have made up too much ground in the last 8-10 weeks to fall over now. Adelaide are playing good footy under Bickley and I just can't see Richmond making it 3 in a row going interstate.

I do like this bet a lot, I may have committed the ultimate sin in including a few others in the multi - Pies, cats and Hawks that improve the payout!

Saints is the only query in re: St Nick.

I do like the Crows over 15.5 as someone in here stated, which got me excited too.

Im not a fan though about the talk about Lyon moving to Demons, I just wonder if that could play a role in the mindset of the players.

After all according to the Crows their coaches future played a role in their losses, well so they say.

I do like Pies, hawks and Cats to cover the line.

Without sounding heartless, the death in the Swans "family" could play a role - a negative one that is. R.I.P

Pies and Hawks should roll their opponents.

Would love to hear others thoughts about the Saints'Roos game????

 

[anabac]

Without sounding heartless, the death in the Swans "family" could play a role - a negative one that is. R.I.P
????

I can see the swans coming out all guns blazing actually. Pretty sure they will be very keen to prove their loyalty to one of their teammates and not want to let him down on this sad occasion. Cats coming off the bye might be a bit sluggish too. Once they fire up though and the swans run out of steam, it will be one way traffic. Swans havent won down there for over 10 years either.

Anyway, if you think it makes sense, you can get $12 about Syd/Geel/Geel/Geel quarter by quarter with Centrebet. Wont get better than $8 with any other book or the TAB

 

[Vince Masuka]

Collingwood -16.5 1st qtr/Essendon -16.5 1st qtr
8 units @ 3.69 (Iasbet)

Adelaide -18.5/Saints -5.5/Gold Coast +40.5
4 units @ 7.74 (Iasbet)

 

[KardiniaPark]

I can see the swans coming out all guns blazing actually. Pretty sure they will be very keen to prove their loyalty to one of their teammates and not want to let him down on this sad occasion. Cats coming off the bye might be a bit sluggish too. Once they fire up though and the swans run out of steam, it will be one way traffic. Swans havent won down there for over 10 years either.

Anyway, if you think it makes sense, you can get $12 about Syd/Geel/Geel/Geel quarter by quarter with Centrebet. Wont get better than $8 with any other book or the TAB

Yeah agree to an extent but it can also go the other way and they could find themselves 6 goals down very early.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Whoops

 

[KardiniaPark]

Wh.ch recent performance suggests they are?

Well...a lot of them. They have tried their guts out this year but as good as their kids are they aren't quite there yet. You will also find that West Ciast haven't really put the sword to a lot of the lower teams. They had a big win last start but again Essendons were crippled by injury at half time so inwouldnt read too much into that. Having said that it's not a game I'm interested in. Oh and gws and gc will still be getting the majority of picks in the years to come.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Sorry for the spelling I'm on the phone! You get the gist.

 

[denitofinito]

Well...a lot of them. They have tried their guts out this year but as good as their kids are they aren't quite there yet. You will also find that West Ciast haven't really put the sword to a lot of the lower teams. They had a big win last start but again Essendons were crippled by injury at half time so inwouldnt read too much into that. Having said that it's not a game I'm interested in. Oh and gws and gc will still be getting the majority of picks in the years to come.

Not quite sure which side you are arguing for there, but Im saying that
their recent performances against Geelong and Collingwood suggest that they arent playing for a priority pick and will give West Coast a decent challenge. They seem to match up well against the Eagles and as you pointed out, West Coast haven't been smashing teams (away from home) either so I reckon this game has the potential to be close.

Sorry for the spelling I'm on the phone! You get the gist.

Im shocking when on the phone. Random quotes and typos galore.

 

[Donkson]

Yeah he's agreeing with you.

I think.

 

[Thedeftouch]

Dane Swan Most Disposals Grp 1 @ 2.15 with TAB or Centrebet.

Curious who copied who, but Swan should be odds-on.

Pendles hasn't been keeping up with Swanny since Swanny's return from Arizona. If the game is as one-sided as expected, I don't expect any of the Freo players to get 30+ touches.

Swanny has racked up between 31 - 45 in the 8 games since returning in round 14.

 

[PRoberts14]

Well...a lot of them. They have tried their guts out this year but as good as their kids are they aren't quite there yet. You will also find that West Ciast haven't really put the sword to a lot of the lower teams. They had a big win last start but again Essendons were crippled by injury at half time so inwouldnt read too much into that. Having said that it's not a game I'm interested in. Oh and gws and gc will still be getting the majority of picks in the years to come.

so these are west coast away game wins AVG
in adel 28.5pts (port.A/Adel)
Docklands is 42 pts (Carlton/ Melb)
subiaco 1pt (freo)

on that you would think they have enough to win by 22pts against brisbane and maybe melb is not the best bet but they have had carlton, geelong, west coast in there last 4 and nearly beat richmond. though they may have lost sylvia and davey there mcg record is great. 5 out there 7 wins there at an avg margin of 51.2pts. they also smashed g.c last time. plus that half time margin is worth it because its happened bout nine times this year.

 

[5 Bucks]

I don't expect any of the Freo players to get 30+ touches.

Barlow will.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Yeah he's agreeing with you.

I think.

I'm a mystery wrapped in an enigma! Maybe I quoted the wrong thing. Massive fail again.

 

[Thedeftouch]

Lions +21.5. Daniel Kerr out for West Coast, and Cox will not dominate the ruck against Leuenberger. I see this as a very tight contest at the Gabba.

 

[Thedeftouch]

Barlow will.

Feel free to take him on, I'll be laying at market rates all day on Betfair

 

[5 Bucks]

$7 for Franklin to be the highest DT scorer in the group of 8 forwards on Sportingbet. Butcher can kick 6 against the undermanned Bulldogs defense, so Buddy should be able to at least match that, plus he'll continue to rack up 20 disposals like always.

 

[Lensen]

Most Goals tonight:
0.5 units Bradley @ $34 (Centrebet, $11.64)

 

[twarby]

Barlow will.

the most Barlow has ever got in his career is 34

Swan will have that in 3 quarters tonight

 

[KardiniaPark]

@5bucks - I thought Cloke looked the one. They will get a ridiculous amount of inside 50's against the worst team Freo has put out for many years. He's been clunking everything of late and don't see why he cant get 20+ and 6-7 goals. Buddy is always a chance but im willing to take him on this week.

 

[twarby]

there are 3-4 genuine contenders for that group this week

 

[TheNextBigThing]

Dane Swan Most Disposals Grp 1 @ 2.15 with TAB or Centrebet.

Curious who copied who, but Swan should be odds-on.

Pendles hasn't been keeping up with Swanny since Swanny's return from Arizona. If the game is as one-sided as expected, I don't expect any of the Freo players to get 30+ touches.

Swanny has racked up between 31 - 45 in the 8 games since returning in round 14.

Into $2.05 with centrebet now, so I have taken the $2.15 Swan with the TAB, I thought he would have been $1.90 at best

 

[Thedeftouch]

I think he is a bit longer with the books because he is starting on the interchange, but I expect him to play normal minutes.

 

[nagrom21]

Beams FGS

what do we think?

 

[Nothing]

@5bucks - I thought Cloke looked the one. They will get a ridiculous amount of inside 50's against the worst team Freo has put out for many years. He's been clunking everything of late and don't see why he cant get 20+ and 6-7 goals. Buddy is always a chance but im willing to take him on this week.

Cloke will be teamed up by Mcpharlin who has consistently done a job on key forwards. I'd be willing to fade Cloke on that alone. Now if there is a small fwd from Collingwood in the group, there's some money

 

[KardiniaPark]

there are 3-4 genuine contenders for that group this week

Thanks Ace