Round 23

[Borgsta]

If you give them absolutely no chance why don't you put your entire bankroll on Essendon at $1.03?

Because Port have a chance of beating them, albeit small. It's whether it's a 1% chance or an 8-10% chance that determines whether Port are "value" at $16-21.

It's a 1% chance.

 

[Ferris_rules]

If I was going to place my entire bankroll on one thing it would be StK +39.5 @ 1.11 or the Kangas +55.5 @ 1.08.

Oh dear please dont do bank bets - I have done it before and the heart pounds which kick mark handball goal and point!

But I did like your call for Dons 1-39 instead of backing Port.

Last week i considered the Pies 1-39, shoulda, woulda coulda !

I think its great that we can all agree and disagree!

 

[TurboBreuster]

Oh dear please dont do bank bets - I have done it before and the heart pounds which kick mark handball goal and point!

I do not like bankroll bets either and have never done one. I was just trying to prove a point.

 

[Lensen]

I do not like bankroll bets either and have never done one. I was just trying to prove a point.

I was only saying that if they were absolutely 100% certain to win, like you intimated with not giving Port "any chance" to win, then there'd be no issue with putting the whole bankroll on it. I'd do it in a heartbeat for an actual 100% chance but not where there is any risk

 

[Borgsta]

It's sport Lenny nothing is ever a 100% certainty. If it was sports betting wouldn't exist.

Who knows there might be an earthquake that hits the Essendon change rooms just before the match and makes half of them ineligible for the match. Hopefully Zakarakis is one of them (see futures thread, this is clearly a joke and I dont wish it to happen)

 

[Lensen]

It's sport Lenny nothing is ever a 100% certainty. If it was sports betting wouldn't exist.

Who knows there might be an earthquake that hits the Essendon change rooms just before the match and makes half of them ineligible for the match. Hopefully Zakarakis is one of them (see futures thread, this is clearly a joke and I dont wish it to happen)

That was kind of my point. For an actual 100% chance - i.e. an arb - I'd put everthing I've got on it, but not where there is any risk

 

[TurboBreuster]

I was only saying that if they were absolutely 100% certain to win, like you intimated with not giving Port "any chance" to win, then there'd be no issue with putting the whole bankroll on it. I'd do it in a heartbeat for an actual 100% chance but not where there is any risk

With reflection maybe I will change it to a 99% chance which does suggest value at 1.03 odds. However I would never place all of my bankroll on something even if it was a 'sure thing'.

 

[Ferris_rules]

Having had 3 bank bets in my punting career to date I would never recommend it to anyone.

Sure they all came off, however its a reflection of my poor punting at the time then the fact I won.

For the record, two of the bets were "safe" the teams won by 5+ goals however the third was a 10 point game. I dont need to tell you, you only need to screw one of these bets and your career is over.

I have had big bets again since but none of the magnitude of a bank bet.

I will add that this year I was on my knees down to just 35% of my bank and had to literally crawl on my knees to get back into having a profit margin.

What really jacks me off though is why I couldnt do this when I am at 100% and increase my bank to 165% !

I am improving my craft, but its taking time.

One thing I can add though the games that offer poor odds such as the $1.01 etc are just not worth placing in a multi.

The bookies will clean up in the long run I do anticipate an odd result this week and next week too.

Probably the only guarantee a team will put up a strong performance are those fighting for the 8. Then again there is Freo.

Lol I bet strongly against them last round and took the Roos at 40+, I had more faith in the Dockers choking badly then the Roos winning by that margin!

 

[Ferris_rules]

That was kind of my point. For an actual 100% chance - i.e. an arb - I'd put everthing I've got on it, but not where there is any risk

the other option is to hedge during a game.

Mind you I notice a lot the odds hardly fluctuate when teams are at big odds to win a game.

Last week the Swans I think peaked at about $3.50 during the second qtr and regretfully I didnt hedge my bet for risk free profit.

If you understand the nuances of cricket it can be a great game to hedge as it fluctuates substantially with each wicket or boundary.

oh and little bit of interest if you were to bet all the outsiders in a multi to win

at the TAB it equates to $1872660.53

geez if they allowed you to have this bet, I would place a dollar each week.lol

Out of curiosity for those that have kept records has all 8 outsiders ever won????

 

[PRoberts14]

Collingwood & Melbourne 37+ Halftime @$5.13.

that is def a nice lil one for the round

 

[5 Bucks]

I will add that this year I was on my knees down to just 35% of my bank and had to literally crawl on my knees to get back into having a profit margin.

Do you know what literally means? If so, and what you said is correct, how does crawling on one's knees make one have superior betting habits?

 

[Ferris_rules]

Do you know what literally means? If so, and what you said is correct, how does crawling on one's knees make one have superior betting habits?

hmmm I never said I had superior betting habits

In fact some of my betting is very poor and substandard.

99% of the time I like to discuss my losses as I learn more from them than the wins.

I can say comfortably I took a pounding when Goodes cost the Swans the game against the Dons a few weeks back. Or when the Crows lost to the Demons was the biggest lost I had this season.

Even after three years of punting Im still learning.

Im getting better and my profit margin reflects that.

I just need to curb some bets, bet sizes and exotic bets, which for the most part I have.

I need to limit my betting to just AFL, cricket and soccer. Which I have.

If there are loses I have this weekend, I will focus on them and not discuss my wins.

It doesnt bother me. I am only interested in my profit margin that I alone know!

 

[JuddyBuddy]

St Kilda/Adelaide @ 2.40 - 3u

I usually only bet 1-2 units cause I'm a pussy, but I'm pretty confident both will win. St Kilda have made up too much ground in the last 8-10 weeks to fall over now. Adelaide are playing good footy under Bickley and I just can't see Richmond making it 3 in a row going interstate.

 

[Mr Crow!]

What do you guys think of:

Fremantle +39.5 vs. Collingwood @ $4.50?

 

[The Royal Sampler]

I think the Pies will have gotten a roasting after playing dead for more than a quarter against the Lions. I think a margin around double that is far more likely.

 

[duncs]

Have you seen the list of outs for Freo? Hard to see them kicking many goals or running with the pies midfield, think the Pies by a lot is the most likely outcome

 

[KardiniaPark]

What do you guys think of:

Fremantle +39.5 vs. Collingwood @ $4.50?

At Quarter time? For sure...

 

[PRoberts14]

i think the value bets this week are
pies half time margin 37 + 1.96
west coast line -21.5pts and them for the win at 1.30. lions are after priority.
crows win 1.38 or tri bet them or even line. they are flying
dees are down hill skiers so up to the line or for 3.30 half time margin 37+
port at the line is not that bad even though the dons are playing for finals

 

[KardiniaPark]

Where did you get $3.30?

 

[Donkson]

lions are after priority.

what? no.

 

[KardiniaPark]

what? no.

 

[denitofinito]

Wh.ch recent performance suggests they are?

 

[GoodesStuff]

Wh.ch recent performance suggests they are?

I'm glad you quoted acecordy's insightful post again

 

[denitofinito]

I'm glad you quoted acecordy's insightful post again

Should probably have mentioned something about saints are morals and free moneyz mark my words!!!11

 

[Ron]

Where did you get $3.30?

Sportsbet. Pretty decent bet too.