Autopsy Round 4, 2023: Hawks go home at half time v Cats

[Denver Day Lewis]

Sometimes the coach will leave players in losing positions as a learning experience

LOL. The classic dope-a-rope tactic.

 

[SJT76]

I don’t think Sam is coaching for results, he’s coaching for learning. Not the same as ranking - he’d absolutely rather win than lose, but he’d rather lose and learn than win without learning.

I think this explains part of the third quarter turnarounds - we go into the match with a simple “plan A” to focus on. He’s got it right 3/4 times (only against the Swans did we not play the 1st quarter better than the opposition). But we stick with it with only minor tinkering throughout the match, and good opposition adjust.

It’s not as bad as it seems.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

What was your pre-season prediction?

This place was up in arms when people in the media suggested we'd finish last, especially after Mitchell made his "we'll surprise a few" comments.

The majority on here thought we'd be competitive and not finish bottom four.

 

[Billyc]

Not sure exactly what you mean by no one contemplated this?

I find this an almost unfathomable comment, considering most people here thought the spoon was a very real possibility and some people had already declared we were tanking for Reid before a ball was bounced.

Our first month has had plenty of ups and downs, but people are quite clearly hung up on the scoreboard and scoreboard alone.

We’re the youngest side in the comp, playing without a key forward, and that’s identifiable in both the scoreboard outcomes and stats.

We were 18th for Centre Clearances, Total clearances, and 16th for stoppage clearances in 2022. We’ve played the two grand finalists and we’re 5th for centre clearances, 12th for total clearances and 14th for stoppage clearances. That’s improvement across the board where we wanted it the most.

Where we are breaking down is forward of centre with our cohesion and connection which is no great surprise as this is something the coaches spoke of even before Lewis went down.

In 2022 we 14th for inside 50’s but were 5th for goal efficiency and 3rd for Goal Accurracy. Without Lewis and Gunston we’re 18th for inside 50’s, Goal efficiency and Goal accuracy.

This is despite improving in other key metrics of ball use. We were 14th for kicks in 2022 and 13th for marks, while in 2023 were 4th for kicks and 4th for marks. So we’re winning clearances, we’re getting the ball in our hands and we’re possessing it, but we’re struggling to make much use of it.

We’re really not going as badly as the scoreboard has made out.

I don't recall seeing predictions that we'd be uncompetitive and thumped every week - but happy to be corrected if those accurate predictions were made. My recollection was most taking issue with media predictions of the wooden spoon. I thought we'd be bottom 4, but not this bad.

You can say ignore the scoreboard, but when you're sitting on a percentage of 52% after a month of footy, all the clearance stats you can muster are hard to polish up how things are tracking. We aren't just getting beaten - we're getting absolutely thrashed, and uncompetitive for large chunks of games.

 

[PenAndPaper]

I don't recall seeing predictions that we'd be uncompetitive and thumped every week - but happy to be corrected if those accurate predictions were made. My recollection was most taking issue with media predictions of the wooden spoon. I thought we'd be bottom 4, but not this bad.

You can say ignore the scoreboard, but when you're sitting on a percentage of 52% after a month of footy, all the clearance stats you can muster are hard to polish up how things are tracking. We aren't just getting beaten - we're getting absolutely thrashed, and uncompetitive for large chunks of games.

While I understand our percentage is shocking and we haven't played great, we have played last year's grand finalists in the first 4 games. Sure we played extremely poor against Essendon in RD 1 but we then beat North. I think we need to just have a few more weeks before we can really identify how poorly/well we are playing.

 

[Billyc]

While I understand our percentage is shocking and we haven't played great, we have played last year's grand finalists in the first 4 games. Sure we played extremely poor against Essendon in RD 1 but we then beat North. I think we need to just have a few more weeks before we can really identify how poorly/well we are playing.

Also played last year's wooden spooner (missing their two best mids) if we're looking at it from quality of opposition. The percentage without that game would be very grim. I don't think the next few weeks determine how poorly we have played in the last month: the last month does. It's been there to see. What the next few weeks will show is how much is being learnt and whether we improve. We have some average sides coming up in Giants, Adelaide and Freo, which should all be winnable for where we would hope to be. At the very least, we'd expect to be competitive in those games.

 

[Beandip]

This place was up in arms when people in the media suggested we'd finish last, especially after Mitchell made his "we'll surprise a few" comments.

The majority on here thought we'd be competitive and not finish bottom four.

Everyone just assumed it was going to be a positive surprise

 

[The hands of stone]

What was your pre-season prediction?

I didnt really do or take pre season predictions seriously tbh .

My expectations were that we would lose a lot of games , have large form fluctuations from game to game and in game.
I expected regression before progression comes . Because everything in building teams , change and coaching suggests thats what happens.

I based all of this on experience of other rebuilds and being involved in high performance sport coaching .

Everything the club has done and communicated indicates that .
Winning 6 games would be a very decent result with all of the above , more realistically probably 4 . Maybe we dont get there .

Like I say people wanted young players and a change of game style and plan .
Well its here now , call it a rebuild or whatever anyone wants .
People just dont have the actual patience for it and the reaction 4 games in shows that .

 

[PenAndPaper]

Also played last year's wooden spooner (missing their two best mids) if we're looking at it from quality of opposition. The percentage without that game would be very grim. I don't think the next few weeks determine how poorly we have played in the last month: the last month does. It's been there to see. What the next few weeks will show is how much is being learnt and whether we improve. We have some average sides coming up in Giants, Adelaide and Freo, which should all be winnable for where we would hope to be. At the very least, we'd expect to be competitive in those games.

We have also been projected as this year's spooner and lost our two most experienced mids in the off season and missed our only genuine key forward on our list for all the games.

I just don't think the sky is falling as bad as some suggest.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I don't recall seeing predictions that we'd be uncompetitive and thumped every week - but happy to be corrected if those accurate predictions were made. My recollection was most taking issue with media predictions of the wooden spoon. I thought we'd be bottom 4, but not this bad.

You can say ignore the scoreboard, but when you're sitting on a percentage of 52% after a month of footy, all the clearance stats you can muster are hard to polish up how things are tracking. We aren't just getting beaten - we're getting absolutely thrashed, and uncompetitive for large chunks of games.

We haven’t been uncompetitive though. We had Geelong’s measure early on Monday, same with Bombers and we hung wit the Swans for a quarter and half.

What we have been prone to is complete lapses and breakdowns within periods of games, while also being far more competitive in the middle which Sam himself has also touched on.

Sure there was a bunch of people taking offense at the claims we’d win the spoon or not win a game, but as much as we’re not banking wins we’re also not locked into last just yet either.

What was plain to see, and reiterated by both Sam and Rob McCartney over the summer was that this year wouldn’t be about wins particularly early in the year, it would be about development and building cohesion - and we’re most definitely seeing that, even with the disappointing numbers forward of centre.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

We haven’t been uncompetitive though. We had Geelong’s measure early on Monday, same with Bombers and we hung wit the Swans for a quarter and half.

What we have been prone to is complete lapses and breakdowns within periods of games, while also being far more competitive in the middle which Sam himself has also touched on.

Sure there was a bunch of people taking offense at the claims we’d win the spoon or not win a game, but as much as we’re not banking wins we’re also not locked into last just yet either.

What was plain to see, and reiterated by both Sam and Rob McCartney over the summer was that this year wouldn’t be about wins particularly early in the year, it would be about development and building cohesion - and we’re most definitely seeing that, even with the disappointing numbers forward of centre.

We lost those games by 59, 81 and 82 points. That is uncompetitive. Unfortunately games are played across four quarters, so playing well for 15 minutes of one quarter, but losing by those margins still equals being uncompetitive.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

We lost those games by 59, 81 and 82 points. That is uncompetitive. Unfortunately games are played across four quarters, so playing well for 15 minutes of one quarter, but losing by those margins still equals being uncompetitive.

This is just your typical worse case scenario bullshit that you love to peddle.
You can’t ignore the context of the actual game and only focus on the final score to make a far-reaching comment of the side being uncompetitive when it clearly was competitive for periods within a game.

 

[Mercy Seat]

I don't recall seeing predictions that we'd be uncompetitive and thumped every week - but happy to be corrected if those accurate predictions were made. My recollection was most taking issue with media predictions of the wooden spoon. I thought we'd be bottom 4, but not this bad.

You can say ignore the scoreboard, but when you're sitting on a percentage of 52% after a month of footy, all the clearance stats you can muster are hard to polish up how things are tracking. We aren't just getting beaten - we're getting absolutely thrashed, and uncompetitive for large chunks of games.

I was pretty consistent all off season that with the dearth of leadership, and by relying on a midfield with average experience of around 20 games, we’d be in for some absolute beltings, and there were plenty who seemed to agree with me.

That said, I’m not sure I was expecting this poor. We’ve played statistically a couple of worst quarters historically ever played in an AFL game, and have had our worst start to a season in 75 years. It’s not great. But I can see green shoots here and there, which is all we can really hold onto for now.

 

[The hands of stone]

We lost those games by 59, 81 and 82 points. That is uncompetitive. Unfortunately games are played across four quarters, so playing well for 15 minutes of one quarter, but losing by those margins still equals being uncompetitive.

If you view the games by final margin , yes .
But if you do that you will be frustrated over the next few seasons while we develop, but you probably were already .

Little progressions are wins and this is mostly what the coaches will be working on .
Things like winning a 1/4 , a stat or a metric are a win for us .

Once that comes together overtime being competitive on the scoreboard and then wins will come .

 

[grumbleguts]

We lost those games by 59, 81 and 82 points. That is uncompetitive. Unfortunately games are played across four quarters, so playing well for 15 minutes of one quarter, but losing by those margins still equals being uncompetitive.

Which of the two colours is this one? Black or White.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

This is just your typical worse case scenario bullshit that you love to peddle.
You can’t ignore the context of the actual game and only focus on the final score to make a far-reaching comment of the side being uncompetitive when it clearly was competitive for periods within a game.

Look, both you and The Hands of Stone are right in that I'm looking at the games on the whole, and not just isolating the 15 minutes of solid footy at the expense of the rest of what happened in the games.

Essendon kicked 9 goals in a row. They kicked 16.9 to our 5.6 after quarter time.

Sydney piled on 13 goals in a row against us and we were never in that game.

Geelong kicked 15.10 to 1.3 in a half of football against us.

Playing well and being competitive for small periods is nice and is hopefully a sign of things to come. But the rest of the game we were completely uncompetitive, and the ease in which all three teams dominated us reflects how completely uncompetitive we were. That's not "bullshit" worst case scenario, nor is it ignoring the context of anything.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

If you view the games by final margin , yes .
But if you do that you will be frustrated over the next few seasons while we develop, but you probably were already .

Little progressions are wins and this is mostly what the coaches will be working on .
Things like winning a 1/4 , a stat or a metric are a win for us .

Once that comes together overtime being competitive on the scoreboard and then wins will come .

Yes we need to take the little wins at this point, and I understand what you're saying.

For me the frustration comes from how easily we were dominated, and not the losses themselves. Ironically it's the actual context of the game (that I've apparently ignored) that is the cause of the frustration.

 

[CHUBBSS]

Far too much impatience of what is going to be pure developmental season that we bank some good picks and get some games into a team that is going to build for the next period. I get the same but then remember we are a team of 18-22 year olds basically with a very poor senior brigade to lead the way so the only way to work through that is with games played.

Sometimes I think we are left to our own devices in quarters to see how the players will respond, once again a learning experience and have no problems watching it as long as we see the gradual improvement and we are.

I think we are placing an enormous amount of responsibility on day, Moore and jai, even Nash and it is working, sometimes… we will see the rewards of this soon but patience is a virtue

 

[MasterSamurai]

Sicily, breust, Wingard, Frost, Hardwick, worpel, Moore, scrimshaw, jiath, Impey, Amon, Morrison. More than capable of stemming the flow and have played enough footy to not allow to be trampled upon. 14 goal losses cannot be the norm, no ******* way, Sam needs to roll up the sleeves a little bit more on match days along with his cohorts. Losses are ok, no problems there, but I can't believe there are posters who think there's " nothing to see here" after an awful four weeks.

 

[Lawsy]

We lost those games by 59, 81 and 82 points. That is uncompetitive. Unfortunately games are played across four quarters, so playing well for 15 minutes of one quarter, but losing by those margins still equals being uncompetitive.

Being competitive isn't always reflective of the score. Yes, we've lost badly, but we were competitive for more than 15 minutes except the Sydney game.

Yes, against Geelong in the 2nd half, we were uncompetitive, the last quarter vs the Scum last year, uncompetitive, R1 this year for the 3rd quarter, uncompetitive but for most parts of the game we were a kick or two either way of breaking even or winning the quarter.

We've seen games where a team is down by 3 goals, for most of the game, competitive for 3 quarters, but not able to get closer, and then have 5 kicked on them in the last and lose by 50. That last quarter doesn't indicate a non competitive game, just one team got a hold of the other.

 

[Hodginator]

 

[TheFourPillars]

They got wind of it getting a worse outcome and pulled stumps

 

[Judd2Sewell]

They got wind of it getting a worse outcome and pulled stumps

There's just no way that tackle isn't worse than Day's.

 

[Sixpence]

Apparently, we're only arguing the impact, so will still be 1 match. That's ****ed! It was a perfectly fine tackle.

 

[peetoo]

So they got an inside word did they? Some transparent process

Or Is it to make the reaming they give hawthorn less controversial?